Outright selections
1pt EW Lee Slattery at 150/1 (Various)
1pt EW Gregory Bourdy at 66/1 (Various)
1pt EW Anders Hansen at 40/1 (Various)
1pt EW Pablo Larrazabal at 50/1 (Various)
1pt EW Brett Rumford at 55/1 (Stan James, 50/1 various)
Proofing to Secret Betting Club since January 12th 2012
Wednesday, 29 August 2012
Tuesday, 28 August 2012
Golf tips - Deutsche Bank Championship Outright selections
Outright selections
2pts EW Luke Donald at 18/1 (victor Chandler)
1.5pts EW Jason Dufner at 20/1 (Various)
1pt EW Geoff Ogilvy at 50/1 (Various)
1pt EW Jason Day at 50/1 (Various)
Hi all
This started as my tournament form guide and has morphed in to my formal preview for the event after it grew out of all proportion. The claims of the leading protagonists on a course form basis are compelling enough for me to go with it. I have done my usual system work and no big outsiders are showing up strongly enough this week. So, here it is. Enjoy (make a nice hot drink and get comfortable before starting)
The usual course/tournament form analysis below.
My course analysis goes back to 2003 and I analyse in the following way:
First, a general comment. This event is stacked with players who have thrived over the years on this course. TPC Boston seems to reward classy players, who can get it done around the greens. No surprise then to see the likes of Stricker, Snedeker, Ogilvy and Donald near the top given this.
So to the individual players. Steve Stricker is ranked 1 here, due to an excellent overall record. Before a surprisingly average 42nd last year, Stricker had finished 9th, 1st, 13th 9th and 7th in the 5 years prior; 4 of those five years (2007-2010) were results gained in the current play-offs format too, of course. Stricker arrives here in good form too. I spent some time talking about his chances last week, before a 54th placed finish somewhat ended the momentum. I am not overly concerned by that finish. It was a tough course and a number of great putters had a hard time on the greens over the weekend in particular. Stricker was 4th in approaches from under 100 yards, 15th in proximity to the hole and 12th in approaches from over 200 yards. Clearly, he is still striking the ball very nicely. It was actually in his around the green game that he struggled. That should not remain for long and the man with a great record around here should go well again. Motivation should not be a factor either. Stricker sits 10th in the Ryder cup standings and will want to try and make a definite statement to DLIII ahead of his wildcard picks being made. A 2nd indifferent week will be very bad timing for Stricker, although he must have a great chance of inclusion even if this does happen. I just can leave him out again this week. Again, I am a little nervous, but I want to see more than 28/1 for a player I do not think has great win claims right now.
Perhaps (definitely) surprisingly, Charley Hoffman ranks 2nd. His win in 2010 is an obvious reason he ranks well, but Hoffman has been in the top 33 in each of the last 4 years showing he can play the course well. I do not think that he merits the 2nd ranking here, especially when you consider the merits of some of the guys below. My system ranks are based upon set criteria, which sometimes throws out oddities such as this. Before I go on though, let's look to what extent I think Hoffman might shock the field and challenge again this year. I don't. 4 MCs coming in to this event is hardly a ringing endorsement of his chances. In finishing 31st when defending last year, Hoffman had placed 10th at the Barclays and 37th and 25th in two of the previous 4 events. In winning in 2010, Hoffman's previous 8 events read 25-27-41-7-4-83-10-27. He is not anywhere near that form and I do not see a challenge here. Hoffman has really been struggling with the flatstick, ranking 94th or worse in his last 4 events for putts per round. This tournament demands that you putt well and, despite some decent tee to green stats for accuracy (Barclays aside) recently, I feel he has far too much to find.
OK, back to the big boys. 1st and 2nd in the first two years of this event (2003 and 2004, in the old format) and 5th and 8th last two years, Adam Scott has a great chance of going well again here. I have a slight mental block in trusting Adam Scott, but I am becoming less ardent about it. In 13 events this year, Scott has 8 top 15 finishes, but only 2 top 5s. One of those should have been a British Open win of course and his form has been only OK since. My problem with Scott is that he is always liable to have a mental snooze for a day or two in an event and that is often costly in a top class field. Obviously, Scott was outstanding for 68 holes at Lytham, but in every event this year he has posted a score that has been the 44th or worse best round in the field on one of the 4 days. It is tough to win when you do that. There in a nutshell is my issue. In 2010, Scott meandered on days 1 and 2, but then produced a great weekend to place. Last year, Scott started well and then really fell away in finishing 8th. There is no doubt he can, but there is plenty of evidence that he will not. Scott is contracting in the market and I have to leave him at prices of around 25s this week.
Geoff Ogilvy is very interesting. He is generally 50s, but that will probably not last as people realise his record here. Since this event gained an increased importance in 2007 and became a play-off event Ogilvy has finished (2007 first) 6-72-7-2-25. That is compelling form. Ogilvy is simmering in current form too and threatening to start performing again right at the head of tournaments. Ogilvy has 10 top 30s in 13 events, but nothing better than 9th. If you see a top 20 market and have nothing to do with the wheelbarrow of cash sat outside your house, you could do worse. Slightly more practically, the Spreadex finishing position market certainly is worthy of consideration when available. I think the reason Ogilvy is not quite there results wise is because his putting is not where he would like it at the moment. 38th in strokes gained putting last week was decent, however, as was 20th in birdie or better. Ogilvy could just score big this week. I think 50s is value.
Jason Day frustrated me last week. We backed him at 80/1 and he showed me that I wasn't crazy to do so. After meandering at +2, Day rallied to finish -1 after day 1 and improved to -2 at halfway, only 5 from the lead. His tournament ended on day 3 with something of a horror round,but he rallied to produce the best round of the day on Sunday. The omens remain good, but can we play Day again here now he is 50s? Day has played here 4 times, finishing 50th, 19th, 2nd and 3rd. Clearly he has a strong affinity with the course. We are again on Bentgrass this week, which is a tick in the box for Day too. Day has not had as good a year this year, but it is a sign of how good a player he is that he has 4 top 10s to date in 2012. Where I believe Day will feel confident this week is that he can get away with less than stellar driving accuracy a lot more this week than he did last. Last week, 95th in driving accuracy played a big part in 97th GIR. However, Day was 15th in greens hit at the Deutsche last year despite only sitting 82nd in DA. What did seem to be in order last week was Day's putting, so if he can "get away" with a couple of less than perfect drives, he may well feature here. Day was 9th in birdie or better last week and 3rd in approaches over 100 yards. So, he is striking his irons well and rolling the putts nicely too. OK, the Aussie charge continues. He makes my team.
Tiger Woods in 7 appearances has a 1st, two 2nds, 7th and 11th twice. But, Tiger is a tough player to get right at the moment. There is much talk of his weekend deceleration and last week is the latest in a lengthening line of such examples. My main problem with Woods is linked to that. Since his full field comeback win at the Arnold Palmer in March, Woods has had 6 bad weekends. The tournaments? The Masters, The Players, The US Open, The British Open, The PGA and the Barclays. Apart from WGC Bridgestone, where Woods came from deep to make the top 10, he has failed in the 6 biggest events he has played in since April over the weekend. I have two other issues also. First, Tiger's stats were just OK last week. Unlike Jason Day, there is no feeling that he just needs a tweak or a more benevolent course. Woods struggled with the putter, was average off the tee, was average scrambling and just did not give any confidence that he can win this week. He seems to be striking his irons pretty well, but still not overly compelling. Finally, I am not sure how his health is, given the tweaked back and pain experienced last week. Had this not been a key play-offs event, I think he may have pulled out by now. He may yet still. I have to swerve Woods this week, but he can win if his ball is more readily in play as it should be.
Thoughts now on the rest of the top 10 ranked players. Phil is next, but, if you didn't believe last week at Bethpage Black, there is probably not enough reason to believe here, despite the 2007 win and 10th last year. Phil's odds have held too, because last week was by no means awful. I can't have him this week, although the two good rounds from 4 he did shoot last week suggests a game that may be coming around.
Brandt Snedeker has been 3rd and 5th last 2 years and is in very good form. After four average events coming in, Snedeker went 3rd at the Barclays and 3rd here last year. Well only 3 average events coming in this year, with 2nd at the Barclays is a nice omen ahead of this event. 4th in strokes gained putting last week and 20th in birdie or better, Snedeker really has a good chance to feature here. The question is whether I can have him at 28/1. I think I am just going to leave him.
Jason Dufner has had a week off, the week after I had a week off backing him in a tournament. OK, I have not been quite that ardent about it, but I always think hard about whether to have Dufner in my team. Dufner is this year's Webb Simpson for me in many ways, having delivered big from relative obscurity prior. Dufner was 2nd in 2009 here and followed up with 18th and 31st last 2 years also. After giving some guys a headstart in the FedEx cup race last week, Dufner has some catching up to do. The venue at which Webb did it last year has some nice symmetry for me given the similarities in the seasons of both. Last year, Dufner was 20th in putts per round here having been 88th and 95th in the two events prior. So, 47th in putts last time out worries me less than 9th and 4th before that encourages me. The difference is his ballstriking, which has moved from good to sensational in 2012. I think he has a glorious chance this week as long as he kept his eye on the practice side of things in the week off. Dufner's Zurich classic maiden win came after a week off, so I am sure he can keep the momentum rolling here.
Vijay is playing pretty well and has a great past record here. However, I can't trust his weekends any more. At 80s and generally 70s and lower, he has to be overlooked. 1st in 04 and 08 and 2nd in 06 tells you of his past prowess. Good luck if you are on him.
Finally, Luke Donald. Luke has been 2nd and 3rd last two years. And, on a course that tends to favour those with a stellar short game, it is no surprise at all to see. With par 5s that Donald can look at in 2 blows and an impeccable wedge game when he can't, Donald is very likely to keep the scoreboard ticking over. After last year's double money list win, it has been fairly quiet this year for him and he has been vocal about his own failure in majors. 3 top 10 finishes in 5 events and nothing worse than 32nd in that time tells you his game is in shape. I suspect he will be keen to again try and silence the doubters with a strong play-offs. He played well last week and should challenge again this. A note of caution: Donald's 3rd rounds have been poor this year on the whole. If he gets his Saturday right, he will be very close in this event I feel. A note of optimism: Since the Deutsche in 2010, Luke Donald has had 29 further top 10s in strokeplay events. If he fails to get a top 10 this week, it will be the first time he has started a top 10 streak and failed to follow it up with another since then (aside from the season ending European Tour event in Abu Dhabi). That is my killer stat for the week - Luke Donald is in my team too.
I started off trying to do my usual tournament form preview, but I feel I have written enough and picked enough golfers to consider my selections complete. Good luck to you all this week
Regards
Dave
2pts EW Luke Donald at 18/1 (victor Chandler)
1.5pts EW Jason Dufner at 20/1 (Various)
1pt EW Geoff Ogilvy at 50/1 (Various)
1pt EW Jason Day at 50/1 (Various)
Hi all
This started as my tournament form guide and has morphed in to my formal preview for the event after it grew out of all proportion. The claims of the leading protagonists on a course form basis are compelling enough for me to go with it. I have done my usual system work and no big outsiders are showing up strongly enough this week. So, here it is. Enjoy (make a nice hot drink and get comfortable before starting)
The usual course/tournament form analysis below.
My course analysis goes back to 2003 and I analyse in the following way:
- Tournament experience, with a maximum 8 points if a player has played 6 or more times
- Tournament history, with a maximum 10 points if a player has ever won the event, with further increments down to down to 2 points for any top 25.
- Tournament form in 2012, 2011 and 2010, with up to 4 points available for each year.
- Course experience points - As per tournament form, but for the specific course in use. In reality, this is not a factor here as TPC Boston has been the host since this event first played in 2003. Although the tournament has only been in its current guise since 2007, TPC Boston's permanent position as tournament host makes it worthwhile going back to 2003 for indicators.
As we are looking at course form in years gone by, not all in the field make the list due to 2012 being their debut year.
So, looking purely at course and history form, with a ranking system that aims to differentiate between players who do consistently well and those who don't (either one hit wonders or those consistent performers who do not really challenge), we get the following results, with further analysis below the table:
First, a general comment. This event is stacked with players who have thrived over the years on this course. TPC Boston seems to reward classy players, who can get it done around the greens. No surprise then to see the likes of Stricker, Snedeker, Ogilvy and Donald near the top given this.
So to the individual players. Steve Stricker is ranked 1 here, due to an excellent overall record. Before a surprisingly average 42nd last year, Stricker had finished 9th, 1st, 13th 9th and 7th in the 5 years prior; 4 of those five years (2007-2010) were results gained in the current play-offs format too, of course. Stricker arrives here in good form too. I spent some time talking about his chances last week, before a 54th placed finish somewhat ended the momentum. I am not overly concerned by that finish. It was a tough course and a number of great putters had a hard time on the greens over the weekend in particular. Stricker was 4th in approaches from under 100 yards, 15th in proximity to the hole and 12th in approaches from over 200 yards. Clearly, he is still striking the ball very nicely. It was actually in his around the green game that he struggled. That should not remain for long and the man with a great record around here should go well again. Motivation should not be a factor either. Stricker sits 10th in the Ryder cup standings and will want to try and make a definite statement to DLIII ahead of his wildcard picks being made. A 2nd indifferent week will be very bad timing for Stricker, although he must have a great chance of inclusion even if this does happen. I just can leave him out again this week. Again, I am a little nervous, but I want to see more than 28/1 for a player I do not think has great win claims right now.
Perhaps (definitely) surprisingly, Charley Hoffman ranks 2nd. His win in 2010 is an obvious reason he ranks well, but Hoffman has been in the top 33 in each of the last 4 years showing he can play the course well. I do not think that he merits the 2nd ranking here, especially when you consider the merits of some of the guys below. My system ranks are based upon set criteria, which sometimes throws out oddities such as this. Before I go on though, let's look to what extent I think Hoffman might shock the field and challenge again this year. I don't. 4 MCs coming in to this event is hardly a ringing endorsement of his chances. In finishing 31st when defending last year, Hoffman had placed 10th at the Barclays and 37th and 25th in two of the previous 4 events. In winning in 2010, Hoffman's previous 8 events read 25-27-41-7-4-83-10-27. He is not anywhere near that form and I do not see a challenge here. Hoffman has really been struggling with the flatstick, ranking 94th or worse in his last 4 events for putts per round. This tournament demands that you putt well and, despite some decent tee to green stats for accuracy (Barclays aside) recently, I feel he has far too much to find.
OK, back to the big boys. 1st and 2nd in the first two years of this event (2003 and 2004, in the old format) and 5th and 8th last two years, Adam Scott has a great chance of going well again here. I have a slight mental block in trusting Adam Scott, but I am becoming less ardent about it. In 13 events this year, Scott has 8 top 15 finishes, but only 2 top 5s. One of those should have been a British Open win of course and his form has been only OK since. My problem with Scott is that he is always liable to have a mental snooze for a day or two in an event and that is often costly in a top class field. Obviously, Scott was outstanding for 68 holes at Lytham, but in every event this year he has posted a score that has been the 44th or worse best round in the field on one of the 4 days. It is tough to win when you do that. There in a nutshell is my issue. In 2010, Scott meandered on days 1 and 2, but then produced a great weekend to place. Last year, Scott started well and then really fell away in finishing 8th. There is no doubt he can, but there is plenty of evidence that he will not. Scott is contracting in the market and I have to leave him at prices of around 25s this week.
Geoff Ogilvy is very interesting. He is generally 50s, but that will probably not last as people realise his record here. Since this event gained an increased importance in 2007 and became a play-off event Ogilvy has finished (2007 first) 6-72-7-2-25. That is compelling form. Ogilvy is simmering in current form too and threatening to start performing again right at the head of tournaments. Ogilvy has 10 top 30s in 13 events, but nothing better than 9th. If you see a top 20 market and have nothing to do with the wheelbarrow of cash sat outside your house, you could do worse. Slightly more practically, the Spreadex finishing position market certainly is worthy of consideration when available. I think the reason Ogilvy is not quite there results wise is because his putting is not where he would like it at the moment. 38th in strokes gained putting last week was decent, however, as was 20th in birdie or better. Ogilvy could just score big this week. I think 50s is value.
Jason Day frustrated me last week. We backed him at 80/1 and he showed me that I wasn't crazy to do so. After meandering at +2, Day rallied to finish -1 after day 1 and improved to -2 at halfway, only 5 from the lead. His tournament ended on day 3 with something of a horror round,but he rallied to produce the best round of the day on Sunday. The omens remain good, but can we play Day again here now he is 50s? Day has played here 4 times, finishing 50th, 19th, 2nd and 3rd. Clearly he has a strong affinity with the course. We are again on Bentgrass this week, which is a tick in the box for Day too. Day has not had as good a year this year, but it is a sign of how good a player he is that he has 4 top 10s to date in 2012. Where I believe Day will feel confident this week is that he can get away with less than stellar driving accuracy a lot more this week than he did last. Last week, 95th in driving accuracy played a big part in 97th GIR. However, Day was 15th in greens hit at the Deutsche last year despite only sitting 82nd in DA. What did seem to be in order last week was Day's putting, so if he can "get away" with a couple of less than perfect drives, he may well feature here. Day was 9th in birdie or better last week and 3rd in approaches over 100 yards. So, he is striking his irons well and rolling the putts nicely too. OK, the Aussie charge continues. He makes my team.
Tiger Woods in 7 appearances has a 1st, two 2nds, 7th and 11th twice. But, Tiger is a tough player to get right at the moment. There is much talk of his weekend deceleration and last week is the latest in a lengthening line of such examples. My main problem with Woods is linked to that. Since his full field comeback win at the Arnold Palmer in March, Woods has had 6 bad weekends. The tournaments? The Masters, The Players, The US Open, The British Open, The PGA and the Barclays. Apart from WGC Bridgestone, where Woods came from deep to make the top 10, he has failed in the 6 biggest events he has played in since April over the weekend. I have two other issues also. First, Tiger's stats were just OK last week. Unlike Jason Day, there is no feeling that he just needs a tweak or a more benevolent course. Woods struggled with the putter, was average off the tee, was average scrambling and just did not give any confidence that he can win this week. He seems to be striking his irons pretty well, but still not overly compelling. Finally, I am not sure how his health is, given the tweaked back and pain experienced last week. Had this not been a key play-offs event, I think he may have pulled out by now. He may yet still. I have to swerve Woods this week, but he can win if his ball is more readily in play as it should be.
Thoughts now on the rest of the top 10 ranked players. Phil is next, but, if you didn't believe last week at Bethpage Black, there is probably not enough reason to believe here, despite the 2007 win and 10th last year. Phil's odds have held too, because last week was by no means awful. I can't have him this week, although the two good rounds from 4 he did shoot last week suggests a game that may be coming around.
Brandt Snedeker has been 3rd and 5th last 2 years and is in very good form. After four average events coming in, Snedeker went 3rd at the Barclays and 3rd here last year. Well only 3 average events coming in this year, with 2nd at the Barclays is a nice omen ahead of this event. 4th in strokes gained putting last week and 20th in birdie or better, Snedeker really has a good chance to feature here. The question is whether I can have him at 28/1. I think I am just going to leave him.
Jason Dufner has had a week off, the week after I had a week off backing him in a tournament. OK, I have not been quite that ardent about it, but I always think hard about whether to have Dufner in my team. Dufner is this year's Webb Simpson for me in many ways, having delivered big from relative obscurity prior. Dufner was 2nd in 2009 here and followed up with 18th and 31st last 2 years also. After giving some guys a headstart in the FedEx cup race last week, Dufner has some catching up to do. The venue at which Webb did it last year has some nice symmetry for me given the similarities in the seasons of both. Last year, Dufner was 20th in putts per round here having been 88th and 95th in the two events prior. So, 47th in putts last time out worries me less than 9th and 4th before that encourages me. The difference is his ballstriking, which has moved from good to sensational in 2012. I think he has a glorious chance this week as long as he kept his eye on the practice side of things in the week off. Dufner's Zurich classic maiden win came after a week off, so I am sure he can keep the momentum rolling here.
Vijay is playing pretty well and has a great past record here. However, I can't trust his weekends any more. At 80s and generally 70s and lower, he has to be overlooked. 1st in 04 and 08 and 2nd in 06 tells you of his past prowess. Good luck if you are on him.
Finally, Luke Donald. Luke has been 2nd and 3rd last two years. And, on a course that tends to favour those with a stellar short game, it is no surprise at all to see. With par 5s that Donald can look at in 2 blows and an impeccable wedge game when he can't, Donald is very likely to keep the scoreboard ticking over. After last year's double money list win, it has been fairly quiet this year for him and he has been vocal about his own failure in majors. 3 top 10 finishes in 5 events and nothing worse than 32nd in that time tells you his game is in shape. I suspect he will be keen to again try and silence the doubters with a strong play-offs. He played well last week and should challenge again this. A note of caution: Donald's 3rd rounds have been poor this year on the whole. If he gets his Saturday right, he will be very close in this event I feel. A note of optimism: Since the Deutsche in 2010, Luke Donald has had 29 further top 10s in strokeplay events. If he fails to get a top 10 this week, it will be the first time he has started a top 10 streak and failed to follow it up with another since then (aside from the season ending European Tour event in Abu Dhabi). That is my killer stat for the week - Luke Donald is in my team too.
I started off trying to do my usual tournament form preview, but I feel I have written enough and picked enough golfers to consider my selections complete. Good luck to you all this week
Regards
Dave
Wednesday, 22 August 2012
Golf tips - The Barclays Outright selections
Outright selections
1pt EW Bo Van Pelt at 50/1 (Various)
1.5pts EW Justin Rose at 25/1 (Various)
1pt EW Jason Day at 80/1 (Various)
1pt EW Henrik Stenson at 100/1 (Various, but take 6 places if you can)
1pt EW Scott Piercy at 100/1 (Various, but take 6 places if you can)
Life continues to frustrate, with my golfing blogs limited to last minute rushed updates that do not serve enough value to the reader, who has likely made some decisions already.
I have done my usual research for the event though and believe I have found golfers here who represent true value against the bookmakers price. If you are looking for last minute reasons to believe, or reasons to be swayed, then read on. There might be something in here for you.
I am not going to wax lyrical on the needed attributes for this golf tournament, instead focusing more on who I believe can get it done. However, my thought on the type of players I want to consider are as follows:
Ability to perform in stellar fields
The Barclays field this year is something approaching a major championship or WGC standard. With a roll call of winners since 2007 such as Stricker, Vijay, Kuchar and Dustin Johnson, I expect a classy winner this week, who will be rubber-stamping his status as challenger for the whole shooting match - the Tour Championship itself in 4 weeks time. Any player who can win one of the next three vents will almost certainly be in a win to win it all situation at the Tour Championship.
Straight is good; long and fairly straight is better
Bethpage Black in 2009 followed the recent US Open trend (Olympic Atlhletic Club apart) of longer hitters featuring prominently on the leaderboard, more so than straight hitters. In 2009, adverse conditions left the course soft and hence made it play longer; it was plenty long enough before any rain fell of course. The challenge is less severe this time around as firmer fairways will shorten the course, with less punishment for players missing the short stuff. I saw a tweet from John Senden who guessed that -12 to -14 might get it done this week. Given -4 was the mark in 2009, this I think highlights that the course is more accessible to shorter hitters here. Even in 2009 and 2002 when the course was tougher, players such as Donald and Stricker, who are by no means long, were able to feature.
Hit your greens and scramble impeccably when you miss.
Players will need to keep their score ticking over this week. Greens are small here and ball strikers with a high ball flight have a clear edge. Phil has twice finished 2nd here, which I think should be attractive to players like Dustin Johnson, Bubba Watson and Rory McIlroy. Great scramblers can do well here, but they are 2nd favourite to green finding machines.
Putting will be useful, but is not likely to be the strongest requirement this week.
In particular, I want demonstrably good putters on Bent surfaces here. As I have already said, I believe our winner (or at least a major challenger for the event) is going to be one of the star names in this field. Expect him to have demonstrated great results on bentgrass greened venues previously in his career.
OK, time for the selections
Rory and Tiger do not make my team. I want to pick Rory more of the two. After all, he has just waltzed off with the PGA and his win in the US Open of 2011 will resonate with his backers here. The match up with Tiger is potentially a significant one in the immediate context of the career of both golfers. The tussle for world number 1 just got really interesting and either player can make a real statement in that group. I do not see either player really breaking free of the other and making hay at the top, which could be the pivotal factor come the weekend. This could be entirely wrong, but I just feel too uneasy about either to back them at single figure odds this week.
I have 6 players clearly in mind here. Namely Bo Van Pelt, Justin Rose, Steve Stricker, Scott Piercy, Henrik Stensson and Jason Day. They all rank in the top 10 of my system ranks. Of the 6, I did not expect the last 3 to have ranked so highly and certainly did not have Jason Day in mind.
However, let's look at why they appeal.
With 8 top 10 finishes in 2012 and two top 10s in last years play-offs, Bo Van Pelt is set for another strong week here. He was a solid finishing 4 holes away from earning us a place payout in the PGA, but this is the problem. Van Pelt has 8 top 10s this year, but only one top 5. I keep getting a great run for my money with a guy priced up as not being in the top 10 in most good fields, but am not getting paid. Can I stick with him once more? Yes. He is my number 1 ranked player here after all . He has to place again soon and might just hold on to win one of these things and justify all of the pain. In my recent ranks, he is 18th in driving distance, 19th in accuracy and 9th in greens. My concern is that he may need to scramble better than he usually does this week as he will miss more greens than usual here. However, he is a must back. Sorry for those sick of me.
Justin Rose won a play-off event last year. This appeals hugely to me. He is evolving in to a player at one with the fact that he is a top performer. Rose lost his way for some years but he is top notch in World Golf today and a feature in the World's top 10 this year. Rose could well have placed at the Masters and did so with a great weekend at the PGA. He also landed his first WGC title this year and unlike Mahan, who has fallen badly away, he has maintained his consistency through 2012. Rose ranks 2nd in my Bentgrass ratings for the last 2 years and ranks 2nd in my recent GIR stats. So, we have a player here who will find more greens (and is a great scrambler when he does miss) than most if not all and has some great results on bent surfaces. OK, that's a 2nd player I can not omit.
Mr September, Steve Stricker, has a fantastic play-offs record and has won this event also. Stricker has also been 16th and 23rd here in the US Open. With 3 top 7s in his last 4 events, including 7th at the PGA after a poor start, form is good too. 20th in my recent greens hit stats and one of the very best scramblers on tour, Stricker should go very nicely this week. Unusually, Stricker's putting was less than impeccable earlier in the season but 9th, 20th and 11th in the last 3 regulation events tells you he is right back on song. My only concern with Stricker is his price. I simply can't have him at 25s, but I am very tempted to. Stricker just misses out and is the last guy crossed from my list.
OK, my last 3 guys make the team. Henrik Stenson is back. We were with him last time and after a solid start, he withdrew due to illness. Frustrating. However, 100/1 is massive. I said it last week, but all parts of Stenson's game are in sound working order. I expect him to be in the higher reaches of the leaderboard as long as his illness has not lingered too much. Stenson could be the surprise package that everybody is gutted they have missed this week.
Scott Piercy was one of the big gambles of the PGA. I love the fact that, having done nothing at all to make us doubt him, he is a triple figure price here. Piercy hits it long, is putting really well, has some great results on bent tracks recently and is in arguably the most consistent form of his career. He is the least heralded of my team here, but I think there is space for him to get in the mix. A 48th in the PGA was preceded by 12th, 3rd, 1st and 19th. In the PGA he was 6th after day 1 and, after getting blown away a little on Friday and Saturday, he produced the 12th best Sunday round to move up the leaderboard. There is nothing at all wrong with his game. 100s is a brilliant price.
Finally, Jason Day makes my team. His results are improving and the reason for the improvement are reason for us to want to back him here. First though, Jason Day is undoubtedly the type of player whose odds will collapse if he goes close here. That he is 80/1 almost demands we look at him despite the indifferent year. First of all, Day is something of a bentgrass specialist with a series of great headline results on the surface. He struggled in Friday gusts to miss the cut at the PGA, but we can forgive that. Prior to that, 8th and 29th served notice that he was finding his feet again, especially as the 29th was at Bridgestone, an event where he sat 59th after 2 rounds before moving through. Day also fits the bill for a player who turns up for the big events, as 3 top 13 results in 4 play-off events last year confirms. This pick is one that I will very happy about if it comes in. He is ready to fire. Let's hope it all comes together this week for us.
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
1pt EW Bo Van Pelt at 50/1 (Various)
1.5pts EW Justin Rose at 25/1 (Various)
1pt EW Jason Day at 80/1 (Various)
1pt EW Henrik Stenson at 100/1 (Various, but take 6 places if you can)
1pt EW Scott Piercy at 100/1 (Various, but take 6 places if you can)
Life continues to frustrate, with my golfing blogs limited to last minute rushed updates that do not serve enough value to the reader, who has likely made some decisions already.
I have done my usual research for the event though and believe I have found golfers here who represent true value against the bookmakers price. If you are looking for last minute reasons to believe, or reasons to be swayed, then read on. There might be something in here for you.
I am not going to wax lyrical on the needed attributes for this golf tournament, instead focusing more on who I believe can get it done. However, my thought on the type of players I want to consider are as follows:
Ability to perform in stellar fields
The Barclays field this year is something approaching a major championship or WGC standard. With a roll call of winners since 2007 such as Stricker, Vijay, Kuchar and Dustin Johnson, I expect a classy winner this week, who will be rubber-stamping his status as challenger for the whole shooting match - the Tour Championship itself in 4 weeks time. Any player who can win one of the next three vents will almost certainly be in a win to win it all situation at the Tour Championship.
Straight is good; long and fairly straight is better
Bethpage Black in 2009 followed the recent US Open trend (Olympic Atlhletic Club apart) of longer hitters featuring prominently on the leaderboard, more so than straight hitters. In 2009, adverse conditions left the course soft and hence made it play longer; it was plenty long enough before any rain fell of course. The challenge is less severe this time around as firmer fairways will shorten the course, with less punishment for players missing the short stuff. I saw a tweet from John Senden who guessed that -12 to -14 might get it done this week. Given -4 was the mark in 2009, this I think highlights that the course is more accessible to shorter hitters here. Even in 2009 and 2002 when the course was tougher, players such as Donald and Stricker, who are by no means long, were able to feature.
Hit your greens and scramble impeccably when you miss.
Players will need to keep their score ticking over this week. Greens are small here and ball strikers with a high ball flight have a clear edge. Phil has twice finished 2nd here, which I think should be attractive to players like Dustin Johnson, Bubba Watson and Rory McIlroy. Great scramblers can do well here, but they are 2nd favourite to green finding machines.
Putting will be useful, but is not likely to be the strongest requirement this week.
In particular, I want demonstrably good putters on Bent surfaces here. As I have already said, I believe our winner (or at least a major challenger for the event) is going to be one of the star names in this field. Expect him to have demonstrated great results on bentgrass greened venues previously in his career.
OK, time for the selections
Rory and Tiger do not make my team. I want to pick Rory more of the two. After all, he has just waltzed off with the PGA and his win in the US Open of 2011 will resonate with his backers here. The match up with Tiger is potentially a significant one in the immediate context of the career of both golfers. The tussle for world number 1 just got really interesting and either player can make a real statement in that group. I do not see either player really breaking free of the other and making hay at the top, which could be the pivotal factor come the weekend. This could be entirely wrong, but I just feel too uneasy about either to back them at single figure odds this week.
I have 6 players clearly in mind here. Namely Bo Van Pelt, Justin Rose, Steve Stricker, Scott Piercy, Henrik Stensson and Jason Day. They all rank in the top 10 of my system ranks. Of the 6, I did not expect the last 3 to have ranked so highly and certainly did not have Jason Day in mind.
However, let's look at why they appeal.
With 8 top 10 finishes in 2012 and two top 10s in last years play-offs, Bo Van Pelt is set for another strong week here. He was a solid finishing 4 holes away from earning us a place payout in the PGA, but this is the problem. Van Pelt has 8 top 10s this year, but only one top 5. I keep getting a great run for my money with a guy priced up as not being in the top 10 in most good fields, but am not getting paid. Can I stick with him once more? Yes. He is my number 1 ranked player here after all . He has to place again soon and might just hold on to win one of these things and justify all of the pain. In my recent ranks, he is 18th in driving distance, 19th in accuracy and 9th in greens. My concern is that he may need to scramble better than he usually does this week as he will miss more greens than usual here. However, he is a must back. Sorry for those sick of me.
Justin Rose won a play-off event last year. This appeals hugely to me. He is evolving in to a player at one with the fact that he is a top performer. Rose lost his way for some years but he is top notch in World Golf today and a feature in the World's top 10 this year. Rose could well have placed at the Masters and did so with a great weekend at the PGA. He also landed his first WGC title this year and unlike Mahan, who has fallen badly away, he has maintained his consistency through 2012. Rose ranks 2nd in my Bentgrass ratings for the last 2 years and ranks 2nd in my recent GIR stats. So, we have a player here who will find more greens (and is a great scrambler when he does miss) than most if not all and has some great results on bent surfaces. OK, that's a 2nd player I can not omit.
Mr September, Steve Stricker, has a fantastic play-offs record and has won this event also. Stricker has also been 16th and 23rd here in the US Open. With 3 top 7s in his last 4 events, including 7th at the PGA after a poor start, form is good too. 20th in my recent greens hit stats and one of the very best scramblers on tour, Stricker should go very nicely this week. Unusually, Stricker's putting was less than impeccable earlier in the season but 9th, 20th and 11th in the last 3 regulation events tells you he is right back on song. My only concern with Stricker is his price. I simply can't have him at 25s, but I am very tempted to. Stricker just misses out and is the last guy crossed from my list.
OK, my last 3 guys make the team. Henrik Stenson is back. We were with him last time and after a solid start, he withdrew due to illness. Frustrating. However, 100/1 is massive. I said it last week, but all parts of Stenson's game are in sound working order. I expect him to be in the higher reaches of the leaderboard as long as his illness has not lingered too much. Stenson could be the surprise package that everybody is gutted they have missed this week.
Scott Piercy was one of the big gambles of the PGA. I love the fact that, having done nothing at all to make us doubt him, he is a triple figure price here. Piercy hits it long, is putting really well, has some great results on bent tracks recently and is in arguably the most consistent form of his career. He is the least heralded of my team here, but I think there is space for him to get in the mix. A 48th in the PGA was preceded by 12th, 3rd, 1st and 19th. In the PGA he was 6th after day 1 and, after getting blown away a little on Friday and Saturday, he produced the 12th best Sunday round to move up the leaderboard. There is nothing at all wrong with his game. 100s is a brilliant price.
Finally, Jason Day makes my team. His results are improving and the reason for the improvement are reason for us to want to back him here. First though, Jason Day is undoubtedly the type of player whose odds will collapse if he goes close here. That he is 80/1 almost demands we look at him despite the indifferent year. First of all, Day is something of a bentgrass specialist with a series of great headline results on the surface. He struggled in Friday gusts to miss the cut at the PGA, but we can forgive that. Prior to that, 8th and 29th served notice that he was finding his feet again, especially as the 29th was at Bridgestone, an event where he sat 59th after 2 rounds before moving through. Day also fits the bill for a player who turns up for the big events, as 3 top 13 results in 4 play-off events last year confirms. This pick is one that I will very happy about if it comes in. He is ready to fire. Let's hope it all comes together this week for us.
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
Saturday, 18 August 2012
Golf tips - Wyndham Championship midpoint considerations
Midpoint selection
1pt EW Matt Every at 35/1 (BlueSQ, 33/1 various)
With the withdrawal of Henrik Stenson when decently placed after round 1 and with Kevin Stadler starting slowly, it seems I need to look elsewhere for my winner this week. We chose a good tournament for Kyle Thompson to make only his 2nd cut of the year and our top 20 chances are still alive there.
The following chart shows the position of the eventual winner at halfway since 2001 in this event.
The right hand column ranks the players' improvement over the weekend when Top 20 at halfway. I have gone down to T35th this week. Ranked first is DeLaet, who is a go to player of mine when conditions set up well for him. Followers will have shared the near miss pain of backing him at 100/1 and 200/1 so far this year. I can't back him here though. Injury last year means we only have 3 records of Delaet in the top 20 at halfway from this year. However, from tracing back through 2010 also, in 49 made cuts, DeLaet had put together 2 very good rounds on precisely 0 occasions over the weekend. He will need to sustain a charge to place this week, so is overlooked.
Nicolas Colaserts ranks 2nd. 9 times he has been in the top 20 at halfway this year, going on to place 3 times. However, on two of those occasions, he was already in the top 5 at this stage. I can't back him, although 22/1 is very close to being backable.
Charl Schwartzel is coming back to form. 7 shots from the lead and 66/1 is appealing on the surface of things and he ranks 3rd in weekend performance in this analysis. However, I have no instances in the last two years of him placing from any lower than 18th at this stage. He is 22nd at present. His record of staying in touch after a strong start is impeccable, so I may well be advising Charl the next time he is in the top 8 or so. However, he is just too far away for my tastes this week.
As the 100/30 (3s generally) favourite, Webb Simpson has to be considered as a win only proposition Ranked 4th in our 46 man field above, clearly he has a decent chance of being close to the summit on Sunday. Webb Simpson had 14 bad rounds of golf in 2011, the 13th of which was in the PGA. Then, he won the Wyndham and went on a great run, threatening the leaders virtually every time he played. Well, he has 14 rounds bad rounds of golf so far this year and is starting to come to the boil again. Simpson's 3 tour wins have come from 2nd (here), 18th (Deutsche) and 29th (US Open) at this stage. He has twice led the field at halfway, finishing 9th and 7th. When 2nd at halfway, he has finished 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th. He has to have a great chance. Let's look at his closest pursuers before deciding to make a play here.
Jimmy Walker tends to decelerate over the weekend. This course likes to crown first time winners, but is Walker going to continue that trend? Walker led the Valero Texas Open in 2010, eventually finishing a solid 3rd after a good weekend. This year, he has been in the top 5 on three occasions at this stage. However, after going on to finish 4th at Northern Trust, he has imploded at the Honda Classic and AT&T, finishing 67th and 32nd respectively. With such quality around him, I would be very surprised were he to win here. 7/1 is pretty dire odds.
Tim Clark is a classy player, but trusting this 1 time winner to go on and win an event is always tough. At 8/1, I can not back him, especially as he is yet to put together 4 good rounds in a tournament since his return from injury. Sergio Garcia needs a great finish here to push Poulter out of the final Ryder Cup qualifying place. I thought hard about backing him to be 36 hole leader here and am rueful in seeing him T3rd now. The reason I looked more at the 36 hole option is because Garcia has not put together a good weekend all season, aside from the stunning charge in the Northern Trust Open, which almost brought victory. He can win from here if he stays dialled in, but his confidence seems to have been down this year, and I can't back him at 8/1 either, despite the incentive. Finally Carl Pettersson. Pettersson recovered well yesterday and is 2nd favourite at 6/1. Excluding the limited field Hyundai, Pettersson failed to get in the top 5 at halfway in 2011. However, 2012 has seen Pettersson here 4 times in 2012. Of those 4 times, Pettersson has finished 2nd twice and 1st once, with only a poor weekend at the Northern Trust blotting his record. With his form here over the years as well, he is a live threat.
At 35/1, I can not ignore Matt Every. My blueprint in backing players at this stage from a little off the pace is to find players that dial in when in contention. In 2012, Every has fired on all 5 times he has been in the top 30 at halfway. Mid way positions first, with final positions in brackets: 1 (6), 2 (3), 16 (8), 3 (2), 26 (6). I am getting around 8/1 here that Every places again. With the instances of players winning for the first time here as well and tight par 70s being to his liking this year, Every makes my team. Bud Cauley is on the same score, has the same number of wins - 0 - and yet is over half the price, with a less compelling performance over the weekend when in the mix. That said, his back to back 4th place finishes coming in are the reason for this. Cauley is too short for me though.
I am also going to have a small play on Jonas Blixt in the top 10 market on BetFair. Blixt is a country mile off the pace at -1, but has put together great 3rd rounds the last 3 times he has made the cut. I can't advise a formal bet, because there is only £10 at 65s available. But, I really like the price and am happy to back that he gets hot again at those prices. If you can find any way to get some money on Blixt at those sort of numbers, it is not the worst play at all. I think he is just too far away to be backable in the place market, but the huge odds available here are interesting as a back to lay option also.
So, am I backing Webb? No. There is too much quality right behind him in my view for 3/1 to be good enough value. I think he is the most likely winner, but 12/1 before the off down to 3 only a shot ahead of 4 of the pre-event favourites does not quite stack up for me, especially as the 12s was too tight to begin with.
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
1pt EW Matt Every at 35/1 (BlueSQ, 33/1 various)
With the withdrawal of Henrik Stenson when decently placed after round 1 and with Kevin Stadler starting slowly, it seems I need to look elsewhere for my winner this week. We chose a good tournament for Kyle Thompson to make only his 2nd cut of the year and our top 20 chances are still alive there.
The following chart shows the position of the eventual winner at halfway since 2001 in this event.
Aside from 2006 and 2007, players have had to be right in the mix at halfway to win. The event has only been played at Sedgefield since 2008 of course, since which time the winner has been 1st, 1st, 1st and 2nd at halfway.
Last year, Webb Simpson sat 2nd before going on to have a strong weekend and win by 3 shots. He is the very obvious favourite again this year. The pre 2008 results are not entirely without use as winning scores were broadly similar at Forest Oaks too. Snedeker's 66-63 weekend to win in 2007 from 37th position after round 2 shows that in low scoring events, it is possible for a player to make giant strides. However, generally it is extremely tough to win from deep, because one of the leaders is always like to shoot at least one low round over the weekend.
As you may expect, there are many instances of players getting hot over the weekend and placing. The table below shows this.
Let's look more specifically at the Sedgefield results here. In 2008, Laird and Beem stormed through to place from 61st, while JJ Henry also placed from 45th at halfway. In '09, Bohn and Sutherland were able to place from 41st. In 2010, Michael Sim placed from 25th and last year, McNeill (35th to 2nd), Vijay (19th to T4th), Kim (44th to T4th), Howell III (19th to T4th) and Pettersson (35th to T4th) all made the places from deep.
So, it seems that to find our winner, we should look at the head of the leaderboard, but we should certainly not rule out players charging from deep to at least place.
With that in mind, let's try to dissect which of our leaders can get it done and who may be able to make a hero charge. From the last two years on tour, the following table shows how players have performed when in the top 20 at the post-cut stage.
Nicolas Colaserts ranks 2nd. 9 times he has been in the top 20 at halfway this year, going on to place 3 times. However, on two of those occasions, he was already in the top 5 at this stage. I can't back him, although 22/1 is very close to being backable.
Charl Schwartzel is coming back to form. 7 shots from the lead and 66/1 is appealing on the surface of things and he ranks 3rd in weekend performance in this analysis. However, I have no instances in the last two years of him placing from any lower than 18th at this stage. He is 22nd at present. His record of staying in touch after a strong start is impeccable, so I may well be advising Charl the next time he is in the top 8 or so. However, he is just too far away for my tastes this week.
As the 100/30 (3s generally) favourite, Webb Simpson has to be considered as a win only proposition Ranked 4th in our 46 man field above, clearly he has a decent chance of being close to the summit on Sunday. Webb Simpson had 14 bad rounds of golf in 2011, the 13th of which was in the PGA. Then, he won the Wyndham and went on a great run, threatening the leaders virtually every time he played. Well, he has 14 rounds bad rounds of golf so far this year and is starting to come to the boil again. Simpson's 3 tour wins have come from 2nd (here), 18th (Deutsche) and 29th (US Open) at this stage. He has twice led the field at halfway, finishing 9th and 7th. When 2nd at halfway, he has finished 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th. He has to have a great chance. Let's look at his closest pursuers before deciding to make a play here.
Jimmy Walker tends to decelerate over the weekend. This course likes to crown first time winners, but is Walker going to continue that trend? Walker led the Valero Texas Open in 2010, eventually finishing a solid 3rd after a good weekend. This year, he has been in the top 5 on three occasions at this stage. However, after going on to finish 4th at Northern Trust, he has imploded at the Honda Classic and AT&T, finishing 67th and 32nd respectively. With such quality around him, I would be very surprised were he to win here. 7/1 is pretty dire odds.
Tim Clark is a classy player, but trusting this 1 time winner to go on and win an event is always tough. At 8/1, I can not back him, especially as he is yet to put together 4 good rounds in a tournament since his return from injury. Sergio Garcia needs a great finish here to push Poulter out of the final Ryder Cup qualifying place. I thought hard about backing him to be 36 hole leader here and am rueful in seeing him T3rd now. The reason I looked more at the 36 hole option is because Garcia has not put together a good weekend all season, aside from the stunning charge in the Northern Trust Open, which almost brought victory. He can win from here if he stays dialled in, but his confidence seems to have been down this year, and I can't back him at 8/1 either, despite the incentive. Finally Carl Pettersson. Pettersson recovered well yesterday and is 2nd favourite at 6/1. Excluding the limited field Hyundai, Pettersson failed to get in the top 5 at halfway in 2011. However, 2012 has seen Pettersson here 4 times in 2012. Of those 4 times, Pettersson has finished 2nd twice and 1st once, with only a poor weekend at the Northern Trust blotting his record. With his form here over the years as well, he is a live threat.
At 35/1, I can not ignore Matt Every. My blueprint in backing players at this stage from a little off the pace is to find players that dial in when in contention. In 2012, Every has fired on all 5 times he has been in the top 30 at halfway. Mid way positions first, with final positions in brackets: 1 (6), 2 (3), 16 (8), 3 (2), 26 (6). I am getting around 8/1 here that Every places again. With the instances of players winning for the first time here as well and tight par 70s being to his liking this year, Every makes my team. Bud Cauley is on the same score, has the same number of wins - 0 - and yet is over half the price, with a less compelling performance over the weekend when in the mix. That said, his back to back 4th place finishes coming in are the reason for this. Cauley is too short for me though.
I am also going to have a small play on Jonas Blixt in the top 10 market on BetFair. Blixt is a country mile off the pace at -1, but has put together great 3rd rounds the last 3 times he has made the cut. I can't advise a formal bet, because there is only £10 at 65s available. But, I really like the price and am happy to back that he gets hot again at those prices. If you can find any way to get some money on Blixt at those sort of numbers, it is not the worst play at all. I think he is just too far away to be backable in the place market, but the huge odds available here are interesting as a back to lay option also.
So, am I backing Webb? No. There is too much quality right behind him in my view for 3/1 to be good enough value. I think he is the most likely winner, but 12/1 before the off down to 3 only a shot ahead of 4 of the pre-event favourites does not quite stack up for me, especially as the 12s was too tight to begin with.
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
Wednesday, 15 August 2012
Wyndham Championship Outright Selections
Outright selections
0.2pts EW Kyle Thompson at 1000/1 (SkyBet, BetVictor) and 0.2pts top 20 at 40/1 (SkyBet)
1pt EW Henrik Stensson at 40/1 (Various)
1pt EW Kevin Stadler at 125/1 (Various)
1pt EW JB Holmes at 66/1 (BoyleSports)
Additional bet
2pt EW Jason Dufner to win the Money list at 10/1 (Various, but take 3 places and 1/5 odds)
As mentioned on Twitter, Wednesday night was always going to be my only hope of writing a preview. And, here it is, albeit a hasty one.
I have been keeping up with twitter whilst away and have heard a lot about how few players making the top 25 at the PGA the week before have then gone on to place at the Wyndham. Well, it is a bit of a red herring in my view. In 2010, only 2 players from the top 25 of the PGA PLAYED the next week at the Wyndham. In 2011, that had swelled to 4 players. Hardly a compelling stat then, that none of the 6 (Dufner/Petterson 2010, Dufner/Immelman/Toms/Haas 2011) made top 5. The simple fact is that the top players playing in the PGA use Wyndham as a gap week as a general rule ahead of the play-offs.
So, let us not eliminate anybody at all from our selections on this basis. However, at time of writing, Jason Dufner has come in to 12s, as has Webb Simpson, with Petterson now 18s. Asserting that any of these prices are value is not something I can readily do.
Petterson played well last week and has a great record here, but I am not sure I can have him within a few points of the favourite before the off. He went pretty deep last week and, despite the short journey here, his press coverage has been pretty full-on for a guy not usually so accustomed to the lime light. I would not be surprised were he to prosper here, but his MC when last well placed at the PGA coming in is enough to put me off, despite 4th in 2011 and 1st in 2008 on this course. The 1st in 2008 and subsequent 67th in 2009 also gives a clue as to how Petterson may cope this week as the media attention would have been similar in 2009 to this week before the off.
Simpson really impressed me in the 2nd round last week, after shaking off the rust of his planned absence from the game in the 1st round. 8th in 2010 and 1st in 2011 shows Simpson loves the course and plays it well. However, the change to Bermuda is a slight negative for me: Simpson is 40th in my Bermuda positive ranking, versus 22nd on Bentgrass (the green grass prior to this year's renovation). Despite the US Open win, Simpson's form has been a little less than stellar this year and he is not a 12/1 shot this week. He can win, but I can't have him at the price.
I was with Dufner for his maiden win and he has been good to me generally this year, but his record is indifferent in this event. He is a better player now of course, and he never contended last week, unlike the last two years in the PGA (5th 2012, 2nd 2011). I have nothing better than 26th on this course however and nothing better than 8th way back in 2004 to guide me here. With new greens set to play firmer and faster, Dufner may struggle a little. Bermuda grass greens are a slight negative versus Bent in my stats, but this less than top draw putter does not really have his results driven by excellence on the greens. Tee shots are arguably too easy here for Dufner's accuracy to really give him an edge over tougher tracks, although his approach play in to firmer greens will give him more presentable birdie opportunites than most if not all of the field. I have been on recent near misses for Dufner. Now I have omitted him, I do not want him to win this week...................but I do for the bet I will detail later.
The first pick for me is my 2nd 1000/1 pick of the year. The first 1000/1 pick, Brian Harman, had sneaky course form at the US Open and fell short, while Michael Thompson got it done at huge odds as one of the few others who also had indicators there. So, hopefully I am using the right logic this week also with my insane pick. This guy has the following form in 2012: MC (18 times), WD (once) and T57th. So, I am truly insane right? Well, quite possibly. But, there are some decent reasons for my selection and I do not think a 1000/1 dismissal is at all right. South Carolina resident (we are in NC this week) Kyle Thompson has 3 Nationwide tour wins on his CV, two of which are in the Rex Hospital Open. The Rex Hospital Open was won last year on a non too taxing course length wise with Bermuda greens, held in North Carolina. Sound familiar? This course should resonate with Thompson this week. I think Kyle Thompson is a talented player who just has lost his way on the main tour this year. He starts quite late in the day, when the TV cameras and media focus will have lessened. And, he starts on the front 9, which is unquestionably the easier 9 to start on. I hope to see him find a couple of early birdies and find a groove that will set him up for the week. I also added a top 20 bet at a pretty huge 40/1 in case he plays well but just falls short.
Jason Dufner actually tops my rating here, but I want 18s. Henrik Stenson was not an instinctive pick at all this week, but a closer look at him shows him up well enough to be worth a play. In this less than top-draw field, Stenson's three straight top 10s up to and including the Scottish Open and headline stats for driving distance, accuracy and GIR within the top 30 of my recent PGA/European tour ranks, I believe him worthy of a play. Stenson has not won for some time now, but this has the feel of the sort of event he could return in. I am not going crazy with my points here, but this feels like an event that should suit. Course form = MC/MC, but I think he has the right game coming in to suit. Remember, Stenson has hardly had game before this season. He is a player again now and will be likely well up for this event. He starts early and on the front 9. Like Thompson, the chance exists for a good start that will set him up well for the event. As a final motivation, Stenson sits a precarious 112th in the Fed Ex cup race. He will want to be involved not just next week, but deep in to the Play-Offs. Getting the job done this week will go a long way to achieving that.
Kevin Stadler is a great player if you do this by stats, who does not always get things done in the real world. However, I really like this 125/1 shot this week. Stadler hits greens and has been doing just that in recent events too. This event is one where you can say that Stadler actually has got it done over the years. Stadler was finally edged on the 75th hole here by Ryan Moore in 2009 and was also 7th in 2007, albeit on a different course. The other added factor that I really like is that the switch to Bermuda should suit his eye. Stadler in the last couple of years has generally had his best results on Bermuda. Stadler has had 5 top 11s this year, 3 of which were on Bermudagrass. Let's hope he can start well and early to give us a great run this week.
JB Holmes tees it up for the first time here this week, but should find conditions to his liking. Holmes is a little erratic at times off the tee, but that should matter less than recent events this week. Holmes hits it a long way and has been hitting more than his share of greens in recent weeks. A good wedge player, Holmes will find a short iron in his hand, with the ability to attack the pin on a number of holes. Holmes is in progressive and impressive form too, shooting 27th, 15th and 12th in his last 3 events. I really feel he can get involved here and potentially challenge for the win.
Finally, I have kind of covered Jason Dufner. If he wins here, he goes atop the money list and then is almost a shoe-in to finish top 3. If he doesn't, then he is still of course in range and can get it done as the season goes on. Dufner generally finishes his season after the play-offs, but I am hoping his motivation to win the money list will see him play on. However, I am less convinced that Rory will dramatically alter his schedule to try and win the money list title and I am almost certain that Tiger Woods will not. Woods sits 1 and Rory 2 at time of writing. A big performance from Dufner could see him land this title and a continuation of his form over the season will see him challenge the top 3 at the very least. We have to take 3 places though, because it is Tiger and Rory and because the likes of Bubba and Zach are so close also . A big chance for no. 3 in this race to steal a march on no.s 1, 2, 4 and 5, who sit this week out.
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
0.2pts EW Kyle Thompson at 1000/1 (SkyBet, BetVictor) and 0.2pts top 20 at 40/1 (SkyBet)
1pt EW Henrik Stensson at 40/1 (Various)
1pt EW Kevin Stadler at 125/1 (Various)
1pt EW JB Holmes at 66/1 (BoyleSports)
Additional bet
2pt EW Jason Dufner to win the Money list at 10/1 (Various, but take 3 places and 1/5 odds)
As mentioned on Twitter, Wednesday night was always going to be my only hope of writing a preview. And, here it is, albeit a hasty one.
I have been keeping up with twitter whilst away and have heard a lot about how few players making the top 25 at the PGA the week before have then gone on to place at the Wyndham. Well, it is a bit of a red herring in my view. In 2010, only 2 players from the top 25 of the PGA PLAYED the next week at the Wyndham. In 2011, that had swelled to 4 players. Hardly a compelling stat then, that none of the 6 (Dufner/Petterson 2010, Dufner/Immelman/Toms/Haas 2011) made top 5. The simple fact is that the top players playing in the PGA use Wyndham as a gap week as a general rule ahead of the play-offs.
So, let us not eliminate anybody at all from our selections on this basis. However, at time of writing, Jason Dufner has come in to 12s, as has Webb Simpson, with Petterson now 18s. Asserting that any of these prices are value is not something I can readily do.
Petterson played well last week and has a great record here, but I am not sure I can have him within a few points of the favourite before the off. He went pretty deep last week and, despite the short journey here, his press coverage has been pretty full-on for a guy not usually so accustomed to the lime light. I would not be surprised were he to prosper here, but his MC when last well placed at the PGA coming in is enough to put me off, despite 4th in 2011 and 1st in 2008 on this course. The 1st in 2008 and subsequent 67th in 2009 also gives a clue as to how Petterson may cope this week as the media attention would have been similar in 2009 to this week before the off.
Simpson really impressed me in the 2nd round last week, after shaking off the rust of his planned absence from the game in the 1st round. 8th in 2010 and 1st in 2011 shows Simpson loves the course and plays it well. However, the change to Bermuda is a slight negative for me: Simpson is 40th in my Bermuda positive ranking, versus 22nd on Bentgrass (the green grass prior to this year's renovation). Despite the US Open win, Simpson's form has been a little less than stellar this year and he is not a 12/1 shot this week. He can win, but I can't have him at the price.
I was with Dufner for his maiden win and he has been good to me generally this year, but his record is indifferent in this event. He is a better player now of course, and he never contended last week, unlike the last two years in the PGA (5th 2012, 2nd 2011). I have nothing better than 26th on this course however and nothing better than 8th way back in 2004 to guide me here. With new greens set to play firmer and faster, Dufner may struggle a little. Bermuda grass greens are a slight negative versus Bent in my stats, but this less than top draw putter does not really have his results driven by excellence on the greens. Tee shots are arguably too easy here for Dufner's accuracy to really give him an edge over tougher tracks, although his approach play in to firmer greens will give him more presentable birdie opportunites than most if not all of the field. I have been on recent near misses for Dufner. Now I have omitted him, I do not want him to win this week...................but I do for the bet I will detail later.
The first pick for me is my 2nd 1000/1 pick of the year. The first 1000/1 pick, Brian Harman, had sneaky course form at the US Open and fell short, while Michael Thompson got it done at huge odds as one of the few others who also had indicators there. So, hopefully I am using the right logic this week also with my insane pick. This guy has the following form in 2012: MC (18 times), WD (once) and T57th. So, I am truly insane right? Well, quite possibly. But, there are some decent reasons for my selection and I do not think a 1000/1 dismissal is at all right. South Carolina resident (we are in NC this week) Kyle Thompson has 3 Nationwide tour wins on his CV, two of which are in the Rex Hospital Open. The Rex Hospital Open was won last year on a non too taxing course length wise with Bermuda greens, held in North Carolina. Sound familiar? This course should resonate with Thompson this week. I think Kyle Thompson is a talented player who just has lost his way on the main tour this year. He starts quite late in the day, when the TV cameras and media focus will have lessened. And, he starts on the front 9, which is unquestionably the easier 9 to start on. I hope to see him find a couple of early birdies and find a groove that will set him up for the week. I also added a top 20 bet at a pretty huge 40/1 in case he plays well but just falls short.
Jason Dufner actually tops my rating here, but I want 18s. Henrik Stenson was not an instinctive pick at all this week, but a closer look at him shows him up well enough to be worth a play. In this less than top-draw field, Stenson's three straight top 10s up to and including the Scottish Open and headline stats for driving distance, accuracy and GIR within the top 30 of my recent PGA/European tour ranks, I believe him worthy of a play. Stenson has not won for some time now, but this has the feel of the sort of event he could return in. I am not going crazy with my points here, but this feels like an event that should suit. Course form = MC/MC, but I think he has the right game coming in to suit. Remember, Stenson has hardly had game before this season. He is a player again now and will be likely well up for this event. He starts early and on the front 9. Like Thompson, the chance exists for a good start that will set him up well for the event. As a final motivation, Stenson sits a precarious 112th in the Fed Ex cup race. He will want to be involved not just next week, but deep in to the Play-Offs. Getting the job done this week will go a long way to achieving that.
Kevin Stadler is a great player if you do this by stats, who does not always get things done in the real world. However, I really like this 125/1 shot this week. Stadler hits greens and has been doing just that in recent events too. This event is one where you can say that Stadler actually has got it done over the years. Stadler was finally edged on the 75th hole here by Ryan Moore in 2009 and was also 7th in 2007, albeit on a different course. The other added factor that I really like is that the switch to Bermuda should suit his eye. Stadler in the last couple of years has generally had his best results on Bermuda. Stadler has had 5 top 11s this year, 3 of which were on Bermudagrass. Let's hope he can start well and early to give us a great run this week.
JB Holmes tees it up for the first time here this week, but should find conditions to his liking. Holmes is a little erratic at times off the tee, but that should matter less than recent events this week. Holmes hits it a long way and has been hitting more than his share of greens in recent weeks. A good wedge player, Holmes will find a short iron in his hand, with the ability to attack the pin on a number of holes. Holmes is in progressive and impressive form too, shooting 27th, 15th and 12th in his last 3 events. I really feel he can get involved here and potentially challenge for the win.
Finally, I have kind of covered Jason Dufner. If he wins here, he goes atop the money list and then is almost a shoe-in to finish top 3. If he doesn't, then he is still of course in range and can get it done as the season goes on. Dufner generally finishes his season after the play-offs, but I am hoping his motivation to win the money list will see him play on. However, I am less convinced that Rory will dramatically alter his schedule to try and win the money list title and I am almost certain that Tiger Woods will not. Woods sits 1 and Rory 2 at time of writing. A big performance from Dufner could see him land this title and a continuation of his form over the season will see him challenge the top 3 at the very least. We have to take 3 places though, because it is Tiger and Rory and because the likes of Bubba and Zach are so close also . A big chance for no. 3 in this race to steal a march on no.s 1, 2, 4 and 5, who sit this week out.
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
Monday, 13 August 2012
US PGA final thoughts
Outright results
3pt win Rory McIlroy at 20/1 (won +60pts)
1pt EW Bo Van Pelt at 66/1 (finished T18)
1pt EW Martin Laird at 125/1 (finished T42nd)
1.5pt EW Bubba Watson at 40/1 (finished T11)
1.5pt EW Jason Dufner at 40/1 (finished T27)
Rory McIlroy found a fitting way to return to number 1 in the World, by landing the Final major of 2012 and the 2nd of his career. And it was easy too. Rory just held it together much, much better than all others. I highlighted in my US PGA preview that, Shaun Micheel apart, this tournament since the turn of the century produced winners who had won on tour and arrived in form. Rory was one of the 14 that could have continued that trend and did. So, expect a cut and paste when I preview this event next year.
Like the British Open, I was left underwhelmed by the inability of many others to get it together when conditions gave them the best chance to do so. Ian Poulter was the only threat on the final day, coming from deep to show the others how it could be done. Justin Rose showed on both days that it was distinctly possible to get hot and post a score too. Finally, the solid weekend from David Lynn in benign conditions to finish solo 2nd was proof evident that not enough players got it together over at least 3 of the 4 days. Lynn is a good player and a solid professional, but his 2nd place will leave others rueful for sure.
Let's look at my selections for the event. My 2nd win only tip of the year (I think - Phil, who lost a play-off to Haas) was a useful one, because I picked Rory McIlroy. He delivered 50 points profit on the week (3pt win at 20/1 minus 10pts on other selections). No need to question whether we got that tip right. The other four picks all are an example of what might have been.
Bo Van Pelt stood on the 14th tee T4th and 2 shots from a locked in automatic Ryder Cup slot. He walked off 18 having dropped 3 shots - no pay out for us then and sadly typical of a season for him which has been wonderfully consistent, but short on top 5 finishes. He might just go and win one of these things out of the blue soon. Bubba Watson's weekend was bettered only by the likes of Rose, Lynn and McIlroy. That he finished 2 shots outside the places is really due to a poor first round. Watson played in the (slightly) trickier afternoon slot, but really left himself in a tough place with that first round of +1. He is back though. Jason Dufner also motored through the field over the weekend, but in the easiest of Thursday conditions imploded late on to post +2. 8 off the lead after day 1 and only 6 from 2nd at the end tells you he could have placed quite easily. Martin Laird was our 125/1 long shot. He played rounds 1, 2 and 4 in -3, which is better playing than almost the entire field, but shot 79 on Saturday, which generally was a great day for scoring.
The major winners this year read as follows:
Bubba Watson - good win for the game and clearly a guy that will contend often for majors.
Webb Simpson - a quieter season having been within a few holes of landing the US Money prize last year.....that was until he won the US Open. Again, a very good winner in the sense that he has proven his class on tour. After a good Presidents Cup in Australia, it will be interesting to see how he fares in Ryder Cup this year.
Ernie Els - while I am glad that he won, I am a little underwhelmed by this one. Els played the most solidly and won. He deserved too as well. Leaderboards don't lie. Els also challenged well in the US Open, but I wonder is this is more more a major title swan song than a sign of things to come.
Rory McIlroy - The returning world no.1 and arguably best placed to take that title forward if he gets the mental side of the game right. A great winner of the event.
All in all, a very good year for bringing class to the winner's enclosure in Major golf. Having Tiger contending in 3 of them did no harm either of course.
Finally, I am going to give a few headline grades for some of the players in the field this week
A* : McIlroy (star pupil) and David Lynn (maximised ability)
A :Keegan Bradley (brilliant follow up to last week and good title defence), John Daly (great run of form and wonderful to see him back), Jamie Donaldson (European Tour winner and now major contender. Great play), Ian Poulter (the course is too long for him, isn't it? Great play), Pettersson/Adams (very solid weeks from both)
A- : Justin Rose (yes a good result, but he should be really contending for the W. Lazy 2nd round), Michael Hoey (great 2nd round and huge credit for admitting the error which caused his DQ)
B+ : Tim Clark (the guy is back, fit and back where he belongs)
B : Tiger Woods (no, not an F. Tiger is the only person who has threatened to win the last 3 majors. He is under huge scrutiny every weekend of every major and will be until he wins again. Solid effort from ONE OF THE best players on the planet, but no longer undisputedly THE best), Steve Stricker (solid week for short hits, but rather fell away after storming in to contention in Rd3), Darren Clarke (huge made cut for him after a horror year)! Webb Simpson (missed cut after an understandable poor first round due to ring-rustiness. Second round of E par 5th best in field was a fine effort and almost made the weekend. Solid tune up ahead of Wyndham defence)
B- : my three of Dufner, Bubba and Van Pelt. All had lapses and all should have finished better, but played generally well
C : Oosthuizen and Harrington. (Harrington is not quite there and Oosthuizen realLy should have have been), Phil (briefly excited and then swiftly exited from the main stage. Another distinctly average week for him. Where has the early season zing gone?)
D : Dustin, Els. No zing at all.
E : Luke. The good final day really strengthened how poor the first 3 days had been. The deposed number 1 was meek in the wake of Rory's glory.
Regards
DAVE (OneBet)
- Posted using BlogPress from my iPad
3pt win Rory McIlroy at 20/1 (won +60pts)
1pt EW Bo Van Pelt at 66/1 (finished T18)
1pt EW Martin Laird at 125/1 (finished T42nd)
1.5pt EW Bubba Watson at 40/1 (finished T11)
1.5pt EW Jason Dufner at 40/1 (finished T27)
Rory McIlroy found a fitting way to return to number 1 in the World, by landing the Final major of 2012 and the 2nd of his career. And it was easy too. Rory just held it together much, much better than all others. I highlighted in my US PGA preview that, Shaun Micheel apart, this tournament since the turn of the century produced winners who had won on tour and arrived in form. Rory was one of the 14 that could have continued that trend and did. So, expect a cut and paste when I preview this event next year.
Like the British Open, I was left underwhelmed by the inability of many others to get it together when conditions gave them the best chance to do so. Ian Poulter was the only threat on the final day, coming from deep to show the others how it could be done. Justin Rose showed on both days that it was distinctly possible to get hot and post a score too. Finally, the solid weekend from David Lynn in benign conditions to finish solo 2nd was proof evident that not enough players got it together over at least 3 of the 4 days. Lynn is a good player and a solid professional, but his 2nd place will leave others rueful for sure.
Let's look at my selections for the event. My 2nd win only tip of the year (I think - Phil, who lost a play-off to Haas) was a useful one, because I picked Rory McIlroy. He delivered 50 points profit on the week (3pt win at 20/1 minus 10pts on other selections). No need to question whether we got that tip right. The other four picks all are an example of what might have been.
Bo Van Pelt stood on the 14th tee T4th and 2 shots from a locked in automatic Ryder Cup slot. He walked off 18 having dropped 3 shots - no pay out for us then and sadly typical of a season for him which has been wonderfully consistent, but short on top 5 finishes. He might just go and win one of these things out of the blue soon. Bubba Watson's weekend was bettered only by the likes of Rose, Lynn and McIlroy. That he finished 2 shots outside the places is really due to a poor first round. Watson played in the (slightly) trickier afternoon slot, but really left himself in a tough place with that first round of +1. He is back though. Jason Dufner also motored through the field over the weekend, but in the easiest of Thursday conditions imploded late on to post +2. 8 off the lead after day 1 and only 6 from 2nd at the end tells you he could have placed quite easily. Martin Laird was our 125/1 long shot. He played rounds 1, 2 and 4 in -3, which is better playing than almost the entire field, but shot 79 on Saturday, which generally was a great day for scoring.
The major winners this year read as follows:
Bubba Watson - good win for the game and clearly a guy that will contend often for majors.
Webb Simpson - a quieter season having been within a few holes of landing the US Money prize last year.....that was until he won the US Open. Again, a very good winner in the sense that he has proven his class on tour. After a good Presidents Cup in Australia, it will be interesting to see how he fares in Ryder Cup this year.
Ernie Els - while I am glad that he won, I am a little underwhelmed by this one. Els played the most solidly and won. He deserved too as well. Leaderboards don't lie. Els also challenged well in the US Open, but I wonder is this is more more a major title swan song than a sign of things to come.
Rory McIlroy - The returning world no.1 and arguably best placed to take that title forward if he gets the mental side of the game right. A great winner of the event.
All in all, a very good year for bringing class to the winner's enclosure in Major golf. Having Tiger contending in 3 of them did no harm either of course.
Finally, I am going to give a few headline grades for some of the players in the field this week
A* : McIlroy (star pupil) and David Lynn (maximised ability)
A :Keegan Bradley (brilliant follow up to last week and good title defence), John Daly (great run of form and wonderful to see him back), Jamie Donaldson (European Tour winner and now major contender. Great play), Ian Poulter (the course is too long for him, isn't it? Great play), Pettersson/Adams (very solid weeks from both)
A- : Justin Rose (yes a good result, but he should be really contending for the W. Lazy 2nd round), Michael Hoey (great 2nd round and huge credit for admitting the error which caused his DQ)
B+ : Tim Clark (the guy is back, fit and back where he belongs)
B : Tiger Woods (no, not an F. Tiger is the only person who has threatened to win the last 3 majors. He is under huge scrutiny every weekend of every major and will be until he wins again. Solid effort from ONE OF THE best players on the planet, but no longer undisputedly THE best), Steve Stricker (solid week for short hits, but rather fell away after storming in to contention in Rd3), Darren Clarke (huge made cut for him after a horror year)! Webb Simpson (missed cut after an understandable poor first round due to ring-rustiness. Second round of E par 5th best in field was a fine effort and almost made the weekend. Solid tune up ahead of Wyndham defence)
B- : my three of Dufner, Bubba and Van Pelt. All had lapses and all should have finished better, but played generally well
C : Oosthuizen and Harrington. (Harrington is not quite there and Oosthuizen realLy should have have been), Phil (briefly excited and then swiftly exited from the main stage. Another distinctly average week for him. Where has the early season zing gone?)
D : Dustin, Els. No zing at all.
E : Luke. The good final day really strengthened how poor the first 3 days had been. The deposed number 1 was meek in the wake of Rory's glory.
Regards
DAVE (OneBet)
- Posted using BlogPress from my iPad
Saturday, 11 August 2012
USPGA Midpoint considerations
The final golf major of the year is beautifully poised at the halfway stage, with the weather obliterating many in the field yesterday but not at the expense of proven class high on the leaderboard.
5 players managed to beat par yesterday - I am most certainly including the desperately unlucky Michael Hoey in this list, who was DQ after reporting his own failure to replace sand on the ball. Formal round averages can not yet be gleaned as Joost Luiten still has his round to finish, but the players went round in an average 6.1 over par yesterday. The thing that surprises me most is that Ian Poulter could get around in sub par, but so many other great ball strikers were simply blown away. Poulter is a great grinder for sure, but he is also one of the shorter hitters on tour. So, if he can get it under par on the longest course in major championship history, I rather fancy a few out there will be underwhelmed with their efforts yesterday.
I am going to give some thoughts on the leaderboard, but please note I do it this week without my usual armoury of stats at my disposal. I am away from home with only an iPad and an intermittent connection.
Tiger Woods - For the 3rd major in succession, Tiger looms large at the halfway stage. At the US Open, he co-led with Furyk at this point before falling away, largely due to an inability to play the super-tough opening 6 hole stretch well. No such problems here at the start of the round, as the front 9 is the easier of the two, although nothing should be taken for granted; every hole is tough when the wind blows. In the British Open, Tiger never went away, but never quite got there either. Who am I to question Tiger of course, but I still believe his choice of iron off all bar a couple of tees cost him over the 4 days. It was his to win.
So what of his chances here? First of all, he simply has to be favourite at this stage. I checked a couple of forecasts before writing this. On Saturday golfing conditions are ranked only 4 out of 10, but improve to 8 tomorrow. At this course, 4 out of 10 is not where you want it to be. Tiger is scrambling great, making a number of 1-putts to keep his score ticking over. Question is whether he can continue to do that. If so, he has an outstanding chance. If not, I would question whether he is hitting enough greens. Much will depend on where the organisers choose to place the pins on the last 2 days. I suspect that on Saturday the pins will be more accessible, which makes both approaches and up and downs eminently more possible. On Sunday perhaps less so and a number of up and downs will incorporate shots across undulating greens.
Tiger is the favourite, but he has to improve his tee to green game to have a serious chance of winning. I believe an over par round is likely over the weekend and both the elements and the performance of others will dictate how costly this is. There will be a lot of pressure on him if he hits the front on Sunday. I have my doubts and would not be backing him at his current price.
Carl Pettersson - Pettersson co-leads at halfway, but is readily dismissed by layers at 25/1. I think bookmaker pricing is largely to deflect outlay away from Tiger in such events. They have to try and at least even their books, which is mighty tough when Tiger or prominent. Pettersson has never made the places in a major, but has the right sort of credentials to do so. A lot of punters talked up Pettersson before the US Open and with good reason. When it comes to shaping your ball off the tee, Pettersson is a good man to trust. When it comes to playing technical, tight par 70s, again Pettersson is a man to look at seriously. His win earlier this season was seriously impressive - Pettersson is one of the few this year to have hit the front and then gone impressively away from his challengers over the weekend. A multiple tour winner and comfortably within the world's top 50, he is not lightly dismissed here. 3 late bogeys will have jolted his confidence of course yesterday, but this guy is plenty good enough to start afresh today.
My main concern with Pettersson is how well he maintains form through to
Late Sunday. Pettersson is hardly the fittest guy on tour and surely this course asks more questions than most of your fitness. I also wonder whether the long putter keeps on rolling the, well on the green in stiff winds and across large greens.
Over all, 25/1 feels like just about the right price. Pettersson lost his way in holes 7-9 yesterday (his 16th-18th). If still somewhere near the top, he could be worth looking at at 45 and not 36 holes.
Vijay Singh completes the trio at the top. The oldest major winner were he to do it, Vijay has one of the very best CVs in the field. Of course, his CV is filled with highlights in years gone by, but a Vijay Singh untroubled by back injuries is still capable of great play. Singh still hits it long and remains a wizard with the wedge when playing well. His 69 yesterday was the only round in the 60s and demonstrates just how well he is controlling his golf ball. I highlighted in a midpoint preview earlier this year just how readily Singh has been blowing good positions at halfway in the last 2 years (possibly due to the challenge of staying in peak condition over 4 days). However, two top 10s including the British Open coming in suggest he is playing injury free right now.
That said, it is a long time since Singh placed in a major and it is a rare occurrence indeed for him to contend in regular PGA tour events. I think the 12/1 quotes on offer are something nearing lunacy. He might win, but after the headline grabbing 69, my instinct would be to fancy him to finish outside the top 20 before he wins. An avoid for me.
Ian Poulter is a guy I usually look to on faster putting surfaces.........or when the wind blows. He was fantastic in chasing Harrington down the stretch in the 2009 British Open when I think +3 won the event. His round yesterday was pretty special given his relative lack of weapons. Problem is, he is 3rd favourite and only 11/1. I think I need 20/1 before I am going in on Poulter here. I would love to see him do it though.
Jamie Donaldson has no hope, right? Well,I am not entirely convinced of that. 2 shots from the lead and recently having broken his duck on the European Tour, Donaldson is scaling new heights this year. For years, he has been in that small group of players on tour who you thought had to win an event sooner or later. The question is whether his winning on tour has made him able to compete in this company. I can't answer that one, but I know it will be tough. 50/1 is quite some price for a guy right in contention. I think if he was a bit better than the 55s available on Betfair I might think him worthy of a back to lay, but I can't trust him at the price. The 50/1 is really an 11.5/1 place price. It isn't bad, but he is in with the big boys here and the leaderboard is too star-studded for it to feel great value.
Rory McIlroy is both my win only pre-event tip and also the clear 2nd favourite behind Woods in the betting at 8/1. I made some money on him yesterday, confident he would slip back. It didn't take a genius to work that out and the lay to back strategy was pretty easy money on Betfair. However, Rory stuck to the task pretty well and will be likely buoyed at having coped better than most in trying conditions. The question with Rory is whether he can stay close enough to the head of things on Saturday? If so, potentially improved conditions on Sunday means he has a chance.
I can see a script where Rory lies 3 off the pace after round 3 and gets hot to win the event, but I would not back him now at 8/1 to do so. I believe his chances of being much shorter in the betting come the end of today are quite slim. Therefore, it makes every sense to consider bother lay to back to strategy - lay him at 9.4 or so and back him at 15 or so to try and get free profit should he win. Alternatively, wait and see if he is in the mix and look again after round 3 would be my advice.
Of the layers at -1, I most like Immelmann because he won the team event here in 2003. Scott at 14s is poorly priced. Blake Adams is probably best equipped of the 4 to go well (mindful of a strong showing at Sawgrass) but least well equipped when it comes to contending. However, the 80/1 certainly tempts me to risk that he contends here. That is a nice price indeed. Immelmann at 66s is decent too, but I would love to have seen him 80s too. Aaron Baddeley is a player I really like and he has the tools to become much more prominent on tour than he is now. However, 40/1 is pretty dire odds.
And so to the players at evens. It is great to see Phil in contention. The golfing world needs the best players playing well and going for majors. I hope he stays in there. He is 25s, which is not bad. However, if you want to back him, expect the jumpy Betfair punters to offer you nice value. If he birdies a hole early, he will leap forward. This is entirely artificial, as he may then shoot +8 (as anybody can around here) but that is the beauty of Betfair. My strongest play on Phil is a Betfair play. I am on the fence about whether it is a great play, however.
McDowell, Hansen and Clark are also evens and I can make a case for all. McDowell keeps contending in majors and won a very tough US Open in just the sort of way he would need to here - by hanging tough. The layers know it though and 28s is tight enough for me. Clark is another short hitter who, like Poulter, is showing there is more than way to score round here. It is hard not to like 100/1. Consider this brief. If you are level par today and end the tournament level par, you are likely to place and might win. That statement is weather dependent, but it is has a lot to it. So, it is 25/1 on a place that Tim Clark stays still. I like that. I like it for Hansen, McDowell and Mickelson too by the way. Hansen at 66s has merits, particularly given his charge through the field in the masters and his general ability to progress over the weekend - I backed him at halfway at the British Open for this reason.
To finish, is there anybody else that can go under par for the weekend from their current over par position and place or even win. Molinari can play tough pretty well and Zach proved that well at Sawgrass. Marcel Siem just lost out to Danny Willett on the European Tour in tough conditions recently and could shock a few. Jacobson and Van Pelt have merits for hanging tough and playing solid golf and may yet have a say. Harrington just is not there any more. I have not backed him once this season and have no intention to do so now. He needs to prove it to me. I am not one for theories. That said, he could get close agin by just hanging around.
I mentioned Leishmania as one who can go well if it gets tough and he produced a fine round yesterday. He might be able to do something pretty outrageous versus the field over the weekend and shock them all. At +3, a frustrated Ernie Els needs to buy a putt or two. He will look at the similarity of his position here and at the British Open. Solid enough, but not really contending. I think he is too far back and his frustration is because he can not hole a putt. If he holes a few, he is one that can move forward. There is some value in the place market for Ernie, although the layers are still wary of this fact. Same point for Harrington as well.
Enjoy the weekend and let's hope that one of my tips before the off does something special. All 5 made it, but realistically only Rory, Laird and Van Pelt have a chance over the weekend.
Regards
DAVE (OneBet)
- Posted using BlogPress from my iPad
5 players managed to beat par yesterday - I am most certainly including the desperately unlucky Michael Hoey in this list, who was DQ after reporting his own failure to replace sand on the ball. Formal round averages can not yet be gleaned as Joost Luiten still has his round to finish, but the players went round in an average 6.1 over par yesterday. The thing that surprises me most is that Ian Poulter could get around in sub par, but so many other great ball strikers were simply blown away. Poulter is a great grinder for sure, but he is also one of the shorter hitters on tour. So, if he can get it under par on the longest course in major championship history, I rather fancy a few out there will be underwhelmed with their efforts yesterday.
I am going to give some thoughts on the leaderboard, but please note I do it this week without my usual armoury of stats at my disposal. I am away from home with only an iPad and an intermittent connection.
Tiger Woods - For the 3rd major in succession, Tiger looms large at the halfway stage. At the US Open, he co-led with Furyk at this point before falling away, largely due to an inability to play the super-tough opening 6 hole stretch well. No such problems here at the start of the round, as the front 9 is the easier of the two, although nothing should be taken for granted; every hole is tough when the wind blows. In the British Open, Tiger never went away, but never quite got there either. Who am I to question Tiger of course, but I still believe his choice of iron off all bar a couple of tees cost him over the 4 days. It was his to win.
So what of his chances here? First of all, he simply has to be favourite at this stage. I checked a couple of forecasts before writing this. On Saturday golfing conditions are ranked only 4 out of 10, but improve to 8 tomorrow. At this course, 4 out of 10 is not where you want it to be. Tiger is scrambling great, making a number of 1-putts to keep his score ticking over. Question is whether he can continue to do that. If so, he has an outstanding chance. If not, I would question whether he is hitting enough greens. Much will depend on where the organisers choose to place the pins on the last 2 days. I suspect that on Saturday the pins will be more accessible, which makes both approaches and up and downs eminently more possible. On Sunday perhaps less so and a number of up and downs will incorporate shots across undulating greens.
Tiger is the favourite, but he has to improve his tee to green game to have a serious chance of winning. I believe an over par round is likely over the weekend and both the elements and the performance of others will dictate how costly this is. There will be a lot of pressure on him if he hits the front on Sunday. I have my doubts and would not be backing him at his current price.
Carl Pettersson - Pettersson co-leads at halfway, but is readily dismissed by layers at 25/1. I think bookmaker pricing is largely to deflect outlay away from Tiger in such events. They have to try and at least even their books, which is mighty tough when Tiger or prominent. Pettersson has never made the places in a major, but has the right sort of credentials to do so. A lot of punters talked up Pettersson before the US Open and with good reason. When it comes to shaping your ball off the tee, Pettersson is a good man to trust. When it comes to playing technical, tight par 70s, again Pettersson is a man to look at seriously. His win earlier this season was seriously impressive - Pettersson is one of the few this year to have hit the front and then gone impressively away from his challengers over the weekend. A multiple tour winner and comfortably within the world's top 50, he is not lightly dismissed here. 3 late bogeys will have jolted his confidence of course yesterday, but this guy is plenty good enough to start afresh today.
My main concern with Pettersson is how well he maintains form through to
Late Sunday. Pettersson is hardly the fittest guy on tour and surely this course asks more questions than most of your fitness. I also wonder whether the long putter keeps on rolling the, well on the green in stiff winds and across large greens.
Over all, 25/1 feels like just about the right price. Pettersson lost his way in holes 7-9 yesterday (his 16th-18th). If still somewhere near the top, he could be worth looking at at 45 and not 36 holes.
Vijay Singh completes the trio at the top. The oldest major winner were he to do it, Vijay has one of the very best CVs in the field. Of course, his CV is filled with highlights in years gone by, but a Vijay Singh untroubled by back injuries is still capable of great play. Singh still hits it long and remains a wizard with the wedge when playing well. His 69 yesterday was the only round in the 60s and demonstrates just how well he is controlling his golf ball. I highlighted in a midpoint preview earlier this year just how readily Singh has been blowing good positions at halfway in the last 2 years (possibly due to the challenge of staying in peak condition over 4 days). However, two top 10s including the British Open coming in suggest he is playing injury free right now.
That said, it is a long time since Singh placed in a major and it is a rare occurrence indeed for him to contend in regular PGA tour events. I think the 12/1 quotes on offer are something nearing lunacy. He might win, but after the headline grabbing 69, my instinct would be to fancy him to finish outside the top 20 before he wins. An avoid for me.
Ian Poulter is a guy I usually look to on faster putting surfaces.........or when the wind blows. He was fantastic in chasing Harrington down the stretch in the 2009 British Open when I think +3 won the event. His round yesterday was pretty special given his relative lack of weapons. Problem is, he is 3rd favourite and only 11/1. I think I need 20/1 before I am going in on Poulter here. I would love to see him do it though.
Jamie Donaldson has no hope, right? Well,I am not entirely convinced of that. 2 shots from the lead and recently having broken his duck on the European Tour, Donaldson is scaling new heights this year. For years, he has been in that small group of players on tour who you thought had to win an event sooner or later. The question is whether his winning on tour has made him able to compete in this company. I can't answer that one, but I know it will be tough. 50/1 is quite some price for a guy right in contention. I think if he was a bit better than the 55s available on Betfair I might think him worthy of a back to lay, but I can't trust him at the price. The 50/1 is really an 11.5/1 place price. It isn't bad, but he is in with the big boys here and the leaderboard is too star-studded for it to feel great value.
Rory McIlroy is both my win only pre-event tip and also the clear 2nd favourite behind Woods in the betting at 8/1. I made some money on him yesterday, confident he would slip back. It didn't take a genius to work that out and the lay to back strategy was pretty easy money on Betfair. However, Rory stuck to the task pretty well and will be likely buoyed at having coped better than most in trying conditions. The question with Rory is whether he can stay close enough to the head of things on Saturday? If so, potentially improved conditions on Sunday means he has a chance.
I can see a script where Rory lies 3 off the pace after round 3 and gets hot to win the event, but I would not back him now at 8/1 to do so. I believe his chances of being much shorter in the betting come the end of today are quite slim. Therefore, it makes every sense to consider bother lay to back to strategy - lay him at 9.4 or so and back him at 15 or so to try and get free profit should he win. Alternatively, wait and see if he is in the mix and look again after round 3 would be my advice.
Of the layers at -1, I most like Immelmann because he won the team event here in 2003. Scott at 14s is poorly priced. Blake Adams is probably best equipped of the 4 to go well (mindful of a strong showing at Sawgrass) but least well equipped when it comes to contending. However, the 80/1 certainly tempts me to risk that he contends here. That is a nice price indeed. Immelmann at 66s is decent too, but I would love to have seen him 80s too. Aaron Baddeley is a player I really like and he has the tools to become much more prominent on tour than he is now. However, 40/1 is pretty dire odds.
And so to the players at evens. It is great to see Phil in contention. The golfing world needs the best players playing well and going for majors. I hope he stays in there. He is 25s, which is not bad. However, if you want to back him, expect the jumpy Betfair punters to offer you nice value. If he birdies a hole early, he will leap forward. This is entirely artificial, as he may then shoot +8 (as anybody can around here) but that is the beauty of Betfair. My strongest play on Phil is a Betfair play. I am on the fence about whether it is a great play, however.
McDowell, Hansen and Clark are also evens and I can make a case for all. McDowell keeps contending in majors and won a very tough US Open in just the sort of way he would need to here - by hanging tough. The layers know it though and 28s is tight enough for me. Clark is another short hitter who, like Poulter, is showing there is more than way to score round here. It is hard not to like 100/1. Consider this brief. If you are level par today and end the tournament level par, you are likely to place and might win. That statement is weather dependent, but it is has a lot to it. So, it is 25/1 on a place that Tim Clark stays still. I like that. I like it for Hansen, McDowell and Mickelson too by the way. Hansen at 66s has merits, particularly given his charge through the field in the masters and his general ability to progress over the weekend - I backed him at halfway at the British Open for this reason.
To finish, is there anybody else that can go under par for the weekend from their current over par position and place or even win. Molinari can play tough pretty well and Zach proved that well at Sawgrass. Marcel Siem just lost out to Danny Willett on the European Tour in tough conditions recently and could shock a few. Jacobson and Van Pelt have merits for hanging tough and playing solid golf and may yet have a say. Harrington just is not there any more. I have not backed him once this season and have no intention to do so now. He needs to prove it to me. I am not one for theories. That said, he could get close agin by just hanging around.
I mentioned Leishmania as one who can go well if it gets tough and he produced a fine round yesterday. He might be able to do something pretty outrageous versus the field over the weekend and shock them all. At +3, a frustrated Ernie Els needs to buy a putt or two. He will look at the similarity of his position here and at the British Open. Solid enough, but not really contending. I think he is too far back and his frustration is because he can not hole a putt. If he holes a few, he is one that can move forward. There is some value in the place market for Ernie, although the layers are still wary of this fact. Same point for Harrington as well.
Enjoy the weekend and let's hope that one of my tips before the off does something special. All 5 made it, but realistically only Rory, Laird and Van Pelt have a chance over the weekend.
Regards
DAVE (OneBet)
- Posted using BlogPress from my iPad
Monday, 6 August 2012
Golf Tips - US PGA Championship outright selections
Outright selections
3pt Win Rory McIlroy at 20/1 (Various)
1pt EW Bo Van Pelt at 66/1 (General)
1pt EW Martin Laird at 125/1 (Vairous)
Previously advised
1.5pt EW Bubba Watson at 40/1 (Various)
1.5pt Ew Jason Dufner at 40/1 (Various)
Kiawah hole by hole guide http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/08/golf-tips-us-pga-championship-hole-by.html
3pt Win Rory McIlroy at 20/1 (Various)
1pt EW Bo Van Pelt at 66/1 (General)
1pt EW Martin Laird at 125/1 (Vairous)
Previously advised
1.5pt EW Bubba Watson at 40/1 (Various)
1.5pt Ew Jason Dufner at 40/1 (Various)
Kiawah hole by hole guide http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/08/golf-tips-us-pga-championship-hole-by.html
The US PGA is the least vaunted of the 4 majors on the golfing calendar but, in my view at least, I think we have an intriguing proposition this week that will may live long in the memory. First, we have the cream of the game competing this week, with the World Ranking invites going beyond 100th place; everybody is here this week.
There are a number of subplots within the field also. Keegan Bradley defends this week and tuned up superbly by gunning down Jim Furyk last week to lift his first WGC title. However, as is likely to be the case for the foreseeable future, Tiger Woods is clearly at the head of the betting. Woods finished well last week to make the top 10. He was let down by nothing more than his putter last week and may have a huge say in the outcome as he continues to seek a comeback major. Rory McIlroy is finally awakening from his mini slump and seems capable of challenging again. World No.1 Luke Donald is also playing well and seems capable of raising his game most when his world no.1 status is threatened.
Perhaps more importantly than the fact that certain players arrive with headline chances is the fact that majors continue to be spread liberally around the world's finest - and not quite finest - golfers. 16 majors, 16 different winners. There is no sense that you can pin your hopes to any player right now with unabashed confidence
In my hole by hole guide (link here) of the course, I tried to give a feel for what players will expect at Kiawah Island this week. Heavy rain at time of writing and in the weeks leading up to the event mean that the longest course in Major Championship history just got longer. A long course does not necessarily equal a bombers course, however, as Jim Furyk showed as recently as the US Open when just failing to land the event at Olympic. However, with generous landing areas on many fairways, players who can hit the ball a long way from the tee have a potentially critical advantage this week. For me, the key attributes are as follows:
Total driving - Players really need to be at least quite long from the tee, but also pretty straight. On many holes, the cost of missing the fairway (particularly to the right) will be a heavy one. However, there is also an advantage on several risk/reward holes of choosing and hitting the longer of two driving areas.
Ability to shape the ball both ways, with a right to left game most desired - The hole by hole preview I posted reiterated the importance of shot shape, with many holes showing a clear advantage for players moving the ball right to left. I picked Bubba last night on Twitter because I had to advise him while the price was still value (Bubba has already come in to 35/1 since). The more I studied the course and hole by hole requirements, the more I could picture holes which would suit Bubba's eye.
A great scrambling game - Obviously players who consistently hit greens will need this part of their game less, but I fancy the winner this week will have got up and down from around the green better than many.
Fairways and greens - hit them both. Often
Solid putting - Players are likely to face several putts of 5-10 feet to make par, either because they have had to chip on to undulating greens, or because they have putted across greens up to 10,000sq feet. Players will have to consistently hole out to keep their score ticking over, especially if the wind gets up. Although the green speed is only expected to reach between 10 and 11 on the stimpmeter by the off, a solid putting stroke will be oft required, especially as the papsalum greens are not experienced often by the field.
Before explaining my choices, I want to highlight two consistent themes that apply to recent winners of this event: Previous winners tend to have already won earlier that year and arrive
in demonstrable form.
Let’s take a look at that point
2011: Winner Keegan Bradley, who also won the Byron Nelson
in May. 15th at Firestone the
week before.
2010: Winner Martin Kaymer, who won the Abu Dhabi Golf
Championship in January. 22nd
at Firestone the week before.
2009: Winner YE Yang, who also landed the Volvo Classic and
Honda Classic in 2009. 19th
at Firestone the week before.
2008: Winner Padraig Harrington, also 2008 Open Champion. 20th at Firestone the week
before.
2007/2006: Winner both years Tiger, who won 13 other events
in those 2 years. Winner by 8 at
Firestone in 07 and winner at the Buick 2 weeks before in 06 (WGC Bridgestone
was held after the PGA prior to 07 and the Buick was Woods’ last event before
the PGA)
2005: Winner Phil Mickelson, winner of 3 tournaments prior to
the PGA that year. 10th at
the International the week before.
2004: Winner Vijay Singh, four time tour winner that year
prior to the event. First at the Buick
two weeks before, Singh’s last event prior to the PGA.
2003: Winner Shaun Micheel, with no prior wins that year. 60th at the International.
2002: Winner Rich Beem, winner of The International 2 weeks
prior to the PGA, which was his last event prior to the PGA.
2001: Winner David Toms, Compaq Classic winner earlier that
year. 35th at the Buick the
week before.
Aside from Shaun Micheel, the last 11 years has seen a previous winner on the PGA or European tour that year prevail in this event. Also, aside from Micheel and to a lesser
extent David Toms in 2001, the winner has demonstrated they are in good shape
in the event immediately prior to the PGA.
If we take the logic above as a very strong barometer of our
likely winner this week, we can dissect and eliminate a number of players from
this week’s field. There are 18 players
in the field who finished in the top 30 in the last event and also have won on
one of the major tours this year. They
are as follows:
Player
|
Last
tournament
|
Last
3 event average
|
2012
winner?
|
Keegan Bradley
|
1
|
27
|
Yes
|
Steve Stricker
|
2
|
10
|
Yes
|
Louis Oosthuizen
|
4
|
16
|
Yes
|
Rory McIlroy
|
5
|
25
|
Yes
|
Justin Rose
|
5
|
37
|
Yes
|
Thorbjorn Olesen
|
5
|
17
|
Yes
|
Jason Dufner
|
7
|
14
|
Yes
|
Webb Simpson
|
7
|
12
|
Yes
|
Scott Stallings
|
7
|
52
|
Yes
|
Tiger Woods
|
8
|
32
|
Yes
|
Luke Donald
|
8
|
10
|
Yes
|
Matt Kuchar
|
8
|
17
|
Yes
|
Kyle Stanley
|
16
|
39
|
Yes
|
Dustin Johnson
|
19
|
20
|
Yes
|
Bubba Watson
|
19
|
15
|
Yes
|
Bill Haas
|
19
|
24
|
Yes
|
Scott Piercy
|
19
|
8
|
Yes
|
Rafael Cabrera Bello
|
29
|
52
|
Yes
|
I use statistics a lot in my analysis. And, although this is a little
one-dimensional, I would certainly be hesitant in having onside any players who
could not get near the head of the field at Bridgestone last week.
So, we want players who can find fairways and greens and hit it longer than average, as well as being able to scramble and putt solidly when required. We also ideally want recent winners, who arrive with their game in good shape. So to my choices.
Bubba Watson - A winner at Augusta this year of course and I have said much about Bubba already of course. With a first major and a first child, it is entirely expected that Bubba's form would have dipped a little. However, the signes are there that he is coming back. Bubba produced his best finish at the British Open and followed up with a very solid T19 at Firestone last week. However, the most compelling case I can make for Bubba is the course's requirements. Bubba has the right shot shape for this course and is plenty long enough. He will be more comfortable than most moving the ball away from the main danger, which is usually on the right off the tee. In addition, Bubba's continues to lead GIR stats on tour. His ability to do so from off the fairway will be key again this week where required. I fully expect Bubba to enjoy himself this week. If the wind gets high, I have my doubts, but I am not convinced he will be particularly blown away versus the rest of the field even if it does blow. I also like the fact that Bubba made the play-off at the Pete Dye designed Whistling Straits in 2010, which is perhaps the most closely aligned Dye design to this. I expect Bubba to give us a fun ride this week and he may just pick up a second major.
Jason Dufner - There is nobody I trust to go well this week more than Dufner. We just missed with him last week, but I see no reason to leave him out this at all. I watched with anguish as Dufner played his 3rd round in +2 to slip away from the leaders. He didn't play so badly but similar to Tiger in round 1, he did not score anywhere near as well as his tee to green game dictated he should have. I have highlighted a few times in recent weeks how well Dufner is striking the ball - 25th driving distance, 3rd in driving accuracy and 12th in greens hit last week does nothing to dampen that view. 12th in greens hit is his fisst time outside the top 10 in that category in 4 events, by the way. The final positive is Dufner and Pete Dye designs. 5th and 2nd in the last 2 years in the US PGA Championship have both been achieved on Pete Dye designs. A great scrambler which contributes to his place in the top 10 for bogey avoidance, I can find very few negatives for Dufner this week. Sure, he is not the best putter in the field, but this is not the week where the best putter is the pre-requisite for victory. Expect Dufner to be very close to the head of the field yet again. I tipped Dufner early at 40/1, which is a brilliant price. He is 30s already less than a day later. I still think you need him on side.
Rory McIlroy - Rory lost a play-off in this event along with Bubba in 2010. Finally, he is coming back to form. I am most encouraged by the amount of work Rory put in after the British Open. Whatever the reason (and most have an opinion) for his relative slump, there are signs he is coming back. This course is often generous from the tee, which is right how McIlroy likes it. When winning the US Open last year, McIlroy was able to unleash his driver and dial in his irons to stunning effect in going away from the field. It would not surprise me at all were he to do just that again this week. There may be some luck in avoiding the worst of the conditions this week, but McIlroy has been able to dominate a Masters field for 3 days, a British Open field for a day (arguably 3 days after a second round 80 did not deter him from finishing 3rd) and a US Open fielld for 4 days. He arguably should have won this event in 2010 also, but I think he could have a great chance this week, especially as the course gets damper and hence longer. I am going win only here. Rory is one of the few to truly believe can win, but also can not be trusted fully yet to fire. the last time I did this, I watched Bill Haas hole a monster in a play-off and deny Phil. Still, win only feels the right play to me.
I am struggling with my final selection. The whole world seems to be on Dustin Johnson and I entirely understand the rationalé for him this week. However, I do not think he was favourite over Bubba and Dufner at all and the continued adoration for him as he moves in to clear 4th favouritism frankly baffles me. He can win, but like Scott last week, he is terribly priced to do so. Justin Rose is a bit of a photo-fit for this event in many ways and can make a strong challenge this week. However, I feel the lengthening of the course may just take this almost literally out of reach for him.
I like Piercy, but the value has been long since taken on him. Similarly, Garrigus is now too tight to back. Bill Haas is sneaking back in to some form and holds some appeal, as does Schwartzel. I actually like Els, not just because he has a 4th major story of the year where he to challenge (the Masters story was the will they invite or won't they saga that preceded the event - they didn't). the likes of Goosen and Leishman can also tough it out if the going gets a little tougher. Leishman ticks the box for having won this year also. Bo Van Pelt again tempts me and 66/1 is good enough here. I picked him last week and he did nothing to discourage. He is in the top 20 for my recent driving distance and driving accuracy stats and 9th in my recent GIR rankings. Make sure you take the 6 places, as Bo is great at finding that 6th-10th range. I expect he will go well again.
I am also going to play one more guy. Martin Laird has had a fairly quiet time of things this year, but is starting to play better again. I think the fact the course is lengthening works in Laird's favour, as does the fact that there are a number of holes with generous landing areas. Laird is a massive price at 125/1 on a course where I believe only a few will be able to prevail if it plays really long. Laird is one of those guys
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
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