Golf Tips - Memorial Tournament Course form

Hi all

I have the briefest of time before my holiday, so no hint at anything professional.  Below is the course form for this week's event at Muirfield Ohio.  The table is produced in the same way as previous, namely

My course analysis goes back to 2001 and I analyse in the following way:

• Tournament experience, with a maximum 8 points if a player has played 6 or more times
• Tournament history, with a maximum 10 points if a player has ever won the event, with further increments down to down to 2 points for any top 25.  
• Tournament form in 2012, 2011 and 2010, with up to 4 points available for each year.  
• Course experience points - As per tournament form, but for the specific course in use.  In reality, this is not a factor here as Muirfield host course in this period with exception of 2007, when 3 courses were used including Muirfield.  

As we are looking at course form in years gone by, not all in the field make the list due to 2012 being their debut year.  The final field is subject to potential change, so I have included the alternates for the event in the list also.  

So, looking purely at course and history form, with a ranking system that aims to differentiate between players who do consistently well and those who don't (either one hit wonders or those consistent performers who do not really challenge), we get the following results (Choi won in the 3 course format of 2007, so be wary of thinking him irresistible this week:

Rank	Name	Apps since '01
1	Steve Stricker	5
1	Tiger Woods	8
3	Jim Furyk	10
4	Justin Rose	7
4	K.J. Choi	11
4	Stewart Cink	11
7	Jonathan Byrd	9
8	Bo Van Pelt	8
8	Ryan Moore	6
10	Ernie Els	11
10	Mark Wilson	5
12	Davis Love III	8
12	Dustin Johnson	4
12	Phil Mickelson	5
15	Carl Pettersson	8
16	Mike Weir	10
17	Jerry Kelly	11
17	Sean O'Hair	6
19	Rory McIlroy	2
20	Adam Scott	6
20	Rickie Fowler	2
20	Ricky Barnes	2
20	Rod Pampling	10
24	Luke Donald	6
25	Brandt Jobe	3
25	Fred Couples	7
27	Ben Curtis	9
27	Vijay Singh	10
29	Geoff Ogilvy	10
29	John Senden	5
31	Bubba Watson	6
31	Hunter Mahan	5
31	Pat Perez	8
31	Steve Marino	5
35	Kevin Streelman	3
36	Aaron Baddeley	9
36	Chris DiMarco	8
36	Lucas Glover	6
36	Robert Allenby	9
36	Rory Sabbatini	6
36	Stuart Appleby	11
36	Trevor Immelman	8
43	Charl Schwartzel	4
43	D.A. Points	3
43	J.B. Holmes	6
43	Jeff Overton	4
43	Nick O'Hern	5
43	Ryuji Imada	5
49	Webb Simpson	3
50	Billy Mayfair	9
50	Brian Davis	4
50	Bryce Molder	3
50	Camilo Villegas	5
50	John Mallinger	4
50	Kevin Stadler	4
50	Nick Watney	4
57	Y.E. Yang	4
58	Gary Woodland	1
59	Angel Cabrera	2
59	Bill Haas	6
59	Brendon de Jonge	2
59	Greg Owen	4
59	Paul Casey	4
59	Troy Matteson	4
65	Ben Crane	3
65	Charley Hoffman	5
65	Greg Chalmers	3
65	Heath Slocum	3
65	Jason Day	3
70	Andres Romero	1
70	Brandt Snedeker	4
70	Briny Baird	4
70	George McNeill	4
70	Kevin Na	3
70	Scott Stallings	1
76	Blake Adams	2
76	Boo Weekley	3
76	Chris Couch	3
76	Erik Compton	3
76	James Driscoll	3
76	Johnson Wagner	3
76	Ken Duke	3
76	Marc Leishman	3
76	Robert Garrigus	3
76	Spencer Levin	2
86	Henrik Stenson	2
86	Jimmy Walker	2
86	Josh Teater	2
86	Kris Blanks	2
86	Seung-Yul Noh	2
86	Tom Gillis	2
92	Kyle Stanley	1
93	Brendan Steele	1
93	Cameron Tringale	1
93	Charlie Wi	1
93	Chris Kirk	1
93	Chris Stroud	1
93	Colt Knost	1
93	Daniel Summerhays	1
93	Graham DeLaet	1
93	Jhonattan Vegas	1
93	Keegan Bradley	1
93	Kyle Reifers	1
93	Scott Piercy	1
93	Tommy Gainey	1

Regards

Dave (OneBet)

OneBet Racing Selections - 27th May

27th May

Kelso
14.15 Makbullet 2nd
2.45 Endeavor 12/1 - 1pt e/w  LOST-2PTS
15.20 Crowning Jewel WON
15.50 Rockabilly 11/2 - 1pt Win, Inverlocy Lad 10/1 - 1pt e/w LOST -3PTS
16.25 Rupert Bear 4/1 - 2pt Win NR


Meeting Total:-5PTS


Fakenham
14.25 Medic Man 10/3 -2pt Win 2nd -2PTS
14.55 Phonenix Des Mottes - 17/2 1pt ew -2PTS
16.05 Art History  2nd
17.10 Back on Tow 6/1 -1pt Win 2nd -1PT


Meeeting Total: -5PTS


Tasty Treble: Crowning Jewel, Makbullet, Art History 5/1 - 2pt Win LOST -2PTS


Daily Total -7PTS

OneBet Racing Selections - 23rd May

23rd May


Worcester
17.50 Baddam 10/3 - 2pt Win - (OneBet Longshot - Classic Rock 40/1 0.5Pts ew) LOST -3PTS
18.20 Francesca 4/1 - 2pt Win LOST -2PTS
18.50 Up to the Mark 14/1 - 1pt ew LOST -2PTS
19.20 Hinton Pilot 4/1 - 2pt Win LOST -2PTS
19.50 Its Oscar 15/8 NB - 3pt Win LOST -3PTS
20.20 Presenting Ace 7/2 - 2pt Win -2PTS
20.50 Themanfromfraam 9/2 - 2pt Win WON+9 PTS

Meeting Total: -5PTS




Darren
OneBet

Golf Tips - BMW PGA Championship outright selections

Outright selections
1.5pts EW Justin Rose at 22/1 (Bet365, Betfred both 6 places) Result : EW Profit 7.25pts
1pt EW Matteo Manassero at 33/1 (Various) Loss 2pts
1pt EW Francesco Molinari at 35/1 (Bodog, 33/1 various) Loss 2pts
0.5pts EW Victor Dubuisson at 100/1 (Various, but take 6 places) Loss 1pt
0.5pts EW Stephen Gallacher at 200/1 (Various, but take 6 places) Loss 1pt
0.5pts EW Richie Ramsay at 125/1 (Betfred, Totesport) Loss 1pt

Overall profit : +0.25pts

Golf Tips - Crowne Plaza Invitational Outright selections

Outright selections
2pts EW Rickie Fowler at 16/1 (Various, but take Bodog's 6 places) Loss 4 pts
1pt EW John Senden at 50/1 (Bet365, Skybet) Loss 2pts
1.5pts EW David Toms at 28/1 (Various) Loss 3pts
1pt Pat Perez to place at 14/1 (Paddy Power, William Hill) Loss 1pt

Total loss : 10 points

Crowne Plaza player form http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/golf-tips-crowne-plaza-player-form.html
Crowne Plaza course form http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/golf-tips-crowne-plaza-course-form.html

Guide
The PGA tour once again heads to Colonial this week for the Crowne Plaza Invitational.  David Toms is back this week to defend the title he eventually won narrowly last year.  A good field assembles here too; at the head of the betting, we see FedEx cup leader and dual winner Jason Dufner only 4th favourite behind the joint market leaders Zach Johnson, Matt Kuchar and Rickie Fowler.

Colonial rewards accurate players who can get hot with the putter.  Bombers typically do not do so well, with the tree lined nature of the course more readily rewarding straighter hitters.  Last year, Martin Laird was the only player finishing in the top 15 to rank in the top 10 for driving distance.  David Toms won last year by finishing 7th in driving accuracy, 6th in greens hit and 1st in total putts.  6 of the top 9 from last year were in the top 20 for greens hit.  However, it was putting that really set the leaders apart from the rest, with the aforementioned Toms (1st in total putts ),Wi (3rd) and Van Pelt (2nd) highlighting that the very best putters this week will prosper.  I have heard some reports that perhaps the greens are not so fast this week, which may equalise the field a little if true come Thursday.

However, a look at the recent roll-call of winners demonstrates that experience is arguably the biggest pre-requisite around here.  Toms last succeeded the likes of Zach Johnson, Steve Stricker, Phil Mickelson, Tim Herron and Kenny Perry as winners of this event to have previously played the course on numerous occasions.  Indeed, one has to go back to Sergio in 2001 to find a player who bucks this trend.

At the time of writing, the biggest gambles this week have come on Zach Johnson, Bo Van Pelt and David Toms, with huge support for Harris English, who, aligned to a fine regular tour season, waltzed through Open qualifying, shooting 60/63 in the process.  English has the experience factor against him and I have to overlook him this week, at both the shortened price offered at time of writing (70s) and the opening price (100s).  I can only back players who have learned about the course previously and shown at least signs that they can master the course if on song this week.

A final note about the weather.  David Toms won with -15 last year, with -21 and -17 the winning score in the two years prior.  Toms actually led the field by 7 after round 2; successive 62s left Toms -16, demonstrating that this course can be a birdie fest for those who could keep themselves out of trouble consistently enough.  However, the weather looks to be a significant factor this week.  Winds are expected to reach 20kph for Thursday through Sunday, with only a slight abatement expected on Sunday.  If true, players will not be shooting -15 this year and a grittier approach may be required to prevail .

My selections
Having not published on Monday this week, I write having seen so many pundits tipping up Zach Johnson this week.  At no.1 in my course form guide above (link above) and 2nd at the Players last time out, it is clear to see why he is popular.  However, in this quality of field, I simply do not trust him enough at the price quoted.  Johnson thrives when the remit is accurate play, but I am not convinced he is putting well enough to be trusted at these prices.  29th in total putts when 2nd last time out is OK, but prior to that, Johnson was 87th on his last bentgrass appearance.  I also question how much I can trust Zach Johnson to remain consistent for one more week, as he hasn't stayed hot for long in the last couple of seasons.  Clearly, he loves the course, but is not for me this week.

Of the favourites, Rickie Fowler gets my vote this week.  Fowler has only played here twice, but arrives as the number one player in my form ranks (link above), having been 1st and 2nd in his last two events.  In progressive form here with 38th in 2010 and 16th last year, I expect a big performance from Fowler again this week.  If the winds do come this week as expected, there are none I favour more than Fowler here.  One of the World's finest ball strikers when on song, Fowler has been 15th, 8th and 2nd in his last 3 events for greens hit.  Also, his total driving has been amongst the best in the field in recent events.  Fowler is a class act who may be starting to get truly comfortable with that notion.  If his form continues in to this week, he has an outstanding chance.

David Toms also makes my team this week.  Toms shot the 60th best round on Saturday last year and almost threw the tournament away.  However, he shot the best round on Thursday and Friday, finishing with the 3rd best round on Sunday to edge the tournament.  Toms was sensational for 3 days and finished a full 5 shots clear of 3rd place.  Anything like that performance again this week will see Toms at least in the mix for a place.  The familiar Toms accuracy from the tee (4th driving accuracy) to green (6th in greens hit) returned at the Players.  If putting follows, Toms will go very close.

John Senden is worth a play here.  8th last year, Senden can obviously play the course.  At the Players, Senden led the field for greens hit and sat 13th in driving accuracy.  Only 121st in putting on the Bermudagrass of Sawgrass, Senden sat 34th the week before on bentgrass.  Winds will not overly upset Senden and I really believe he can make a run at the places here.

Finally, I think a 14/1 place only play on Pat Perez is outstanding value.  Prior to a 62nd here last year, Perez was 10th, 6th and 4th here.  Perez is in fine form of late, with only a less than stellar putting display keeping him from real contention last week.  Whilst a bentgrass failure last week causes some concern, I am well aware that a number of top players and putters suffered badly in the difficult conditions last week.  17th and 14th in total putts the 2 weeks before that, I am happy to believe Perez can putt well again here.  Aside from putting, Perez's ball striking is very good right now.  In the last two events Perez has been 26th and 31st for driving distance, but 21st and 28th for accuracy at the same time.  In addition, Perez has also been 28th and 16th in greens hit.  In short, Perez has everything required to get in the mix here provided he putts better.  I have gone place only as I do not see Perez winning, but he can certainly place here.

Regards

Dave (OneBet)

Golf Tips - Crowne Plaza player form guide

Golf Tips - Crowne Plaza player form guide


Crowne Plaza outright selections http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/golf-tips-crowne-plaza-invitational.html
Crowne Plaze course form guide http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/golf-tips-crowne-plaza-course-form.html

An interesting field assembles this week for the Crowne Plaza Invitational, with strong contenders but no clear favourite heading the field.  At least, that is the bookmaker's view.  Players Champion Matt Kuchar, course form expert Zach Johnson (see my course form comments at the link above, where Johnson ranks No.1) and first time winner Rickie Fowler head up the betting.  Just behind are Fedex Cup Leader and twice winner in 3 events Jason Dufner.

Bombers need not apply here this week.  Or at least, the ability to play accurate golf greatly outweighs the need to be long.  As always, such demands usually point to having onside players in demonstrable form.  Perhaps more than recent events, putting is also a strong factor here and so players who have demonstrated all round proficiency in recent weeks should be strongly considered this week.

Last year, eventual winner David Toms arrived in great form, which culminated in his narrow failure to win the Players Championship immediately prior to this event.  Expect a player near the head of our form guide here to be in contention deep in to Sunday.

As usual, some thoughts below the usual table on those players in great form, but dismissed by the layers.

Jonas Blixt.  Blixt was a go to option of mine on the Nationwide tour last year.  Blixt placed 5 times in the second half of the season, but was often a great value price. With 3 straight top 15s on the main tour, there are clear signs that Blixt is starting to feel at home.  However, at a best price 70/1, it is clear that bookies are still ready to take him on.  Blixt is an interesting option here too.  I mentioned earlier that putting is important around this track.  It is noteworthy that Blixt has ranked 19th and 5th for total putts in his last two events.  These are his best 2 results of the season, both achieved on Bentgrass.  Blixt is straight rather than long and should find this event fits his eye quite nicely.  3rd last time out, also in Texas, I would not actively discourage anybody from Blixt this week.

Jonathan Byrd has been in sound form of late, with a 12th at the Players following a 9th on Bentgrass at the Wells Fargo Championship. Byrd is a decent all round driver, and was a useful 28th for greens hit last time out.  Rarely a brilliant putter, Byrd is an OK option this week, but hardly irresistible.  7 appearances here, with a distant 8th and 5 MCs confirms this perspective.  No bet.

John Rollins is a player I often fear omitting.  However, in 9 appearances here, Rollins has done precious little to inspire, with a 24th and 48th position his only top 50s.  Rollins is typically in solid form, driving nicely, hitting more than his share of greens and putting pretty well.  I am surprised his record is so abject here actually, although 3 top 10s in Rollins' last 24 Bentgrass PGA events in my records hardly inspires either.  66/1 is not a good enough price to consider a turn around in fortunes this week.

That Ryan Moore often is priced around 66s is a sign of two things.  Firstly, even when off form, layers are cautious in dismissing this potentially fantastic iron player.  Second, he is simply too inconsistent to command a shorter price.  So, tough to call.  Moore can certainly putt on Bentgrass and has several place finishes in the last 3 seasons to confirm that fact.  Moore produced his worst putting display of the season last time out at the Players, but that was Bermuda.  Moore has been in the top 20 for total putts in 2 of his last four events - both on bentgrass and one in Texas (Shell Houston Open).  So, there are definite reasons to like aspects of his game here.  I have to leave him alone here however, as he has failed to make any impact in 5 attempts here.

Brendon De Jonge is starting to appear on leaderboards again after a fairly lean spell.  However, at 125/1, it is clear that layers do not rate his chances here this week.  De Jonge has a pair of 50 something finishes here, which is nothing special.  De Jonge can putt on Bentgrass, leading the field for total putts at the Shell Houston in 2011 with two further putting top 5s on Bentgrass last year.  However, his form is just not quite where I would want it to be to back him as a live outsider this week.

Boo Weekley was part of our selections last week and after a good performance in the first two rounds, he really fell away over the weekend.  I have to dismiss Boo this week, as he putted horribly last week.  The tentative improvement in this aspect of his game in recent weeks was completely eroded in the difficult conditions of last week.  The positive that remains for Boo is that he was again in the  top 10 (6th) for greens hit.  However, I need to see much better evidence that he is putting well to back him here.

JJ Henry eventually finished 3rd to fall behind our midpoint selections Jason Dufner and Dickie Pride last time out.  However, his performance under extreme pressure was most impressive.  Henry asserts that he hit a good shot on 17, only to find a difficult chip and eventual 3 putt would cost him any chance at the title.  16th in greens last week and 19th in putts, Henry holds initial appeal.  However, one feels that Henry's special knowledge of TPC Four Seasons last week was a key factor in his improved game.  Henry is a general 100/1 and even at that price, I can't back him here.  In 10 appearances at Colonial, Henry has only one top 50 - a 22nd in 2009.  Good luck to you if you back Henry here to follow up.  Not for me.

In summary, it is difficult to get overly excited about any of our long shots this week.  Blixt represents the best value option.  I will probably keep a watching brief on him and may consider trying to get him onside if he drifts a little after only a moderate start.

Regards

Dave (OneBet)

Golf Tips - Crowne Plaza Course Form Guide

Golf Tips - Crowne Plaza Course Form Guide


Crowne Plaza outright selections http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/golf-tips-crowne-plaza-invitational.html
Crowne Plaza player form guide http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/golf-tips-crowne-plaza-player-form.html



The PGA tour again heads to Colonial GC in Texas for the Crowne Plaza Invitational.  Here we look at the course form of the field that assembles this week, which will be a key consideration in analysing our likely winner.

My course analysis goes back to 2001 and I analyse in the following way:

• Tournament experience, with a maximum 8 points if a player has played 6 or more times
• Tournament history, with a maximum 10 points if a player has ever won the event, with further increments down to down to 2 points for any top 25.  
• Tournament form in 2012, 2011 and 2010, with up to 4 points available for each year.  
• Course experience points - As per tournament form, but for the specific course in use.  In reality, this is not a factor here as Colonial has been the singular host course for this long-established event.

As we are looking at course form in years gone by, not all in the Crowne Plaza field make the list due to 2012 being their debut year.  As this post is sent so early on, I have included the alternates for the event, as withdrawals between now and the event's start are likely.  

So, looking purely at course and history form, with a ranking system that aims to differentiate between players who do consistently well and those who don't (either one hit wonders or those consistent performers who do not really challenge), we get the following results:

Zach Johnson tops my form rankings here and with good reason.  2nd last time out at the Players, Johnson boasts a 4th, 1st and 9th in the last 3 years here.  16/1 is tight, but tempting for a man right in form.  In recent years, Zach has played in pockets of good form.  The season ending Chevron aside, Zach had 4 top 10 results in 2011.  they came in a run of 6, 12, 4 ending here and then a run of 3, 16, 6.  So, Zach is a great guy to be onside when he advertises form.  He has been 2, 69, 2 in the last 3 events, so is an enticing prospect.  The counter argument to that is that, for a man without a win since 2010, Zach's 5 top 10s last year came in 23 events.  4/1 the place is statistically unattractive, with the question being whether he can again find his groove here.

Next up, David Toms.  8th in 2001, 2nd in 2002, and 3rd in 2005 with two further top 20s in 2007 and 2010, Toms won in 2011 to erase the disappointment of a play-off loss at the Players.  Toms could even afford a poor round 3 after absolutely blitzing the field in the first 2 rounds.  Toms was in a fine run of form last year, leading to his victory here.  Less impressive so far in 2012, 15th and 10th in the last 2 events serves as proof that Toms is gearing up to defend his title strongly this week.  I am not convinced he wins, but the 33/1 on offer is certainly enticing.  With 10 appearances since 2001 and nothing worse than 44th, Toms is a spread betters dream this week.  Anything approaching a sell price of 40 (likely) is very much worth getting on side.

Stewart Cink is perhaps the first surprising inclusion.  However, Cink seems to enjoy his birthday celebrations at this event.  Cink is ultra-consistent here with a 57th and 33rd in his last 10 appearances being the only time he has been outside the top 26.  With only top 10 - 4th in 2006 - however, he is a tough guy to back for the place positions.

Bo Van Pelt, is in good form, just missing a place position last time out at the Players.  His record here is pretty special too.  Around the lean years here between 2007 and 2009, Van Pelt was 5th, 17, and 12 2004-2006, 10th in 2010 and 3rd last year.  Van Pelt is in much better form this year too.  If we ignore his MC at the Heritage, Van Pelt's form reads thus: 8, 8, 8, 9, 17, 7.  Brilliant form, but never quite getting the job done.  30/1 is a useful price for Van Pelt to make the tiny improvement versus the field required.

Rory Sabbatini is next up, due in no small part to his win in 2007.  16th last year shows he can still dial in to this course too.  Sabbatini arrives with 3 straights MCs.  You are a brave man to back him right now and although 150/1 seems huge, Sabbatini's iron play is poor enough right now to be left alone.

Scott Verplank is another in no kind of form at all.  Verplank has a 5th and 7th here but simply must be overlooked, even though odds of 250/1 are readily available.

Finally Sergio.  Garcia won this event back in 2001 and was 16th last time out after a 6 year absence.  However, Garcia looks too short to me at 35/1, especially as he is without a top 5 since the Northern Trust Open in February.


Regards

Dave (OneBet)

OneBet Racing Selections 21st May

21st May

Newton Abbott
14.20 Russie With Love 7/2 - 1pt Win LOST - 1pt
14.50 Sulpius 10/1 - 1pt ew placed + 0.5 PTS
15.20 Zama Zama 5/1 - 1pt Win WON +5PTS
15.50 Overdante 6/1 - 1pt Win LOST -1pt
16.20 Mister Matt 11/1 - 1pt ew placed +1.2PTS
16.50 Billy Twyford 13/8 - 2pt Win WON +3.25PTS
17.20 Gwanako 2/3 Win - No Bet


Meeting Total: +7.95PTS

OneBet Racing Selections 20th May

20th May

Stratford
14.20 High Storm 6/4 - 2pt Win WON+3PTS
14.50 My Viking Bay 2/1 - 2pt Win LOST -2PTS
15.20 Owen Glendower 13/2 - 1pt Win LOST -1PTS
15.50 Madame Jasmine 8/1 - 1pt Win LOST -1PTS
16.20 Domtaline NAP 5/6 - 3pt Win WON @5/4 +3.75PTS
16.50 Champagne N Caviar NB 9/4 - 2pt Win LOST -2PTS


Meeting Total: +0.75PTS


Limerick
13.55 Court Lexi 5/4 NAP - 3pt Win WON+3.75PTS
14.25 I never knew that 8/1 - 1pt Win LOST -1PTS
14.55 Dunroe Boy 9/2 -1pt Win  (OneBet Longshot Chrisdonlady 33/1 1pt ew) LOST -3PTS
15.25 Beef To The Heels 16/1 - 1pt ew LOST -2PTS
15.55 Cadspeed 4/1 - 2pt Win LOST -2PTS
16.25 Royal Choice 10/1 1pt e/w LOST -2PTS
16.55 Rudi Trucker 10/1 - 1pt e/w Placed +1.5PTS
17.25 Zuzka 6/4 NB- 3pt Win WON@5/2 +7.5PTS


Meeting Total:+2.75PTS


Daily Total: +3.5PTS

Golf Tips - Byron Nelson final round perspective

Selections
No additional selections

Contending players already advised
2pts Matt Kuchar at 5.6/1 (Betfair)
2pts Jason Dufner at 4.6/1 (Betfair)
0.5pts EW Dicky Pride at 50/1 (Bet365 - next best 40/1 with Skybet, which is marginal value).

A brief update on my thoughts ahead of the final round.  As Boo Weekley and Brian Davis have fallen away, we are left with our 3 halfway selections in with a chance going in to the final round.

27 players sit within 6 shots of Jason Dufner's lead and retain a reasonable to outside chance of taking the title.  The bookmakers are fairly dismissive of this point however, as they offer <10/1 (3 places still offered as well) on only 2 golfers with rest 10/1 or higher.  In the bookmaker's mind, it is Jason Day (3/1) or Jason Dufner's (21/10 favourite) title to lose.  I agree they are favourites here, but for two men so unaccustomed actually winning tournaments, I question the gap in odds that exists to local favourite JJ Henry, who has played this course so often and Dicky Pride, who was ultra-solid yesterday and sits one off Dufner's lead.

Let's consider that point further.  Jason Day won his one tour title here 2 years ago and Jason Dufner started an eventful last few weeks by winning the Zurich Classic 3 weeks ago (married the week after and now leading here).  Dicky Pride won his one title at the St Jude Classic in 1994.  Finally, JJ Henry won the Buick Championship in 2006 for his only tour win.  So, 4 players with one title each, at the head of the field.

Jason Day backers should be slightly concerned about Day's conversion rate.  The following figures show, for the last 2 years, Day's halfway position when in the top 10, with his final position in brackets.  Oldest first:(here, in 2010).

3(1), 2(9), 1(5), 1(2), 8(17), 2(2), 3(9), 5(4), 3(6), 8(9),

So, 10 times in the last two years Day has been right in the mix at halfway but has only improved his position twice.  This is a very similar profile to McIlroy in many ways.  Like McIlroy, Day is young and a growing maturity allied to unquestioned natural ability will likely see him win often over his career.  However, I am happy to believe he is more likely to meander than fire from his position alongside Dufner in the final group.

In the same time period, I have precious little on Henry, with only a 4th at halfway in which he finished 15th and a 5th which became 24th come the end of round 4.  Again, I have little to fear here.

Finally, we summarised Dicky Pride yesterday. He was added to the staking plan for two reasons.  First, he has shown on both previous recent occasions that when contending he can hang around.  That is exactly what he did yesterday.  Hanging around is just what I want him to do today as well.  If he does that, a place position is likely and a win also distinctly possible.  The second reason is that 50/1 was incredibly dismissive from Bet365 and did not represent his true chances in my view (Pride is now 14/1 best price).  I believe we have the best mix of two golfers from the 4 players at the head of the field.

The lack of winning experience does raise the question of whether any other players can come from deep to take the title.  The weather will dictate whether a player can come from off the pace by scorching around the course or just steadily inching forward (probably the latter), but there are some big name players not too far behind.  Our final midway selection Matt Kuchar is one of them.  The reason Matt Kuchar is 4 from the lead is entirely because his putting stroke completely betrayed him in difficult conditions yesterday.  Kuchar 3 putted at least twice on the back 9 yesterday and failed to get up and down on a couple of further occasions.  Missing putts from within 10 feet became a feature of his round.  I would be surprised if he could turn his putting around enough to come back now.  It may be possible to lay him on BetFair for around a 5th of the original stake or consider laying him some time during the final round if he reduces towards original odds, but I would not formally advise either.  When a player is still in contention, I personally do not see the value in trying to lay off a golfer for a fraction of the original stake.

Of the others chasing, the undoubted pedigree of Vijay 2 shots back is a concern, as are the lurking Leishman (great player in adverse conditinos), Piercy (contended here last year), Bradley (won here last year), Palmer (play-off loser here last year, Texan, good player in the wind) and a host of others who might.

However, this course can bite anybody and so I am not going to have faith that any player will come from deep here, given that one shot can go offline and lead to a double bogey, which effectively will kill their chances.  I liked the way Dufner closed out at the Zurich and I am keeping faith he will again.  If he doesn't, let's hope it is Dicky Pride steaming past him to break a tour record for the longest gap between wins.

Regards

Dave (OneBet)

Golf Tips - Byron Nelson Championship Midpoint Considerations

Outright selections

2pts Matt Kuchar at 5.6/1 (Betfair) Loss 2pts
2pts Jason Dufner at 4.6/1 (Betfair) W Profit 8.74pts (9.2pts minus maximum 5% BF commission)
0.5pts EW Dicky Pride at 50/1 (Bet365 - next best 40/1 with Skybet, which is marginal value). EW Profit 5.75pts

Total profit : 12.49pts

Outright selections (before the start of the event) http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/golf-tips-byron-nelson-outright.html
Player form guide http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/golf-tips-byron-nelson-championship.html


As we head in to the weekend, we see an intriguing and congested leaderboard at The Byron Nelson Championship.  For the OneBet team, we have Boo Weekley within 4 of the lead and Brian Davis a further shot back after a best of the day 65.  However, our shortest price selections - Adam Scott and Louis Oosthuizen - both failed to make the cut.  It makes sense to again look at the midpoint market which gave us a nice each way return with Martin Laird last week.

This tournament is a frustration to date.  As I mentioned in the blog, I had Dufner, Leishman, Blake Adams and Pettersson strongly in mind.  Although the latter missed the cut, Dufner is -7 and leading after a stunning tee to green display.  Leishman is a shot back and Adams handily placed at -3.  In this respect, we have missed out on the value for these players from the off.  With this in mind, let's see what value exists from looking first at past indicators and then at the merits of those players challenging near the head of the field.

The first chart shows the position of the eventual winner at the halfway stage since 2001.

With the exception of last year, where Keegan Bradley came from 5 shots back to beat Ryan Palmer in a play-off from 8th at half way, the winner has always been in the top 5 heading in to the weekend.  So, clearly it is favourable to have your player right at the head of the field.  In this case, I am concerned about having not picked Dufner, as the leader at this stage has won 5 times in the last 11 years.  I am aware of course that it is only since 2007 that we have played a single course format here (Cottonwood was dropped in 2007).  However, over the weekend only TPC Four Season was used, making the information above very relevant.

Let's look at the players finishing in the place positions now.

This is an interesting profile as more than most tournaments, we see that a player can charge from way deep to get in the mix.  It seems odd that only 5 players have been between 20th and 40th at halfway, yet the same number of players have come from 49th-60th to place.  Clearly, if you can find a groove here, you will make massive gains over the field, particularly if the wind blows.  Last year Jason Day moved +3 to -1 over the weekend, to go from 60th to 5th, only 2 shots from the play-off. The year before, Brian Gay produced a stunning 63 (in better conditions than 2011), to really make headway.  Brian Davis' 65 yesterday saw him make up well over 100 places on the field.  Momentum can be a major ally over the weekend.

The other significant point of note is here that the leader at halfway has at least placed on every single occasion that this event has taken place.  Jason Dufner is now 9/2 and the fact that he is odds against for a place makes him a very interesting consideration for a fair sized EW bet at this stage.  To consider this, we need to consider the merits of the player.

With this in mind, let's look at the propensity of those players in contention to perform well over the weekend.  First, my usual look at players and how they have fared when top 20 at halfway.

Charley Hoffman is number 1 in our ranks here despite actually decelerating on average over the weekend.  He averages 6th at halfway and 6.7th by the finish.  So, nobody here to entirely trust it seems.

Kuchar looks a clear danger.  Despite the rarity of back to back winners being a factor against him, his Players win shows both his form and his tenacity when in contention.  He is 2nd in our ranks here and we have 15 tournaments to analyse in making that statement.  Mr Consistency could be starting to learn how to win, but I am not sure I am about to back that he does at 5/1.  The way I would advise backing Kuchar is on Betfair right now.  the reason is that he is generally a very consistent player in round 3.  In the last 6 events on tour, he has ranked 3rd, 19th, 8th, 16th, 1st and 5th for the 3rd round.  His final round stats are less compelling, so I would be keen to get him onside and consider the position again before round 4.  there is currently a lot of equity at 6.6 (5.6/1) and I am keen to take that option.

So what of Dufner?  His rank of 11th is OK in the last couple of years.  Again, my concern with Dufner is his 4th round performance.  Dufner has had one of the top 10 rounds of the day no less than 11 times in rounds 1 and 2, compared with just 3 occasions over the weekend, all in round 3.  This explains why 6 top 10s at halfway has translated in to only 3 top 10s, only one of which has been a paying position (1st, Zurich Classic).  The question with Dufner then is whether we can trust the Zurich win turns around his mindset over the weekend.  The other question is whether Dufner can get the putter warm over the weekend.  If he does, he is almost unstoppable.  Dufner leads the field in driving accuracy and GIR after 2 rounds, but has taken 34 and 33 putts in doing so.  His ball-striking is impeccable and that very much fits the bill here.  Even decent putting over the weekend will see him go very close.  Let's look at the final graph before deciding.  This looks at how players fare from a top 10 position at halfway.

Our leader, Dufner, is even worse off in this comparison, which we expect given the above analysis.  However, nobody around him is exactly irresistible either.  We backed Dicky Pride a couple of weeks ago at massive odds and I will be really frustrated to see him prevail here.  Pride is playing well and ranks 3rd in weekend performance above, albeit from only 2 samples.  Kuchar is less impressive in this analysis, although 10 starts is a much more reliable data set than most.  Imada improved to 3rd here last year so will take positive memories in to the weekend.  Bradley also sits 8th again this year, the position from which he won last year.

My advised play is to back Kuchar on Betfair and Dufner too, given both are much better in round 3 than round 4.  I am also going to have an EW play on Pride, who continues to be dismissed at 50/1.  This is a smaller play due to his inexperience at the head of the fields since he returned to the tour (17 years since his last tour win is a little too distant to rely on!), but his form makes him an interesting option.  Those 3, with Weekley and Davis also in the mix, represent a good portfolio of options for the weekend.  I will return after round 3 to summarise the position with regards to Kuchar and Dufner (as long as they have not imploded).  Hopefully they are both 4 clear of Weekley and there is nothing to do, but I suspect things will be a little trickier than that.

Regards

Dave (OneBet)

OneBet Racing Selections 19th May

19th May

Bangor
14.05 Heliopsis 4/1 - 1pt Win LOST -1PT
14.35 Orlittlebylittle 9/2 - 1pt Win WON +4.5PTS Rule 4 revised payout +3.3PTS
15.10 Golden Call 5/4 NAP - 3pt Win WON+3.75PTS
15.45 Nowurhurlin 9/1 - 1pt ew LOST -2PTS
16.20 Absinthe 2/1 - 3pt Win WON +6PTS
16.55 Fabrika 6/5 - 2pt Win (OneBet Longshot - Definitely Pip 50/1 - 1pt e/w) LOST-4PTS
17.30 What a Laugh 4/9 - Win no Bet

Meeting Total: +6.05PTS


Uttoxeter
17.25 Boy Chuck 6/1 - 1pt Win - LOST -1PT
17.55 King Edmund 5/4 NAP - 3pt Win LOST -3PTS
18.25 Jolly Roger 9/4 - 2pt Win WON+4.5PTS
18.55 Fairleigh House 11/2 - 2pt Win LOST-2PTS
19.30 Double Fortune 11/4 - 2pt Win LOST-2PTS
20.00 Wild Rhubarb 4/1 - 2pt Win WON@15/2 +15PTS
20.30 Amber Cloud 7/2 -2pt Win (OneBet Longshot Generous John 20/1 - 1pt e/w) LOST -4PTS

Meeting Total:+7.5PTS


Newbury
13.30 Viewpoint 4/1 - 1pt win LOST -1PT
14.00 Ibicenco 9/4 - 2pt Win LOST - 2PTS
14.30 Whailey 6/1 - 1pt Win LOST -1PT
15.05 Poetic Lord 25/1 - 1pt ew LOST -2PTS
15.40 Frankel 3/10 Win - No Bet (See Below 4 Fold) WON
16.50 Widyaan 12/1 - 1pt ew LOST-2PTS
17.20 Ziefd 14/1 - 1pt ew LOST -2PTS
17.50 Poole Harbour 8/1 - 1pt Win NR


Meeting Total:-10PTS

OneBet 4 Fold Win - 7.57/1 - 2pt Win LOST -2PTS


Daily Total +1.5PTS

Selections

Event

Event Date

Odds

E/W Terms

Result

1

Frankel

3.40 Newbury Win and Each Way

19/05/2012

3/10

2 Places 1/4 Odds

To Run

2

Master Of The Game

2.05 Bangor Win and Each Way

19/05/2012

5/6

3 Places 1/5 Odds

To Run

3

Golden Call

3.10 Bangor Win and Each Way

19/05/2012

4/5

2 Places 1/4 Odds

To Run

4

Fabrika

4.55 Bangor Win and Each Way

19/05/2012

1/1

3 Places 1/5 Odds

To Run