Outright selections
2pts EW Webb Simpson at 33/1 (Various) Profit 14.5pts
1pt EW Bo Van Pelt at 40/1 (Various) Loss 2pts
1.5pt EW Phil Mickelson at 11/1 (Various) Loss 3pts
4pts "Big guns" at 10/11 (Paddy Power) in the big guns vs the field market (Big guns are Haas, Mahan, Furyk, Bradley, Westwood, Micklelson, McIlroy, Woods, Simpson and Zach Johnson) Loss 4pts
2pts no hole in one at 8/13 (SkyBet) W Profit 1.23pts
2pts Jonathan Byrd to beat Lucas Glover in a 72 hole matche bet at 5/6 Boylesports W Profit 1.67pts
Total profit : 8.4pts
As we are publishing here on the eve of the event, there seems little point in going in to a long narrative on the reasons for selections and the course attributes. One of the main reasons I usually publish my PGA tips on a Monday is because I like to pick clear of other opinions of which players are hot and which attributes are key.
In very brief summary, playing this classical track well brings putting more sharply in to focus than recent events. It is imperative that players are good around the greens, with scrambling and 3-putt avoidance likely to be key themes here this week on the undulating Bentgrass greens of Quail Hollow. Players likely to do well this are those who have plotted their way around the course and shown selectivity in when they attack the course.
Off the tee, there is some margin for error, despite the tree-lined nature of much of the course and the rough is negligible around here if you are not far off line. Driving accuracy and distance are nice to have attributes this week. none of the top 4 last managed to rank better than 20th in the field for driving distance or accuracy. Ballstrikers have an edge here; it is the ability to eliminate the tiers in the greens by placing the ball in the right areas that will see players start to prosper on this course.
I think I want Luke Donald this week, but he isn't playing.
The layers have it easier this week than most as this track likes it better players. The winners enclosure and higher echélons of most leaderboards in the 9 year history of this event are littered with those near the head of the betting. In short, an outsider would surprise here more than on most courses.
The selections
Rory McIlroy is overlooked this week. I am not sure I can trust entirely that Rory returns this week and fires. Rory missed a lot of greens over the weekend in Augusta and did not scramble well enough on to the Bentgrass greens to stay in contention. Of course, McIlroy's record prior to the Masters was stunning and two bad rounds does not mean he can not win here. However, I think I would need to see at least 3/1 for a place before I considered him here. I would consider backing Rory if his odds drifted to around 20/1 after an indifferent start. McIlroy has an afternoon tee time and if the likes of Phil start well in the morning, it is possible that he will drift before the start of his round. An indifferent start then could see him worth backing.
If Mcilroy is overlooked for a poor couple of rounds, then so is Tiger after seeing how at odds with his swing he was at Augusta. Tiger says that he has fixed his swing, but I am less sure. An, if he has fixed his swing, this was never quite his favourite track in any case. In 5 attempts, Tiger has a 1st, 3rd and 4th. Of course, for all others, this would represent irresistible form. However, Tiger (I believe) remains fragile and does not have the compelling recent form of Phil Mickelson, who is my bet this week at the head of the market.
I have selected three relatively short-priced players this week as I believe the longer shots in this event could be playing for only a couple of the place positions. Therefore, I want to focus on trying to find the winner here. That Phil has not won in his 8 years here is something of a strange anomaly. Phil has 6 tops 10s, a 12th and a 35th but has never actually gone on to win the event. There are some obvious similarities to Augusta on this course and it just fits Phil's game beautifully. Phil is back so far this year and has arguably the tours best player to date in 2012. But for a very thin stand rail catching Phil's ball early in round 4, leading to a treble, I believe Phil would be 6/1 here and Masters champion. That he isn't cost us the win also at Augusta, but gives us chance to cash in this week. That Phil will challenge is almost inevitable. Let's hope he can find the edge to win this time around.
Webb Simpson has a home game this week, as he did last year when winning the Wyndham. Home form is not always the best inicator, but I think that is just another tick in the box for Webb Simpson this week. Without being spectacular, Simpson has been cashing cheques every week on tour this year and last week added a 13th to a 3rd, 8th and 10th earlier in the season. As the tour moved from bermudagrass to bentgrass last year (as a generalisation), Webb Simpson started to pump in a string of fine performances on tour, which but for a brilliant back 9 charge at the Disney from Luke Donald, would have brought him the Money List title last year. Put simply, Webb Simpson is very at home on Bentgrass surfaces and this tournament could be perfectly set up for him this week. Webb Simpson's recent putting stats have been very strong and a return to bentgrass will only help his claims here. Augusta aside, Simpson has been 1st, 13th and 5th for putts per round in the last 3 events. Simpson beat Dufner's score over the weekend last week. Clearly coming to the boil nicely, I think we have a real chance of him being in the mix come Sunday.
If we are talking good putters and tidy players around the green, then we have an excellent fit in Bo Van Pelt. With a good record on Bentgrass, great putting stats and proficeny on par 5s, which will be important for scoring here, Van Pelt should go well. Add in also demonstrated good performance here (5th 2010, 6th 2004) and Van Pelt shoul go well. Van Pelt has been a monster in round 4 this year. If he can ad consistency to his game over 3 rounds before Sunday, we could have a real chance with Van Pelt here.
To finish, 3 special bets. First, I am very happy to take an almost evens quote about the winner coming from the top 10 in the betting. As mentioned above, this course tends to reward the best players. I see this as a strong cover bet that has a great chance of success. For me, this is more a 4/5 shot, so we will happily take the value on board.
On a purely statistical basis, I am very happy to take SkyBet's 8/13 quote on no hole in one. In 9 years here there has been 1 hole in one at the 250 yard 6th hole. So, 1 in 9 years says 1/8 odds, not 8/13. Now, whilst 9 years is a smallish sample, I believe strongly that the 4/9 quote from Stan James is much more where the odds should be for this bet. .
Jonathan Byrd has has a decent start to 2012 and finished an encouraging 27th at the Masters. As runner up to Glover last year, Byrd demonstrated his affinity for the course an should be backed to go well here. In contract, Glover's form and fitness has been pretty poor since his win here last year. There is an awful lot to be said for Byrd's chances in this matchbet and he is a must back for me
Regards
Dave
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