Selections
No additional selections
Contending players already advised
2pts Matt Kuchar at 5.6/1 (Betfair)
2pts Jason Dufner at 4.6/1 (Betfair)
0.5pts EW Dicky Pride at 50/1 (Bet365 - next best 40/1 with Skybet, which is marginal value).
A brief update on my thoughts ahead of the final round. As Boo Weekley and Brian Davis have fallen away, we are left with our 3 halfway selections in with a chance going in to the final round.
27 players sit within 6 shots of Jason Dufner's lead and retain a reasonable to outside chance of taking the title. The bookmakers are fairly dismissive of this point however, as they offer <10/1 (3 places still offered as well) on only 2 golfers with rest 10/1 or higher. In the bookmaker's mind, it is Jason Day (3/1) or Jason Dufner's (21/10 favourite) title to lose. I agree they are favourites here, but for two men so unaccustomed actually winning tournaments, I question the gap in odds that exists to local favourite JJ Henry, who has played this course so often and Dicky Pride, who was ultra-solid yesterday and sits one off Dufner's lead.
Let's consider that point further. Jason Day won his one tour title here 2 years ago and Jason Dufner started an eventful last few weeks by winning the Zurich Classic 3 weeks ago (married the week after and now leading here). Dicky Pride won his one title at the St Jude Classic in 1994. Finally, JJ Henry won the Buick Championship in 2006 for his only tour win. So, 4 players with one title each, at the head of the field.
Jason Day backers should be slightly concerned about Day's conversion rate. The following figures show, for the last 2 years, Day's halfway position when in the top 10, with his final position in brackets. Oldest first:(here, in 2010).
3(1), 2(9), 1(5), 1(2), 8(17), 2(2), 3(9), 5(4), 3(6), 8(9),
So, 10 times in the last two years Day has been right in the mix at halfway but has only improved his position twice. This is a very similar profile to McIlroy in many ways. Like McIlroy, Day is young and a growing maturity allied to unquestioned natural ability will likely see him win often over his career. However, I am happy to believe he is more likely to meander than fire from his position alongside Dufner in the final group.
In the same time period, I have precious little on Henry, with only a 4th at halfway in which he finished 15th and a 5th which became 24th come the end of round 4. Again, I have little to fear here.
Finally, we summarised Dicky Pride yesterday. He was added to the staking plan for two reasons. First, he has shown on both previous recent occasions that when contending he can hang around. That is exactly what he did yesterday. Hanging around is just what I want him to do today as well. If he does that, a place position is likely and a win also distinctly possible. The second reason is that 50/1 was incredibly dismissive from Bet365 and did not represent his true chances in my view (Pride is now 14/1 best price). I believe we have the best mix of two golfers from the 4 players at the head of the field.
The lack of winning experience does raise the question of whether any other players can come from deep to take the title. The weather will dictate whether a player can come from off the pace by scorching around the course or just steadily inching forward (probably the latter), but there are some big name players not too far behind. Our final midway selection Matt Kuchar is one of them. The reason Matt Kuchar is 4 from the lead is entirely because his putting stroke completely betrayed him in difficult conditions yesterday. Kuchar 3 putted at least twice on the back 9 yesterday and failed to get up and down on a couple of further occasions. Missing putts from within 10 feet became a feature of his round. I would be surprised if he could turn his putting around enough to come back now. It may be possible to lay him on BetFair for around a 5th of the original stake or consider laying him some time during the final round if he reduces towards original odds, but I would not formally advise either. When a player is still in contention, I personally do not see the value in trying to lay off a golfer for a fraction of the original stake.
Of the others chasing, the undoubted pedigree of Vijay 2 shots back is a concern, as are the lurking Leishman (great player in adverse conditinos), Piercy (contended here last year), Bradley (won here last year), Palmer (play-off loser here last year, Texan, good player in the wind) and a host of others who might.
However, this course can bite anybody and so I am not going to have faith that any player will come from deep here, given that one shot can go offline and lead to a double bogey, which effectively will kill their chances. I liked the way Dufner closed out at the Zurich and I am keeping faith he will again. If he doesn't, let's hope it is Dicky Pride steaming past him to break a tour record for the longest gap between wins.
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
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