Outright selections
1.5pts EW Chris Wood at 25/1 (Various)
1pt EW Anthony Wall at 35/1 (Various)
1pt EW Ignacio Garrido at 55/1 (Bet365)
0.5pts EW Steven O'Hara at 175/1 (SkyBet, 150/1 various)
0.5pts EW Adam Gee at 300/1 (Various)
0.3pts EW Chris Wood/Hunter Mahan double at 389/1 (BlueSq, 344/1 various)
A brief synopsis of my selections for this event, which starts on Wednesday.
Diamond Country Club has hosted the last two Austrian Opens prior to this year and is again used in 2012, albeit under the new and distinctly unappealing banner of the Lyoness Open. Looking at past trends for the last two years, we see the importance clearly of finding greens and fairways. Good putters will thrive here on relatively good greens, but the trick to this course is about consistently finding the short stuff.
This year, with damp conditions and the threat of some adverse weather during the week, this near 7,400 yard course may play tough for some of the tour's shorter hitters. Therefore, I believe the brief is slightly different to usual desired attributes. I want players who trend well in total driving (distance and accuracy) and control their irons consistently.
My final point is a lesser one over 4 days, but certainly can be a factor early on day 1. If looking to trade on Betfair or looking at 1st round leader bets, it may pay to select players who start early on Wednesday from the 10th tee. Players starting on 10, play the following hole ranks in their first 6 holes: 17, 8, 15, 16, 6, 11. It gets tougher after that and the 5 hole stretch from 16 through 2 is the toughest on the course, but I would rather have a player onside who has got their rhythm and a decent start before facing this challenge. I have backed Gee, O'Hara and Wood on Betfair personally with a view to trading before the 16th hole (thier 7th). All 3 start early, all 3 start on the 10th and all 3 have chances in my view here, as my preview below will detail.
So, given it is Tuesday night and I am neglecting my PGA obligations to date, I am going to move straight to my selections.
Chris Wood finally breaks his duck this week, or so my system says. In this quality of field, Wood's solid recent tour-wide stats of around 40th for driving distance, accuracy and GIR is both solid and also better than the great majority of this field. With a fair wind, Wood would have two titles to his name already this season, having produced a stunning final round in Sicily, which was a shot shy of Olesen's debut winning total. In the BMW international Open, Wood narrowly missed the play-off having looked the winner at various stages of the final round. The number of recent first time winners (Olesen, Donaldson, Weisberger, Willett) should give Wood confidence that he can be next. He may not get a better chance than this. I have also added a small double with Wood and Mahan. I really do think that Wood should go well here. He starts on the easier holes and that should hopefully give him the springboard to get involved and stay involved. As I will summarise with my Canadian Open preview, I am equally bullish about the chances for Hunter Mahan so am happy to play a small double.
Anthony Wall has started to threaten leaderboards again after a pretty lean spell in the last couple of years. In the last 10 events, wall has been in the top 6 3 times, the highlight of which was a recent T2nd behind Jamie Donaldson in the Irish Open. I love tournaments where my top system picks are not at the head of the betting and Wall is 2nd in my ranks this week. While Olesen and Weisberger have ability in abundance, they are far from reliable market leaders. Wall does not hit the ball as far as the biggest hitters, but he is not quite short either. However, Wall makes the team due to his ball striking prowess. A repeat of his -14 at the Irish Open will see him go very close this week.
Ignacio Garrido is a big box ticker for this event in terms of the photo-fit player we want here. The concern as usual is whether Garrido has the fitness to contend over 4 days. I am very happy to take the chance at 55/1. Garrido's finishes are not exactly stellar this year, although 4 finishes between 9th and 11th (including last time out, 11th at the Scottish Open) shows that he can still perform very solidly on tour. It is 9 years now since Garrido last prevailed, but I really believe he can contend this week. 11th last time out as mentioned, Garrido enters this week in good form. Garrido has good season long stats for greens hit and driving accuracy and he ranks the best in my recent form ranks for these two metrics. Expect Garrido to play very solidly this week, with one big round potentially pushing him right in to contention.
Some longer shots to finish. Steve O'Hara missed the cut here last year, which initially is a negative of course. However, O'Hara's ball striking in recent weeks is his best of the season and he can go close if he repeats that form here. In my recent form ranks on tour, O'Hara ranks 37th for driving distance, 33rd for accuracy and 16th for greens in regulation. 175/1 is massive and I a more than happy to chance that O'Hara can trouble the places this week.
Adam Gee is way out of left field, but I am basically playing that this 300/1 shot can dial in with his irons and contend. Gee's season long stats are impressive for driving distance and GIR, with a none too bad driving accuracy stat either. Often let down by his putting, I am playing here that Gee finds his share of greens, but also is aided by both a true putting challenge on fine greens but also a slower challenge, with the moisture slowing the surface and helping to reduce the edge of the great putters.
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
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