OneBet Racing Selections 18th May

18th May

Aintree
17.20 With Grace 13/2  - 1pt Win (2nd) (Onebet Longshot Glenora Gale 25/1 - 1pt e/w) placed +5.25PTS
17.55 Call Back 7/1 - 1.5pts e/w (2nd)
18.30 Tara Royal 9/2 - 2pt Win
19.05 Themilanhorse 8/1 - 1pt e/w placed +2PTS
19.40 Turko 6/4 - 3pt Win NR
20.10 Howizee 7/1 - 2pt Win LOST -2PTS
20.45 Tiny Tenor 14/1 - 1pt e/w placed  +2.8PTS

Meeting Total: +5.05 PTS


Newmarket
14.20 Sharaarah 9/2 - 1pt Win
14.50 Twelve Strings 4/1 - 2pt Win
15.20 Threes Grand 9/1 - 1pt ew
15.55 Silken Thought 12/1 - 1pt ew

Meeting Total: -6PTS


Newbury
13.40 Walter White 12/1 - 1pt ew
14.10 Firdaws 11/4 - 2pt Win
14.40 Broughton Sands 9/1 1pt ew
15.10 Ishi Honest 13/2 - 1pt Win
15.45 Whipcrackaway 12/1 -1pt ew
16.20 Leathal Force 9/2 - 1pt Win (OneBet Longshot Bayleyf 25/1 0.75Pts ew)
16.55 Trend Line 5/1 - 1pt Win

Meeting Total:-12.5PTS

Racing Selections 17th May

17th May


Perth
14.20 Malin Bay - 2pt Win LOST -2PTs
14.50 Lord Redsgirth - 1/2  & 15.20 Makhzoon 11/8 - Double - 3pt Win - LOST -3PTS
15.55 Sotovik 9/2 - 2pt Win - LOST - 2PTS
16.30 Boruler 11/4 - 2pt Win LOST - 2PTS
17.05 Endeavor 9/1 - 1pt e/w LOST - 2PTS
17.40 Shanen 5/2 - 2pt Win WON +5PTS

Meeting Total: -6PTS


Ludlow
17.30 Argaum 3/1 - 2pt Win LOST - 2PTS
18.05 Sporting Boy 9/2 - 1pt Win WON+4.5PTS
18.40 Round Tom 11/1 - 1pt e/w LOST -2PTS
19.15 Island Life 85/40 - 2pt Win WON@9/4 +4.5PTS
19.45 Balding Banker 8/1 - 1pt e/w LOST-2PTS
20.15 Gap of Dunloe 15/2 - 1pt e/w LOST - 2PTS
20.45 Vicsaflia 5/1- 1pt Win LOST - 1PT

Meeting Total: 0


Daily Total: -6PTS

Golf tips - Volvo World Match Play Selections

Golf tips - Volvo World Match Play Selections


Selection 1.5pts EW Ian Poulter 10/1 (Various)  Loss 3pts

Before I get in to any detail on this event, I want to make a point clear: the value in betting on this tournament is truly awful.  Let me explain what I mean.

To win this event, a player has to play two group games and then win his last 16, last 8, last 4 and final match to prevail.  So, 6 matches.  I am going to hypothesise.  Let's assume I back a player that is 3/4 odds for all matches they play.  In reality, no player will be this short in the odds as an average over the 6 matches, but it explains an important philosophy.

The combined odds of a player winning all 6 of their matches at odds of 3/4?  27.7/1.  This is a rough guide, but it will do to demonstrate the point.  The best player in the event is over 27/1 to win each of their matches as a 6-fold accumulator.

There are 24 players in the field of which the top 13 in the betting (Kaymer down to Paul Lawrie) are priced below 27/1.  Wow.  The bookies really have it sewn up this week.  Of course, those below Lawrie will not receive much of the betting and so the bookies are set to print money this weekend.

It is possible to win only 5 games and prevail (exceptionally, like Poulter last year, you can draw your first two group games and still triumph but that is too remote a possibility to consider).  However, again using 3/4 odds, that is still 15/1, which is better odds than the top 8 in the field.

I made a mistake at WGC Matchplay event earlier in the year for this reason and the value was better there. My strong recommendation is that you keep your betting very light in such formats or do not bet at all.  The only bets I would entertain as potentially being good value options are the matchbets.  Here also I would exercise caution as winning an 18 hole matchplay bet is within the compass of any player in this field.

OK, I hope you heeded my warning and will do so in the future.

I feel compelled to offer you something here, hence the Poulter bet.  In reality I will strongly consider my position if we have effectively a place money play-off in the last 8.  the chart below is a hypothetical walkthrough of what will happen here.  Note, I spent no time on this and do not want to debate whether Grace edges Bjorn or Lawrie edges Villegas.  However, what I do want to do is hopefully show the paths each of the favourites has to winning this week.

I will consider the favourite in each group and their path.

Ballesteros group - Kaymer.  Tough game with Cabrera-Bello potentially (friends and RCB in good form), but should beat Finch.  After that a theoretical game awaits with Karlsson, which may be a really tough match.  Kaymer finished 3rd here last year, but has a tough time of it to repeat that feat this year.  7/1 is close to insane for him this week.  To make 0.75pt profit, he would have to get past RCB, Karlsson (or Mcdowell potentially) and Poulter and I just do not fancy him on current form.

Player group - Poulter has a tough start against John Senden.  Senden will like the conditions here and has a history of strong results on bentgrass surfaces.  I am backing Poulter's tenacity though, which took him to victory after surviving several ultra-tight matches last year.  His record in the Ryder Cup is impeccable also.  In short, Poulter is arguably the best competitor in the world in this format.  That is perhaps a little strong, but there is actually nobody I would trust more to bring home a desperately needed point on either side later this year.  I expect Poulter to win a tight game with Senden and then expose the recent frailties in Tom Le wis' game. After that, I would favour him to beat Kaymer (potentially).  Justin Rose potentially awaits in the last 8, in what is effectively a play-off for profit.  I may consider a covering strategy at this time.  Poulter has a very decent draw here.

McCormack group - Snedeker is the favourite in the book, but I struggle to call this group.  Bjorn famously beat Woods last year and Branden Grace will like this course, especially with 4 driveable par 4s for the big hitting South African to aim at.  The winner of this group could face a winnable clash with Paul Lawrie/Villegas, but the group is so tough to call that a bet can not be taken.

Gabrielsson group - Robert Rock is the main threat to Justin Rose here, but on the bent surfaces he loves, he must think he can progress as the group winner.  Darren Clarke has been abject since winning the Open last year.  My concern with Rose is that to date, Matchplay has not really been a format he has found an affinity with.  If he faces a golfing animal such as Poulter in the last 8, I think he will struggle to progress.

Larson group - Graeme McDowell has to negotiate the useful JBE Kruger and the sporadically world class Robert Karlsson to win this group.  The group winner may face ardent home support for Cabera-Bello and then Garcia/Quiros to reach the semi finals.  if seedings work out, the semi-finals are no easier, with Schwartzel/Hanson and then maybe Poulter (I hope) in opposition.  For a man who is not in stellar form, 14/1 to get through those matches unscathed is shocking value.

Woosnam group - Garcia should be fancied to edge Quiros (or destroy him, if Quiros is having an off day) and Hiratsuka surely likely goes home early.  A potentitally tough game with Senden awaits, with the difficult McDowell/Charl/Poulter route to glory.  If he gets momentum from the home crowd, he could be unstoppable, but I simply can not touch the 10/1 quotes in finding out.

Norman group - Hanson must be favoured to top the group ahead of a toss up between Lawrie and Villegas.  Lawrie likes Spain but has been a little out of sorts of late.  Villegas also has shown only glimpses of his ability in recent times.  Hanson is probably the seed with the best route to the last 8, with the runner up from the McCormack group awaiting in the last 16.  I was close to picking Hanson, but am not convinced that he beats Schwartzel in the last 8, if Schwartzel has two good days behind him.

Palmer group - A rested but previously out of sorts Schwartzel has it really tough here against Goosen and Colsaerts.  If he does get through, Robert Rock (or far more likely Rose rather than Clarke as alternative) is tough as is Hanson/Garcia/Poulter.  I can not trust that he fires well enough all 6 days to win right now, although fast bentgrass is where he will do if anywhere.

In summary, a bit of a lottery, with all seeds vulnerable to an off day and either an early exit or a runners up group finish, which will throw up a mouth-watering last 16 clash.  I believe Poulter will win his group.  If he does, I would be surprised to see him lose to Kaymer right now and then would be surprised to see Rose outlast him.  I just believe he has the best place chances here (over Hanson) and believe that once close, he will be the favourite to go on and win.

I may advise some matchbets later, but may decide discretion is the best play this week.

Regards

Dave

Golf Tips - Byron Nelson Outright Selections

Golf Tips - Byron Nelson Outright Selections


2pt win Adam Scott at 13/1 (Bet365, Stan James) Loss 2pts
1pt EW Brian Davis at 40/1 (Various, but take 6 places with Bodog) Loss 2pts
1.5pts EW Louis Oosthuizen at 25/1 (Various) Loss 3pts
1pt EW Boo Weekley at 100/1 (Various, but take 6 places with Bodog) Loss 2pts

Total loss 9pts


Midpoint selections http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/golf-tips-byron-nelson-championship_19.html
Byron Nelson form guide - http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/golf-tips-byron-nelson-championship.html


The course
TPC Four Seasons has been the host course to this event since 1986, although Cottonwood Valley Course was used for one of the rounds between 1994 and 2007.  The strength of the winds this week will play a major role in determining where the winning score is likely to fall.  In benign conditions, Rory Sabbatini won with a score of -19 in 2009.  However, last year the course ranked 5th hardest on tour, with Keegan Bradley edging Ryan Palmer in a play-off.  Winds caused only 5 players to be under par last year and is set to test players again this week.

Picking our winner this week is a difficult task.  The top 2 players last year averaged in the top 10 for driving distance.  However, nobody else did so.  None of the top 13 featured in the top 10 for driving accuracy and only 2 of the top 20 were in the top 10 greens hit/putts per round.  Our winner this week is likely to be a solid all rounder, who is able to keep bogeys off his card better than most and deal well with the inevitable setbacks when they do occur.  This heightens the importance of scrambling - our winner will miss plenty of greens this week, but must recover well when this does occur.  An ability to play wind is also of course an advantage and players with Texas links may also have a distinct edge here.  Finally, players who can play Bentgrass are desired.  Putting is not critical, but the requirement to consistently hole out and take chances when they do arise should not be under-estimated here.  Although the stats last year do not entirely back this up, I want players who are straight this week.  The fairways are tree-lined and if the wind does get up, I want to know that my players are better than most at finding fairways.

Phil Mickelson returns to this event for the first time since 2007 and heads the betting for the event, ahead of 2008 winner Adam Scott, Players Champion and World No.5 Matt Kuchar and defending champion Keegan Bradley.  Day, Dufner, Oosthuizen, Pettersson and Els are up next, highlighting that a decent field has assembled here.  All four previous champions (Bradley, Day, Sabbatini and Scott) tee up here too.

My selections
Of the leading contenders mentioned, I have to leave Mickelson this week.  Phil won here in the 90s and was 3rd in 2007.  It is never easy to leave Phil out of course, especially as his year has been so strong to date.  A 4th (Masters) and 3rd (Shell Houston - Texas) this season on bentgrass confirm what we already know.  However, Phil's irons were off last week, which does not fit the bill here.  I can not trust him at 11/1, especially with no wins in the event for 16 years.  I am also going to leave Kuchar.  After a huge win, it will take a lot for Kuchar to fire again this week and, odd though it may be to say this after win, I still do not think he wins enough to be trusted here at quotes of 14/1.  His 6th here last year serves as warning that he can get the job done, but I do not see any value in the bet this week.

Adam Scott loves Texas, with 3 of his 4 PGA wins in the state, including here in 2008.  Also, he tops the recent form guide coming in to the event as shown in my earlier blog post (link above).  Scott played well last week and outside of the Masters, has been 9th, 1st and 11th in greens hit this season.  Indeed, Scott tops my GIR ranking this week coming in to the event.  Scott actually missed the cut last time out here in 2009, but won and was 3rd in the 2 attempts prior to that.  Scott is the player I consider most likely to win this week and I am happy to have him win only.

As mentioned in my form guide, Brian Davis is in great form right now, with a string of solid results.  My form guide thoughts really underline why he deserves to be added here - With form of 4, 4, 13, 39, 9, 25, the last of which was in a much better field at the Players, Davis is worthy of serious respect on tour right now.  Within that run of good form are a 4th and 13th in Texas, so some state positives as well.  Add also that his last two events on Bentgrass - 4th and 9th from the run above - are strong and Davis ticks a lot of boxes, even at 40/1.  A final positive is that if we ignore the MC in both 2011 and 2010, Davis finished 2nd here in 2010.  He shot -17 that week, but a more gritty effort is likely to be required to prevail this time around.  I could not deter anybody from backing Davis this week.


Louis Oosthuizen is among the best players in World golf right now.  That we can still get 25/1 is excellent value in my eyes.  A missed cut at Sawgrass does not concern me.  Clearly, the track is still something of an enigma for him (and Rory) and I can happily overlook this blip when the 3 results prior to that read 3, 2, 1.  I always consider Oosthuizen when bentgrass greens are in use, because Oosthuizen thrives on the surface.  A winner on bentgrass in South Africa at the start of the year, Louis has since finished 3rd (In Texas and leading by 3 going in to the final round) and 2nd (Masters, play-off defeat).  Put simply, he loves the surface.  But that is not all.  Oosthuizen's scrambling stats are impeccable this year.  An accurate driver when playing well, who makes fewer bogeys than most and can really dial in with his iron play, I see Oosthuizen as having a big say this week. My final positive is that Bradley and Day won in the last 2 years - both proven quality players, both first-timers at the event.  If we are looking for the classiest first-timer in 2012, Oosthuizen is the man and by some distance.

My final pick is a difficult call.  I have Pettersson, Dufner, Weekly, Blake Adams and Leishman in mind.  I am going to settle on Weekley, who again was summarised in my form guide -I am surprised to see Boo Weekley at 100/1 this week.  He was going off at 40/1 as recently as 3 weeks ago, since which time he withdrew after 25 holes of the Texas Open and rejected his sponsors invite for the Zurich.  The withdrawal was illness rather than injury and so, in this quality of field, I believe 100/1 to be overly dismissive.  Boo was 14th and 6th in his last two events.....both in Texas, with the 13th place on Bentgrass.  We were onside with Boo when he finished 6th - after 13 holes of round 4, he still had an outside shot at the title but then proceeded to drop 4 shots in 5 holes and miss a place by a shot.  Clearly, his form is good and as long as he has practiced enough, he has claims here.  Boo has been in the top 40 for greens hit in his last 6 events (no surprise) and has been putting OK more often than not recently too (a definite surprise).  Notably, Weekley was 31st in putts per round on his only outing on Bentgrass and that is one of his best efforts in the last 2 years on tour.  I really do expect a decent showing from Boo this week.  


This is a tough week in many respects and players may find they have the unlucky side of the draw from a weather perspective, which limits their chances.  I am happy to settle with the 4 players mentioned and "only" 9 points staked


Regards


Dave (OneBet)

Golf tips - Byron Nelson Championship form guide

Byron Nelson Championship form guide


Byron Nelson outright selections - http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/golf-tips-byron-nelson-outright.html
Midpoint selections http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/golf-tips-byron-nelson-championship_19.html


Last week, we highlighted the strength of the field, with no less than 23 players averaging 30th or better for their last 3 events and four players averaging better than 10th.  This week we see a much weaker field.  Louis Oosthuizen missed the cut last time out and is 7th in our averages for the last 3 events, averaging just below 30 (86+1+2).

Keegan Bradley prevailed last year, to give a hint of what was to come for one of the better players now on tour.  However, his form before the event gave no hint that a win was close.  Ryan Palmer was edged in a play-off last year and had only a 31st the week before and a MC prior to that.  Joe Ogilvie and Ryu Imada were T3 and similarly, their form was unheralded coming in to the event.  Of the top 5, only Jason Day was in form; his 5th here was part of a run of 5 top 10 finishes in 6 events.

Given the previous findings, recent form is irrelevant then?  This is of course not enitely true, but it is fair to say that the premium on ball-strikers who enter the event in clear form is less significant here.

TPC four Seasons ranked 5th on tour last year (or 4th if you use my personal ranking approach).  the weather is expected to be a little variable again this year and so clearly, we are looking for players who can control their game and keep big numbers off the card.  Recent form can potentially mask the pre-requisite of finding tough players who can plot their way around the course and deal well with the inevitable dropped shots that come.  However, there is always value in looking at the form guide, to see what potential does exist for finding high priced players who are dismissed by the layers and in some decent form.

As always, form versus betting position below, with thoughts on a few players who are lower in the betting than their form suggests beneath the table.

Brian Davis - I mention Davis every week and have backed him twice also, but Davis' form has been strong for a number of events now.  With form of 4, 4, 13, 39, 9, 25 ,the last of which was in a much better field at the Players, Davis is worthy of serious respect on tour right now.  Within that run of good form are a 4th and 13th in Texas, so some state positives as well.  Add also that his last two events on Bentgrass - 4th and 9th from the run above - are strong and Davis ticks a lot of boxes, even at 40/1.  A final positive is that if we ignore the MC in both 2011 and 2010, Davis finished 2nd here in 2009.  He shot -17 that week, but a more gritty effort is likely to be required to prevail this time around.  I could not deter anybody from backing Davis this week.

Boo Weekley - I am surprised to see Boo Weekley at 100/1 this week.  He was going off at 40/1 as recently as 3 weeks ago, since which time he withdrew after 25 holes of the Texas Open and rejected his sponsors invite for the Zurich.  The withdrawal was illness rather than injury and so, in this quality of field, I believe 100/1 to be overly dismissive.  Boo was 14th and 6th in his last two events.....both in Texas, with the 13th place on Bentgrass.  We were onside with Boo when he finished 6th - after 13 holes, he still had an outside shot at the title but then proceeded to drop 4 shots in 5 holes and miss a place by a shot.  Clearly, his form is decent and as long as he has practiced enough, he has claims here.  Boo has been in the top 40 for greens hit in his last 6 events (no surprise) and has been putting OK more often than not recently too (a definite surprise).  I am tempted again to back Boo.

Bob Estes - Estes can putt on bentgrass, as last year's 2rd place at the Greenbrier shows (Estes was 3rd in putts per round that day).  His form is coming round too, with 24th, 4th, MC and 15th in his last 4 outings.  150/1 is interesting this week, although anybody getting too excited needs to heed this cautionary note: Estes has missed 5 straight cuts in this event, the last 4 of which were on this course only.

David Mathis is 150/1 with Stan James, but generally 100s elsewhere.  80th here in 2011 and 39th in 2009 is not much to shout about, but recent form has been useful, with 3 top 20s in his last 4 outings.  The concern concern I have with Mathis is that his 3 top 20s have been on Bermudagrass, with the failure coming on Bentgrass greens.  I can leave him alone this week, although his generally good form makes him an option not without appeal.

Graham Delaet will put in a big week soon.  At 100/1, he was in with a genuine chance of landing the Puerto Rico Open for us earlier in the season but faded on the back 9, eventually finishing 9th.  Since then, a 4th place at the Zurich Classic further confirmed his credentials on tour.  However, Delaet's only display on Bentgrass this season also produced his worst putting performance versus the field of the season.  Although Delaet's length off the tee can be an advantage here, with driving accuracy less critical (none of the top 13 of last year featured in the top 10 in this stat), my doubts over his ability to putt well on the greens is enough for me to not make the hero call on him this week.

If you have any questions about this data, please contact me on twitter (link at the top of the blog) or by posting a comment below

Regards

Dave (OneBet)

Racing Selections 15th May

15th May

Hereford 
13.50 Likearollingstone 16/1 - 1pt e/w placed +2.2PTS
14.20 Court in Session 7/4 - 2pt Win WON +3.5 PTS
14.50 Nicky Nutjob 5/1 - 1pt Win Lost - 1PT
15.20 Themanfromfraam 11/4 - 2pt Win WON +5.5PTS
15.50 Dazzling Rita 2/1 - 2pt Win Lost -2PTS
16.20 Chapel House 7/2 - 2pt Win NR
16.50 Earcomesthedream 11/2 - 1pt Win  WON (Deadheat) +2.75PTS
17.20 Cruise in Style 9/2 - 2pt Win LOST -2PTS

Meeting Total:+8.95PTS


Killarney 
17.30 His Excellency 5/1 - 2pt Win WON @7/1 (Rule 4 10p) +12.6PTS
18.00 William Wordsworth 4/1 - 2pt Win LOST -2PTS
18.30 Pride of the Arctic 7/1 - 1pt e/w LOST-2PTS

Meeting Total: +8.6PTS


Southwell
17.40 Pistol Basc 4/1 - 2pt Win LOST -2PTS
18.10 Stormhoek 4/1 - 2pt Win LOST -2PTS
18.40 Fabalu 11/2 - 2pt Win (2nd)LOST -2PTS
19.10 Rash Move 11/4 2pt Win (2nd) LOST -2PTS
19.40 Theodore Lamb 9/2 - 2pt Win (3rd) LOST - 2PTS
20.10 Cape Express 2/1 NB - 3pt Win WON@11/4+8.25PTS
20.40 Shuh Shu Gah 13/8 NAP - 3pt Win LOST-3PTS

Meeting Total:-4.75PTS


Daily Total:+12.8PTS

Racing Selections 13th May

13th May

Uttoxeter
14.00 Shoegazer 6/4 - 3Pt Win -3PTS
15.00 Stagecoach Jasper 5/1 - 1pt Win -1PT
16.30 Tuskar Rock 11/4 - 2pt Win - 2PTS (OneBet Longshot 28/1 0.5Pts e/w Gallick Dawn (William Hills) - 1PT

Meeting Total: - 7PTS