Golf tips - The Tour Championship Tips and Tournament form guide

Outright selections
1.5pts EW Jim Furyk at 25/1 (Various)
0.75pts EW Nick Watney at 40/1 (Various)
0.75pt EW Sergio Garcia at 28/1 (Coral, BoyleSports)
0.75pts EW Ryan Moore at 55/1 (Stan James, 50/1 general)

For East Lake facts and figures click here

Hi all

The usual course/tournament form analysis below.


My tournament analysis goes back to 2001 and I analyse in the following way:

• Tournament experience, with a maximum 8 points if a player has played 6 or more times
• Tournament history, with a maximum 10 points if a player has ever won the event, with further increments down to down to 2 points for any top 25.  
• Tournament form in 2012, 2011 and 2010, with up to 4 points available for each year.  
• Course experience points - As per tournament form, but for the specific course in use.  Aside from 2001 and 2003, East Lake has been the host course.
• There are 3 factors which dilute the effectiveness of going back to 2001 for course form


• Champions GC in Houston was the host course in 2001/2003, not East Lake


• Putting surfaces changed from Bentgrass to Bermudagreass in 2008


• The Tour Championship only became the FedEx cup finale (its current guise) in 2007.

Despite these factors, it makes every sense to consider a longer course and tournament history; players who had a liking for the layout in 2006 will have a liking in 2012, even if they may find the pressure and putting surfaces different to pre FedEx cup days.

As we are looking at course form in years gone by, not all in the field make the list due to 2012 being their debut year. However, 23 out of 30 possible entrants do tee up, further confirming the quality of the field that assembles this week.  Of the first-timers that do tee up this week, the likes of Robert Garrigus and a certain Rory McIlroy can not be ignored.

So, looking purely at course and history form, with a ranking system that aims to differentiate between players who do consistently well and those who don't (either one hit wonders or those consistent performers who do not really challenge), we get the following results, with further analysis below the table:

As it is the tour finale, I am going to summarise the merits of all players in the field for my tournament analysis in order of my ranking.

Tournament rank 1: Phil Mickelson, 12/1 general.  4th in FedEx standings

After 4 top 4 finishes in 6 events, including victory at the AT&T at Pebble and a dreadful bounce from a thin piece of temporary stand arguably costing him the Masters, Phil rather drifted away from the business end of tournament golf..........until the FedEx cup play-offs.  A charging 4th at the Deutsche and 2nd at the BMW having co-led through 54 holes tells us Phil is back.  And, he is number 1 ranked here on tournament form too.  Phil was 5th here back in 2002 and, since 2007 when this became the FedEx cup climax and Bermuda grass greens arrived a year later, he has been a factor.  3rd in 2008, 1st in 2009 and 10th in 2011 tells you Phil may be hard to keep away from the sharp end next week.  There are two ways of looking at recent results here.  Phil was also 22nd in 2010.  In the last two years then, Phil has "only" been 22nd and 10th in a 30 man field.  12/1 is a little tough to be on side with; 2 hot tournaments after a bleak mid-season makes 3/1 the place marginal, even in such a limited field,

Tournament rank 2: Jim Furyk 25/1 general. 18th in FedEx cup standings.

Now, this guy is interesting.  Furyk did not make 2011 here, which is probably the only thing that has him out of top spot in the tournament ranks.  Furyk finished 8th and 2nd here before the FedEx cup event switch in 2007.  11th in 2007 was only OK, but since the switch to Bentgrass in 2008, Furyk has been 6th and 7th before landing the whole thing by winning in 2010.  It will take a stunning sequence of events for him to land the overall FedEx cup prize this time, but winning the tournament itself is not such a leap of faith.  Furyk warms up nicely at this time of year. 2010 - 15th at the BMW and then 1st at the Tour Championship.  2011: 6th at the Deutsche and 22nd at the BMW.  This year : 13th at the Deutsche and 9th at the BMW.  I have left Furyk alone since his narrow failure at the US Open, but he makes my team again here.

Tournament rank 3: Luike Donald 20/1 general (22/1 Coral).  15th in FedEx cup standings

At the head of World golf, Rory McIlroy has steamed off in to the distance in terms of ranking, with Woods and Westwood also coming to the fore as the PGA FedEx Cup race nears its finale.  Luke Donald, however, has been somewhat left behind.  Last year, Donald finished 18th, 3rd, 4th and 3rd in the 4 play-off events. The year before, 15th, 2nd, 37th and 2nd.  10th, 26th and 28th in the first 3 events this year suggests his game is a little off. It is actually with the putter that Donald is surprisingly most off his game.  He was top 20 for total putts in all play-off events last year, but nothing better than 27th so far this year.  His scrambling was poor at the BMW too.  Donald has been 3rd and 2nd last 2 years here and on the surface, 20/1 in a 30 man field looks attractive.  However, there are too many players hitting better form for him to be taken here.

Tournament rank 4: Hunter Mahan 66/1 Various (70/1 SportingBet).  23rd in fedEx cup.

Barring injury, it was almost unthinkable that Hunter Mahan would have missed the Ryder Cup and found himself 70/1 and 23rd in the FedEx cup race.  However, the impressive winner of the Shell Houston and WGC Matchplay has totally fallen away in the remainder of the year.  In 15 events post Shell Houston, 1 top 10 betrays the quality of this golfer.  2nd last year and 5th in 2007, Mahan can clearly play this track.  We are getting over 15/1 a place,but I can leave him even at that price.  Mahan is not hitting his irons close and is not making birdies.  I can't back that he turns that around here.

Tournament rank 5: Adam Scott 18/1 general.  21st in FedEx cup.

Aside from 6th here last year, Scott won before the format change in 2006.  He is in good form too, with 6th and 7th in his last two events.  My big reservation with Scott is whether he will putt well enough to land the prize here.  Last year's top 5 were 1st, 10th, 3rd, 2nd and 8th in total putts.  Scott putted a lot better last week, but may be found just short come next Sunday..

Tournament rank 6: Tiger Woods 6/1 Coral, 11/2 in other places. 2nd in FedEx cup

9 top 10s in 17 events, including 3 wins, Tiger is back isn't he?  Well, nearly.  And, Rory has come along and swept him aside in recent weeks.  Tiger has won 3 times this year on courses where he has had proven success in the past.  He only ranks 6th this year due to not making it in 2010 and 2011.  His 4 results before that here? 2nd, 1st, 2nd, 2nd.  At a general 11/2, the place position just about covers the win part of the bet and many will think that is compelling enough to back each way - surely Woods will not be too far away.  Woods is scrambling and putting well, which will be useful here.  He is also striking his mid to long range irons beautifully when in position.  I just can't quite have him at such short odds right now.  Woods is in the pressure zone of knowing a win lands him the whole FedEx cup.  The top 5 will be under a lot of pressure and, while Woods has more winning knowledge than all others, he has been a little susceptible in the heat of battle this year when it comes to the big events.

Brief summaries for the rest of the field (apart from my other selections, who I need to justify)

Tournament rank 7: Zach Johnson, 33/1 general.  9th in FedEx cup.
Out of form recently, until a strong first three rounds last week.  2nd 2007 (Bentgrass) and 9th last year, plus Georgia affinity confirmed with his Masters win.  A pass for me, although the place terms hold some appeal.

Tournament rank T8: Nick Watney, 40/1 general.  3rd in FedEx cup.

A lot of pressure for the top 5 entering the event.  However, Watney has some interesting hidden claims here.  When Furyk won with -8 in 2010, Watney played the weekend in -10 to place 4th.  He can win this event if he hooks up.  Being blown away at the PGA aside, Watney has 9 straight top 45s, 7 of which are top 21 finishes.  He won two events ago and can be forgiven a bit of a mental snooze in the next two events. Watney likes Bermuda and his caddy reads the surfaces particularly well.  Watney is very tempting at the odds given.  I am going to play him at reduced stakes - the pressure of knowing it is all in his hands leaves me a little hesitant.

Tournament rank T8: Ernie Els, 50/1 general.  22nd in FedEx Cup.

6 events and nothing better than 26th since the Open, Els is a huge leap of faith.  7th 2010, 9th 2009 and 6th 2008 shows Els may choose here to improve.  Consider match bets where he may be 6/4 or worse depending on his opponent.

Tournament rank 10: Steve Stricker. 33/1 general.  13th in Fedex Cup.  

6th is Stricker's best finish here.  Recent form none too clever either, although he is finding greens better than most..  A pass for me - Watney's 40s and Furyk's 25s are eminently better value.

Tournament rank 11: Sergio Garcia, 28/1 available, 25s general.  12th in FedEx Cup..  

No appearances here since 2008, however 2nd that year and 4th the year before tells you Sergio likes this place.  Sergio won 3 starts ago on BermudaGrass in landing the Wyndham.  He also led the field for total putts at WGC Cadillac on Bermuda earlier this year.  Sergio is driving well and hitting greens better than most.  If he gets his putting groove back on Bermuda at a course where he has placed last two times he has played it, he should be a major player in this event.  At 12th in the FedEx cup, he may just land the whole thing with a win.  Importantly for Sergio, he may not realise how close he is to landing the FedEx cup until he walks off the course, as the permutations tend to switch often in this event. Sergio's temperament in strokeplay golf's biggest events is questionable, so he is backable from off the pace in the FedEx cup. I am going to have a reduced play on Sergio this week, who will hopefully be ready to dial in ahead of the Ryder Cup.

Tournament rank T12: Bo Van Petl, 35/1 available, 33/1 general.  19th in FedEx cup.

Bo always appeals because he almost nearly always plays better than his odds suggest.  However, he so often just misses even a place.  9th here last year and 10th last week.  I just overlook him here, due to the preference for Sergio/Watney/Furyk in this sort of price band.

Tournament rank T12: John Senden, 80/1 SkyBet, 661 various.  29th in FedEx cup

10th in 2009 is about all we have for Senden.  Poor result last week.  General indifferent putting means I can't back him here, even at such odds.

Tournament rank 14: Dustin Johnson, 16/1 general.  7th in FedEx cup.

3 poor finishes last 3 years here, but 3rd, 4th and 6th in his last 3 events.  Johnson will have his backers, but not for me at the price, given abject course form.  As Johnson has won in each of the last two years during the FedEx cup, pressure will have been high at East Lake.  It still is, as he sits 7th in the standings.  A swerve for me.

Tournament rank T15: Bubba Watson, 33/1 general.  11th in FedEx Cup

3 attempts, nothing better than 17th.  Led the field for scoring on Sunday in the BMW to rocket up to 12th overall.  Won in Georgia at the Masters this year too of course.  Improved irons and scrambling last time out.  Could surprise a few, but not the best midfielder to pick from for me.

Tournament rank T15: Justin Rose, 33/1 general.  24th in FedEx cup.

3 appearances, with only 11th back in 2007 as a best result.  Better form at the BMW than recent efforts.  Irons really back on song last week as he led the field in GIR.  However, putting stats remain pretty dire.  No better than 46th for strokes gained putting in 3 play-off events.  Avoid.

Tournament rank T17: Jason Dufner, 25/1 general.  10th in FedEx cup.

13th and 19th here in 2 previous events is OK.  2 good rounds out of 4 in the last 3 events.  If he puts it together, he contends again as he has for much of the season.  Dufner's first tour win (Zurich, this year) was on Bermuda and he was 2nd at halfway in the Masters, also at Georgia.  I can't back him this week, but he could get it done.

Tournament rank T17: Matt Kuchar,  50/1 general. 16th in Fed Ex cup. 

2 poor finishes here in the last 2 years and a very poor play-off sequence to date.  54th last week, despite 2nd in strokes gained putting and good scrambling stats.  Irons need to improve a lot for him to feature.

Tournament rank 19th: Ryan Moore, 50/1 general.  28th in fed ex cup.

9th 2010 in his only appearance - interesting.  Moore has finished 24th, 10th and 10th in the play-offs to date to make East Lake this week having been way off the pace coming in.  Good iron play, 4th in proximity to the hole last week and performing well on and around the green, Moore is tempting at the price.  Moore's 9th here in 2010 came off 3rd at the BMW, so can he can ride two hot rounds in the play-offs.  Prior to the play-offs, Moore has had 4 top 10s, 3 of which came in a run of 4 events.  I am going to take him to ride the momentum once more and feature,  at what are tasty odds for one of the very best form players coming in.

Tournament rank 20th: Brandt Snedeker, 401 general, 5th in FedEx cup

Big pressure on Snedeker this week, knowing a win means 11.4m US dollars.  16th and 29th in two tries here is not overly encouraging either.  Also, having placed 2nd and 6th in the first 2 play-off events, Snedeker produced 4 average to poor rounds at TPC Boston last time. give me Watney of the 40/1 shots instead please.

Tournament rank T21st: Carl Pettersson, 75/1 Stan James, 66/1 general.  17th in FedEx cup.  

21st in 2008 and 16th in 2006 here are the only indicators we have, although Pettersson is a better player now of course.  However, he arrives having done nothing since his fine PGA and subsequent Wyndham showing.  I am going to leave Pettersson, although he is close to being backed purely on his price.

Tournament rank T21st : Keegan Bradley, 40/1 general.  14th in FedEx cup.

A useful 11th in his maiden appearance last year, Bradley has been 1st (Bridgestone), 3rd (PGA defence) and 13th (Deutsche) in the last 5 events.  Useful form, although he had a poor BMW last time out.  Will need to putt a lot better than he did last time out to feature.

Tournament rank T21st : Webb Simpson, 45/1 available 40/1 general.  25th in FedEx cup.

Webb entered last season's Tour Championship 1st in the FedEx cup standings. Not so this time.  Webb's debut last year, perhaps understandably, was underwhelming.  Webb swapped good irons for good putting last time out.  If he can put it together, he may feature.  However, it is a leap of faith that 40/1 does not justify.

The rookies

Rory - Obvious favourite here.  Can he really win 3 straight, hold his FedEx lead and land a huge prize?  Maybe, but I can't take him at 5/1 given that and his debut here.  He has arguably the best chance, but enough arguments for me to want 8s.  

Lee Westwood - 16s and in good form.  8th in the race, arguably his biggest title - the FedEx cup - may well be landed if he were to win here.  I tend to look for Westwood when it is Bentgrass greens in the States.  Also, last time out, he hardly troubled McIlroy in meandering to T2nd with the equally languid Mickelson.  If he has a poor 1st round, I might just back him EW to come from off the pace and get in the mix, but I can't have him outright.

Louis Oosthuizen - 25s and with a great chance to win the whole thing if he prevails, winning is quite a proposition for the debutant.  Like Westwood, I struggle to trust Oosthuizen on Bermuda and, given all other factors, he is overlooked.

Robert Garrigus - 66s is too tight.  Garrigus did well to get here and is a streaky type, but I think too many of the World's top players will get between him and a place this week.

Rickie Fowler - 75/1 is available for Rickie in this 30 man field.  Sounds good on a purely price basis. However, 8 events coming in with only 1 top 30 (24th Barclays) makes him unbackable on debut.  

John Huh - In three of the last 4 events, Hiuh has had a very strong Friday and Sunday, spoiled by a fairly abject Thursday and Saturday.  Huh is dismissed at 100/1.  May be worth a second look if his 1st round is useful.

Scott Piercy - 100/1 and last to scrape in at 30th in the FedEx cup race, Piercy has lost his game during the play-offs.  the only bright spot was a good last round at the BMW last time out.  I can't back him this week. 

Good luck!

Dave (OneBet)

Golf tips - BMW Championship outright selections

BMW Championship Selections
1pt EW Louis Oosthuizen at 25/1 (Various)
2pt EW Jason Dufner at 25/1 (Various)
0.75pt EW Ryan Moore 1st round leader at 66/1 (Various)

Short weeks are not good fun when trying to pull these tips together..........

No point in writing a novel this week.  So, simply, we arrive at a course with precious little course form to go on.  The course is plenty long enough, but the interesting aspect for me is the relatively small greens here.  The rough does not seem to be the most penal, but ball strikers who can dial in with their approach shots are greatly desired this week.  Scrambling will be more of a factor this week, as players will be hitting plenty of long irons in to small targets and greens will inevitably be missed.

So, to my thoughts/selections

Rory is rejected for this reason.  Rory's last 5 wins have been followed by 103rd, 51st, 3rd, 35th and 26th after round 1 of the following tournament   3rd was in Dubai, an event he had to win to have a chance of catching Luke Donald in the race - he eventually finished 11th, his first non-top 6 in 5 events.  So, I personally am going to be brave and lay Rory on the exchanges and hope he meanders again on Thursday.  I also think the high drama of watching anxiously as Louis Oosthuizen just missed his putt to force a play-off may leave him slightly flat coming in here.  Finally, good scrambling and great putting stats last week compensated for a pretty average approach game (37th in GIR, 30th in proximity to the hole).  I am not convinced he will get away with less than perfect irons this week, although his high, long and towering irons will be well suited to this challenge if he is dialled in.

Tiger is interesting, because his form last week ticks boxes for my photo fit golfer this week.  4th in driving distance and a useful enough 20th in accuracy, 2nd in greens, 12th in strokes gained putting and 2nd in scrambling is highly compelling stuff from Tiger.  Tiger was also 19th in proximity to the hole last week, although approaches over 200 yards (62nd) and over 100 yards (28th) is not ideal for the lengthy Crooked Stick this week.  Tiger has gone toe to toe with Rory recently at the PGA and here and Rory has won both times.  However, Tiger was closing in last time out rather than seeing Rory waltz off in to the distance.  I am really struggling to leave Tiger alone, but just will, because I think the price is probably about fair.  My slight nagging doubt is that he was heavily involved in the late Monday finish and has not yet had two really dialled in weeks with his approach game all year.  After a top 10 GIR performance, he has been no better than 23rd the following week in that stat.  I just leave him here.

Tiger and Rory, when paired together at the Barclays, failed to really sparkle.  Reason if you are wavering to   exercise caution I feel.

Jason Dufner did not putt well enough to win last week and then did not avoid double and triple bogeys enough over the weekend to threaten a place (92nd in bogey avoidance last week).  But..........he was 5th in proximity to the hole, 5th in approaches over 200 yards and 11th in greens hit as well as 7th in scrambling.  So, hidden in among the headline stats is a player who should find he can fire at Crooked Stick.  Dufner is holding steady at 25s and is now joint 6th favourite.  It seems the market has lost faith in Dufner more than I have.  Sorry folks, but he makes my team again.

I have ignored my system for Rory and it is telling me that if not Rory, I should back Oosthuizen.  There is still some 25s out there and Louis was sensational approaching the green and in putting.  Louis showed when winning in Malaysia straight after the Masters that he can dust himself down and perform the following week.  Oosthuizen is a spells players, who gets hot for a time before then gently ebbing away from the sharp end.  So, I am going to back that the run continues.  In a 70 man field, several of whom will have a pressure to make the Tour Championship final event when it comes to the final round, Louis will be freer than most to just go for the prize.  Let's play him here.

My final play this week is on Ryan Moore.  In 2010, Moore dialled in for the FedExCup climax, lying 2nd after day 1 of this event and finishing 3rd, before following up with 9th at East Lake.  In 2011, Moore was 16th in this event, which was not quite enough to qualify for East Lake.  Moore sits 35th in the FedEx cup race and needs to follow up his strong 10th last week with another good display to make East Lake.  11th in GIR last week and 3rd in proximity to the hole, Moore's success or otherwise will depend on whether his scrambling can improve this week.  80/1 is a good price to find out whether he does or not.  My final question is whether outright or 1st round leader is the best way to go.  Since start 2010, he has had 8 top 5s.  In the same period 10 times top 5 after round 1, one of which (Well Fargo this year) was as 1st round leader.  Crooked Stick may be a little long for Moore over 4 days I fancy.  I am going to play him 1st round leader only here.

Regards

Dave (OneBet)

Golf tips - Deutsche Bank Championship Outright selections

Outright selections 
2pts EW Luke Donald at 18/1 (victor Chandler)
1.5pts EW Jason Dufner at 20/1 (Various)
1pt EW Geoff Ogilvy at 50/1 (Various)
1pt EW Jason Day at 50/1 (Various)

Hi all

This started as my tournament form guide and has morphed in to my formal preview for the event after it grew out of all proportion.  The claims of the leading protagonists on a course form basis are compelling enough for me to go with it.  I have done my usual system work and no big outsiders are showing up strongly enough this week.  So, here it is.  Enjoy (make a nice hot drink and get comfortable before starting)

The usual course/tournament form analysis below.

My course analysis goes back to 2003 and I analyse in the following way:

• Tournament experience, with a maximum 8 points if a player has played 6 or more times
• Tournament history, with a maximum 10 points if a player has ever won the event, with further increments down to down to 2 points for any top 25.  
• Tournament form in 2012, 2011 and 2010, with up to 4 points available for each year.  
• Course experience points - As per tournament form, but for the specific course in use.  In reality, this is not a factor here as TPC Boston has been the host since this event first played in 2003.  Although the tournament has only been in its current guise since 2007, TPC Boston's permanent position as tournament host makes it worthwhile going back to 2003 for indicators.

As we are looking at course form in years gone by, not all in the field make the list due to 2012 being their debut year. 

So, looking purely at course and history form, with a ranking system that aims to differentiate between players who do consistently well and those who don't (either one hit wonders or those consistent performers who do not really challenge), we get the following results, with further analysis below the table:

First, a general comment.  This event is stacked with players who have thrived over the years on this course. TPC Boston seems to reward classy players, who can get it done around the greens.  No surprise then to see the likes of Stricker, Snedeker, Ogilvy and Donald near the top given this.

So to the individual players.  Steve Stricker is ranked 1 here, due to an excellent overall record.  Before a surprisingly average 42nd last year, Stricker had finished 9th, 1st, 13th 9th and 7th in the 5 years prior; 4 of those five years (2007-2010) were results gained in the current play-offs format too, of course.  Stricker arrives here in good form too.  I spent some time talking about his chances last week, before a 54th placed finish somewhat ended the momentum.  I am not overly concerned by that finish.  It was a tough course and a number of great putters had a hard time on the greens over the weekend in particular.  Stricker was 4th in approaches from under 100 yards, 15th in proximity to the hole and 12th in approaches from over 200 yards.  Clearly, he is still striking the ball very nicely.  It was actually in his around the green game that he struggled.  That should not remain for long and the man with a great record around here should go well again.  Motivation should not be a factor either.  Stricker sits 10th in the Ryder cup standings and will want to try and make a definite statement to DLIII ahead of his wildcard picks being made.  A 2nd indifferent week will be very bad timing for Stricker, although he must have a great chance of inclusion even if this does happen.  I just can leave him out again this week.  Again, I am a little nervous, but I want to see more than 28/1 for a player I do not think has great win claims right now.

Perhaps (definitely) surprisingly, Charley Hoffman ranks 2nd.  His win in 2010 is an obvious reason he ranks well, but Hoffman has been in the top 33 in each of the last 4 years showing he can play the course well.  I do not think that he merits the 2nd ranking here, especially when you consider the merits of some of the guys below.  My system ranks are based upon set criteria, which sometimes throws out oddities such as this.  Before I go on though, let's look to what extent I think Hoffman might shock the field and challenge again this year.  I don't.  4 MCs coming in to this event is hardly a ringing endorsement of his chances.  In finishing 31st when defending last year, Hoffman had placed 10th at the Barclays and 37th and 25th in two of the previous 4 events. In winning in 2010, Hoffman's previous 8 events read 25-27-41-7-4-83-10-27.  He is not anywhere near that form and I do not see a challenge here.  Hoffman has really been struggling with the flatstick, ranking 94th or worse in his last 4 events for putts per round.  This tournament demands that you putt well and, despite some decent tee to green stats for accuracy (Barclays aside) recently, I feel he has far too much to find.

OK, back to the big boys.  1st and 2nd in the first two years of this event (2003 and 2004, in the old format) and 5th and 8th last two years, Adam Scott has a great chance of going well again here.  I have a slight mental block in trusting Adam Scott, but I am becoming less ardent about it.  In 13 events this year, Scott has 8 top 15 finishes, but only 2 top 5s.  One of those should have been a British Open win of course and his form has been only OK since.  My problem with Scott is that he is always liable to have a mental snooze for a day or two in an event and that is often costly in a top class field.  Obviously, Scott was outstanding for 68 holes at Lytham, but in every event this year he has posted a score that has been the 44th or worse best round in the field on one of the 4 days.  It is tough to win when you do that.  There in a nutshell is my issue.  In 2010, Scott meandered on days 1 and 2, but then produced a great weekend to place.  Last year, Scott started well and then really fell away in finishing 8th.  There is no doubt he can, but there is plenty of evidence that he will not.  Scott is contracting in the market and I have to leave him at prices of around 25s this week.

Geoff Ogilvy is very interesting.  He is generally 50s, but that will probably not last as people realise his record here.  Since this event gained an increased importance in 2007 and became a play-off event Ogilvy has finished (2007 first) 6-72-7-2-25.  That is compelling form.  Ogilvy is simmering in current form too and threatening to start performing again right at the head of tournaments.  Ogilvy has 10 top 30s in 13 events, but nothing better than 9th.  If you see a top 20 market and have nothing to do with the wheelbarrow of cash sat outside your house, you could do worse.  Slightly more practically, the Spreadex finishing position market certainly is worthy of consideration when available.  I think the reason Ogilvy is not quite there results wise is because his putting is not where he would like it at the moment.  38th in strokes gained putting last week was decent, however, as was 20th in birdie or better.  Ogilvy could just score big this week.  I think 50s is value.

Jason Day frustrated me last week.  We backed him at 80/1 and he showed me that I wasn't crazy to do so.  After meandering at +2, Day rallied to finish -1 after day 1 and improved to -2 at halfway, only 5 from the lead.  His tournament ended on day 3 with something of a horror round,but he rallied to produce the best round of the day on Sunday.  The omens remain good, but can we play Day again here now he is 50s?  Day has played here 4 times, finishing 50th, 19th, 2nd and 3rd.  Clearly he has a strong affinity with the course.  We are again on Bentgrass this week, which is a tick in the box for Day too.  Day has not had as good a year this year, but it is a sign of how good a player he is that he has 4 top 10s to date in 2012.  Where I believe Day will feel confident this week is that he can get away with less than stellar driving accuracy a lot more this week than he did last.  Last week, 95th in driving accuracy played a big part in 97th GIR.  However, Day was 15th in greens hit at the Deutsche last year despite only sitting 82nd in DA.  What did seem to be in order last week was Day's putting, so if he can "get away" with a couple of less than perfect drives, he may well feature here. Day was 9th in birdie or better last week and 3rd in approaches over 100 yards.  So, he is striking his irons well and rolling the putts nicely too.  OK, the Aussie charge continues.  He makes my team.

Tiger Woods in 7 appearances has a 1st, two 2nds, 7th and 11th twice.  But, Tiger is a tough player to get right at the moment.  There is much talk of his weekend deceleration and last week is the latest in a lengthening line of such examples.  My main problem with Woods is linked to that.  Since his full field comeback win at the Arnold Palmer in March, Woods has had 6 bad weekends.  The tournaments?  The Masters, The Players, The US Open, The British Open, The PGA and the Barclays.  Apart from WGC Bridgestone, where Woods came from deep to make the top 10, he has failed in the 6 biggest events he has played in since April over the weekend.  I have two other issues also.  First, Tiger's stats were just OK last week.  Unlike Jason Day, there is no feeling that he just needs a tweak or a more benevolent course.  Woods struggled with the putter, was average off the tee, was average scrambling and just did not give any confidence that he can win this week.  He seems to be striking his irons pretty well, but still not overly compelling.  Finally, I am not sure how his health is, given the tweaked back and pain experienced last week.  Had this not been a key play-offs event, I think he may have pulled out by now.  He may yet still.  I have to swerve Woods this week, but he can win if his ball is more readily in play as it should be.

Thoughts now on the rest of the top 10 ranked players.  Phil is next, but, if you didn't believe last week at Bethpage Black, there is probably not enough reason to believe here, despite the 2007 win and 10th last year.  Phil's odds have held too, because last week was by no means awful.  I can't have him this week, although the two good rounds from 4 he did shoot last week suggests a game that may be coming around.

Brandt Snedeker has been 3rd and 5th last 2 years and is in very good form.  After four average events coming in, Snedeker went 3rd at the Barclays and 3rd here last year.  Well only 3 average events coming in this year, with 2nd at the Barclays is a nice omen ahead of this event.  4th in strokes gained putting last week and 20th in birdie or better, Snedeker really has a good chance to feature here.  The question is whether I can have him at 28/1.  I think I am just going to leave him.

Jason Dufner has had a week off, the week after I had a week off backing him in a tournament.  OK, I have not been quite that ardent about it, but I always think hard about whether to have Dufner in my team.  Dufner is this year's Webb Simpson for me in many ways, having delivered big from relative obscurity prior.  Dufner was 2nd in 2009 here and followed up with 18th and 31st last 2 years also.  After giving some guys a headstart in the FedEx cup race last week, Dufner has some catching up to do.  The venue at which Webb did it last year has some nice symmetry for me given the similarities in the seasons of both.  Last year, Dufner was 20th in putts per round here having been 88th and 95th in the two events prior.  So, 47th in putts last time out worries me less than 9th and 4th before that encourages me.  The difference is his ballstriking, which has moved from good to sensational in 2012.  I think he has a glorious chance this week as long as he kept his eye on the practice side of things in the week off.  Dufner's Zurich classic maiden win came after a week off, so I am sure he can keep the momentum rolling here.

Vijay is playing pretty well and has a great past record here.  However, I can't trust his weekends any more. At 80s and generally 70s and lower, he has to be overlooked.  1st in 04 and 08 and 2nd in 06 tells you of his past prowess.  Good luck if you are on him.

Finally, Luke Donald.  Luke has been 2nd and 3rd last two years.  And, on a course that tends to favour those with a stellar short game, it is no surprise at all to see.  With par 5s that Donald can look at in 2 blows and an impeccable wedge game when he can't, Donald is very likely to keep the scoreboard ticking over.  After last year's double money list win, it has been fairly quiet this year for him and he has been vocal about his own failure in majors.  3 top 10 finishes in 5 events and nothing worse than 32nd in that time tells you his game is in shape.  I suspect he will be keen to again try and silence the doubters with a strong play-offs.  He played well last week and should challenge again this.  A note of caution: Donald's 3rd rounds have been poor this year on the whole.  If he gets his Saturday right, he will be very close in this event I feel.  A note of optimism: Since the Deutsche in 2010, Luke Donald has had 29 further top 10s in strokeplay events.  If he fails to get a top 10 this week, it will be the first time he has started a top 10 streak and failed to follow it up with another since then (aside from the season ending European Tour event in Abu Dhabi).  That is my killer stat for the week - Luke Donald is in my team too.

I started off trying to do my usual tournament form preview, but I feel I have written enough and picked enough golfers to consider my selections complete.  Good luck to you all this week

Regards

Dave

Golf Tips - British Open Tournament Form Guide

Outright selections
2pts EW Lee Westwood at 16/1 (Various, but take Paddy Power's 7 places)
2pts win Retief Goosen at 180 (Betfair only, with a view to trade)


Already advised 1pt EW Raphael Jacquelin at 150/1 (Paddy Power, 7 places)


British Open outright selections http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/golf-tips-british-open-outright_17.html 
British Open special bets http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/golf-tips-british-open-special-bets.html
Golf tips - British Open Form guide (table only) http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/golf-tips-british-open-form-guide-table.html


Hi all


As usual, my tournament form analysis below.


My course analysis goes back to 2001 and I analyse in the following way:

• Tournament experience, with a maximum 8 points if a player has played 6 or more times
• Tournament history, with a maximum 10 points if a player has ever won the event, with further increments down to down to 2 points for any top 25.  
• Tournament form in 2012, 2011 and 2010, with up to 4 points available for each year.  
• Course experience points - I am not using this metric this week as, although Lytham was used in 2001, it is too far back to truly differentiate the field here for this analysis, given that the number of players having played the course 11 years ago is so low.  In my outright preview, I will of course consider any previous Lytham experience in making my final selections.  

As we are looking at tournament form in years gone by, not all in the field make the list due to 2012 being their debut year. 

So, looking purely at tournament histor, with a ranking system that aims to differentiate between players who do consistently well and those who don't (either one hit wonders or those consistent performers who do not really challenge), we get the following results, with further analysis below the table:

Stewart Cink heads my rankings here, due to a really consistent British Open record, climaxed by a win in 2009. Few players can match Cink's record of 6 top 34 finishes in 11 years, with the win in 2009 and 6th place in 2007 the highlights.  Cink is as big as 225/1 with Bet365, which holds some appeal given his form here.  Cink also finished a useful 30th at Lytham in 2001, so has some course form.  Against him is form coming in to the event, but the same can be said of him in 2009, when he won the Open having done nothing on tour for the previous 4 months.  Cink is not quite the force he was on the PGA Tour right now, but this is a dark horse pick I could not put you off at the price.

Darren Clarke is 2nd in my ranks for very obvious reasons.  The defending champion this year, Clarke has played pretty horribly since winning the Claret Jug in 2011.  Following that win, Clarke was given the most laughable major starting odds I have ever and probably will ever see : 66/1 for the PGA last year.  Since then, his form has prompted a dose of realism from layers and Clarke is a general 150/1 in the format of golf he loves most this week.  Open winners have a strong trend of having won earlier in the same year, which was true also of Clarke, who was in much better shape in 2011 coming in.  Clarke however, recently hinted in the Irish Open that he may be ready to give punters at least early excitement in his defence of the title.  In the last 11 years, Clarke's other headline result is a 3rd place.............here at Lytham in 2001.  Clarke also played Lytham in 1996, finishing T11.  I find it difficult to match up his form with any realistic hope of winning, but Clarke will have his backers this week.  I am not going get to misty eyed and sentimental about Clarke here - between 1st in 2011 and 3rd in 2001, Clarke failed to crack the top 10.  He is a swerve for me.

Tied 2nd in my ranks with Clarke is Lee Westwood.  Westwood's MC last year was a surprise, but do not let that anomaly cloud his credentials to contend here.  2nd in 2010 and 3rd in 2009 (plus a 4th in 2004) allied to strong major finishes everywhere else in recent years, Westwood is perhaps the best person to trust to contend this week.  The question is, can he get over the line and win the event.  It is a tough question, although I believe Westwood's total driving will again set him up well here versus the great majority of the field.  I tipped Westwood up win only in the US Open in what was another event with a high premium on keeping the ball in play and Westwood finished well, but not quite well enough.  If Westwood can start well (as he did in 2009 and 2010), he is an extremely strong place contender and may just be the last man standing.  I want him onside again this week.

Retief Goosen is a model of consistency in this event and i believe 110/1 and 7 places from Paddy Power will attract a steady stream of bets as punters do their homework...........or read this.  Goosen missed lat year, but in 10 straight years prior, Goosen averaged a 12th placed finish, which is stunning consistency around a variety of links courses.  This is Goosen's run in those 10 years, Lytham 2001 first: 13th, 8th, 10th, 7th, 5th, 14th, 23rd, 32nd, 5th, 6th.  Make no mistake, Goosen is actually likely to keep punters interested come the final day.  Goosen has shot nothing worse than 76 in his last 40 rounds, which is tremendous consistency.  Although weather may be a factor, I am going to play that Goosen's consistency gives us a run this week.  There is currently strong liquidity for Goosen at 180 on Betfair and that is the advised play for me here.  I think there is every chance that Goosen is hovering somewhere within 5 shots of the summit come the weekend, which could yield a strong opportunity to trade.  goosen has a 5th, 10th and 23rd in his last 5 starts too, to show that his recent form stands up pretty well (his other two events were MCs).  The 5th was in the Volvo Matchplay in Spain (where he over-performed versus expectation).  His 10th was at the super-tough US Open and his 23rd at the tough Open De France.  Goosen then has served warning that he is ready to again contend where the brief is for players that can grind and plot their way around the course.  There are few better.  I will put some specials up later in the week, but the 10/1 with 3 places for top South African by BlueSq is one of the best bets I have seen in a long time.  Sure, there are some great South Africans out there, but if Goosen does what he does every time he tees it up in this event, he is almost certain to at least place.  

Sergio ties Goosen in my ranks here, due to 7 top 10s in 11 starts, which includes 9th at Lytham in 2001.  I have a nagging doubt re Sergio which is on top of his obvious nearly man tag down the years.  When not far from the lead at the Masters this year, Garcia said he was not able to win a major at that point in time (I can't remember the exact quote, but it was that order of magnitude).  That is not the mentality you want to have when trying to beat the World's best.  However, the British Open is different as often it is a case of last man standing rather than  being the guy who storms through to victory.  Garcia's last win at the end of last year was at Valderrama, which reaffirms that he can still play tough tracks extremely well.  His 9th last year in the Open was yet another reminder that his flair and creativity, allied to an impeccable short game, are traits that make him a likely contender again.  Arguably the most popular potential winner from outside the British Isles, Garcia has strong claims this week and a strong week from him would be a contending week.  My concern is Garcia's price.  He is no better than 35/1 with layers offering place positions.  I am genuinely teetering over whether Garcia makes my team and a forecast closer to the time which favours his early/late tee slot in the first two rounds may sway me.  The other factor that nags at me is his opening grouping with Rose and Woods.  Garcia's famous battle with Woods at the Masters is over a decade ago now.  I simply do not know how he will react if Woods starts well in particular.  I will probably reluctantly leave him out in the final reckoning, but it is far from an easy call.

Other notable performers:

Romero - Played 4 times, finishing 8th, 3rd (should have won), 32nd and 13th

Ben Curtis - 1st 2003, 8th 2007, 7th 2008.  Although form not as strong as earlier this year, he is a 2012 winner and may just go well here.

Davis Love III - 21st Lytham 2001, 14th 2002, 4th 2003, 5th 2004, 9th last year.

Dustin Johnson - 14th, 2nd last two years.  55/1 will not last if you are keen

Ernie Els - 8 top 8 finishes between 2001 and 2009, including a win in 2002 and 3rd here in 2001

Jim Furyk - 4th 06, 12th 07, 5th 08

Luke Donald - 5th 09, 11th 10

Martin Kaymer - 7th 2010, 12th 2011.  Hinting at form last week.

Padraig Harrington - 1,1 2007 and 2008.  Very strong and consistent form of late

Phil Mickelson - 3rd 2004, 2nd 2011 and 30th here in 2001.  Nice tune up last week

Raphael Jacquelin - 8th 2011 and 13th here in 2001.  Tip already advised

Richard Green - 4th 2007 and 16th 2011.  Finally, some form found coming in to this week.

Rickie Fowler - played 2, 14th and 5th.  Big threat.  

Rory McIlroy - 3rd, 25th last two years

Steve Stricker - 8th 07, 7th 08, 12th 11.  

Thomas Bjorn - 8th 2002, 2nd 2003, 4th last year.  MC here in 2001.  Form a little indifferent, but this is the Open........

Tiger - 4th 03, 9th 04, 1st 05, 1st 06 . Hasn't worked out to win when really tough yet at this event and for me not a value price to do so this year.

Regards

Dave (OneBet)

Golf tips - John Deere Classic Tournament Form Guide

Outright selections 
1.5pts EW Jonathan Byrd at 28/1 (Various)
1.25pts EW John Senden at 40/1 (Various)


John Deere Classic Outright Selections http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/golf-tips-john-deere-classic-outright.html
John Deere Classic Player Form Guide http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/golf-tips-john-deere-classic-player.html


Hi all

As usual, my course form analysis below.

My course analysis goes back to 2001 and I analyse in the following way:

• Tournament experience, with a maximum 8 points if a player has played 6 or more times
• Tournament history, with a maximum 10 points if a player has ever won the event, with further increments down to down to 2 points for any top 25.  
• Tournament form in 2012, 2011 and 2010, with up to 4 points available for each year.  
• Course experience points - As per tournament form, but for the specific course in use.  In reality, this is not a factor here as TPC Deere Run has been the host for the duration of my analysis

As we are looking at course form in years gone by, not all in the field make the list due to 2012 being their debut year. 

So, looking purely at course and history form, with a ranking system that aims to differentiate between players who do consistently well and those who don't (either one hit wonders or those consistent performers who do not really challenge), we get the following results, with further analysis below the table:

Steve Stricker - I am not sure there is much point in saying too much about Steve Stricker's tournament form for this event.  Stricker has won the last 3 editions of this event of course.  Leading the tour for proximity to the hole this year and having won his opening event of the season, Stricker seems well set to go well again here.  In the last 3 years, Sticker has hit 10 of 12 rounds in the 60s, including 61 and 64 in 2009, 60 and 62 in 2010 and 64 and 63 in 2011.  So, do we have our winner elect again in Stricker?  The answer is maybe.  The answer of whether he is value at 7s is also a difficult one to answer strongly in the positive.  Whilst Stricker's stellar wedge game will always give him chances on this course, I question how well he is putting right now.  

In regulation events last year, Stricker ranked 57th, 6th 23rd, 23rd, 25th and 7th for total putts in the events leading up to this one.  This year, only twice has he been in the top 30 for putts since the opening week of the season.  Stricker averaged 23.5 in total putts last year before this event.  This year, he averages 47.  Is he, therefore, hitting more greens and hence having less one putts?  Not really.  Average 39th GIR before last year's event versus 51st this year again tells us Stricker is a little off his game.  Also, Stricker finished the year 3rd in adjusted scoring last year and sits 30th this year, despite the jump forward last week.  A somewhat lengthy analysis of Stricker, but hopefully I have explained why I have to leave him this week.  10/1 = must back.  7/1 = I will take my chances.

Zach Johnson, loves playing here on what is a home game for him.  After 7 tries with nothing better than 20th, Johnson has been 2nd, 21st and 3rd in the last 3 years.  He has also shown great form this year, with a run of 2nd (Heritage), 69th (Wells Fargo), 2nd (the Players) and 1st (Crowne Plaza) the clear highlight.  Since then, however, Johnson has lost his way a little.  With a MC, 41st and 64th in the last 3 events. Last year's 3rd was the culmination of a 4 event progression from 32nd down to 3rd, so clearly he arrived in better shape.  Johnson was 34th in driving accuracy and 5th in greens hit last year at the Travellers and went on to place here.  This year, 48th accuracy and 62nd in greens suggest all is not so well this time around.  I can avoid Johnson here.

Charles Howell III is a very solid player here, with 5th, 39th and 23rd in the last 3 years adding to a distant 22nd and 25th.  So, does he have it in him to go better?  I don't think so.  Howell is having a pretty average year.  Usually so consistent, Howell's 6 top 10s in 2010 and 2011 eclipse his solitary top 10 this year (2nd in Howell's first event at the Sony Open).  With nothing better than 27th in the last 8 events and pretty abject driving accuracy, greens hit and putting stats, he is a very poor value option for me at 50/1 this week.

Matt Jones will surprise many...........including me.  Jones has placed in 2 of the last 3 years and 175/1 odds requires a second glance.  However, Jones' form is dire this season.  Jones has missed the cut by a distance in each of the last 4 events.  Despite great odds, I can not have him this week, especially as his 5th place finish was preceded by a decent spell of form.

John Senden ranks T5th in my rankings and I like his credentials here.  Senden ranks well due to 12th last time here in 2010 adding to a win here in 2006.  Senden's form line has a lot of similarities with the previous 2 years.  In 2010, Senden in 10 events failed to break the top 30 before finishing 12th here.  Last year, after an admittedly stronger first half of the year, Senden went on a run of 12 top 30 finishes in 13 events from the US Open to the end of the season.  This year, Senden's form dipped a little in the weeks leading up to the US Open before finishing a fine 10th at Olympic.  It feels distinctly possible that Senden performs well this week.  28th in approaches up to 100 yards to confirm his wedge play credentials, 12th in birdie or better, 5th in greens hit and 30th in driving accuracy, Senden looks very nicely set to contend this week and makes my team.

In 6 events here, Tim Petrovic has 5 top 30s, with the highlight a 5th in 2009.  However, Petrovic is in a pretty dark place this year, with only a 16th at the Mayakoba a hint that he can make his tour card.  The positive is a much improved 38th last time out at the Greenbrier, but, even at 200/1 this man is tough to back this week.  Despite putting well and driving straight last week, I can not have him on side.  Petrovic is not making enough birdies this year and is not dialled in from within 100 yards.  Greens hit is not critical here as players fire more readily for the pins, but any man who is 21st in accuracy but 144th in greens in the preceding event can not be trusted.  Expect Petrovic to make far too money bogeys to have a chance this week.

Finally, Jonathan Byrd.  Suffering with his health a little in the last few events, Byrd continues to have a fine year on tour.  And here, at the scene of a 2nd place finish in 2003 and 1st in 2007, Byrd surely will feel he can go close this week.  6th, 9th, 10th, 12th and 22nd in the last 6 events tells you that Byrd is in fine form.  6th in my bentgrass ranks for the last two years, 5th for my tournament rank here and 24th for the year in strokes gained putting, we can expect a big week from Byrd.  I can not find a significant weakness here in terms of what I expect a contending golfer to display as Byrd is a strong wedge player, in the top 50 for birdies and scoring average adjusted.  I like his chances this week, with my only niggle being that he might throw in a round close to par, which could be pivotal here.  I would like 33s, but will take 28s, especially with the misgivings I have regarding Stricker and Zach at the head of the field

Regards

Dave (OneBet)

Golf tips - AT&T National outright selections

Outright selections
1.5pts EW Dustin Johnson at 16/1 (various)
1pt EW Jeff OVerton at 66/1 (Coral)
1pt EW Marc Leishman at 70/1 (various)
1pt EW Robert Garrigus at 66/1 (Ladbrokes)


AT&T National Tournament form guide http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/06/golf-tips-at-national-tournament-form.html
AT&T National Player form guide http://onebettips.blogspot.nl/2012/06/golf-tips-at-national-player-form-guide.html


Course considerations
Backers need to be cautious in looking looking too hard at recent form guides for this event. First, the history of the event only dates back to 2007, meaning it is hard to derive any players with irresistible tournament form. In addition to this, we are back at Congressional this week for the first time since 2009. Therefore, our only true barometer of tournament and course affinity can be derived between 2007 and 2009.

Finally, this course is not the same as that used in 2009. After Tiger won here in 2009, the course was prepared for the 2011 U.S. Open that was won by Rory McIlroy, who rewrote 16 records on his way to victory.

Arguably the most significant change ahead of the U.S. Open was the change of all greens from Poa Annua to Bentgrass, which at least in theory made the Open more open in the literal sense of the word. Holes have also been extended and tee positions adjusted. However, the layout has reverted to a par 70 having played as a par 71 last year. The 6th hole is again a par 4 this year, so the basic brief on the course is similar from tee to green to previous AT&T Nationals here.

In winning last year, McIlroy destroyed the field in 2 headline categories in my view. First, he hit a staggering 86% of greens, a full 7% more than anybody else. Secondly, he dominated the par 4s. McIlroy led the field for most birdies with 19, 13 of which were on par 4s. On a course with 12 par 4s, 1 of the par 5s playing over 600 yards and extremely difficult par 3s, that fits the bill here. His 1 birdie on the par 3s came in round 4 and was truly exquisite.....OK, enough reverie and on with finding the winner.

Another feature of the course is the graduated rough, which is relatively lenient on those erring slightly, but brutal to those wild off the tee. Recent US Opens have displayed this trait and long hitters rather than straight hitters have dominated near the head of the leaderboard in most years (this year is an exception). A look at last year's leaderboard shows the likes of McIlroy, Day and Garrigus at the head of the field. All are long and all are much happier when there is a little more room off the tee.

In addition to graduated rough, the fairways are tree-lined here. Whilst being long is a desired attribute, players must display control in their aggression too.

As shown in my tournament form guide, players such as Glover, Choi, Furyk, Mahan and Woods all performed strongly at this tournament/course between 2007 and 2009. However, all bar Woods (did not play) failed to really impress from that group last year.

The only other guide we have is the Booz Allen Classic, played here in 2005. Garcia won that event, with a strong Australian contingent among those following him home.

My photo fit player this week is one whose total driving is strong, but with bias towards being a longer hitter more than a straight one. An ability to hit high controlled approaches also will be rewarded here on hard to hit greens - the soft conditions of 2011 which made holding the green so much easier are gone. Finally, scrambling will be key for those missing greens. Not missing many greens is the headline stat for me this week though. Finally, I want good players of par 4s in particular, with putting a nice to have, particularly if you can hole out regularly when missing the green and chipping up.  Expect this week to be more of a US Open test than it was when the actual US Open was held here last year.  Congressional has a point to prove.

My selections
Tiger Woods heads the betting here and that is undoubtedly correct. A winner at Memorial for his 2nd tour success of the year, writers were scrabbling to proclaim the Messiah had returned when he sat T1 at halfway in the US Open. However, Woods really fell away, finally finishing 21st. I do not really subscribe to the theory that he is now PGA Tour ready but not yet major ready. I question whether anybody is more ready than Woods in World golf, despite recent problems. houThere is no such thing as a major ready golfer out there, which is why we keep getting different winners.

My doubt about Tiger is actually the way he copes and the way his swing is standing up to scrutiny when conditions are at their toughest for him. Woods looked ill at ease on the tight fairways of Sawgrass and never got anywhere near the leaders. His biggest problem at the US Open last time out was the first 6 holes. Of course, they are arguably the toughest opening 6 holes on World Golf.  However, on both days his game imploded and he will be tested again here.  I believe Woods is still trying to find ultimate confidence in his game.  Woods started round 3 of the Open with a definite strategy to not play driver from the tee.  However, after a bad start, out it came again.  There is something not right enough to be able to leave narrowing quotes 11/2 and lower alone.

Mahan and Furyk are so very close to making my team, but I can't have either of them at the prices.  both have great course form here when the AT&T was held between 2007-2009 and as per my tournament form guide.  However, both missed the cut on the softer and theoretically benign course last year.  I accept the possibility that come late Sunday, I am left cursing the fact I didn't get these guys onside, but I will still be maintaining that as a value shot, I was right to leave them.  Despite Furyk's great form, I just think he will fall short in a similar way to the Players - played well, finished 25th.

Dustin Johnson really showed up at the Fedex St Jude and genuinely surprised me by winning in his 2nd start back from injury.  I am struggling with the missed cut at the US Open, but not enough to omit him here.  the reason I am not put off enough is that Olympic Club is about as bad as it gets for Johnson.  Tight, demanding accuracy very much over distance and hugely punishing for those errant, Johnson was never going to have it his own way.  As it was, he only missed the cut by a stroke.  Had he made the cut and finished OK, we might have seen him at 12s here.  Johnson finished 23rd here last year in the US Open, but only after a pretty dreadful start.  That was a pretty impressive first showing at the course.  In his win at the St Jude, Johnson was 30th in driving distance (expected) and 33 rd in accuracy (noteworthy), with 4th in greens and 40th in putts per round completing a really consistent week leading to an impressive victory.  I also like the fact that in finishing 6th at the Memorial, Johnson was 6th for putts on the Bentgrass greens there.  In short, the elements are there for Johnson and he could really go to town on this course, if he gets himself set early.

Jeff Overton is next in my squad.  After the galling loss that Brian Davis suffered, I am hesitant about putting another multi-event bridesmaid in to my team here.  However, Overton played Aronimink last two years in this event, finishing 3rd both times.  Prior to that, he was 9th at Congressional.  Although only 13th and 38th in his last two events, Overton had 3 good rounds out of 4 in each and so clearly is close to a contending performance.  Overton is putting well and driving well too.  The question is whether he can dial in well enough with his irons to contend.  At 33rd in scrambling, 34th in bogey avoidance and 54th in par 4 scoring, I think 66/1 is enough for me to find out this week.

I am really struggling with the concept af adding further players here, to be honest.  Ryan Palmer headed up my recent form guide, with 3 very strong top 10 finishes in his last 3 events.  The bookies have him as an ever narrowing 6th favourite at time of writing, versus 4th in my system ranks.  Long off the tee and strong in par 4 performance and bentgrass positive both generally and of late, Palmer makes a lot of sense.  My concern is that his driving accuracy stats are borderline acceptable here.  Whilst certainly long enough, I am not sure a record of not being in the top 50 for driving accuracy in your last 20 events is good enough.  Also, 73 and 91st in greens hit in the last two regulation events fails to inspire.  I am going out on a limb here and bucking the massive gamble by anybody and everybody - Ryan Palmer will not win this week.  The other indicator that makes me believe that to be the case is that his last starts have yielded a 4th, 9th, 5th and 3rd......................and 85th at the Players.  That is the one I most wanted to see some performance at as an indicator that he can cope with the challenge from tee to green here.

So, I am genuinely now struggling to add players that give balance to the selections and represent value.  How about somebody who was 25th last time out here in 2009 and 7th the following year at Aronimink.  The same player is a very useful 48th in distacne and 43 in accuracy off the tee in my recent form ranks, with 52nd for greens and 42nd for putting also.  He won last time out and ranks 20th on tour for bentgrass performance in the last 2 years.  Marc Leishman is worth another go here.  My system has him 6th here, versus 20th or so in the eyes of the layers.  70/1 is actually a nice price as long as he retains focus after his new found fame.  I am going to chance it, especially given that nagging stat I have about the prominence of Australian players in the Booz Allen Classic of 2005.

My last pick is Robert Garrigus.  I will flesh out the details later


Regards

Dave (OneBet)

Golf Tips - AT&T National Player Form Guide

AT&T National Tournament form guide http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/06/golf-tips-at-national-tournament-form.html


The AT&T National returns to Congressional's Blue Course for the first time since 2009 this year and is a changed venue since then.  Extended for the 2011 US Open to 7574 yards and with a change of greens from Poa Annua to Bentgrass, this course has more teeth than it did in 2009. This year's event is a par 70 again, with the 6th hole reverting back to its previous par 4 status (it was a par 5 in the US Open last year).  Total yardage on this tight, tree-lined track is 7250 for this year's event.  


A glance at the leaderboard for last year's US Open made one thing clear: In spite of typically penal graduated US Open rough and tree lined fairways, you have to be able to hit the golf ball a long way to prosper.


As usual, my form guide is shown below.  I rank based upon an average finishing position for a player's last 3 events.  It is perhaps surprising that only Jim Furyk averages under or even close to 10 for his last 3 events.  the usual then of the the top 60 or so in the form guide, with some comments regarding those who clearly seem to be much higher in the betting than their form suggests.

Greg Owen - Bookies rank: 47th (100/1).  My system rank: 41st.  My form rank: 3rd
My system likes Greg Owen more than the bookies' systems do it seems here.  The reason for that is that Owen is playing some really solid golf of late.  Owen is in the top 37 on tour for driving distance, accuracy, GIR and putts per round according to my recent form ratings.  With 6 top 31 finishes in 8 events, it is clear Owen is swinging the golf club well.  The problem with Owen is the frequency with which he ruins his week with a bad round.  He finished 9th last time out, and for the four form stats above was 20th, 21st, 5th and 36th respectively.  But, his 3rd round ruined the charge.  I expect him to go quite well here, but would be surprised were he to place.  If Owen keeps playing like this, then the week he puts four rounds together could be the week he shocks the whole field.

Rory Sabbatini - Bookies rank: 23rd (80/1).  My system rank :21st. .My form rank: 5th
Finally waking from an extended slump this season and is starting to threaten leaderboards again.  A useful 30th here n the US Open last year, a dialled in Sabbatini can scramble better than most when in contention. Sabatini was 12th in greens his in the 2011 Open, so can clearly use his draw to his advantage around this course and keep the ball in play.  Sabbatini will need to improve his driving this week to contend I feel, with only average driving distance and accuracy stats in recent events.  His putter is warming up nicely though and he has been 12th for total putts in the last 2 events.  80/1 is too tight for me to advise a play here.

Blake Adams - Bookies rank: 30th (90/1).  My system rank :48th. .My form rank: 7th
Although Adams is in decent nick in recent events, it is noteworthy that he only just sits inside the top 100 in the fedex cup standings.  Many times in recent events he has featured high, only to fall away near the end.  Adams has been in the top 15 at halfway 4 times in the last 6 events but has only a single top 15 finish to show for his efforts in that time (12th, Players).  Adams is a good driver.  Very straight off the tee and OK if not spectacular for distance, he gets a more consistent look at the green than most.  80th last time out for greens bucks a recent trend though and I am concerned by how this aspect of his game fell away over the weekend at the Travelers.  Before then, Adams was 8th, 42nd and 17th in greens hit, which is a valuable commodity at Congressional (McIlroy hit 86% of greens in 2011, with 79% a distant 2nd).  I would be surprised to see Adams in the mix this week.

John Merrick - Bookies rank 62nd (150/1).  My system rank: 37th.  My form rank: 17th
Merrick is interesting, because the bookies have entirely dismissed him and that is overly dismissive.  It was only 2 events ago that Merrick finished 2nd at the Fedex St Jude Classic.  Merrick MDF at the Travelers, but do not dismiss his performance entirely as he shot the 4th best round of the day in round 2, but was let down by a poor effort in rounds 1 and 3.  Merrick is in the top 20 of my Par 4 birdie or better stats and has decent tournament form too, finishing 15 and 16th last two years, with a 27th at Congressional in 2008 also. Merrick's putting is not generally his strongest suit, but he has been driving and hitting his irons pretty well of late.  Although I believe the bookies have Merrick's price wrong, there are a couple of factors which would stop me believing he gets it done here.  First, in my last 12 recorded events for Merrick on courses using bentgrass putting surfaces, Merrick has not been better than 30th.  Second, Merrick's scrambling is not good enough to get it done here.  I have to swerve him.

I will talk about Ryan Palmer a little more in my main preview, but he leads the form guide here ahead of Furyk, both of whom are then a long way ahead of the rest for consistency.  There is a lot to like about the chances of both this week, as they are continually threatening to place and win.  They are very close to my team for the week and I will finalise selections later.

Regards

Dave (OneBet)