Outright selections
1pt EW Bo Van Pelt at 50/1 (Various)
1.5pts EW Justin Rose at 25/1 (Various)
1pt EW Jason Day at 80/1 (Various)
1pt EW Henrik Stenson at 100/1 (Various, but take 6 places if you can)
1pt EW Scott Piercy at 100/1 (Various, but take 6 places if you can)
Life continues to frustrate, with my golfing blogs limited to last minute rushed updates that do not serve enough value to the reader, who has likely made some decisions already.
I have done my usual research for the event though and believe I have found golfers here who represent true value against the bookmakers price. If you are looking for last minute reasons to believe, or reasons to be swayed, then read on. There might be something in here for you.
I am not going to wax lyrical on the needed attributes for this golf tournament, instead focusing more on who I believe can get it done. However, my thought on the type of players I want to consider are as follows:
Ability to perform in stellar fields
The Barclays field this year is something approaching a major championship or WGC standard. With a roll call of winners since 2007 such as Stricker, Vijay, Kuchar and Dustin Johnson, I expect a classy winner this week, who will be rubber-stamping his status as challenger for the whole shooting match - the Tour Championship itself in 4 weeks time. Any player who can win one of the next three vents will almost certainly be in a win to win it all situation at the Tour Championship.
Straight is good; long and fairly straight is better
Bethpage Black in 2009 followed the recent US Open trend (Olympic Atlhletic Club apart) of longer hitters featuring prominently on the leaderboard, more so than straight hitters. In 2009, adverse conditions left the course soft and hence made it play longer; it was plenty long enough before any rain fell of course. The challenge is less severe this time around as firmer fairways will shorten the course, with less punishment for players missing the short stuff. I saw a tweet from John Senden who guessed that -12 to -14 might get it done this week. Given -4 was the mark in 2009, this I think highlights that the course is more accessible to shorter hitters here. Even in 2009 and 2002 when the course was tougher, players such as Donald and Stricker, who are by no means long, were able to feature.
Hit your greens and scramble impeccably when you miss.
Players will need to keep their score ticking over this week. Greens are small here and ball strikers with a high ball flight have a clear edge. Phil has twice finished 2nd here, which I think should be attractive to players like Dustin Johnson, Bubba Watson and Rory McIlroy. Great scramblers can do well here, but they are 2nd favourite to green finding machines.
Putting will be useful, but is not likely to be the strongest requirement this week.
In particular, I want demonstrably good putters on Bent surfaces here. As I have already said, I believe our winner (or at least a major challenger for the event) is going to be one of the star names in this field. Expect him to have demonstrated great results on bentgrass greened venues previously in his career.
OK, time for the selections
Rory and Tiger do not make my team. I want to pick Rory more of the two. After all, he has just waltzed off with the PGA and his win in the US Open of 2011 will resonate with his backers here. The match up with Tiger is potentially a significant one in the immediate context of the career of both golfers. The tussle for world number 1 just got really interesting and either player can make a real statement in that group. I do not see either player really breaking free of the other and making hay at the top, which could be the pivotal factor come the weekend. This could be entirely wrong, but I just feel too uneasy about either to back them at single figure odds this week.
I have 6 players clearly in mind here. Namely Bo Van Pelt, Justin Rose, Steve Stricker, Scott Piercy, Henrik Stensson and Jason Day. They all rank in the top 10 of my system ranks. Of the 6, I did not expect the last 3 to have ranked so highly and certainly did not have Jason Day in mind.
However, let's look at why they appeal.
With 8 top 10 finishes in 2012 and two top 10s in last years play-offs, Bo Van Pelt is set for another strong week here. He was a solid finishing 4 holes away from earning us a place payout in the PGA, but this is the problem. Van Pelt has 8 top 10s this year, but only one top 5. I keep getting a great run for my money with a guy priced up as not being in the top 10 in most good fields, but am not getting paid. Can I stick with him once more? Yes. He is my number 1 ranked player here after all . He has to place again soon and might just hold on to win one of these things and justify all of the pain. In my recent ranks, he is 18th in driving distance, 19th in accuracy and 9th in greens. My concern is that he may need to scramble better than he usually does this week as he will miss more greens than usual here. However, he is a must back. Sorry for those sick of me.
Justin Rose won a play-off event last year. This appeals hugely to me. He is evolving in to a player at one with the fact that he is a top performer. Rose lost his way for some years but he is top notch in World Golf today and a feature in the World's top 10 this year. Rose could well have placed at the Masters and did so with a great weekend at the PGA. He also landed his first WGC title this year and unlike Mahan, who has fallen badly away, he has maintained his consistency through 2012. Rose ranks 2nd in my Bentgrass ratings for the last 2 years and ranks 2nd in my recent GIR stats. So, we have a player here who will find more greens (and is a great scrambler when he does miss) than most if not all and has some great results on bent surfaces. OK, that's a 2nd player I can not omit.
Mr September, Steve Stricker, has a fantastic play-offs record and has won this event also. Stricker has also been 16th and 23rd here in the US Open. With 3 top 7s in his last 4 events, including 7th at the PGA after a poor start, form is good too. 20th in my recent greens hit stats and one of the very best scramblers on tour, Stricker should go very nicely this week. Unusually, Stricker's putting was less than impeccable earlier in the season but 9th, 20th and 11th in the last 3 regulation events tells you he is right back on song. My only concern with Stricker is his price. I simply can't have him at 25s, but I am very tempted to. Stricker just misses out and is the last guy crossed from my list.
OK, my last 3 guys make the team. Henrik Stenson is back. We were with him last time and after a solid start, he withdrew due to illness. Frustrating. However, 100/1 is massive. I said it last week, but all parts of Stenson's game are in sound working order. I expect him to be in the higher reaches of the leaderboard as long as his illness has not lingered too much. Stenson could be the surprise package that everybody is gutted they have missed this week.
Scott Piercy was one of the big gambles of the PGA. I love the fact that, having done nothing at all to make us doubt him, he is a triple figure price here. Piercy hits it long, is putting really well, has some great results on bent tracks recently and is in arguably the most consistent form of his career. He is the least heralded of my team here, but I think there is space for him to get in the mix. A 48th in the PGA was preceded by 12th, 3rd, 1st and 19th. In the PGA he was 6th after day 1 and, after getting blown away a little on Friday and Saturday, he produced the 12th best Sunday round to move up the leaderboard. There is nothing at all wrong with his game. 100s is a brilliant price.
Finally, Jason Day makes my team. His results are improving and the reason for the improvement are reason for us to want to back him here. First though, Jason Day is undoubtedly the type of player whose odds will collapse if he goes close here. That he is 80/1 almost demands we look at him despite the indifferent year. First of all, Day is something of a bentgrass specialist with a series of great headline results on the surface. He struggled in Friday gusts to miss the cut at the PGA, but we can forgive that. Prior to that, 8th and 29th served notice that he was finding his feet again, especially as the 29th was at Bridgestone, an event where he sat 59th after 2 rounds before moving through. Day also fits the bill for a player who turns up for the big events, as 3 top 13 results in 4 play-off events last year confirms. This pick is one that I will very happy about if it comes in. He is ready to fire. Let's hope it all comes together this week for us.
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
Rate this article:
No comments:
Post a Comment