1.5pts EW Steve Stricker at 16/1 (Various, but take Bodog's 6 places) T36th Loss 3pts
1.5pts EW Aaron Baddeley at 35/1 (Various) MC Loss 3pts
1pt EW Louis Oosthuizen at 66/1 (Various) 3rd Profit 15.5pts
0.2pts EW Brian Davis at 125/1 (coral) T4th Profit 3.125pts
0.3pts EW Ben Crane at 80/1 (Various, but take Bodog's 6 places) T29th Loss 0.6pts
Total profit : 12.025pts
Reasons for selection
A totally different way of looking at the tournament this week, with an insight in to my rationalé in tipping up players in looking at the systems I use
Stats used (weighting applied in brackets)
Tournament history
Overall tournament form 2001-2011 (8) - Bias towards years 2006-2011 due to course change
Tournament form 2010/2011 (4)
Golfer ability
World Golf Ranking (5)
Recent stroke play form (8) - Weighting given for recent top 5s, although various other weighting used.
Course attributes
Bentgrass positive (6)
State form positive (3)
Performance attributes
Birdie or better (6) - General and specifically par 5 birdie or better both considered
GIR (12) - Recent form prioritised, but season stats also considered
Putting (6) - Putts per round, strokes gained putting considered
Driving distance (3)
System result
I apply a system to all of my golf tips using various key indicators. The table below summarises the result of my weighting above, showing my top 20.
It is impossible to produce a system result that ever gives complete comfort. However I am fairly satisfied that the system has produced results broadly in line with expectation. Steve Stricker has impeccable credentials here and may not be as distracted as those above him in the betting in the week ahead of the Masters. Phil ranks 2nd, despite a recent 1st and 2nd finish and a win here last year. Baddeley demonstrated his ability to play this event here last year when finishing 4th and ticks all of the major boxes for me this week. Westwood is a risk due to his questionable putting and motivation in the week before the Masters.
Before using the system, the credentials of Stricker, Baddeley and Bradley were obvious to me. As both Stricker and Baddeley suggest value versus the bookies, I have followed the system this week in omitting Bradley, albeit reluctantly. Bradley was no.1 in my form table, published here on Monday http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/03/shell-houston-open-recent-form-guide.html and has a great chance here, but I am not convinced of his value at the price.
Further down, I have taken the bentgrass positives associated with a returning to form Oosthuizen and the recent form of Brian Davis in my staking plan. Both players are clear value tips, as I believe they have been grossly under-estimated by the layers this week. Finally, Ben Crane is out of sorts but I am happy to chance that he returns to form this week. After all, Crane was going off at quotes of 25/1 only a few weeks ago and will not be concerned about saving himself for a Masters Challenge next week.
Those players in positions 9-16 above all are under-estimated by the layers for me, as they have the credentials to do better than most this week if they find a groove. Hopefully I picked the right 3 to be onside with.
I am nervous about advising anybody that Stanley, Schwartzel or Mahan are under-priced as all can clearly get the job done this week. However, I will say that their chances are perhaps a little over-estimated. All 3 are in poor recent form and I certainly believe that Schwartzel and Mahan should be tuning up this week rather than prioritising an emotionally sapping Sunday ahead of the Masters.
I will look further at the Spreadex lines and matchbets and may advise additional bets tomorrow. Harrington appeals to me greatly on Spreadex, for example. But, perhaps more of that closer to the off.
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
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