Outright selections
0.2pts EW Kyle Thompson at 1000/1 (SkyBet, BetVictor) and 0.2pts top 20 at 40/1 (SkyBet)
1pt EW Henrik Stensson at 40/1 (Various)
1pt EW Kevin Stadler at 125/1 (Various)
1pt EW JB Holmes at 66/1 (BoyleSports)
Additional bet
2pt EW Jason Dufner to win the Money list at 10/1 (Various, but take 3 places and 1/5 odds)
As mentioned on Twitter, Wednesday night was always going to be my only hope of writing a preview. And, here it is, albeit a hasty one.
I have been keeping up with twitter whilst away and have heard a lot about how few players making the top 25 at the PGA the week before have then gone on to place at the Wyndham. Well, it is a bit of a red herring in my view. In 2010, only 2 players from the top 25 of the PGA PLAYED the next week at the Wyndham. In 2011, that had swelled to 4 players. Hardly a compelling stat then, that none of the 6 (Dufner/Petterson 2010, Dufner/Immelman/Toms/Haas 2011) made top 5. The simple fact is that the top players playing in the PGA use Wyndham as a gap week as a general rule ahead of the play-offs.
So, let us not eliminate anybody at all from our selections on this basis. However, at time of writing, Jason Dufner has come in to 12s, as has Webb Simpson, with Petterson now 18s. Asserting that any of these prices are value is not something I can readily do.
Petterson played well last week and has a great record here, but I am not sure I can have him within a few points of the favourite before the off. He went pretty deep last week and, despite the short journey here, his press coverage has been pretty full-on for a guy not usually so accustomed to the lime light. I would not be surprised were he to prosper here, but his MC when last well placed at the PGA coming in is enough to put me off, despite 4th in 2011 and 1st in 2008 on this course. The 1st in 2008 and subsequent 67th in 2009 also gives a clue as to how Petterson may cope this week as the media attention would have been similar in 2009 to this week before the off.
Simpson really impressed me in the 2nd round last week, after shaking off the rust of his planned absence from the game in the 1st round. 8th in 2010 and 1st in 2011 shows Simpson loves the course and plays it well. However, the change to Bermuda is a slight negative for me: Simpson is 40th in my Bermuda positive ranking, versus 22nd on Bentgrass (the green grass prior to this year's renovation). Despite the US Open win, Simpson's form has been a little less than stellar this year and he is not a 12/1 shot this week. He can win, but I can't have him at the price.
I was with Dufner for his maiden win and he has been good to me generally this year, but his record is indifferent in this event. He is a better player now of course, and he never contended last week, unlike the last two years in the PGA (5th 2012, 2nd 2011). I have nothing better than 26th on this course however and nothing better than 8th way back in 2004 to guide me here. With new greens set to play firmer and faster, Dufner may struggle a little. Bermuda grass greens are a slight negative versus Bent in my stats, but this less than top draw putter does not really have his results driven by excellence on the greens. Tee shots are arguably too easy here for Dufner's accuracy to really give him an edge over tougher tracks, although his approach play in to firmer greens will give him more presentable birdie opportunites than most if not all of the field. I have been on recent near misses for Dufner. Now I have omitted him, I do not want him to win this week...................but I do for the bet I will detail later.
The first pick for me is my 2nd 1000/1 pick of the year. The first 1000/1 pick, Brian Harman, had sneaky course form at the US Open and fell short, while Michael Thompson got it done at huge odds as one of the few others who also had indicators there. So, hopefully I am using the right logic this week also with my insane pick. This guy has the following form in 2012: MC (18 times), WD (once) and T57th. So, I am truly insane right? Well, quite possibly. But, there are some decent reasons for my selection and I do not think a 1000/1 dismissal is at all right. South Carolina resident (we are in NC this week) Kyle Thompson has 3 Nationwide tour wins on his CV, two of which are in the Rex Hospital Open. The Rex Hospital Open was won last year on a non too taxing course length wise with Bermuda greens, held in North Carolina. Sound familiar? This course should resonate with Thompson this week. I think Kyle Thompson is a talented player who just has lost his way on the main tour this year. He starts quite late in the day, when the TV cameras and media focus will have lessened. And, he starts on the front 9, which is unquestionably the easier 9 to start on. I hope to see him find a couple of early birdies and find a groove that will set him up for the week. I also added a top 20 bet at a pretty huge 40/1 in case he plays well but just falls short.
Jason Dufner actually tops my rating here, but I want 18s. Henrik Stenson was not an instinctive pick at all this week, but a closer look at him shows him up well enough to be worth a play. In this less than top-draw field, Stenson's three straight top 10s up to and including the Scottish Open and headline stats for driving distance, accuracy and GIR within the top 30 of my recent PGA/European tour ranks, I believe him worthy of a play. Stenson has not won for some time now, but this has the feel of the sort of event he could return in. I am not going crazy with my points here, but this feels like an event that should suit. Course form = MC/MC, but I think he has the right game coming in to suit. Remember, Stenson has hardly had game before this season. He is a player again now and will be likely well up for this event. He starts early and on the front 9. Like Thompson, the chance exists for a good start that will set him up well for the event. As a final motivation, Stenson sits a precarious 112th in the Fed Ex cup race. He will want to be involved not just next week, but deep in to the Play-Offs. Getting the job done this week will go a long way to achieving that.
Kevin Stadler is a great player if you do this by stats, who does not always get things done in the real world. However, I really like this 125/1 shot this week. Stadler hits greens and has been doing just that in recent events too. This event is one where you can say that Stadler actually has got it done over the years. Stadler was finally edged on the 75th hole here by Ryan Moore in 2009 and was also 7th in 2007, albeit on a different course. The other added factor that I really like is that the switch to Bermuda should suit his eye. Stadler in the last couple of years has generally had his best results on Bermuda. Stadler has had 5 top 11s this year, 3 of which were on Bermudagrass. Let's hope he can start well and early to give us a great run this week.
JB Holmes tees it up for the first time here this week, but should find conditions to his liking. Holmes is a little erratic at times off the tee, but that should matter less than recent events this week. Holmes hits it a long way and has been hitting more than his share of greens in recent weeks. A good wedge player, Holmes will find a short iron in his hand, with the ability to attack the pin on a number of holes. Holmes is in progressive and impressive form too, shooting 27th, 15th and 12th in his last 3 events. I really feel he can get involved here and potentially challenge for the win.
Finally, I have kind of covered Jason Dufner. If he wins here, he goes atop the money list and then is almost a shoe-in to finish top 3. If he doesn't, then he is still of course in range and can get it done as the season goes on. Dufner generally finishes his season after the play-offs, but I am hoping his motivation to win the money list will see him play on. However, I am less convinced that Rory will dramatically alter his schedule to try and win the money list title and I am almost certain that Tiger Woods will not. Woods sits 1 and Rory 2 at time of writing. A big performance from Dufner could see him land this title and a continuation of his form over the season will see him challenge the top 3 at the very least. We have to take 3 places though, because it is Tiger and Rory and because the likes of Bubba and Zach are so close also . A big chance for no. 3 in this race to steal a march on no.s 1, 2, 4 and 5, who sit this week out.
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
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