Byron Nelson outright selections - http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/golf-tips-byron-nelson-outright.html
Midpoint selections http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/golf-tips-byron-nelson-championship_19.html
Last week, we highlighted the strength of the field, with no less than 23 players averaging 30th or better for their last 3 events and four players averaging better than 10th. This week we see a much weaker field. Louis Oosthuizen missed the cut last time out and is 7th in our averages for the last 3 events, averaging just below 30 (86+1+2).
Keegan Bradley prevailed last year, to give a hint of what was to come for one of the better players now on tour. However, his form before the event gave no hint that a win was close. Ryan Palmer was edged in a play-off last year and had only a 31st the week before and a MC prior to that. Joe Ogilvie and Ryu Imada were T3 and similarly, their form was unheralded coming in to the event. Of the top 5, only Jason Day was in form; his 5th here was part of a run of 5 top 10 finishes in 6 events.
Given the previous findings, recent form is irrelevant then? This is of course not enitely true, but it is fair to say that the premium on ball-strikers who enter the event in clear form is less significant here.
TPC four Seasons ranked 5th on tour last year (or 4th if you use my personal ranking approach). the weather is expected to be a little variable again this year and so clearly, we are looking for players who can control their game and keep big numbers off the card. Recent form can potentially mask the pre-requisite of finding tough players who can plot their way around the course and deal well with the inevitable dropped shots that come. However, there is always value in looking at the form guide, to see what potential does exist for finding high priced players who are dismissed by the layers and in some decent form.
As always, form versus betting position below, with thoughts on a few players who are lower in the betting than their form suggests beneath the table.
Brian Davis - I mention Davis every week and have backed him twice also, but Davis' form has been strong for a number of events now. With form of 4, 4, 13, 39, 9, 25 ,the last of which was in a much better field at the Players, Davis is worthy of serious respect on tour right now. Within that run of good form are a 4th and 13th in Texas, so some state positives as well. Add also that his last two events on Bentgrass - 4th and 9th from the run above - are strong and Davis ticks a lot of boxes, even at 40/1. A final positive is that if we ignore the MC in both 2011 and 2010, Davis finished 2nd here in 2009. He shot -17 that week, but a more gritty effort is likely to be required to prevail this time around. I could not deter anybody from backing Davis this week.
Boo Weekley - I am surprised to see Boo Weekley at 100/1 this week. He was going off at 40/1 as recently as 3 weeks ago, since which time he withdrew after 25 holes of the Texas Open and rejected his sponsors invite for the Zurich. The withdrawal was illness rather than injury and so, in this quality of field, I believe 100/1 to be overly dismissive. Boo was 14th and 6th in his last two events.....both in Texas, with the 13th place on Bentgrass. We were onside with Boo when he finished 6th - after 13 holes, he still had an outside shot at the title but then proceeded to drop 4 shots in 5 holes and miss a place by a shot. Clearly, his form is decent and as long as he has practiced enough, he has claims here. Boo has been in the top 40 for greens hit in his last 6 events (no surprise) and has been putting OK more often than not recently too (a definite surprise). I am tempted again to back Boo.
Bob Estes - Estes can putt on bentgrass, as last year's 2rd place at the Greenbrier shows (Estes was 3rd in putts per round that day). His form is coming round too, with 24th, 4th, MC and 15th in his last 4 outings. 150/1 is interesting this week, although anybody getting too excited needs to heed this cautionary note: Estes has missed 5 straight cuts in this event, the last 4 of which were on this course only.
David Mathis is 150/1 with Stan James, but generally 100s elsewhere. 80th here in 2011 and 39th in 2009 is not much to shout about, but recent form has been useful, with 3 top 20s in his last 4 outings. The concern concern I have with Mathis is that his 3 top 20s have been on Bermudagrass, with the failure coming on Bentgrass greens. I can leave him alone this week, although his generally good form makes him an option not without appeal.
Graham Delaet will put in a big week soon. At 100/1, he was in with a genuine chance of landing the Puerto Rico Open for us earlier in the season but faded on the back 9, eventually finishing 9th. Since then, a 4th place at the Zurich Classic further confirmed his credentials on tour. However, Delaet's only display on Bentgrass this season also produced his worst putting performance versus the field of the season. Although Delaet's length off the tee can be an advantage here, with driving accuracy less critical (none of the top 13 of last year featured in the top 10 in this stat), my doubts over his ability to putt well on the greens is enough for me to not make the hero call on him this week.
If you have any questions about this data, please contact me on twitter (link at the top of the blog) or by posting a comment below
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
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