Outright tips http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/04/golf-tips-valero-texas-open-outright.html
The form guide has proven a recent ally in recent weeks - blind backing the top 5 in the form guide would have yielded a 50/1 Masters winner in Bubba Watson and also would have meant we were on side for Tiger's victory prior to the Masters. There have been other place finishes as well, which shows the strength of backing players who are in demonstrably good form.
Last week is the first instance in which the top 5 in the form guide failed to produce any golfers in the place positions. This week looks tough in the respect that the form of the field in the last 3 strokeplay events is hardly stunning, save the top 2 in the list.
The usual table below then, with supporting thoughts for those players who are dismissed in the beeting, despite their strong form
Brian Davis - Davis has been a staple selection for me his last two events, placing at 125/1 and just failing to place at 50/1 last week. However, the bookies are still happy to take him on. At time of writing, I see only a few bookmakers now have Davis priced up, which may suggest his withdrawal from the event. If not, the 50/1 shot this week is actually in the best form of the field on cold results alone. He (just) misses out in my selections due to an alarmingly bad day with the flatstick on Sunday in what should have been a place finish.
Dicky Pride - another who I gave serious though to. Pride has been in extremely solid form this year, with 2 top 10s. GIR is important on this second shot golf course and Pride's last 4 GIR stats read 25, 15, 27, 41. With impressive recent drvinig stats also, I would not dismiss anybody who wanted to back Pride at big prices. My main concern is 107th in putts last time out, allied to a break for the last few weeks,
Mark Anderson - Perpetually seems to finish around the mid-point of those who made the cut and so always features well on the form guide. Conversely, he is always dismissed by the layers as a probable also-ran. I feel a little better about his chance than usual due to a headline 40th in driving accuracy, 43rd in GIR and 28th in putts last time out. Still, it would surprise me to see a serious challenge for the places this week. Decent top 20 claims and definite Spread bet chances.
Marc Turnesa - Layers still have him among the longest shots in the field and despite some consistency, I find it hard to disagree. A very infrequent performer on the main tour, Turnesa's 15th in GIR in his two appearances this year are countered by the likelihood he will be rusty here and a class below the likely contenders.
Lee Janzen - Texan Janzen is dsmissed by the layers here and that may be a little too presumptuous. Janzen has no form in this event and is clearly not the player he was. However, 14th in GIR last time out and a decent performance with the flatstick makes the 200/1 quote look a little on the long side. Janzen's scrambling stats are less than sensational, so he would have to be exceptional from tee to green to feature.
Jamie Lovemark - Long, not terribly straight and not great around the greens. Pass.
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano - Followers of the European Tour will know this guy is a dangerous player when on form. GFC won back to back in Asia at the end of last year and really did hit a stunning spell of form. He has not reproduced that form yet this year, but if he does, he may have game to challenge here. That said, he is nowhere near top gear right now and is unlikely to be so this week.
Sunghoon Kang - Not good enough with his irons on this 2nd shot golf course. MC far more likely than any sort of challenge this week. Putter could be his saviour.
Regards
Dave
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