Golf tips - The Tour Championship Tips and Tournament form guide

Outright selections
1.5pts EW Jim Furyk at 25/1 (Various)
0.75pts EW Nick Watney at 40/1 (Various)
0.75pt EW Sergio Garcia at 28/1 (Coral, BoyleSports)
0.75pts EW Ryan Moore at 55/1 (Stan James, 50/1 general)

For East Lake facts and figures click here

Hi all

The usual course/tournament form analysis below.


My tournament analysis goes back to 2001 and I analyse in the following way:

• Tournament experience, with a maximum 8 points if a player has played 6 or more times
• Tournament history, with a maximum 10 points if a player has ever won the event, with further increments down to down to 2 points for any top 25.  
• Tournament form in 2012, 2011 and 2010, with up to 4 points available for each year.  
• Course experience points - As per tournament form, but for the specific course in use.  Aside from 2001 and 2003, East Lake has been the host course.
• There are 3 factors which dilute the effectiveness of going back to 2001 for course form


• Champions GC in Houston was the host course in 2001/2003, not East Lake


• Putting surfaces changed from Bentgrass to Bermudagreass in 2008


• The Tour Championship only became the FedEx cup finale (its current guise) in 2007.

Despite these factors, it makes every sense to consider a longer course and tournament history; players who had a liking for the layout in 2006 will have a liking in 2012, even if they may find the pressure and putting surfaces different to pre FedEx cup days.

As we are looking at course form in years gone by, not all in the field make the list due to 2012 being their debut year. However, 23 out of 30 possible entrants do tee up, further confirming the quality of the field that assembles this week.  Of the first-timers that do tee up this week, the likes of Robert Garrigus and a certain Rory McIlroy can not be ignored.

So, looking purely at course and history form, with a ranking system that aims to differentiate between players who do consistently well and those who don't (either one hit wonders or those consistent performers who do not really challenge), we get the following results, with further analysis below the table:

As it is the tour finale, I am going to summarise the merits of all players in the field for my tournament analysis in order of my ranking.

Tournament rank 1: Phil Mickelson, 12/1 general.  4th in FedEx standings

After 4 top 4 finishes in 6 events, including victory at the AT&T at Pebble and a dreadful bounce from a thin piece of temporary stand arguably costing him the Masters, Phil rather drifted away from the business end of tournament golf..........until the FedEx cup play-offs.  A charging 4th at the Deutsche and 2nd at the BMW having co-led through 54 holes tells us Phil is back.  And, he is number 1 ranked here on tournament form too.  Phil was 5th here back in 2002 and, since 2007 when this became the FedEx cup climax and Bermuda grass greens arrived a year later, he has been a factor.  3rd in 2008, 1st in 2009 and 10th in 2011 tells you Phil may be hard to keep away from the sharp end next week.  There are two ways of looking at recent results here.  Phil was also 22nd in 2010.  In the last two years then, Phil has "only" been 22nd and 10th in a 30 man field.  12/1 is a little tough to be on side with; 2 hot tournaments after a bleak mid-season makes 3/1 the place marginal, even in such a limited field,

Tournament rank 2: Jim Furyk 25/1 general. 18th in FedEx cup standings.

Now, this guy is interesting.  Furyk did not make 2011 here, which is probably the only thing that has him out of top spot in the tournament ranks.  Furyk finished 8th and 2nd here before the FedEx cup event switch in 2007.  11th in 2007 was only OK, but since the switch to Bentgrass in 2008, Furyk has been 6th and 7th before landing the whole thing by winning in 2010.  It will take a stunning sequence of events for him to land the overall FedEx cup prize this time, but winning the tournament itself is not such a leap of faith.  Furyk warms up nicely at this time of year. 2010 - 15th at the BMW and then 1st at the Tour Championship.  2011: 6th at the Deutsche and 22nd at the BMW.  This year : 13th at the Deutsche and 9th at the BMW.  I have left Furyk alone since his narrow failure at the US Open, but he makes my team again here.

Tournament rank 3: Luike Donald 20/1 general (22/1 Coral).  15th in FedEx cup standings

At the head of World golf, Rory McIlroy has steamed off in to the distance in terms of ranking, with Woods and Westwood also coming to the fore as the PGA FedEx Cup race nears its finale.  Luke Donald, however, has been somewhat left behind.  Last year, Donald finished 18th, 3rd, 4th and 3rd in the 4 play-off events. The year before, 15th, 2nd, 37th and 2nd.  10th, 26th and 28th in the first 3 events this year suggests his game is a little off. It is actually with the putter that Donald is surprisingly most off his game.  He was top 20 for total putts in all play-off events last year, but nothing better than 27th so far this year.  His scrambling was poor at the BMW too.  Donald has been 3rd and 2nd last 2 years here and on the surface, 20/1 in a 30 man field looks attractive.  However, there are too many players hitting better form for him to be taken here.

Tournament rank 4: Hunter Mahan 66/1 Various (70/1 SportingBet).  23rd in fedEx cup.

Barring injury, it was almost unthinkable that Hunter Mahan would have missed the Ryder Cup and found himself 70/1 and 23rd in the FedEx cup race.  However, the impressive winner of the Shell Houston and WGC Matchplay has totally fallen away in the remainder of the year.  In 15 events post Shell Houston, 1 top 10 betrays the quality of this golfer.  2nd last year and 5th in 2007, Mahan can clearly play this track.  We are getting over 15/1 a place,but I can leave him even at that price.  Mahan is not hitting his irons close and is not making birdies.  I can't back that he turns that around here.

Tournament rank 5: Adam Scott 18/1 general.  21st in FedEx cup.

Aside from 6th here last year, Scott won before the format change in 2006.  He is in good form too, with 6th and 7th in his last two events.  My big reservation with Scott is whether he will putt well enough to land the prize here.  Last year's top 5 were 1st, 10th, 3rd, 2nd and 8th in total putts.  Scott putted a lot better last week, but may be found just short come next Sunday..

Tournament rank 6: Tiger Woods 6/1 Coral, 11/2 in other places. 2nd in FedEx cup

9 top 10s in 17 events, including 3 wins, Tiger is back isn't he?  Well, nearly.  And, Rory has come along and swept him aside in recent weeks.  Tiger has won 3 times this year on courses where he has had proven success in the past.  He only ranks 6th this year due to not making it in 2010 and 2011.  His 4 results before that here? 2nd, 1st, 2nd, 2nd.  At a general 11/2, the place position just about covers the win part of the bet and many will think that is compelling enough to back each way - surely Woods will not be too far away.  Woods is scrambling and putting well, which will be useful here.  He is also striking his mid to long range irons beautifully when in position.  I just can't quite have him at such short odds right now.  Woods is in the pressure zone of knowing a win lands him the whole FedEx cup.  The top 5 will be under a lot of pressure and, while Woods has more winning knowledge than all others, he has been a little susceptible in the heat of battle this year when it comes to the big events.

Brief summaries for the rest of the field (apart from my other selections, who I need to justify)

Tournament rank 7: Zach Johnson, 33/1 general.  9th in FedEx cup.
Out of form recently, until a strong first three rounds last week.  2nd 2007 (Bentgrass) and 9th last year, plus Georgia affinity confirmed with his Masters win.  A pass for me, although the place terms hold some appeal.

Tournament rank T8: Nick Watney, 40/1 general.  3rd in FedEx cup.

A lot of pressure for the top 5 entering the event.  However, Watney has some interesting hidden claims here.  When Furyk won with -8 in 2010, Watney played the weekend in -10 to place 4th.  He can win this event if he hooks up.  Being blown away at the PGA aside, Watney has 9 straight top 45s, 7 of which are top 21 finishes.  He won two events ago and can be forgiven a bit of a mental snooze in the next two events. Watney likes Bermuda and his caddy reads the surfaces particularly well.  Watney is very tempting at the odds given.  I am going to play him at reduced stakes - the pressure of knowing it is all in his hands leaves me a little hesitant.

Tournament rank T8: Ernie Els, 50/1 general.  22nd in FedEx Cup.

6 events and nothing better than 26th since the Open, Els is a huge leap of faith.  7th 2010, 9th 2009 and 6th 2008 shows Els may choose here to improve.  Consider match bets where he may be 6/4 or worse depending on his opponent.

Tournament rank 10: Steve Stricker. 33/1 general.  13th in Fedex Cup.  

6th is Stricker's best finish here.  Recent form none too clever either, although he is finding greens better than most..  A pass for me - Watney's 40s and Furyk's 25s are eminently better value.

Tournament rank 11: Sergio Garcia, 28/1 available, 25s general.  12th in FedEx Cup..  

No appearances here since 2008, however 2nd that year and 4th the year before tells you Sergio likes this place.  Sergio won 3 starts ago on BermudaGrass in landing the Wyndham.  He also led the field for total putts at WGC Cadillac on Bermuda earlier this year.  Sergio is driving well and hitting greens better than most.  If he gets his putting groove back on Bermuda at a course where he has placed last two times he has played it, he should be a major player in this event.  At 12th in the FedEx cup, he may just land the whole thing with a win.  Importantly for Sergio, he may not realise how close he is to landing the FedEx cup until he walks off the course, as the permutations tend to switch often in this event. Sergio's temperament in strokeplay golf's biggest events is questionable, so he is backable from off the pace in the FedEx cup. I am going to have a reduced play on Sergio this week, who will hopefully be ready to dial in ahead of the Ryder Cup.

Tournament rank T12: Bo Van Petl, 35/1 available, 33/1 general.  19th in FedEx cup.

Bo always appeals because he almost nearly always plays better than his odds suggest.  However, he so often just misses even a place.  9th here last year and 10th last week.  I just overlook him here, due to the preference for Sergio/Watney/Furyk in this sort of price band.

Tournament rank T12: John Senden, 80/1 SkyBet, 661 various.  29th in FedEx cup

10th in 2009 is about all we have for Senden.  Poor result last week.  General indifferent putting means I can't back him here, even at such odds.

Tournament rank 14: Dustin Johnson, 16/1 general.  7th in FedEx cup.

3 poor finishes last 3 years here, but 3rd, 4th and 6th in his last 3 events.  Johnson will have his backers, but not for me at the price, given abject course form.  As Johnson has won in each of the last two years during the FedEx cup, pressure will have been high at East Lake.  It still is, as he sits 7th in the standings.  A swerve for me.

Tournament rank T15: Bubba Watson, 33/1 general.  11th in FedEx Cup

3 attempts, nothing better than 17th.  Led the field for scoring on Sunday in the BMW to rocket up to 12th overall.  Won in Georgia at the Masters this year too of course.  Improved irons and scrambling last time out.  Could surprise a few, but not the best midfielder to pick from for me.

Tournament rank T15: Justin Rose, 33/1 general.  24th in FedEx cup.

3 appearances, with only 11th back in 2007 as a best result.  Better form at the BMW than recent efforts.  Irons really back on song last week as he led the field in GIR.  However, putting stats remain pretty dire.  No better than 46th for strokes gained putting in 3 play-off events.  Avoid.

Tournament rank T17: Jason Dufner, 25/1 general.  10th in FedEx cup.

13th and 19th here in 2 previous events is OK.  2 good rounds out of 4 in the last 3 events.  If he puts it together, he contends again as he has for much of the season.  Dufner's first tour win (Zurich, this year) was on Bermuda and he was 2nd at halfway in the Masters, also at Georgia.  I can't back him this week, but he could get it done.

Tournament rank T17: Matt Kuchar,  50/1 general. 16th in Fed Ex cup. 

2 poor finishes here in the last 2 years and a very poor play-off sequence to date.  54th last week, despite 2nd in strokes gained putting and good scrambling stats.  Irons need to improve a lot for him to feature.

Tournament rank 19th: Ryan Moore, 50/1 general.  28th in fed ex cup.

9th 2010 in his only appearance - interesting.  Moore has finished 24th, 10th and 10th in the play-offs to date to make East Lake this week having been way off the pace coming in.  Good iron play, 4th in proximity to the hole last week and performing well on and around the green, Moore is tempting at the price.  Moore's 9th here in 2010 came off 3rd at the BMW, so can he can ride two hot rounds in the play-offs.  Prior to the play-offs, Moore has had 4 top 10s, 3 of which came in a run of 4 events.  I am going to take him to ride the momentum once more and feature,  at what are tasty odds for one of the very best form players coming in.

Tournament rank 20th: Brandt Snedeker, 401 general, 5th in FedEx cup

Big pressure on Snedeker this week, knowing a win means 11.4m US dollars.  16th and 29th in two tries here is not overly encouraging either.  Also, having placed 2nd and 6th in the first 2 play-off events, Snedeker produced 4 average to poor rounds at TPC Boston last time. give me Watney of the 40/1 shots instead please.

Tournament rank T21st: Carl Pettersson, 75/1 Stan James, 66/1 general.  17th in FedEx cup.  

21st in 2008 and 16th in 2006 here are the only indicators we have, although Pettersson is a better player now of course.  However, he arrives having done nothing since his fine PGA and subsequent Wyndham showing.  I am going to leave Pettersson, although he is close to being backed purely on his price.

Tournament rank T21st : Keegan Bradley, 40/1 general.  14th in FedEx cup.

A useful 11th in his maiden appearance last year, Bradley has been 1st (Bridgestone), 3rd (PGA defence) and 13th (Deutsche) in the last 5 events.  Useful form, although he had a poor BMW last time out.  Will need to putt a lot better than he did last time out to feature.

Tournament rank T21st : Webb Simpson, 45/1 available 40/1 general.  25th in FedEx cup.

Webb entered last season's Tour Championship 1st in the FedEx cup standings. Not so this time.  Webb's debut last year, perhaps understandably, was underwhelming.  Webb swapped good irons for good putting last time out.  If he can put it together, he may feature.  However, it is a leap of faith that 40/1 does not justify.

The rookies

Rory - Obvious favourite here.  Can he really win 3 straight, hold his FedEx lead and land a huge prize?  Maybe, but I can't take him at 5/1 given that and his debut here.  He has arguably the best chance, but enough arguments for me to want 8s.  

Lee Westwood - 16s and in good form.  8th in the race, arguably his biggest title - the FedEx cup - may well be landed if he were to win here.  I tend to look for Westwood when it is Bentgrass greens in the States.  Also, last time out, he hardly troubled McIlroy in meandering to T2nd with the equally languid Mickelson.  If he has a poor 1st round, I might just back him EW to come from off the pace and get in the mix, but I can't have him outright.

Louis Oosthuizen - 25s and with a great chance to win the whole thing if he prevails, winning is quite a proposition for the debutant.  Like Westwood, I struggle to trust Oosthuizen on Bermuda and, given all other factors, he is overlooked.

Robert Garrigus - 66s is too tight.  Garrigus did well to get here and is a streaky type, but I think too many of the World's top players will get between him and a place this week.

Rickie Fowler - 75/1 is available for Rickie in this 30 man field.  Sounds good on a purely price basis. However, 8 events coming in with only 1 top 30 (24th Barclays) makes him unbackable on debut.  

John Huh - In three of the last 4 events, Hiuh has had a very strong Friday and Sunday, spoiled by a fairly abject Thursday and Saturday.  Huh is dismissed at 100/1.  May be worth a second look if his 1st round is useful.

Scott Piercy - 100/1 and last to scrape in at 30th in the FedEx cup race, Piercy has lost his game during the play-offs.  the only bright spot was a good last round at the BMW last time out.  I can't back him this week. 

Good luck!

Dave (OneBet)

Golf tips - US Open outright selections

Outright selections
2pt win Lee Westwood at 13/1 (Paddy Power) Loss 2pts
2pts EW Matt Kuchar at 33/1 (Vairous, 6 places) Loss 4pts
1.5pts EW Jim Furyk at 45/1 (Betfred, Totesport) Result T4th Profit 9.125pts
1pt EW Graeme McDowell at 80/1 (Various, but take 6 places) Result 2nd Profit 19 points
1pt Ew Aaron Baddeley at 125/1 (Various, take 6 places) Loss 3pts
0.5pts EW Brian Harman at 1000/1 (Various, but take 6 places) Loss 1pt
1.25pts EW Ian Poulter at 80/1 (William Hill) Loss 2.5pts


Total profit - 15.625pts


Not taking part and replaced by Ian Poulter above
0.3pts EW Paul Casey at 250/1 
1pt EW Sean O'Hair


US Open player from guide http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/06/golf-tips-2012-us-open-player-form.html
US Open tournament form guide http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/06/golf-tips-us-open-tournament-form-guide.html


Course guide
For the 5th time, Olympic Club hosts the US Open.  Traditionally the toughest of the 4 majors, Rory McIlroy's gallop to victory and -16 will surely not be repeated this year.  Similar to the Masters, this tournament is filled with subplots and the peaking players at the very top of the game.  


First to the course.  A Par 70 at little over 7000 yards this course is theoretically not long.  However, much will depend on the approach a player takes as to the extent that is correct.  Recent editions of the US Open have allowed big hitters to thrive, with the oft touted pre-requisite of accuracy off the tee not really being born out.  However, this week appears a little different, which brings me back to my original point.  Tight, tree-lined and with potential for coastal breeze to constantly affect ball flight off the tee, players may elect to play 3 wood or even lower on some holes to try and assure they remain in play for the next shot.  Do that however, and this course will then play very long in places.  In addition, there is a genuine requirement for players to shape the ball both ways off the tee.


The first 6 holes are brutal and will severely test the mental aspect of a player's game from the very start.  Length wise, players will feel respite after that point.....that is, until the small matter of the 670 yard 16th.  Lee Janzen won the event by 4 shots here in 1998 (averaging 70 shots per round), the last time this event was played here and was the only player to play four rounds in the 60s 5 years prior (thanks for that stat twitter).  However, this course has changed fairly significantly then.  In '98, there was a great controversy surrounding the 18th green and the fact that it literally would not hold the ball for certain shots. That has been fixed, diseased trees have been removed and several tee areas have been move, altering the dynamic of the tee shot for the golfer.  Another highly significant change is the move from from Poa Annua to Bentgrass greens in 2007.  This in some ways gives the event a more Open feel - Bentgrass greens does tend to give East coasters a better (more even) chance than Poa did.  


Given all of this, what type of player are we looking for here?  Bogey avoidance is perhaps obviously key.  I refer to the point I made in the tournament guide "The US Open is set up to be a brutal test for players, so those prominent in the above form guide know how to keep their focus an be patient during the inevitable spells when scoring gets tough. Perspective is critical here.  The first 6 holes are a real test and it is conceivable that anything less than a fine ball-striking start could see a player fall to +2 or worse.  Those experienced above in US Opens before know well that +2 come the close of Sunday is top 20 and maybe much higher.  The ability to play each hole on its merits and with full focus will take a player a long way this week".  Westwood (10th), Kuchar (2nd), Furyk (1st), McDowell (55th), Baddeley (108th), Harman (93rd) and Poulter (85th last year, no formal stats this as of yet) are a mixed bag in this stat on tour.


Total driving is important as a player ideally can be both long and straight.  Of the two, players that can find the fairway are arguably more important than those who can hit it long this week.  I believe his to be an open Open, as it were and both type of golfer will feature come Sunday I expect.  Allied to this is the ability to find the putting surface.  Greens are on the small side, so instances of long,  treacherous putts across tiered greens will be lessened here.  With bent greens possibly reaching 13.5 on the stimp, players will want to find greens as often as possible to avoid treacherous chips.  Over the back on 18 remains a bad plan......


The other type of player is the guy who misses a few greens, chips like a dream and putts wonderfully from 5-10ft.  All with have a few of those, but I do not really want to trust that anybody does that to win more than most.  Putting on such greens is important, but I think this type of test is more about making the 2 putt par your default setting and allowing the occasional putt to drop.  I do not need the best putter this week, although anybody who can guarantee me Westwood tops that stat, I will take 7/1.


The selections
Before I explain my reasoning, a quick comment on the leading contenders in general.


World no.1 Luke Donald enters this event on the back of a win in the prestigious BMW PGA and a fast finishing 12th last time out.  A brilliant scrambler and putter, Donald has a chance here.  If you pick the course up and dump it in Florida, I am backing Donald at those odds.  I feel I can actually leave Donald quite easily here.  First, Donald's driving distance, accuracy, greens hit and even putting is less compelling this year versus last as a generalisation.  Although long enough for this course, I think he will suffer too greatly in GIR to be able to win.  


Rory defends here of course and had he found a birdie instead of water on the 72nd hole last week, he would have taken Dustin Johnson to a play-off.  However, Rory missed so many fairways last week and a repeat of that here will really hurt him.  I do not believe Rory wins.


Tiger has won 3 times now since his return (yes, I do include the Chevron).  Each time he has returned a scene of several past triumphs to prosper again.  A much younger Tiger played here in 98, finishing T18th and failing to better 71 over 4 days.  I simply can not trust that he wins here for a whole host of reasons, not least that he is a difficult man to trust on tight tracks.  Like Rory (and despite tour stats to the contrary), I am not convinced Tiger is straight enough to win this week.


On to Lee Westwood.  That I have gone win only on Westwood could be interpreted as lunacy.  Arguably the most consistent finish in Major Championship golf with 6 top 3 finishes in 10 majors, Westwood fits the bill beautifully here.  Players do not win the US Open after winning the week prior (and, Ogilvy aside, players in the last 10 years do not win having played the week prior, never mind won) so we do have a fair bit of history to overcome here.  If opposing Westwood, this would be a compelling reason.  As I am on side, I will pick at the stat.  Firstly, Westwood's win last Saturday was on a Wed-Sat schedule; the extra day is a significant difference.  Second, Westwood won at an absolute canter and had noting like the sort of mental exertion that the likes of Dustin Johnson and Rory faced late (not so late as the event finished earlier than other regular events) in to Sunday.  I have already said that I want great all-round drivers (Westwood), players who can consistently find the green (Westwood), tend to keep bogeys off the card (Westwood) and not necessarily the best putter on the planet (Westwood).  Westwood can handle the brief this week and the two top 3 finishes in the 3 years at the Masters demonstrates that fast bent is not necessarily the feature that costs him a serious challenge for the title here.  I could have gone 2EW here, but actually believe that a dialled in Westwood this week can leave this field in his wake.  Let's be non-English and get bold.  Win only.


Matt Kuchar is not a player that I usually look to.  However, I simply can not ignore his credentials here. T15th as a rookie in 1998 here, Kuchar really should be close come Sunday.  Whichever way you evaluate Kuchar's finishes, Mr Consistency is impressive.  11 events, nothing worse than 44th, with 9 top 26s this year, Kuchar has won the Players and finished T3 in the Masters.  If we extend back in to last year, Kuchar has in 20 tournaments been in the top 26 17 times!  That is truly sensational consistency.  The win at the Players offers encouragement here as the tight course offers some similarity to this in terms of the challenge from tee to green  Kuchar was exceptional in closing out at Sawgrass and I see him winning here.  His 3rd at the Masters shows also that fast bent is fine for him.  Kuchar has been top 10 in greens in 3 of the last 5 events and top 10 in putts in each of the last 2 events.  Hard - too hard - to omit this week.


Jim Furyk finished 2nd here in 1998 so can play the course in its old guise.  I am happy to wager he can play the newly modified course too.  When I think of a photofit for tough challenges, I think of Furyk,  A great record in British Opens and a previous US Open winner, Furyk is exactly the competitor to have on your team this week.  Top 22 in riving accuracy in 8 of his last 9 events and 3rd last time out, Furyk will be firing in to greens from the fairway more than most.  Also, first in greens at the Crowne Plaza demonstrates where his iron game is.  I always think that in tough events, consistent players can prosper as they just need to stay consistent to turn a decent finish in to a place position and potentially even a win.  Furyk is like Kuchar in that respect, both as they are impeccable golfers who so often finish well.  With 8 straight top 26 finishes including a play-off loss at the Transitions, this feels like the sort of event Furyk could return big in.  The 2010 Tour Championship winner can really give us a run this week, by doing nothing more than keeping on keeping on.


Graeme McDowell won of course in 2010.  His winning score was even par and the brief will be similar here.  It is fair to say that McDowell has failed to really hit the heights since.  However, there are signs he is coming back.  Although great friends, I am sure GMac would love to take the title back from Rory this week.  McDowell has actually MC in his last 2 events, and the Players and BMW PGA are events you want players demonstrating form in to feel entirely happy.  On the flip side, this means McDowells is 80s and not 40s, so not all bad.  Last year, Mcdowell finished 14th, ruined only by a poor 2nd round.  McDowell's record around the event was abject: 42nd, 100th, 59th, 61st, 113th, 33rd, 128th, 14th (US Open result), 87th, 65th, 127th, 43rd, 37th.  13 straight events with only the US Open a positive.  I often like to find players who have displayed this sort of profile in the previous year and enter this year in better shape - my spread bet on Allenby last week was on a similar premise.  McDowell missed the cut at the players due largely to his putting.  His game tee to green is actually very encouraging.  In the last 4 events, McDowell's driving accuracy reads 1st, 1st, 4th, 1st.  Wow.  28th in greens last time out and back with real incentive this week, I believe McDowell can again contend.


Aaron Baddeley has a great recent record at Riviera and I like the link here as it is arguably the most representable challenge to this week on tour.  In his last 5 starts in California, Baddeley has finished 6th, 1st, 27th, 4th and 11th.  Baddeley started this season well but fell away between the Shell Houston (week 13) and the Crowne Plaza (Week 21) with nothing better than 40th  However, at the Memorial last time out, Baddeley started well and finished a solid 9th.  25th and 26th for putts in the last two events on Bent greens, Baddeley will cope better than most on these greens.  The hint at a return to form at a huge 125/1 makes this a highly appealing price.


So, my first ever advised 1000/1 tip.  Definitely fishing here huh?  William Hill's pointless pricing on outsiders aside (in which all players are lower than other bookies in price), Harman is 400s with several other layers.  the main reason I have taken a punt on this crazy outsider is his performance in the 2004 US Junior champs here.  Harman shot 66-67 to finish as the only player under par and a winner by 8 strokes.  Of course, the course has changed, but clearly the basic attributes fitted his eye well last year in the same way that it did Furyk in 1998.  Harman's form has been fairly poor after a good start to the season, but last time out his driving was much improved (10th accuracy, 28th distance).  Amidst an average Players Championship display, Harman did shoot the 5th best round in round 2.  A real long range punt this one, but a good start could see him cause a massive shock and challenge for a place.


Finally, my super-sub Ian Poulter.  I said all I really wanted and needed to in my player guide posted earlier today "On the tight, tree-lined Wentworth track, Poulter finished 10th a couple of weeks ago, improving upon his best effort around the track.  I want somebody who can putt on hard fast bentgrass surfaces this week and the man who has been 10th, 27th and 3rd in the last 3 Masters will do for me.  However, he makes this list for his recent form.  Coming in to the vent, in a stretch that includes top notch events such as the Masters, the Players and BMW PGA Championship Poulter has the following 6 event stretch : 3rd, 7th, 29th, 15th, 25th, 10th.  Pretty compelling form.  The 29th was on an absolute beast of course in China and the Ballantines after was on slow putting surfaces - hardly Poulter's forté.  3rd, 7th and 21st in accuracy off the tee in his last 3 events and 13th in greens at the Players, I really expect Poulter to be grinding it near the top of the leaderboard this week."


There are obvious others to consider such as Phil (I am worried about Phil), Rose, Dufner, Molinari and Petterson, but I am very happy with my team


Regards


Dave (OneBet)