Tips
15pts EW Martin Laird at 66/1 (Ladbrokess, Stan James) Loss 3pts
1.5pts EW Hunter Mahan at 25/1 (Various) Loss 3pts
1pt EW Bill Haas at 45/1 (Bet365, 40/1 various) Loss 2pts
0.3pts EW Boo Weekley at 200/1 (Bodog 6 places, 200/1 Boyle, Stan James 5 places) Loss 0.6pts
total loss : 8.6pts
Please refer here also to see a form guide for players in this week's event http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/03/golf-betting-guide-arnold-palmer-form.html
Tournament background
Bay Hill is the setting for the latest tournament on the Florida Swing as leading players further tune their game ahead of the Masters. The jewel in the crown as far as this sequence of Florida events is concerned, the Arnold Palmer Invitational sees a PGA field gather for a necessary stern test in the build up to the year's first major.
Bay Hill is a tough test, ranking inside the top 10 most difficult courses on tour in 2011. The event tests every aspect of a players game. I want good all rounders here, capable of finding fairways and greens. I also want players who can score when the opportunity is there. That means capitalising on the par 5s and taking advantage of good drives on easier holes. However, perhaps even more important than that is retaining the control over four rounds to minimise dropped shots. Anybody who witnessed the war of attrition last year as Martin Laird blew his lead and fell 3 shots down only to rally and win, will know that temperament, allied to a sound all round game will reap results this week.
We again see Bermuda putting surfaces this week; Florida = Bermuda and so players playing well in the state also tick the box for being able to handle the type of putting surface used this week. Ally that to the need to have players at one with their game and it is extremely hard to neglect the recent form book. The link to the form guide above should not be idly dismissed when considering likely Bay Hill contenders.
The final point of note is that the course is different to that which Tiger Woods dominated up to and including 2009, having been extended from a par 70 to a par 72. In addition, further changes have been made to the greens in particular to try and ensure that golfers are offered a fair, but tough test. Arguably, the Woods of old would relish the new course layout even more than the old. As for the Woods of today, I am still a little cautious
The selections
I mentioned above that I want players who are generally in good shape this week. Laird won the event last year with 8th in driving distance and then mid 20 results for driving accuracy GIR and putting. Hardly sensational, but yet all four metrics very solid. Players who control all areas of their game are to be trusted this week. I want players with demonstrable form coming in to the event.
So, given all I have said, why Martin Laird? his form has been somewhat patchy of late and the missed cut of last week explains entirely quotes of 66-1. Had Laird finished even in the top 30, I suspect we would have seen quotes shorter than 50-1. As for the missed cut, Laird was a single shot away from making the weekend and his second round was a useful 69. Ally that to a run to the quarter final in the MatchPlay and I do not think we have a 66/1 shot for the title or a 16.5/1 shot for a place. In looking at Laird's recent stats, I see a player who has been 22nd and 2nd for greens hit in his last two attempts (the 2nd was only over 2 rounds due to the MC), with decent driving stats. So, I am putting some faith in the fact that an all rounder is needed more than the best putter this week. Last year's winner has had a couple of extra days to get set for this week. We could be a hotter putter away from a big pay out here.
Hunter Mahan is in a good place with his game right now. He was pretty awesome in winning the Matchplay and carries recent strong all round stats in to this event. A good player of par 5s and capable of hanging tough when necessary, I like his chances here. Mahan is a general 25/1 and 6th in the betting becuase his form is less irresistible than the likes of Garcia and Rose ahead of him, but for me he has a better chance of being in the mix. Garcia and Rose underwhelmed me last week and both need to find something here. Rose particularly concerns, as his putting was off and it was that which stopped him challenging more strongly last year (great final day aside). Rose joint led GIR last week and yet did not even threaten to place. I cna leave him alone. I have a feeling with Mahan that this could be his time to perform at Bay Hill. It is a bit of a feel pick based on stats and current form over recent Bay Hill credentials. However, Mahan is right at the forefront when considering America's best players in Ryder Cup year and I expect him to challenge here.
Bill Haas is a similar consideration to Mahan in some respects. Both players had headline wins and then a fairly flat follow up. However, the general form lines are obvious. Haas' recent game is extremely impressive and his all round stats are amongst the best in the field. I particularly like that Haas in in 18th in my recent putting stats, allied to a very sound tee to green game. If he brings that form this week, he will go close. My concern is that Hass has not done a great deal in the state over the last couple of years. However, two wins on Bermuda surfaces in the last two years leaves me relaxed enough to let other factors dominate my mind. Haas can sometimes frustrate by not performing at all when all seems set. However, this maturing golfer is better placed than ever to turn form in to results and I want him onside at what I consider to be a massive 45/1 price.
Finally, Boo. I never thought I would be tipping Boo Weekley up any time soon, particularly given his putting form in the last couple of seasons, but I think he is worth a small play this week. Boo, in the recent past, has 3 top 25s here, so clearly has an affinity for the place. In addition, there is a hint that Boo is finding some form, with a fast finishing third in the Puerto Rico Open fresh in the memory. Boo was 8th in putting that week, which allied to 11th in greens, is a pretty potent mix. The challenge is different here of course. However, the pressure on putting is lessened and Boo's ability to hit greens could see him give us some interest going in to the weekend. An emotion player when on form, Boo could well be prominent early in the tournament. I was tempted to advise a first round leader bet here, but we will just play on the outright.
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