Football tips 1st April

Over 3.5 goals
DE Bund 2 Karlsruhe vs Union Berlim 2pts at 2/1 (William Hill, 9/5 Sporting Bet) Loss 2pts

To win to nil
ES Segunda Cordobna vs Hercules 1pt Cordoba to win to nil at 23/10 (Paddy Power, 21/10 Will Hill, Bet365) Loss 1pt

Corners handicap
ES La Liga Ath Madrid vs Getafe 1.5pts Getafe +4 to win corners handicap at 5/6 (Bet365) Loss 1.5pts
It Serie A Fiorentina vs Chievo 1pt Fiorentina -2 to win corners hnadicap at 5/6 (Bet365) W profut 0.83pts

Total loss : -3.67pts

A frustrating set of results as Hercules grabbed an 81st minute goal and Getafe started badly but recovered to draw the corners handicap.  Somehow, seeing a corners handicap draw is amongst my most annoying of losses.

Racing Selections 31st March

Stratford
1415 Dark Spirit 5/1 - 1Pt Win -1PT
1450 Mon Chevalier - 7/2 - 2Pt Win - 2PTS
1520 Hibiki 9/4 - 2Pt Win -2PTS - 2PTS
1555 Trip The Light 9/1 - 1Pt e/w - 2PTS
1625 Themanfromfraam13/2 - 1Pt e/w +1.625 PTS
1700 Time For Spring 6/3 - 3Pt Win - 3PTS
1735 Kings Lad 7/2 - 2Pt Win -2PTS
Meeting total: -10.375 PTS

Uttoxeter
1355 An Capall Mor 7/1 - 1Pt e/w +8.4PTS
1430 Naughtyatiz 5/1 - 2pt Win - 2PTS
1505 Oscars Secret 7/11Pt e/w +1.4PTS
1540 Tonic Mellysse - 1/5 - No Bet
1610 Fenatara 7/2 - 2Pt Win -2PTS
1645 Westlin Winds 10/1 - 1Pt e/w +2PTS
1715 Move Along 10/1 - 1Pt e/w +2.8PTS (OneBet longshot Fairey Delta 20/1 0.5Pts e/w +15PTS)
1745 Pistol Basc 10/1 1Pt e/w - 2PTS
Meeting total: +23.6PTS

Meydan (UAE)
1.30 Nieshan 3/1 2 Pt Win - 2PTS
2.10 African Story 7/4 NAP 3 Pt Win +5.25PTS
2.45 Opinion Poll 11/4 2 Pt Win +5.5PTS
3.25 Mickdaam 7/1 2 Pt Win (OneBet Longshot Falls of Lora 20/1 0.5Pts e/w) - 3PTS
4.00 Addictive Dream 10/1 1 Pt e/w  -2PTS
4.35 Krypton Factor 10/1 1Pt e/w +12.5PTS
5.25 Mutahdee 13/2 1pt e/w +1.62PTS
6.00 Beaten Up 4/1 - 1Pt Win -1PT
6.40 Smart Falcon 6/1 - 1pt Win -1PT Capponi 14/1 1 Pt e/w +3.66PTS
Meeting total:+19.28PTS


Daily Total : +32.755 PTS

Football tips March 31st

Both teams to score - Yes
Eng Lg2 Oxford vs Morecambe 2pts at 11/10 (Bet365, 21/20 William Hill) Won Profit 2.2pts
Eng Conf Mansfield vs Ebbsfleet 1.5pts at 4/5 (Bet365, 8/11 Paddy Power, Coral) Loss 1.5pts
Scots Div3 Elgin vs Stranraer 2.5pts at at 1/2 (Various) W Profit 1.25pts
SP La Liga Barcelona vs Bilbao 1.5pts at 11/10 (Bet365, 20/19 BWin)

Over 2.5 goals
Eng Prem Wolves vs Bolton 2pts at 19/20 (Bet365, BetVictor) W Profit 1.9pts

Under 2.5 goals
IT Serie B Sampdoria vs Nocerina 2pts at 3/4 (Bet Victor, bwin, 188Bet) W Profit 1.5pts

Over 3.5 goals
Scots Div 2 Dumbarton vs Forfar 1pt at 6/4 (Paddy Power, Sporting Bet) Loss 1pt
Eng Div 1 Carlisle vs Huddersfield 1pt at 23/10 (SportingBet, 11/5 various) Loss 1pt
Scots Div 2 Arborath vs Brechin 1.5pts at 15/8 (Paddy Power, 13/8 various) W Profit 2.81pts


Half time score
Eng Champ Hull vs Coventry 1pt 0-0 at 17/11 (Bwin, 6/4 various) Loss 1pt

To win to nil
DE Bund 2 Munich 1860 vs Hansa Rostock Munich to win to nil 1pt at 11/5 (Bluesq, 888 Sport) Loss 1pt
Eng Prem Man City vs Sunderland Man City to win to nil at Evens (Ladbrokes, 10/11 various) Loss 1pt

Highest scoring half
Sctos Div 3 Elgin vs Stranraer 1st half highest scoring at 11/5 (Paddy Power, Sporting Bet) Loss 1pt

Corners handicap
Eng Prem Wigan vs Stoke Wigan -2 to win handicap 2pts at 21/20 (Bet365, Evens Skybet) W Profit 2.10pts
DE Bund Hertha vs Wolfsburg Wolfsburg +1 to win handicap 1.5pts at 5/6 (Bet365) Loss 1.5pts


Total profit: 1.25pts

Racing Selections - 30th March

Wetherby
14.10 Absinthe 1/4 - No Bet WON
14.40 Global Flyer 11/2 - 1Pt Win WON +5.5PTS
15.15 Winning Habit 5/4 - 3PT Win -3PTS
15.50 Border Reiver 11/2 - 1PT Win -1PT
16.20 Lady Anne Nevill 10/1 - 1Pt e/w -2PTS
16.55 Moment of Madness 10/3 - 2Pt Win -2PTS
17.25 Brassick 9/4 - 2Pt Win WON +4.5PTS

Meeting Total:+2PTS

Newcastle
14.30 Crowning Jewel - 8/11 - NAP 3 Pt Win WON +2.18Pts
15.00 Prince Tam Eve - 3Pt Win -3Pts - 3PTS
15.35 The Wayward Lord 10/3 - 2Pt Win NR Rep Miss Abbey 6/1 2Pt Win WON+12PTS
16.10 Playing The Field - 13/8 - 2Pt Win -2PTS
16.40 Stormion 5/2 - 2Pt Win -2PTS
17.15 Harris Hawk 2/1 - 2Pt Win WON +4PTS
17.45 Cool Baranca 8/1 - 1pt e/w 2nd +1.75PTS

Meeting Total: +12.93PTS


Lingfield
14.20 Quinsman Eve - Treble with Daniel Thomas & Red Hand - 5/1 - 3Pt Win -3PTS
14.50 Daniel Thomas - 5/6
15.25 Count Cepranot 11/2 - 1Pt Win - 1PT
16.00 Red Hand 4/6
16.30 Twinkled 4/1 - 2Pt Win -2PTS
17.05 Galician 11/10 - 3Pt Win -3PTS
17.35 Superplex 2/1 - 2Pt Win -2PTS
Meeting Total: -12PTS


Well the decision to put some selections up for the AW at Lingfield backfired as it swallowed up all our profit from Newcastle ! Well a small profit of 2.93PTS for the day is better than nothing.

Racing Selections 29th March

Newcastle

2.10 Hurraboru 3/1 2Pt Win (OneBet Longshot Encore Un Fois 28/1 0.5Pt e/w) -3Pts

2.40 Transact 3/1 2Pt Win - 2Pts

3.10 Ballade De La Mer 9/4 2 point win -2Pts

3.45 Flying Squad 10/3 -2Pt Win  -2Pts

4.20 Urban Kode 9/1 1 Pt e/w +1.25Pts

4.50 Rolecarr 9/2 1 point win -1Pt

5.25 Delightfully 14/1 1 point EW  -2PTs

Meeting total: -10.75Pts

Ffos Las

2.20 Keep Kicking 11/4 3Pt Win -3Pts

2.50 Mission Complete 4/1 2 Pt Win -2Pts

3.25 Fleur De Vassy 4/1 2 Pt Win -2Pts

4.00 Harouet 5/2 NAP 3 point win -3Pts

4.30 Lava Lamp 7/1 1.5 Pts e/w  +12.6Pts

5.05 Rumbury Grey 7/4 NB 3 point win +5.25Pts

5.35 Master Cynk 15/2 1Pt e/w NR

Meeting total: +10.85


Daily Total +0.10.... Well it was a very frustrating day as we only managed to land 2 winners and 1 e/w, but it just shows you that if you find the value you only need a few winners to get you in the + figures for the day.

Player betting - How to back.......Padraig Harrington

Tip
0.2pts SELL Padraig Harrington at 40 (Spreadex)

New to spread betting?  Check my guide here http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/p/spread-betting-guide.html
Shell Houston outright tips http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/03/shell-houston-open-tips.html
Shell Houston recent form guide http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/03/shell-houston-open-recent-form-guide.html

With the myriad of betting options available for each golfer in each tournament, it is sometimes prudent to consider different ways other than a straight outright tournament bet in backing an individual before the tournament commences.

This week, we look at Padraig Harrington, a player who is either ready to win again or not able to put 4 rounds together, depending on your outlook.  Harrington is trying to bed a new swing in and there are clear signs of improvement.  However, an EW bet this week is a leap of faith as Harrington has nothing better than a 7th place in his appearances to date in 2012.

The chart below shows Harrington's finishes in the last 15 months. 70 is the default for missed cuts or finishes above 70th, in line with the upper score limit with Spreadex

15 months and 30 tournaments then, with a single top 3 in the event he was defending in Asia and 6 further top 10 finishes.  Hardly inspiring.

Yet, despite this, Harrington is priced up at 50/1 this week.  There is no way I could justify or advise a place bet on Harrington this week from looking at this profile.  50/1 = 12.5/1 for a place finish.  Harrington needs to place once every 12 or so tournaments for this bet to be cost neutral.  Are you backing he gets past Lee, Phil, Steve, Keegan and all the other top players this week?  

This view is of course a little one dimensional.  So, let's glance at Harrington's tournament form.

2011	2010	2009	2008	2007	2006
8	40	26	26	24	32

This looks a little more promising.  Harrington has played 6 years straight and has a worst finish of 40th, with his best PGA finish of 2011 being an 8th here last year.  

Finally, let's consider Harrington's recent GIR record, as this is the single biggest factor this week (usually).  

Weeknum	6	7	9	11
GIR ranking	75	56	123	45

Not much to be excited about here either.  Harrington's 45th in greens hit last time out is an improvement however.  Also, driving accuracy is much less a factor here and that can only help Harrington, who finished 5th in greens in 2011, but 109th in accuracy.  

So, we have a player who has scratchy form and a poor conversion rate, but clear consistency on this course without producing anything explosive.  So, how to bet?

Let's look at the headline odds available for Harrington this week.

To win : 50/1.  Already discounted

Place only 12/1.  Already discounted

1st round leader 55/1.  Some merits.  9th after round 1 here in 2011 and 1st in round 1 last time out.  In addition, 5th after round 1 of the Volvo Golf Champions event earlier this year, plus a 4th at the Barclays in 2011 and 2nd in the 2011 Season opener in Abu Dhabi.  Still hardly irresistible, but apparently better than the outright bet.

Top 10 finish 5/1.  This has landed 7 out of 30 times, including here last year.  In cold stats, that is 3.29/1.  So, value on the face of things.  Certainly, this has more merit than any other outright bet and with a little more consistency this year, this looks OK.

Top 20 finish 2/1.  Has landed 10 out of 30 times, which is 2/1.  Top 10 clearly the better value shout.

Spreadex sell at 40.  This bet I like.  This would have at worst broken even in each of the last 6 years here.  In addition, an improving Harrington would have yielded a return in 9 of his last 14 events, with an average finishing position of 32nd.  .

In play bet.  This has been a terrible bet for Harrington in recent weeks and months.  Harrington has been an average of 18th at halfway this season, versus 31st average at the end of the tournament.  There is no benefit in waiting to see how Padraig starts before getting on board, because the value will disappear and the disappointment is more likely than the in-play position would seem.

Betfair outright bet.  Applying the same logic as above, I would not discourage an outright bet before the off with Betfair, with the proviso being that you get out before round 3 to make it a value proposition.  As mentioned, Harrington has averaged 18th at halfway.  That includes 2 second places at the halfway stage this year.  Backing Harrington before the off and then at least recouping your stake before the 3rd round has definite merits.  Aside from the limited field season opening Volvo golf Champions event, Harrington has not ranked in the top 40 scores in any tournament for round 3 this year.  

If you want to back Harrington, hopefully the above synopsis gives you an idea of how best to get him onside.  In short, a Spreadex sell bet, top 10 bet or Betfair outright bet offset before round 3 appears the clear value choice.

Regards

Dave

Racing Selections -28th March

Taunton

2.10 Rifleman 3/1 -  2Pt Win - 2Pts

2.40 Arab League - No Bet

3.10 Bay Central 2/1 - 2Pt Win -2Pts

3.40 Woodlark Island 13/8 - 2.5Pts Win -2.5Pts 

4.10 Caravel 11/4  - 2Pt Win +5.5Pts

4.40 Thunder Child 6/5 - 3Pt Win  -3Pts

5.10 The Wee Lass 5/1 -1Pt Win -2Pts
Meeting total: -6Pts

Ludlow

2.20 Cityar 5/1 - 2Pt Win -2 Pts

2.50 Young Mags Eve - NAP 3Pts - 3Pts

3.20 Ajzal 3/1 - 2Pts Win -2Pts

3.50 Up to the Mark 7/4 - 2Pt Win +3.5PTs

4.20 U B Carefull 6/1 - 1Pt e/w +7.5Pts

4.50 Bermuda Boy 11/4 - 2Pt Win -2Pts

5.20 Court Minstrel - No Bet

Meeting total: +4Pts

Daily total: -2Pts Some favourites let us down today and were not quite "Up to the Mark"! Ok Bad joke and I shall go and get my coat...... back for more soon!

Shell Houston Open tips

Tips
1.5pts EW Steve Stricker at 16/1 (Various, but take Bodog's 6 places) T36th Loss 3pts
1.5pts EW Aaron Baddeley at 35/1 (Various) MC Loss 3pts
1pt EW Louis Oosthuizen at 66/1 (Various) 3rd Profit 15.5pts
0.2pts EW Brian Davis at 125/1 (coral) T4th Profit 3.125pts
0.3pts EW Ben Crane at 80/1 (Various, but take Bodog's 6 places) T29th Loss 0.6pts

Total profit : 12.025pts


Reasons for selection
A totally different way of looking at the tournament this week, with an insight in to my rationalé in tipping up players in looking at the systems I use

Stats used (weighting applied in brackets)
Tournament history
Overall tournament form 2001-2011 (8) - Bias towards years 2006-2011 due to course change
Tournament form 2010/2011 (4)


Golfer ability
World Golf Ranking (5)
Recent stroke play form (8) - Weighting given for recent top 5s, although various other weighting used.

Course attributes
Bentgrass positive (6)
State form positive (3)

Performance attributes
Birdie or better (6) - General and specifically par 5 birdie or better both considered
GIR (12) - Recent form prioritised, but season stats also considered
Putting (6) - Putts per round, strokes gained putting considered
Driving distance (3)

System result
I apply a system to all of my golf tips using various key indicators.  The table below summarises the result of my weighting above, showing my top 20.

It is impossible to produce a system result that ever gives complete comfort.  However I am fairly satisfied that the system has produced results broadly in line with expectation.  Steve Stricker has impeccable credentials here and may not be as distracted as those above him in the betting in the week ahead of the Masters.  Phil ranks 2nd, despite a recent 1st and 2nd finish and a win here last year.  Baddeley demonstrated his ability to play this event here last year when finishing 4th and ticks all of the major boxes for me this week.  Westwood is a risk due to his questionable putting and motivation in the week before the Masters.

Before using the system, the credentials of Stricker, Baddeley and Bradley were obvious to me.  As both Stricker and Baddeley suggest value versus the bookies, I have followed the system this week in omitting Bradley, albeit reluctantly.  Bradley was no.1 in my form table, published here on Monday http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/03/shell-houston-open-recent-form-guide.html and has a great chance here, but I am not convinced of his value at the price.

Further down, I have taken the bentgrass positives associated with a returning to form Oosthuizen and the recent form of Brian Davis in my staking plan.  Both players are clear value tips, as I believe they have been grossly under-estimated by the layers this week.  Finally, Ben Crane is out of sorts but I am happy to chance that he returns to form this week.  After all, Crane was going off at quotes of 25/1 only a few weeks ago and will not be concerned about saving himself for a Masters Challenge next week.

Those players in positions 9-16 above all are under-estimated by the layers for me, as they have the credentials to do better than most this week if they find a groove.  Hopefully I picked the right 3 to be onside with.

I am nervous about advising anybody that Stanley, Schwartzel or Mahan are under-priced as all can clearly get the job done this week.  However, I will say that their chances are perhaps a little over-estimated.  All 3 are in poor recent form and I certainly believe that Schwartzel and Mahan should be tuning up this week rather than prioritising an emotionally sapping Sunday ahead of the Masters.

I will look further at the Spreadex lines and matchbets and may advise additional bets tomorrow.  Harrington appeals to me greatly on Spreadex, for example.  But, perhaps more of that closer to the off.

Regards

Dave (OneBet)

Racing Selections 27th March

Hereford

2.10 Archie Rice 13/2 - 1Pt e/w - 2Pts

2.40 Koultas King 9/1 - 1Pt e/w +2.8Pts

3.10 Overlaw 7/2 - 2Pt Win +7Pts

3.40 Western Kate 11/3 - 2Pt Win -2Pts

4.10 Is it Me 7/2 - 2Pt Win NR

4.40 Earth Planet 9/4 - 2Pt Win -2Pts

5.10 Barrison 13/8 - 2Pt Win -2Pts
Meeting total: +1.8Pts

Market Rasen

2.20 Langley 9/2 - 2Pt Win - 2 Pts

2.50 Royal Entourage 6/4 - 2Pt Win -2Pts

3.20 O'Crotaigh 13/2 1Pt e/w +8.13Pts

3.50 Anay Turge 10/3 - 2Pt Win +6.66Pts

4.20 Charles 10/3 - 2Pt Win -2Pts

4.50 Dawn Commander, Finnegan Paddy - Str Fcast 3/1 - 2Pts - 2Pts

5.20 Scarlet Fire 2/1 - 2Pt Win -2 Pts

Meeting total: +6.79Pts


Southwell

2.30 Caledonia Prince 7/2  - 2 Pt Win +7Pts

3.00 Lanarkshire 4/1 - 2 Pt Win +8Pts

3.30 Slatey Hen 25/1 - 1pt e/w -2Pts

4.00 Aliante 11/8 NAP -  3 Pt Win -3Pts

4.30 Admirable Duque 10/3 - 2 Pt Win -2PTs

5.00 Lady Bluesky 10/3 2 Pt Win -2Pts

5.30 Tweet Lady 8/1 1Pt e/w -2Pts

Meeting total: +4Pts

Daily total: +12.6Pts

Shell Houston Open - Recent form guide

To see Shell Houston Open tips for this week, please click here http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/03/shell-houston-open-tips.html

The form guide showed up strongly last week.  Tiger Woods ad Bubba Watson were T1 in our table of players with the best finishing positions in the last 3 results and then of course duly went on to finish 1st and T4th respectively.

I think recent form is less strong a factor this week; the course is easier than last week's classic tests and so players can come here out of sorts and potentially find their game.  Phil Mickelson produced a stunning weekend last year to win the event, as he cruised through the field on Saturday and pulled away on Sunday.  In terms of form entering the event, Phil had done very little up to that point in the 2011 season.  Indeed, none of the top 5 had irresistible form entering the event.  That said, I still want to trust form players more than those entirely out of sorts.

My tips will be published tomorrow as I collate a few final thoughts before settling on my final few.  Form table below as usual with thoughts on some players below, who have been dismissed by the layers despite showing decent form of late

Chris Stroud - Followed up a 5th and 9th with 15th last time out.  Solid rather than spectacular GIR stats of late, Stroud sits in the top 10 for scrambling and will be feeling confident ahead of this week.

Kevin Stadler - Progressive results all year for Stadler with a form line of 102nd, 70th, 25th, 24th, 16th, 9th and 7th..  The 7th last time out owed a lot to a hot putter, which will be desired here.  GIR stats not so good last time out, but 7th in the field the time before.  Could make a run this week.

Vaughn Taylor - Interesting proposition here.  For the man currently sat 150/1 and 6 places with Ladbrokes.  Taylor finished 2nd in a play-off to Antony Kim and so can clearly handle the course.  Taylor has not played for a few weeks and is decent form.  15th in his last two strokeplay events for GIR, Taylor could be a dark horse if he starts to roll some putts again early

William McGirt - A regular in this feature, McGirt is overlooked by the bookies, largely due to his aibility to turn potential in to paying places come Sunday evening.  Regressive form last week - McGirt needs to find a big improvement to feature this week.

Mark Anderson - Solid but unspectacular from Anderson this year.  No real signs in headline stats that this week will bring the step change required.

Brian Harman - A MC in sandwiched between two top 15 finishes for Harman.  One of the few to produce a good final round last time out, Harman's game is in good shape.  Harman ranked in the top for both greens and putts per round at Bay Hill.  At 150/1, it is easy to like the 37.5/1 place terms as it feels his chances are a little better than that this week.

Nate Green - 30th for green here last year is decent, with an opening 67 a reminder that he can certainly play the course when on form.  Despite that and notwithstanding 300/1 is a big price, I won't be making a hero call on Green this week

Racing Selections 26th March

Towcester

2.30 Little Bob 14/1 -1 1pt e/w - 2Pts

3.00 Tooka 7/2 2 Pt Win WON +7Pts

3.30 Countess Comet 11/8 NAP 3 Pt Win -3Pts

4.00 Marked Man 6/1 1Pt e/w - 2Pts

4.30 Chac Du Cadran 7/4 - 3Pt Win  - 3Pts

5.00 Papradon 8/1 1 point e/w 2nd +1.5Pts

5.30 Follow The Facts 13/8 2 point win -2Pts
Meeting Total-3.5Pts

Lingfield

2.15 Spinning Ridge 7/1 1pt e/w -2 Pts

2.45 Stag Hill 8/1 1 Pt ew - 2Pts

3.15 Celtic Charlie  9/4 2 point win - 2Pts

3.45 Valbcheck 1/5 No Bet

4.15 Amazing Win 5/2 2 Pt win -2Pts

4.45 Macks Sister 12/1 1 Pt e/w -2Pts

5.15 Marvo 7/2 2 point win +7Pts
Meeting Total -3Pts


Well a disappointing day with only 2 winners and 1 place out of the two meetings. Back tomorrow for more.....

Racing Selections - 25th March

HEXHAM
1410 Gottany O'S & 1440 The Lobster Catcher 4Pt Win Double @1.35/1 - 4Pts
1510 Jackson Cage 5/2 - 2Pt Win -2Pts
1540 Almond Court 33/1- 0.75Pts e/w -2Pts
1610 Outlaw Tom 6/1 - 1Pt e/w Won +7.5Pts
1640 Strathaird 9/2 - 2Pt Win - 2Pts
1710 Red Danger Angel 8/1 - 1Pt e/w -2PTs
Meeting Total: -4.5Pts


Downpatrick
1420 Cause of Causes 8/13 No Bet (OneBet Longshot Suspect Device 22/1 0.5Pts e/w) -1Pt
1450 Dirar 5/4 - 2Pt Win WON+2.5PTS
1520 Point to the toes - 4/1 - 2Pt Win -2PTS
1550 Askmeroe 9/2 - 2Pt Win -2PTS 
1620 The Corby Glen 6/1 - 1Pt e/w -2PTS
1650 Casson 5/2 - 2Pt Win -2PTS
1520 Tasitiocht 6/4 - 2Pt Win NR
Meeting Total: -6.5PTS


Wincanton
1425 Sonoran Sands 8/11 No Bet WON
1455 Moscow Chancer 9/4 - 2Pt Win -2Pts
1525 Cesium 5/2 - 2Pt Win WON +5PTS
1555 Perpetually 9/4 - 2Pt Win -2PTS
1625 Douryna 9/4 - 2Pt Win -2PTS
1655 Polisky 4/11 - No Bet WON

Meeting Total: -1 PTS

Football tips 25th March

Half time score
It serie A Chievo vs Siena 0-0 at half time, 1.5pts at 6/4 (William Hill, 7/5 Paddy Power, BetVictor) Loss 1.5pts

Over 2.5 goals
SP La Liga Bilbao vs Gijon 2pts over 2.5 goals at 8/11 (Stan James, 4/6 various) Loss 2pts

Total loss 3.5pts

Weekend football tips - March 24th

Over 2.5 goals
Eng Prem Chelsea vs Tottenham 1.5pts at 4/5 (Boylesports, 8/11 various) Loss 1.5pts
Scots Div 3 Annan vs Montrose 1.5pts at 8/11 (Bet365, 4/6 Skybet) W Profit 1pt

Both teams to score - Yes
Eng Conf Alfreton vs Cambridge 2pts at 3/4 (BlueSq, 888Sport) W Profit 1.5pts


To win to nil
Eng Champ Middlesborough vs Bristol City 1.5pts Boro win to nil at 6/4 (Various) Loss 1.5pts
Eng Conf Tamworth vs Gateshead 1.5pts Gateshead win to nil at 7/2 (BlueSq, 888Sport) Loss 1.5 pts

Over 3.5 goals
Scots Div 2 Airdrie vs Arbroath 1.5pts at 7/5 (Sporting Bet, 11/8 Various) Loss 1.5pts
Scots Div 2 Forfar vs Stirling 1.5pts at 6/4 (William Hill, Sporting Bet) W Profit 2.25pts

Highest scoring half
Scots Prem Aberdeen vs Inverness 1st half to be highest scoring. 1pt at 9/4 (Betfred, 11/5 Sportin/Boyle) W Profit 2.25pts
Scots Div 2 Brechin vs East Fife 2nd half to be highest scoring at Evens (Various) Loss 1pt

Treble over 2.5 Goals Annan, Gateshead to win to nil and Breachi most goals second half 1pt at 14/1 (Various) Loss 1pt

Total loss 1pt

Arnold Palmer Invitational - Midway Considerations

Hi all,

Halfway tip
2pts KJ Choi to place at 16/1 (Paddy Power)

Some analysis below on the leading contenders for the Arnold Palmer Invitational at half way.

The table below looks at the leading players and considers how they have performed being within the top 20 at the halfway stage.

So, let's walk you through what the above means, by looking at Tiger.  Tiger has had 6 tops 20s at half way in the last 15 months, averaging 9th position at halfway from those 6 tournaments.  However, his average finish in those events is 18th, which is only the 13th best of those challenging this week.  So, he drops on average 9 spots, which ranks only 15th in weekend performance after a sound start.

Of course, this is not definitive where Tiger is concerned and I will not be advising anything on him.  He loves this course, has won 33 out of 41 times he has been halfway leader throughout his career and has a real chance.  At around even money, it is a question of whether it is this week he returns or not.  Tough to be confident at evens given recent disappointment, but he must win soon.

I am looking for value elsewhere.  If you look at two ranking columns, you will see KJ Choi at one for both. So, his finishing position from his 10 top 20s at halfway is the best average finish in the field.  Also, the second last column shows me that only he and Webb Simpson have improved their position on average in the last two seasons.  Contrast that with co-leader Charlie Wi.  T1 at halfway, but falls an average 23 positions over the weekend.  At 10/1 with 3 places and 1/4 or 4 places and 1/5 odds, I can not advise Wi as being a value shout here.

The next table looks at players who have been top 10 at halfway.  Same columns.

Interestingly, no player averaged an improvement over the weekend after being within the top 10 at halfway.  This is more understandable, as a player who is 1 at halfway can only finish in the same position or worse come the end.  We also see in terms of number of records that we have a less reliable data set to go on.  Sean O'Hair ranks 1, but we only have 2 events to look at.  KJ Choi has been top 10 5 times and performs 2nd best over the weekend.  Also, at the Players last year, Choi turned an 11th at halfway in to a W come Sunday.  So, we have a player who can come from deep to prevail on a tough course.  I like the place odds of 16/1 with Paddy Power and believe he is worth a decent punt.  I have stayed off the 80/1 EW - I believe that (fair conditions considered) Choi may need back to back 66s to even have a chance to win and that feels extremely unlikely given the tough nature of the course and weekend pin positions.

Martin Laird is the only of my pre-event tips truly in the mix.  He performs well enough over the weekend for the 16.5/1 place odds we got before the off to still feel like value.  Laird is of course defending here and hopefully he fights strongly for us over the weekend.

No prices up on Spreadex as yet, but if you can buy Charlie Wi at around 15, he may be worth a small interest

Regards

Dave (OneBet)

Racing Selections - 24th March

Newbury
13.30 One Lucky Lady 7/4 - 2Pt Win - 2Pts
14.05 Pepite Rose 13/8 - 2Pt Win +3.25 Pts
14.40 Kentford Grey Lady 9/2 - 2 Pt win NR (OneBet Longshot - A Little Swifter 20/1 0.75 Pts e/w)
- 1.5 Pts
15.10 Claret Cloak 7/4 - 2Pt Win +3.5Pts
15.40 Ikorodu Road 5/1- 2Pt Win +10Pts
16.15 Marodima 10/3 - 2Pt Win -2Pts
16.50 Utopian 11/4 - 2 Pt Win -2Pts
Meeting Total +11.25Pts


Gowran Park
14.00 Cyprusormilan 8/1 1pt e/w +0.6Pts (Loch Ard 2/5 should clearly win this race - No Bet)
14.35 Its the Ice I Like 11/8 - 2Pt Win +2.75Pts
15.05 Owennacurra Milan 6/1 - 1Pt e/w +1Pt
15.35 Maggie Neary 4/1 - 2Pt Win -2Pts
16.10 Lord Redsgirth 4/1 -2 Pt Win -2Pts
16.45 Letterlee Star 10/1 - 1Pt e/w -2 Pts
17.20 Lady Temptress 11/4 - 2Pt Win -2Pts
Meeting Total -3.65Pt

Stratford
14.10 Fiver Rivers 10/3 - 2Pt Win +6.66PTs
14.45 Tecktal 7/2 - 2Pt Win -2PTs
15.15 Gud Day 15/8 - 2Pt Win -2Pts
15.45 Vin De Roy 13/8 - 2 Pt Win -2PTs
16.20 Pobs Trophy 14/1 - 1Pt e/w-2Pts
16.55 Royal Mile 4/1 - 2Pt Win - 2Pts
17.25 Midnight Spirit 5/1 - 2Pt Win  -2Pts
Meeting Total -5.34 Pts


Bangor
14.15 Hibiki 9/4 - 2Pt Win -2Pts
14.50 Call Back 11/10 - 3Pt Win +3.3Pts
15.20 Storming Gale 8/1 - 1Pt Win -1Pt
15.50 Railway Dillon 4/1 - 2Pt Win NR
16.25 Golden Call 5/1 - 1 Pt Win +5Pts (OneBet Long Shot - Dorset Square 28/1 1pt e/w) -2Pts
17.00 Launde 7/4 - 2Pt Win -2Pts
17.35 Ifyousayso 7/1 - 1Pt e/w +8.4Pts
Meeeting Total +6.7Pts


Kelso
14.30 Groovy Dancer 7/1 - 1Pt e/w -2Pts
15.00 European Dream 5/1 - 2Pt Win -2Pts
15.30 Time Out 5/2 - 2Pt Win -2Pts
16.05 Scotswell 11/2 - 2Pt Win +11Pts
16.40 Super Ally 5/2 - 2Pt Win +3.5Pts (Rule 4 0.30p)
17.05 Catchthemoonlight 12/1 1Pt e/w -2PTs
Meeting Total +6.5Pts

Lingfield
13.50 Hefner 5/1 - 1Pt Win -1 PT
14.25 Gusto 3/1 - 2Pt Win, +6PTs Boris Grigoriev 14/1 1Pt e/w -2Pts
14.55 Noble Storm 9/2 - 1Pt Win -1Pt
15.25 Junoob 5/1 - 1Pt Win, (OneBet Longshot Emarlald Witness 20/1 0.75Pts e/w) -2.5Pts
16.00 George Guru 9/4 - 2Pt Win +4.5Pts
16.35 Hazaz 11/4 - 2 Pt Win -2Pts
17.10 English Summer 3/1 - 2Pt Win -2Pts
Meeting Total -4.5Pts


Daily Total +10.96 Pts which is not too bad all things considered and we continue to eek the profit up another couple of notches !

Racing Selections 22nd March

Chepstow

2.10 Miss Tique 6/1 1 Pt e/w WON+7.5Pts

2.40 Lady Bridget 3/1 2 point win -2PTS

3.10 Magot De Grugy 12/1 1Pt e/w +3PTS

3.45 Relax 6/5 NAP 3 point win -3PTS

4.20 The Red Laird 12/1 1 Pt e/w -2PTS

4.55 Current Exchange 9/4 2Pt Win -2PTS

5.25 Tolkeins Tango 11/2 1 point win (OneBet Longshot 50/1 Schindlers Secret e/w) 0.5Pt e/w -2PTS

Meeting total: -0.5PTS

Fontwell

2.20 Milarrow 4/6 - NAP 4 Pt Win WON +2.67PTS

2.50 Curragh Dancer 11/2 1pt Win -1PT

3.20 Award Winner 5/1 - 2pt Win -2PTS

3.55 Current Event 5/6 - 3Pt Win WON+2.5PTS

4.30 Bon Spiel 5/2 - 2Pt Win -2PTS

5.05 Rateable Value 11/4 - 2Pt Win NR

5.35 Chilworth Screamer 16/1 1Pt e/w (priced changed due to reduced field) 10/3 
WON +4.16PTS

Meeting total: +4.33PTS

Carlisle

2.30 Charminster 5/4 - 2 Pt Win -2PTS

3.00 Stanley Bridge 4/1 - 1.5 Pt Win -1.5PTs

3.30 Wood Yer 9/4 - 2Pt Win -2PTS

4.05 Whiskey Ridge 9/2 1.5 Pt Win -1.5PTS

4.40 Dizzy River 7/2 - 2 Pt Win -2PTS

5.10 Man of Principles 9/4 - 2Pt Win -2PTS

5.40 Gymdoli 9/2 - 1 Pt Win -1PT

Meeting total: -12PTS

Cork

3.15 Tennis Cap 5/4 - 2 Pt Win -2PTS (OneBet Longshot Tabhachtach 18/1 0.75 Pts e/w) +16.875PTS

3.45 Abou Ben 5/1 - 1 Pt Win -2PTS

4.15 Beckwith Star 3/1 - 2 Pt Win -2PTS

4.45 Betterthanalright 7/1 - 1Pt e/w , Mini Vic 14/1 0.75 pts e/w -3.5PTS

5.15 Hasty Times 6/1 -1 Pt e/w -2PTS

5.45 High Class Show 9/2 - 1Pt Win, Volkis OBlue 8/1 1pt e/w +2PTS

6.15 Directors Forum 7/4 - 2Pt Win -2PTS

Meeting total: +7.375PTS

Daily total: -0.795PTS

Racing Selections - 21st March

Haydock


14.10 Dancing Art - 5/2 - 2 Pts Win - 2 PTs
14.40 Star In Flight 3/1 - 2 Pt Win - 2 PTs
15.15 Arctic Ben EVE  - 3 Pt Win  WON+3 PTs
15.50 Kealigolane 7/2 - 2 Pt Win WON+7 PTs
16.25 Bold Sir Brian 9/4 - 2 Pt Win - 2 Pts
16.55 Amron Lad Eve - 3 Pt Win WON + 1.56 (Rule4 0.35 in pound)
17.25 Lookout Mountain 4/1 - 1 Pt Win N/R
Meeting Total: +5.56PTs


Hereford
14.30 Rowlestone Lad 11/4 - 1Pt Win - 1 Pt
15.05 Kilfinnan Castle 11/2 1 Pt e/w - 2Pts
15.40 Monturgeon 10/11 - 3 Pt Win - 3 Pts
16.15 Nicky Nutjob 11/2 -1 Pt e/w - 2 Pts
16. 45 Gentleman Anshan 11/10 - 2Pt Win +2.2 PTs
17.15 Speedy Direct 9/4 - 2Pt Win - 2 Pts
17.45 Baron De Doc 13/2 1Pt e/w - 2Pts
Meeting Total -9.8Pts


Warwick
14.20 Leath Acra Manor 15/2 1Pt e/w WON + 9.5 Pts (OneBet longshot 22/1 Ballycraken)
14.55 Lyvius 1/10 (No Bet)
15.30 Hever Road 13/2 -1 Pt Win  WON +6.5 Pts
16.05 Briefcase 11/2 - 1 Pt Win -1Pt
16.35 Bow to No one 2/1 - 2 Pt Win  WON+ 4Pts
Meeting Total: +19 Pts

Daily Total: +16.2 Pts


Well a bit of a mixed day with a great result at both Warwick and Haydock but Hereford let us down badly. After all that we still came out with over 16Pts of profit so not too bad at all.

Racing Selections - 20th March

Exeter
14.30 Edgware Road 3/1 - 2Pt Win - 2PTS
15.00 Buckie Boy 7/1 1pt e/w -2PTS
15.30 Mush Mir Eve - 3 Pt Win -3PTS
16.00 Normally 6/1 1 pt e/w -2PTS
16.30 Templer 2/1 - 2Pt Win -2PTS
17.00 Kowloon 13/8 2Pt Win -2PTS

Meeting Total-13PTS

Golf betting guide - Arnold Palmer form guide

Hi all,

Outright event tips up on site here http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/03/golf-betting-arnold-palmer-invitational.html

A planned regular weekly feature, please see the latest form guide ahead of this week's Arnold Palmer Invitational.  As per last week, players are ranked by their average finishing position in the last 3 stroke play events.  

The right hand column highlights the players with the largest discrepancy between their position in the form ranking table and their position in the betting according to latest bookmaker prices. 

As always, all comments greatfully received

Price discrepancies - Top 10 with decent form and odds bigger than their form suggests

Dicky Pride.  30th here last year and performing consistently well on tour of late.  A top 5 finish would surprise despite this, but a deeper look at top 20 odds may hold appeal.

Jeff Overton - Strong recent form, especially with the flat stick.  GIR impressive last week, which will be important here

Charles Howell III - Chances here.  Likes it tough and one of the better players on tour for keeping bogeys off the card.  Big question about his ability to get it done vs just hanging around somewhere near the place positions.  Betfair/Spreadex/Top 20 appeal.

Henrik Stenson - Quietly turning in to a good golfer again.  Should have won last time out.  Form line of 20, 21, 3 is impressive and the tougher course challenge is likely to appeal.  Some dark horse value here, although quite a lot to trust.

Greg Chalmers - Playing very solid golf of late.  Questionable whether he produces again this week.  Indifferent headline stats last time out.

Ryan Palmer - Flashes of form of late.  A leap of faith that he puts 4 days together.

Brandt Jobe - 6th in my rankings for recent top line stats, allied to some good recent finishes makes this price look over big.  A few years digging needed for a top 25 finish here, but it does exist.  Some value, but not compelling enough to be a must bet.  

Daniel Summerhays - Continues to go well this season, driven by a strong approach game in recent weeks.  A useful attribute this week.

William McGirt - Fell away as forecast last week after a good opening two days.  Too easily dismissed by layers..  Could be some top 20 value.  

Cameron Tringale - Drove the ball better last week; actually pretty decent tee to green.  Putting a problem recently.  Needs to find something to make a challenge.

Regards

Dave (OneBet)

Golf betting - Arnold Palmer Invitational Tips

Tips
15pts EW Martin Laird at 66/1 (Ladbrokess, Stan James) Loss 3pts
1.5pts EW Hunter Mahan at 25/1 (Various) Loss 3pts
1pt EW Bill Haas at 45/1 (Bet365, 40/1 various) Loss 2pts
0.3pts EW Boo Weekley at 200/1 (Bodog 6 places, 200/1 Boyle, Stan James 5 places) Loss 0.6pts

total loss : 8.6pts

Please refer here also to see a form guide for players in this week's event http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/03/golf-betting-guide-arnold-palmer-form.html

Tournament background
Bay Hill is the setting for the latest tournament on the Florida Swing as leading players further tune their game ahead of the Masters.  The jewel in the crown as far as this sequence of Florida events is concerned, the Arnold Palmer Invitational sees a PGA field gather for a necessary stern test in the build up to the year's first major.

Bay Hill is a tough test, ranking inside the top 10 most difficult courses on tour in 2011.  The event tests every aspect of a players game.  I want good all rounders here, capable of finding fairways and greens.  I also want players who can score when the opportunity is there.  That means capitalising on the par 5s and taking advantage of good drives on easier holes.  However, perhaps even more important than that is retaining the control over four rounds to minimise dropped shots.  Anybody who witnessed the war of attrition last year as Martin Laird blew his lead and fell 3 shots down only to rally and win, will know that temperament, allied to a sound all round game will reap results this week.

We again see Bermuda putting surfaces this week; Florida = Bermuda and so players playing well in the state also tick the box for being able to handle the type of putting surface used this week.  Ally that to the need to have players at one with their game and it is extremely hard to neglect the recent form book.  The link to the form guide above should not be idly dismissed when considering likely Bay Hill contenders.

The final point of note is that the course is different to that which Tiger Woods dominated up to and including 2009, having been extended from a par 70 to a par 72.  In addition, further changes have been made to the greens in particular to try and ensure that golfers are offered a fair, but tough test.  Arguably, the Woods of old would relish the new course layout even more than the old.  As for the Woods of today, I am still a little cautious

The selections
I mentioned above that I want players who are generally in good shape this week.  Laird won the event last year with 8th in driving distance and then mid 20 results for driving accuracy GIR and putting.  Hardly sensational, but yet all four metrics very solid.  Players who control all areas of their game are to be trusted this week.  I want players with demonstrable form coming in to the event.

So, given all I have said, why Martin Laird?  his form has been somewhat patchy of late and the missed cut of last week explains entirely quotes of 66-1.  Had Laird finished even in the top 30, I suspect we would have seen quotes shorter than 50-1.  As for the missed cut, Laird was a single shot away from making the weekend and his second round was a useful 69.  Ally that to a run to the quarter final in the MatchPlay and I do not think we have a 66/1 shot for the title or a 16.5/1 shot for a place.  In looking at Laird's recent stats, I see a player who has been 22nd and 2nd for greens hit in his last two attempts (the 2nd was only over 2 rounds due to the MC), with decent driving stats.  So, I am putting some faith in the fact that an all rounder is needed more than the best putter this week.  Last year's winner has had a couple of extra days to get set for this week.  We could be a hotter putter away from a big pay out here.

Hunter Mahan is in a good place with his game right now.  He was pretty awesome in winning the Matchplay and carries recent strong all round stats in to this event.  A good player of par 5s and capable of hanging tough when necessary, I like his chances here.  Mahan is a general 25/1 and 6th in the betting becuase his form is less irresistible than the likes of Garcia and Rose ahead of him, but for me he has a better chance of being in the mix.  Garcia and Rose underwhelmed me last week and both need to find something here.  Rose particularly concerns, as his putting was off and it was that which stopped him challenging more strongly last year (great final day aside).  Rose joint led GIR last week and yet did not even threaten to place.  I cna leave him alone.  I have a feeling with Mahan that this could be his time to perform at Bay Hill.  It is a bit of a feel pick based on stats and current form over recent Bay Hill credentials.  However, Mahan is right at the forefront when considering America's best players in Ryder Cup year and I expect him to challenge here.

Bill Haas is a similar consideration to Mahan in some respects.  Both players had headline wins and then a fairly flat follow up.  However, the general form lines are obvious.  Haas' recent game is extremely impressive and his all round stats are amongst the best in the field.  I particularly like that Haas in in 18th in my recent putting stats, allied to a very sound tee to green game.  If he brings that form this week, he will go close.  My concern is that Hass has not done a great deal in the state over the last couple of years.  However, two wins on Bermuda surfaces in the last two years leaves me relaxed enough to let other factors dominate my mind.  Haas can sometimes frustrate by not performing at all when all seems set.  However, this maturing golfer is better placed than ever to turn form in to results and I want him onside at what I consider to be a massive 45/1 price.

Finally, Boo.  I never thought I would be tipping Boo Weekley up any time soon, particularly given his putting form in the last couple of seasons, but I think he is worth a small play this week.  Boo, in the recent past, has 3 top 25s here, so clearly has an affinity for the place.  In addition, there is a hint that Boo is finding some form, with a fast finishing third in the Puerto Rico Open fresh in the memory.  Boo was 8th in putting that week, which allied to 11th in greens, is a pretty potent mix.  The challenge is different here of course.  However, the pressure on putting is lessened and Boo's ability to hit greens could see him give us some interest going in to the weekend.  An emotion player when on form, Boo could well be prominent early in the tournament.  I was tempted to advise a first round leader bet here, but we will just play on the outright.