Northern Trust Open Tips

The staking plan
1.5pts EW KEvin Na at (40/1 (Various) L 3points
1.5pts EW Aaron Baddeley at 35/1 (Bet365, Boyle) Loss 3 points
2pts Win Phil Mickelson at 10/1 (Paddy Power, Boyle) Loss 2 points
0.5pts EW Jimmy Walker at 100/1 (Various) and 2pts top 20 at 10/3 (Paddy Power, 3/1 Skybet) Result T4th, Profit 12.91 points

0.5pts EW double Luke Donald and Richie Ramsay (Avantha MAsters) at 577/1 (Various) Loss 1pt

Overall profit 3.91pts


The tournament
This week's Northern Trust Open at Riviera gives a real opportunity to back players with some belief that they might get it done.  This tournament often rewards favourite sons from the past, with course knowledge a particular trait here.  I feel able to readily consider many in the field "would be surprise winners" based upon this stat alone.

However, this view is over-simplistic.  This classic 7,300+ yard course is long enough to reward accuracy, but dangerous enough to punish imprecise players also.  One only has to look at the top 5 from 2010 (Stricker, Donald, Dustin, JB Holmes, Romero) to understand that looking for a single type of player here is short-sighted.

That said, we can really strongly look at some key traits in trying to find our winner this week.  First, an affinity to California and Riviera particularly is an advantage.  In terms of the type of golfer we want, the ability to find the putting surface and particularly, the right part of the putting surface consistently, will be key.  A great iron game allied to a sure putting stroke on fast, testing greens will be rewarded.  When a player does miss the green, ability around the green will also be an important feature.  Players who miss greens consistently here will drop shots at more courses than most others.

You may have observed that I am yet to mention driving.  It is less critical here, although length off the tee can really help to open up the par 5s to be attacked in 2.  To offset that, the impeccable record of Donald here shows there are other ways.  An ability to consistently course manage well and maximise on the birdie holes such as the par 5s are the most important aspects this week.

The selections
I have a hard time of it this week, because I strongly see the chances of several players.

Phil Mickelson - Won last week and alive again after a lean time.  Critically, 4th in GIR last week, which is a welcome and very relevant return to form ahead of this event.  2/1/1 here between 2007 and 2009.

Luke Donald -  5 top 13 finishes in 7 starts.  Don't let last year's 2nd round 79 and subsequent MC detract from the stunning record Donald has here.

Kevin Na - 3rd and 10th last 2 years.  Tour winner for the first time last year and better golf than ever since.  5th last week, 12th in scrambling on tour last year and 17th for GIR last week. 8th, 15th, 30th and 5th on last 4 California outings.

Aaron Baddeley - last year's winner and almost a carbon copy of last year coming in to the event.  4th last week and 9th for GIR.  3 top 10s in the last 5 events in California.

Jimmy Walker - 4th last year and 9th last week.  Number 1 in my adjusted California ranks, with 4 top 10s in the last 5 events.

Dustin Johnson - 5th last time out.  3rd here in 2010.  Perfect high long ball flight shape for this event if on song.  Similar to Mickelson, but in much better form generally for the last two years.

Sergio Garcia - Dual winner at the end of last year, with professions this week that he is enjoying his golf like he did when 18 again.  ONe of the best ball-strikers in the game and arguably one of the best scramblers of all time.

Mark Wilson - 3 time winner in the last 13 months, all early in the season.  10th here in 08 and 19th last time out, which featured a best of day -7 final round.  Accurate player who keeps bogeys off the card with strong recent GIR and putting stats.  14th in GIR in winning the Humana Challenge

I could add a few other players, such as Rose, Mahan and Barnes, but the 8 men above represent the most likely for me to feature high up on the final leaderboard come Sunday.  However, I need to whittle the list down a little.

Dustin Johnson moved ominously in to form last week.  However, I am going to leave him out due to lingering concerns over his consistency.  If his irons are even slightly off, then the man who ranked 176th on tour last year for scrambling will find that bogeys continually hamper his progress.  Sergio Garcia is reluctantly overlooked due to doubts over his recent lack of exposure to the course and the fact he hasn't been ready over 4 rounds so far this year.  Mark Wilson is also reluctantly left out, due to some concerns over his consistency a couple of weeks ago, which will be found out here if repeated.

This leaves me with my final 5.  Strange though it may sound, I am going to play Luke Donald in a double only with Richie Ramsay in the Avantha Masters.  I am not convinced he has the game to win here, given the rustiness suggested in European tour appearances this year.  However, at 4/1 place odds, I am happy to attempt a double up with Ramsay, who also seems well able to place in India.  The place terms offer effective odds greater than 40/1, which feels like an outstanding price for this bet.  Both certainly can win too and I am hopeful that there is some hope/excitement come Sunday.

Phil is win only.  At 10/1, I do not trust he is a a shoe-in for a place.  He either gets it done or not this week.  I do not see much middle ground from him.

Walker, despite the recent good finish and impeccable Califronia credentials, has most to find to win here.  I am happy with the dual play advised as the top 20 offers a nice opportunity to recoup losses elsewhere should they arise.

Kevin Na and Aaron Baddeley are irresistible for me this week and are backed accordingly.