Avantha Masters tips

The Staking Plan
1.5pts EW Richie Ramsay at 33/1 (Various, but take the 6 places at Ladbrokes)

1pt EW Lorenzo Gagli at 60/1 (SportingBet, SkyBet, Bet365)

0.75pts EW Felipe Aguilar at (Various, but take the 6 places at Ladbrokes)

0.2pts EW Anirban Lahiri 1st round leader at 200/1 (BetVictor, 150/1 Various)

1pt Chowrasia to finish top 10 at 6/1 (Various)


For a brief synopsis of last week's result (near miss) on the European tour, please click on this link http://onebettips.blogspot.com/2012/02/dubai-desert-classic-tips.html



The Tournament
This years Avantha Masters throws up an interesting challenge in trying to find a likely winner.

Based in Delhi, the tournament has only been part of the European Tour for the last three years and has only been played on this course in 2010 and 2011.

The remit for prospering on this Arnold Palmer design is accuracy.  At a time of year when winds are likely, this tree-lined course demands accuracy and the ability to hit fairways and greens.

The course is relatively modest in length by today's standards, with 4 par 3s under 200 yards and 4 par 5s reachable in 2.  Ball-strikers are likely to thrive here.  Indeed, I place an ability to find the right level of the green above an ability to hole putts this week.

The selections
A quick glance at the stats and you see that Chowrasia has won 2 of the 3 editions of this event in 2009 and here last year.  In addition to that, he seems bullish ahead of his title defence and happy with his game.  However, I question his ability to get it done this year, given the class of the field around him.  That he may go well is distinctly possible, but to win it again would be quite a feat.  I like the top 10 play here, as it covers a solid week from Chowrasia, but insures against the likelihood of other players getting it done however Chowrasia plays.

Richie Ramsay is my strongest play this week.  His game is all about control.  On tour last year, Ramsay was 2nd in driving accuracy and 7th in greens hit.  Despite a fairly ordinary start to 2012, his natural game should see him finish well up the keaderboard come Sunday.  In considering tree-lined courses, Ramsay finished an eye-catching 3rd behind Garcia and Jimenez at Valderrama last year after a stunning first round 65.  Ranked first last week for driving accuracy, Ramsay only needs to find a little more with his irons and he will go extremely close this week.

Lorenzo Gagli made great strides on tour last year, with a string of headline finishes.  This year has started in a more subdued fashion, with two MCs in the last two events.  However, I am willing to overlook that as the credentials of Gagli for this type of golf course are excellent.  Gagli is in a similar mould to Ramsay; he averaged 8th in driving accuracy and 2nd in GIR on tour last year and again, has the control required to challenge this week.  I also note a very similar start last year to this before a 5th at the Sicilian Open, so the MC of last week is not necessarily definitive.  One thing I am sure of is that 60/1 will not be available for Gagli on many other occasions this year if he starts to find his groove.

Felipe Aguilar is an interesting option for this event.  A player with some history of success in Asia, his chances of success always increase when the possibility of windy conditions arise.  Aguilar had a great spell last year, probably the highlight of which was a T3rd at the Alfred Dunhill behind Hoey and McIlroy.  A solid but unspectacular 36th here last year, I believe that he really has the game to compete here this week and should be much shorter than 80/1.

Finally, I am willing to have a play on Lahiri in the first round leader market.  This is far from a random choice, as Lahiri time and again produces the boom/bust type of golf that lends itself more to a 1st round leader pick than an outright win in this class of field.  A quick glance at Lahiri's best results in 2011 (and earlier) support thid notion and on many occasions, it is with the freedom of playing in the 1st round thaty his best effort is produced.  Worth a play.


Players I omitted this week
Joost Luiten is a worthy favourite, having won his first tour event at the end of last year and started this year in solid if unspectacular fashion.  I might have picked him but for express concerns by the player himself that his irons were off last week.  Luiten is not the greatest of putters, but if on song, his ball-striking can certainly see him win this event.  However, there are enough questions for me to want to side with Ramsay and Gagli at bigger prices.

Gregory Havret would have been in my picks had he been 28/1.  It is as simple as that really.  Havret is a little too inconsistent for me to trust that he will turn up this week, although a strong T24th last week, a 6th at Valderram and real ball-striking ability make him an obvious candidate for the title.  I also have to dismiss Donaldson this week as he does not finish events off as well as I would need to trust a 20/1 quote.  He has a real chance here, if he can find the swagger required to beat the field.  Too often, Donaldson has a very good tounrmanet but not a stellar one.  His 10th last week is the perfect example.  I want to see that more of that edge to his game before I touch 20/1 quotes. Phil Mickelson was 25/1 last week............

A little look further down and I see John Daly extends his flirtation with the European tour.  Daly is in decent form and I noted a 2nd place at an Arnold Palmer designed track aat the 2009 Italian Open.  However, I must overlook him due to the call for accuracy over force here.

Jaidee and Singh, for their strengths in this part of the world and Wattel for his continued fine form were also considered but omitted.  In truth, we have a field here filled with players capable of winning, but without the consistency to sustain a high world ranking.  That is why the favourite is 18/1 and the field is relatively bunched in price.  Ramsay and Gagli are amongst the very best in this field in terms of consistent delivery on the tour and represent the more likely players (with Luiten) to feature.