Golf tips - Valero Texas Open Outright tips

Selections
1.5pts EW Cameron Tringale at 60/1 (Betfred, Totesport) Loss 3pts
1.5pts EW Johnson Wagner at 28/1 (Various) Loss 3pts
1pt EW Kevin Stadler at 50/1 (Various) Loss 2pts
0.5ptsEW Scott Piercy at 80/1 (Various) Loss 1pt
0.5pts EW Chris Stroud at 66/1 (Paddy Power, Coral) Loss 1pt

NEWLY ADDED 0.4pts EW Dicky Pride at 150/1 (Take 6 places with Stan James) Loss 0.8pts

Total loss : 10.8pts

Golf tips - Valero Texas form guide http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/04/golf-tips-valero-texas-form-guide.html

The tournament – what to look for

The Valero Texas Open is a tricky event to forecast, given we have a course history that only dates back to 2010.  To add a further layer of complexity, Brendan Steele came here for the first time last year and duly won the event, suggesting that players can learn quickly and compete here.

However, we have a lukewarm favourite here in Matt Kuchar – a good player, but a very infrequent winner and somebody who last time out fell away alarmingly on the last day.  Therefore, great scope exists for our winner coming at a very attractive price.  On the downside, the list of potential winners can not be whittled down greatly, due to the relative infancy of the course as host for this event and the fact that few of the World’s very top players are here.  I posted my form guide at the above link – you can see that few players are in really compelling form entering the vent.

So, given all of that, how do we determine the type of player who will thrive this week?  Lack of course form brings recent form more in to focus.  Kevin Na and Brian Davis are the only players in the last 3 events who have consistently threatened to place.  Players such as Kevin Stadler come in to this event having prospered last time out.  However, of the whole field, only Johnson Wagner has won in his last 10 outings on tour.  There simply is not a lot to grasp in looking at the obvious metrics of course and recent form.

This should not be seen as a negative necessarily however.  Where there is inconsistency, so there is scope to hopefully land a big result.  Often, picking players over 50/1 for an event is an exercise in trying to find a player who might place.  This week, we are looking for players who might win, with the caveat being that we can’t exactly trust our selections as much as we usually might.

Again, we have a second shot golf course this week.  However, my belief is that scrambling ability takes on a greater emphasis here due to the undulations in the greens.  An intelligent golfer is desired around this course, who knows where to miss when he does miss and knows how to keep his discipline during a difficult spell.  This is not just about hitting greens either.  Rather, it is about hitting the right portion of the greens to take difficult 2 putt challenges out of the equation as much as possible.  I want strong players of par 4s here as well to reinforce the second shot golf course theme. 

At first glance, the 7500+ yard course may seem to demand long hitters.  However, long and errant is less desired than not so long but accurate around here if conditions remain good.

The selections

I like the credentials of Cameron Tringale this week who ranks 4^th on my system ratings, which is clearly at odds with the layers this week.  28^th and 5^th in the previous two years, Tringale seems at home on this course.  Tringale ranks 5^th in my recent GIR stats in this field and significantly was 9^th in greens last time out, when he finished 8^th overall.  Tringale also sits in the top 10 in this field for driving accuracy and is putting  slightly better than at this stage last year – a positive, as he found these greens more to his liking than most last year.   I have advised 1.5Ew here because I believe Tringale is dismissed too readily by the layers and we should try to drive home the edge if he happens to get in to contention.  I am not saying I really think he wins this week, but I am saying I want to beef up the bet on a value basis.  If Tringale plays well, there is not a lot ahead of him in the betting to believe he can not have a real tilt at the title. 

This is a home game for Johnson  Wagner on a course that Wagner clearly started to get to grips with last year, when finishing 15^th.  Wagner is a better golfer this year as well and almost went back to back, just failing to add the Humana Challenge to his Sony Open title  in January.  His form has been a little patchy since then.  However, prior to a MC last time out at the Masters, Wagner was 29^th, 4^th and 13^th.  So, clear signs his game is not far from where it needs to be.  The driver behind Wagner’s generally good form this year is his ball striking.  Prior to the Masters, Wagner was 5^th, 2^nd, 17^th, 14^th and 5^th in greens hit.  During that same run of tournaments, Wagner was in the top 10 for driving accuracy 3 times.  In short, Wagner fits the brief here very well.  Wagner is also in the top 40 for scrambling and so really has tools to go well this week.  Of the favourites, I believe he has the best credentials to get it done.

Kevin Stadler surprised me last week.  I did not think his recent game gave him a good shot at challenging at the head of the field.  He finished 4^th.  That he finished 4^th was due to really dialled in iron play.  Stadler finished 2^nd for GIR last week which is a real positive here.  I said above I want players who are able to play intelligently around the course.  Stadler ranks 14^th in Bogey Avoidance and 11^th in scrambling on tour, which, allied to good iron play (Stadler’s par 4 statistics are also strong) could be a potent combination here this week.   I really think he has a chance to challenge here if he does nothing more than continue his form.  Stadler finished a useful 36^th last year.  If we discount a MC on the bentgrass at Houston, Stadler’s form line actually reads 25^th, 24^th, 16^th, 9^th, 7^th and 4^th.  That sort of progressive form is highly compelling reading for a 50/1 shot in an otherwise inconsistent field.

A couple of longer shots to finish, but I think they have a stronger chance than the layers suggest.  Scott Piercy, along with Ryan Palmer, is the course record holder here.  So, no questions about whether he can play the course.  Piercy only finished 30^th in 2010 despite that great round and it is that inconsistency in general which sees him priced up at 80/1 for such events.  However, it is his ability to produce a stunning spell of golf and shoot a stunning score that appeals to me.  Piercy has a 5^th place at the Transitions this year having shot 62 in the final round to place.  In addition, his victory last year at the Renoe Tahoe came from three rounds in the 70s and a 61.  My hope is that in returning to this event as a recent PGA tour winner, Piercy can find his game this week and deliver again.

Chris Stroud has a fairly abject record here and was last post cut in his last event.  Hardly a ringing endorsement then.  However, a closer look at his stats gives more confidence that his chances are good here.  Before the surprise failure last time out, Stroud showed a liking for Bermuda, finishing 5^th, then 9^th and 15h.  Stroud sits 7^th on tour in bogey avoidance, which will be important here.  That’s not all.  Stroud is a good scrambler and has good total putting form this year, with a definite liking for Bermuda.  In short, I would expect Stroud to never be far from the action this week.  A hot round or two good rounds this week could be enough for a win due to his usual recent consistency at other times. 

Dicky Pride has had a much better year than I believed he would.  4 tournaments reading 5^th, 7^thth 20^th and 48^th makes pretty impressive reading.  Against that, Pride has not played for 4 weeks and his form is regressive.  Pride’s improved form this year has been largely driven by his approach game.  He has been 15^th, 27^th and 41^st in greens hit in the last 3 events.  His recent rank for greens is actually among the better players in this field.  As already mentioned, this is a second shot golf course.  Due to a lack of rounds, Pride’s scrambling stats are not readily available for comparison .  However, he sat an impressive 15^th in scrambling on tour after his last outing at the Arnold Palmer invitational and 2^nd in total putting.  In short, a repeat of this sort of form here this week could see our big outsider really go well and threaten the places.  There are much worse 150/1 shots in the field and I had to add him to the staking plan.

Regards

Dave