Golf Tips - Zurich Classic Tips

As usual, I am going to post my tips early, with further rationalé to follow in due course

Zurich Classic Outright tips
2pts EW Jason Dufner at 25/1 (Various, but take Bodog's 6 places) W Profit 62.5pts
1pt EW John Senden at 50/1 (Various, but take Bodog's 6 places) Loss 2pts
1pt EW Pat Perez at 110/1 (Bet365) Loss 2pts
1pt W Bubba Watson at 14/1 (Various) Loss 1pt
1pt W Justin Rose at 22/1 (Various) Loss 1pt

Total profit 56.5pts

Zurich Classic form guide http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/04/golf-tips-zurich-classic-form-guide.html

Tournament guide
The Zurich Classic is the next event on tour and, in terms of calibre of field, represents a distinct step up from last week's Valero Texas Open.

TPC Louisiana is the host course this week and, apart from the disruption of Hurricane Katrina forcing a change in 2006, has been the host venue since 2005.  At a little over 7300 yards, this par 72 ranks as moderate in terms of difficulty - scores in the region of -15 have typically been enough to contend.  The course's main defence is in numerous bunkers, water hazards and the oft tricky winds that can get up around this course.  The last 3 holes may well provide late drama here as they can reward a player who needs to go low to make up ground (the par 4 16th is driveable and the par 5 18th reachable in 2).  However, on the converse, the risk element is prevalent too, with water guarding all 3 holes, the par 3 17th likely to play the toughest hole on the course and bunkers a major feature.

In short, we have an exciting golf course that can be attacked, but that also has enough to concern golfers who do not play smart golf or really dial in their game this week.

In trying to pick a winner, we have enough course form to support our predictions, but surprisingly, precious little in the way of consistent contenders here.  Bubba won last year after a 43rd and 2 MC previously, with only a 5th in 2007 to hint he could compete around here.  Jason Bohn has a 67th and MC either side of his 2010 win and Jerry Kelly won in 2009 and then finished 67, MC next two years.  It is possible for players who  have little or no previous course form to win here.  In my outright selections, a couple of my player's are selected on an attribute basis, rather than on course form, but more on that later.

I said in my form guide (link above) that players in form are important.  The top 5 last year (Bubba aside) all arrived in pretty good shape after a good performance coming in.  I want players playing well coming in here.  Putting and driving is actually pretty negligible this week - this is all about hitting greens and scrambling well when missing greens.  That was on over-simplistic statement of course, but the numbers below really do highlight how crucial it is to hit greens this week versus the other headline stats of driving distance, driving accuracy and putts per round.

Average rank of top 7 players in the Zurich Classic 2011
Driving distance:  32.1
Driving accuracy: 61.5
GIR: 10.4
Putts per round: 40.1

Pretty compelling stuff.  Shot makers are highly desired here.  With the proliferation of waste areas rather than penal rough or trees off the fairway, players can often get away with less than stellar driving.  Also, the greens here are flatter than most and of course, the more straightforward the putting surface, the less great putters such as Luke Donald have an edge.

The selections
Like Matt Kuchar last week, I have no difficulty at all in leaving alone the favourite here.  Luke Donald is in nothing like the form of last year, despite a recent win at the Transitions Championship.  We had Donald onside there, but his form has fallen away again since.  Donald's impeccable game around the green will help here, but with putting being as insignificant as practically any other course on tour, I really do not see Donald beating the field this week.  That he can compete anywhere is without doubt, but there are so many question marks about his game that he must be overlooked.  Donald finished 8th last year in his only appearance here, but he was in a great run of consistency at that point.

Bubba Watson is next in the betting and I could not disregard him this week.  Bubba has been at the very top of the GIR stats in the last couple of years and of course is in stunning form this year, culminating in a wonderful win at the Masters.  With only a 1pt win on the 2011 champion here, I am effectively saying that I have a Bubba win as a cover bet this week.  I don't want to commit anything more than that as I am unsure how practiced and dialled in he will be after winning his first major.

In a similar way, I have a 1pt win only bet on Justin Rose.  Like Bubba, Rose is one of the very finest ball strikers on tour and his form in recent weeks is impeccable.  We had Rose on side for the Masters and he didn't let us down, finishing 8th.  Those who watched the Masters will know how close Rose was to really challenging for the win.  Several times he moved on to the edge of contention before frittering shots away.  To confirm my belief that this ball striker comes in to the event with a great chance, Rose is number 1 in my ranks for recent greens in regulation in this field.  In the last 4 events, Rose has been 15th, 17th, 1st and 5th in greens hit.  A repeat of that form surely sees him finally contend here.  Rose also is a good scrambler on tour.  Rose has a 17th place here in 2005 but nothing better than 43rd in the last 3 years.  However, I can forgive that given his compelling form coming in to this event.

My headline pick is actually Jason Dufner.  Given the credentials of Rose and Watson above him in the betting, it may seem strange to go strongly on a player who has never won on tour.  However, the reasons to believe in Dufner this week are strong enough for me to want to back him.  I have yet to talk about the fact that this course is a Pete Dye design.  This course has a classical Pete Dye feel, so positives can be taken from strong performances at other Dye designs.  Famously of course, Dufner was pipped in a play-off at last year's PGA by Keegan Bradley.  The course - Atlanta National Golf Club - is a Pete Dye design.  Dufner for 68 holes was the best player on the course.  But there is more than that.  Dufner is one of the few players to have demonstrated his ability to dominate this course consistently.  Dufner was 9th in 2009, 7th in 2010 and 3rd in 2011, which is a stunning progressive form line here.  And, Dufner arguably comes in this week in better form that the previous 3 years.  Dufner is threatening to break through on tour.  A good scrambler with a sound all round game, Dufner is an excellent ball striker who can really dial in when on form.  I also like the fact that Dufner has strong birdie and bogey avoidance stats, which means he will keep the scoreboard ticking over here.  Whilst his lack of wins is a concern, his course form here allied to a sound recent game makes him a very attractive bet this week.

John Senden is a longer price, but has real claims to go well here.  No worse than 43rd in the last 4 years with two of those results inside the top 15, Senden is clearly at home on this course.  Put simply, Senden makes my list based on his ball striknig ability and affinity with the course.  Whilst I said that putting was a negligible factor last year, Senden ranked 123rd for putts per round, which is simply not good enough.  If he can improve that this year (he should), Senden may find himself much closer to things this week.  He is well worth backing this week, especially with the extra place available at Bodog.

At more than twice the price, I like the credentials of Perez here this week.  Perez has a 12th in 2008 to give some confidence.  In addition, I like the fact that he was a strong 12th last time out.  A good scrambler, Perez was 16th in greens hit last time out.  I also like the fact that Perez sits high in the par 4 performance stats, which is a good indicator here also.  Perez is a difficult player to get right (for me at least), but I believe he is worth having onside here as one of the better long shots in the field.