2pts Matt Kuchar at 5.6/1 (Betfair) Loss 2pts
2pts Jason Dufner at 4.6/1 (Betfair) W Profit 8.74pts (9.2pts minus maximum 5% BF commission)
0.5pts EW Dicky Pride at 50/1 (Bet365 - next best 40/1 with Skybet, which is marginal value). EW Profit 5.75pts
Total profit : 12.49pts
Outright selections (before the start of the event) http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/golf-tips-byron-nelson-outright.html
Player form guide http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/golf-tips-byron-nelson-championship.html
As we head in to the weekend, we see an intriguing and congested leaderboard at The Byron Nelson Championship. For the OneBet team, we have Boo Weekley within 4 of the lead and Brian Davis a further shot back after a best of the day 65. However, our shortest price selections - Adam Scott and Louis Oosthuizen - both failed to make the cut. It makes sense to again look at the midpoint market which gave us a nice each way return with Martin Laird last week.
This tournament is a frustration to date. As I mentioned in the blog, I had Dufner, Leishman, Blake Adams and Pettersson strongly in mind. Although the latter missed the cut, Dufner is -7 and leading after a stunning tee to green display. Leishman is a shot back and Adams handily placed at -3. In this respect, we have missed out on the value for these players from the off. With this in mind, let's see what value exists from looking first at past indicators and then at the merits of those players challenging near the head of the field.
The first chart shows the position of the eventual winner at the halfway stage since 2001.
With the exception of last year, where Keegan Bradley came from 5 shots back to beat Ryan Palmer in a play-off from 8th at half way, the winner has always been in the top 5 heading in to the weekend. So, clearly it is favourable to have your player right at the head of the field. In this case, I am concerned about having not picked Dufner, as the leader at this stage has won 5 times in the last 11 years. I am aware of course that it is only since 2007 that we have played a single course format here (Cottonwood was dropped in 2007). However, over the weekend only TPC Four Season was used, making the information above very relevant.
Let's look at the players finishing in the place positions now.
This is an interesting profile as more than most tournaments, we see that a player can charge from way deep to get in the mix. It seems odd that only 5 players have been between 20th and 40th at halfway, yet the same number of players have come from 49th-60th to place. Clearly, if you can find a groove here, you will make massive gains over the field, particularly if the wind blows. Last year Jason Day moved +3 to -1 over the weekend, to go from 60th to 5th, only 2 shots from the play-off. The year before, Brian Gay produced a stunning 63 (in better conditions than 2011), to really make headway. Brian Davis' 65 yesterday saw him make up well over 100 places on the field. Momentum can be a major ally over the weekend.
The other significant point of note is here that the leader at halfway has at least placed on every single occasion that this event has taken place. Jason Dufner is now 9/2 and the fact that he is odds against for a place makes him a very interesting consideration for a fair sized EW bet at this stage. To consider this, we need to consider the merits of the player.
With this in mind, let's look at the propensity of those players in contention to perform well over the weekend. First, my usual look at players and how they have fared when top 20 at halfway.
Charley Hoffman is number 1 in our ranks here despite actually decelerating on average over the weekend. He averages 6th at halfway and 6.7th by the finish. So, nobody here to entirely trust it seems.
Kuchar looks a clear danger. Despite the rarity of back to back winners being a factor against him, his Players win shows both his form and his tenacity when in contention. He is 2nd in our ranks here and we have 15 tournaments to analyse in making that statement. Mr Consistency could be starting to learn how to win, but I am not sure I am about to back that he does at 5/1. The way I would advise backing Kuchar is on Betfair right now. the reason is that he is generally a very consistent player in round 3. In the last 6 events on tour, he has ranked 3rd, 19th, 8th, 16th, 1st and 5th for the 3rd round. His final round stats are less compelling, so I would be keen to get him onside and consider the position again before round 4. there is currently a lot of equity at 6.6 (5.6/1) and I am keen to take that option.
So what of Dufner? His rank of 11th is OK in the last couple of years. Again, my concern with Dufner is his 4th round performance. Dufner has had one of the top 10 rounds of the day no less than 11 times in rounds 1 and 2, compared with just 3 occasions over the weekend, all in round 3. This explains why 6 top 10s at halfway has translated in to only 3 top 10s, only one of which has been a paying position (1st, Zurich Classic). The question with Dufner then is whether we can trust the Zurich win turns around his mindset over the weekend. The other question is whether Dufner can get the putter warm over the weekend. If he does, he is almost unstoppable. Dufner leads the field in driving accuracy and GIR after 2 rounds, but has taken 34 and 33 putts in doing so. His ball-striking is impeccable and that very much fits the bill here. Even decent putting over the weekend will see him go very close. Let's look at the final graph before deciding. This looks at how players fare from a top 10 position at halfway.
Our leader, Dufner, is even worse off in this comparison, which we expect given the above analysis. However, nobody around him is exactly irresistible either. We backed Dicky Pride a couple of weeks ago at massive odds and I will be really frustrated to see him prevail here. Pride is playing well and ranks 3rd in weekend performance above, albeit from only 2 samples. Kuchar is less impressive in this analysis, although 10 starts is a much more reliable data set than most. Imada improved to 3rd here last year so will take positive memories in to the weekend. Bradley also sits 8th again this year, the position from which he won last year.
My advised play is to back Kuchar on Betfair and Dufner too, given both are much better in round 3 than round 4. I am also going to have an EW play on Pride, who continues to be dismissed at 50/1. This is a smaller play due to his inexperience at the head of the fields since he returned to the tour (17 years since his last tour win is a little too distant to rely on!), but his form makes him an interesting option. Those 3, with Weekley and Davis also in the mix, represent a good portfolio of options for the weekend. I will return after round 3 to summarise the position with regards to Kuchar and Dufner (as long as they have not imploded). Hopefully they are both 4 clear of Weekley and there is nothing to do, but I suspect things will be a little trickier than that.
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
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