1pt EW Matt Every at 35/1 (BlueSQ, 33/1 various)
With the withdrawal of Henrik Stenson when decently placed after round 1 and with Kevin Stadler starting slowly, it seems I need to look elsewhere for my winner this week. We chose a good tournament for Kyle Thompson to make only his 2nd cut of the year and our top 20 chances are still alive there.
The following chart shows the position of the eventual winner at halfway since 2001 in this event.
Aside from 2006 and 2007, players have had to be right in the mix at halfway to win. The event has only been played at Sedgefield since 2008 of course, since which time the winner has been 1st, 1st, 1st and 2nd at halfway.
Last year, Webb Simpson sat 2nd before going on to have a strong weekend and win by 3 shots. He is the very obvious favourite again this year. The pre 2008 results are not entirely without use as winning scores were broadly similar at Forest Oaks too. Snedeker's 66-63 weekend to win in 2007 from 37th position after round 2 shows that in low scoring events, it is possible for a player to make giant strides. However, generally it is extremely tough to win from deep, because one of the leaders is always like to shoot at least one low round over the weekend.
As you may expect, there are many instances of players getting hot over the weekend and placing. The table below shows this.
Let's look more specifically at the Sedgefield results here. In 2008, Laird and Beem stormed through to place from 61st, while JJ Henry also placed from 45th at halfway. In '09, Bohn and Sutherland were able to place from 41st. In 2010, Michael Sim placed from 25th and last year, McNeill (35th to 2nd), Vijay (19th to T4th), Kim (44th to T4th), Howell III (19th to T4th) and Pettersson (35th to T4th) all made the places from deep.
So, it seems that to find our winner, we should look at the head of the leaderboard, but we should certainly not rule out players charging from deep to at least place.
With that in mind, let's try to dissect which of our leaders can get it done and who may be able to make a hero charge. From the last two years on tour, the following table shows how players have performed when in the top 20 at the post-cut stage.
Nicolas Colaserts ranks 2nd. 9 times he has been in the top 20 at halfway this year, going on to place 3 times. However, on two of those occasions, he was already in the top 5 at this stage. I can't back him, although 22/1 is very close to being backable.
Charl Schwartzel is coming back to form. 7 shots from the lead and 66/1 is appealing on the surface of things and he ranks 3rd in weekend performance in this analysis. However, I have no instances in the last two years of him placing from any lower than 18th at this stage. He is 22nd at present. His record of staying in touch after a strong start is impeccable, so I may well be advising Charl the next time he is in the top 8 or so. However, he is just too far away for my tastes this week.
As the 100/30 (3s generally) favourite, Webb Simpson has to be considered as a win only proposition Ranked 4th in our 46 man field above, clearly he has a decent chance of being close to the summit on Sunday. Webb Simpson had 14 bad rounds of golf in 2011, the 13th of which was in the PGA. Then, he won the Wyndham and went on a great run, threatening the leaders virtually every time he played. Well, he has 14 rounds bad rounds of golf so far this year and is starting to come to the boil again. Simpson's 3 tour wins have come from 2nd (here), 18th (Deutsche) and 29th (US Open) at this stage. He has twice led the field at halfway, finishing 9th and 7th. When 2nd at halfway, he has finished 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th. He has to have a great chance. Let's look at his closest pursuers before deciding to make a play here.
Jimmy Walker tends to decelerate over the weekend. This course likes to crown first time winners, but is Walker going to continue that trend? Walker led the Valero Texas Open in 2010, eventually finishing a solid 3rd after a good weekend. This year, he has been in the top 5 on three occasions at this stage. However, after going on to finish 4th at Northern Trust, he has imploded at the Honda Classic and AT&T, finishing 67th and 32nd respectively. With such quality around him, I would be very surprised were he to win here. 7/1 is pretty dire odds.
Tim Clark is a classy player, but trusting this 1 time winner to go on and win an event is always tough. At 8/1, I can not back him, especially as he is yet to put together 4 good rounds in a tournament since his return from injury. Sergio Garcia needs a great finish here to push Poulter out of the final Ryder Cup qualifying place. I thought hard about backing him to be 36 hole leader here and am rueful in seeing him T3rd now. The reason I looked more at the 36 hole option is because Garcia has not put together a good weekend all season, aside from the stunning charge in the Northern Trust Open, which almost brought victory. He can win from here if he stays dialled in, but his confidence seems to have been down this year, and I can't back him at 8/1 either, despite the incentive. Finally Carl Pettersson. Pettersson recovered well yesterday and is 2nd favourite at 6/1. Excluding the limited field Hyundai, Pettersson failed to get in the top 5 at halfway in 2011. However, 2012 has seen Pettersson here 4 times in 2012. Of those 4 times, Pettersson has finished 2nd twice and 1st once, with only a poor weekend at the Northern Trust blotting his record. With his form here over the years as well, he is a live threat.
At 35/1, I can not ignore Matt Every. My blueprint in backing players at this stage from a little off the pace is to find players that dial in when in contention. In 2012, Every has fired on all 5 times he has been in the top 30 at halfway. Mid way positions first, with final positions in brackets: 1 (6), 2 (3), 16 (8), 3 (2), 26 (6). I am getting around 8/1 here that Every places again. With the instances of players winning for the first time here as well and tight par 70s being to his liking this year, Every makes my team. Bud Cauley is on the same score, has the same number of wins - 0 - and yet is over half the price, with a less compelling performance over the weekend when in the mix. That said, his back to back 4th place finishes coming in are the reason for this. Cauley is too short for me though.
I am also going to have a small play on Jonas Blixt in the top 10 market on BetFair. Blixt is a country mile off the pace at -1, but has put together great 3rd rounds the last 3 times he has made the cut. I can't advise a formal bet, because there is only £10 at 65s available. But, I really like the price and am happy to back that he gets hot again at those prices. If you can find any way to get some money on Blixt at those sort of numbers, it is not the worst play at all. I think he is just too far away to be backable in the place market, but the huge odds available here are interesting as a back to lay option also.
So, am I backing Webb? No. There is too much quality right behind him in my view for 3/1 to be good enough value. I think he is the most likely winner, but 12/1 before the off down to 3 only a shot ahead of 4 of the pre-event favourites does not quite stack up for me, especially as the 12s was too tight to begin with.
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
No comments:
Post a Comment