The final golf major of the year is beautifully poised at the halfway stage, with the weather obliterating many in the field yesterday but not at the expense of proven class high on the leaderboard.
5 players managed to beat par yesterday - I am most certainly including the desperately unlucky Michael Hoey in this list, who was DQ after reporting his own failure to replace sand on the ball. Formal round averages can not yet be gleaned as Joost Luiten still has his round to finish, but the players went round in an average 6.1 over par yesterday. The thing that surprises me most is that Ian Poulter could get around in sub par, but so many other great ball strikers were simply blown away. Poulter is a great grinder for sure, but he is also one of the shorter hitters on tour. So, if he can get it under par on the longest course in major championship history, I rather fancy a few out there will be underwhelmed with their efforts yesterday.
I am going to give some thoughts on the leaderboard, but please note I do it this week without my usual armoury of stats at my disposal. I am away from home with only an iPad and an intermittent connection.
Tiger Woods - For the 3rd major in succession, Tiger looms large at the halfway stage. At the US Open, he co-led with Furyk at this point before falling away, largely due to an inability to play the super-tough opening 6 hole stretch well. No such problems here at the start of the round, as the front 9 is the easier of the two, although nothing should be taken for granted; every hole is tough when the wind blows. In the British Open, Tiger never went away, but never quite got there either. Who am I to question Tiger of course, but I still believe his choice of iron off all bar a couple of tees cost him over the 4 days. It was his to win.
So what of his chances here? First of all, he simply has to be favourite at this stage. I checked a couple of forecasts before writing this. On Saturday golfing conditions are ranked only 4 out of 10, but improve to 8 tomorrow. At this course, 4 out of 10 is not where you want it to be. Tiger is scrambling great, making a number of 1-putts to keep his score ticking over. Question is whether he can continue to do that. If so, he has an outstanding chance. If not, I would question whether he is hitting enough greens. Much will depend on where the organisers choose to place the pins on the last 2 days. I suspect that on Saturday the pins will be more accessible, which makes both approaches and up and downs eminently more possible. On Sunday perhaps less so and a number of up and downs will incorporate shots across undulating greens.
Tiger is the favourite, but he has to improve his tee to green game to have a serious chance of winning. I believe an over par round is likely over the weekend and both the elements and the performance of others will dictate how costly this is. There will be a lot of pressure on him if he hits the front on Sunday. I have my doubts and would not be backing him at his current price.
Carl Pettersson - Pettersson co-leads at halfway, but is readily dismissed by layers at 25/1. I think bookmaker pricing is largely to deflect outlay away from Tiger in such events. They have to try and at least even their books, which is mighty tough when Tiger or prominent. Pettersson has never made the places in a major, but has the right sort of credentials to do so. A lot of punters talked up Pettersson before the US Open and with good reason. When it comes to shaping your ball off the tee, Pettersson is a good man to trust. When it comes to playing technical, tight par 70s, again Pettersson is a man to look at seriously. His win earlier this season was seriously impressive - Pettersson is one of the few this year to have hit the front and then gone impressively away from his challengers over the weekend. A multiple tour winner and comfortably within the world's top 50, he is not lightly dismissed here. 3 late bogeys will have jolted his confidence of course yesterday, but this guy is plenty good enough to start afresh today.
My main concern with Pettersson is how well he maintains form through to
Late Sunday. Pettersson is hardly the fittest guy on tour and surely this course asks more questions than most of your fitness. I also wonder whether the long putter keeps on rolling the, well on the green in stiff winds and across large greens.
Over all, 25/1 feels like just about the right price. Pettersson lost his way in holes 7-9 yesterday (his 16th-18th). If still somewhere near the top, he could be worth looking at at 45 and not 36 holes.
Vijay Singh completes the trio at the top. The oldest major winner were he to do it, Vijay has one of the very best CVs in the field. Of course, his CV is filled with highlights in years gone by, but a Vijay Singh untroubled by back injuries is still capable of great play. Singh still hits it long and remains a wizard with the wedge when playing well. His 69 yesterday was the only round in the 60s and demonstrates just how well he is controlling his golf ball. I highlighted in a midpoint preview earlier this year just how readily Singh has been blowing good positions at halfway in the last 2 years (possibly due to the challenge of staying in peak condition over 4 days). However, two top 10s including the British Open coming in suggest he is playing injury free right now.
That said, it is a long time since Singh placed in a major and it is a rare occurrence indeed for him to contend in regular PGA tour events. I think the 12/1 quotes on offer are something nearing lunacy. He might win, but after the headline grabbing 69, my instinct would be to fancy him to finish outside the top 20 before he wins. An avoid for me.
Ian Poulter is a guy I usually look to on faster putting surfaces.........or when the wind blows. He was fantastic in chasing Harrington down the stretch in the 2009 British Open when I think +3 won the event. His round yesterday was pretty special given his relative lack of weapons. Problem is, he is 3rd favourite and only 11/1. I think I need 20/1 before I am going in on Poulter here. I would love to see him do it though.
Jamie Donaldson has no hope, right? Well,I am not entirely convinced of that. 2 shots from the lead and recently having broken his duck on the European Tour, Donaldson is scaling new heights this year. For years, he has been in that small group of players on tour who you thought had to win an event sooner or later. The question is whether his winning on tour has made him able to compete in this company. I can't answer that one, but I know it will be tough. 50/1 is quite some price for a guy right in contention. I think if he was a bit better than the 55s available on Betfair I might think him worthy of a back to lay, but I can't trust him at the price. The 50/1 is really an 11.5/1 place price. It isn't bad, but he is in with the big boys here and the leaderboard is too star-studded for it to feel great value.
Rory McIlroy is both my win only pre-event tip and also the clear 2nd favourite behind Woods in the betting at 8/1. I made some money on him yesterday, confident he would slip back. It didn't take a genius to work that out and the lay to back strategy was pretty easy money on Betfair. However, Rory stuck to the task pretty well and will be likely buoyed at having coped better than most in trying conditions. The question with Rory is whether he can stay close enough to the head of things on Saturday? If so, potentially improved conditions on Sunday means he has a chance.
I can see a script where Rory lies 3 off the pace after round 3 and gets hot to win the event, but I would not back him now at 8/1 to do so. I believe his chances of being much shorter in the betting come the end of today are quite slim. Therefore, it makes every sense to consider bother lay to back to strategy - lay him at 9.4 or so and back him at 15 or so to try and get free profit should he win. Alternatively, wait and see if he is in the mix and look again after round 3 would be my advice.
Of the layers at -1, I most like Immelmann because he won the team event here in 2003. Scott at 14s is poorly priced. Blake Adams is probably best equipped of the 4 to go well (mindful of a strong showing at Sawgrass) but least well equipped when it comes to contending. However, the 80/1 certainly tempts me to risk that he contends here. That is a nice price indeed. Immelmann at 66s is decent too, but I would love to have seen him 80s too. Aaron Baddeley is a player I really like and he has the tools to become much more prominent on tour than he is now. However, 40/1 is pretty dire odds.
And so to the players at evens. It is great to see Phil in contention. The golfing world needs the best players playing well and going for majors. I hope he stays in there. He is 25s, which is not bad. However, if you want to back him, expect the jumpy Betfair punters to offer you nice value. If he birdies a hole early, he will leap forward. This is entirely artificial, as he may then shoot +8 (as anybody can around here) but that is the beauty of Betfair. My strongest play on Phil is a Betfair play. I am on the fence about whether it is a great play, however.
McDowell, Hansen and Clark are also evens and I can make a case for all. McDowell keeps contending in majors and won a very tough US Open in just the sort of way he would need to here - by hanging tough. The layers know it though and 28s is tight enough for me. Clark is another short hitter who, like Poulter, is showing there is more than way to score round here. It is hard not to like 100/1. Consider this brief. If you are level par today and end the tournament level par, you are likely to place and might win. That statement is weather dependent, but it is has a lot to it. So, it is 25/1 on a place that Tim Clark stays still. I like that. I like it for Hansen, McDowell and Mickelson too by the way. Hansen at 66s has merits, particularly given his charge through the field in the masters and his general ability to progress over the weekend - I backed him at halfway at the British Open for this reason.
To finish, is there anybody else that can go under par for the weekend from their current over par position and place or even win. Molinari can play tough pretty well and Zach proved that well at Sawgrass. Marcel Siem just lost out to Danny Willett on the European Tour in tough conditions recently and could shock a few. Jacobson and Van Pelt have merits for hanging tough and playing solid golf and may yet have a say. Harrington just is not there any more. I have not backed him once this season and have no intention to do so now. He needs to prove it to me. I am not one for theories. That said, he could get close agin by just hanging around.
I mentioned Leishmania as one who can go well if it gets tough and he produced a fine round yesterday. He might be able to do something pretty outrageous versus the field over the weekend and shock them all. At +3, a frustrated Ernie Els needs to buy a putt or two. He will look at the similarity of his position here and at the British Open. Solid enough, but not really contending. I think he is too far back and his frustration is because he can not hole a putt. If he holes a few, he is one that can move forward. There is some value in the place market for Ernie, although the layers are still wary of this fact. Same point for Harrington as well.
Enjoy the weekend and let's hope that one of my tips before the off does something special. All 5 made it, but realistically only Rory, Laird and Van Pelt have a chance over the weekend.
Regards
DAVE (OneBet)
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