1pt EW Lee Slattery at 100/1 (Various)
0.5pt EW Tommy Fleetwood at 175/1 (Bet365)
1.5pt EW Anders Hansen at 33/1 (Various)
1pt EW Romain Wattel at 35/1 (Stan James 888 Sport)
Proofing to Secret Betting Club since January 12th 2012
Wednesday, 5 September 2012
Golf tips - BMW Championship outright selections
BMW Championship Selections
1pt EW Louis Oosthuizen at 25/1 (Various)
2pt EW Jason Dufner at 25/1 (Various)
0.75pt EW Ryan Moore 1st round leader at 66/1 (Various)
Short weeks are not good fun when trying to pull these tips together..........
No point in writing a novel this week. So, simply, we arrive at a course with precious little course form to go on. The course is plenty long enough, but the interesting aspect for me is the relatively small greens here. The rough does not seem to be the most penal, but ball strikers who can dial in with their approach shots are greatly desired this week. Scrambling will be more of a factor this week, as players will be hitting plenty of long irons in to small targets and greens will inevitably be missed.
So, to my thoughts/selections
Rory is rejected for this reason. Rory's last 5 wins have been followed by 103rd, 51st, 3rd, 35th and 26th after round 1 of the following tournament 3rd was in Dubai, an event he had to win to have a chance of catching Luke Donald in the race - he eventually finished 11th, his first non-top 6 in 5 events. So, I personally am going to be brave and lay Rory on the exchanges and hope he meanders again on Thursday. I also think the high drama of watching anxiously as Louis Oosthuizen just missed his putt to force a play-off may leave him slightly flat coming in here. Finally, good scrambling and great putting stats last week compensated for a pretty average approach game (37th in GIR, 30th in proximity to the hole). I am not convinced he will get away with less than perfect irons this week, although his high, long and towering irons will be well suited to this challenge if he is dialled in.
Tiger is interesting, because his form last week ticks boxes for my photo fit golfer this week. 4th in driving distance and a useful enough 20th in accuracy, 2nd in greens, 12th in strokes gained putting and 2nd in scrambling is highly compelling stuff from Tiger. Tiger was also 19th in proximity to the hole last week, although approaches over 200 yards (62nd) and over 100 yards (28th) is not ideal for the lengthy Crooked Stick this week. Tiger has gone toe to toe with Rory recently at the PGA and here and Rory has won both times. However, Tiger was closing in last time out rather than seeing Rory waltz off in to the distance. I am really struggling to leave Tiger alone, but just will, because I think the price is probably about fair. My slight nagging doubt is that he was heavily involved in the late Monday finish and has not yet had two really dialled in weeks with his approach game all year. After a top 10 GIR performance, he has been no better than 23rd the following week in that stat. I just leave him here.
Tiger and Rory, when paired together at the Barclays, failed to really sparkle. Reason if you are wavering to exercise caution I feel.
Jason Dufner did not putt well enough to win last week and then did not avoid double and triple bogeys enough over the weekend to threaten a place (92nd in bogey avoidance last week). But..........he was 5th in proximity to the hole, 5th in approaches over 200 yards and 11th in greens hit as well as 7th in scrambling. So, hidden in among the headline stats is a player who should find he can fire at Crooked Stick. Dufner is holding steady at 25s and is now joint 6th favourite. It seems the market has lost faith in Dufner more than I have. Sorry folks, but he makes my team again.
I have ignored my system for Rory and it is telling me that if not Rory, I should back Oosthuizen. There is still some 25s out there and Louis was sensational approaching the green and in putting. Louis showed when winning in Malaysia straight after the Masters that he can dust himself down and perform the following week. Oosthuizen is a spells players, who gets hot for a time before then gently ebbing away from the sharp end. So, I am going to back that the run continues. In a 70 man field, several of whom will have a pressure to make the Tour Championship final event when it comes to the final round, Louis will be freer than most to just go for the prize. Let's play him here.
My final play this week is on Ryan Moore. In 2010, Moore dialled in for the FedExCup climax, lying 2nd after day 1 of this event and finishing 3rd, before following up with 9th at East Lake. In 2011, Moore was 16th in this event, which was not quite enough to qualify for East Lake. Moore sits 35th in the FedEx cup race and needs to follow up his strong 10th last week with another good display to make East Lake. 11th in GIR last week and 3rd in proximity to the hole, Moore's success or otherwise will depend on whether his scrambling can improve this week. 80/1 is a good price to find out whether he does or not. My final question is whether outright or 1st round leader is the best way to go. Since start 2010, he has had 8 top 5s. In the same period 10 times top 5 after round 1, one of which (Well Fargo this year) was as 1st round leader. Crooked Stick may be a little long for Moore over 4 days I fancy. I am going to play him 1st round leader only here.
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
1pt EW Louis Oosthuizen at 25/1 (Various)
2pt EW Jason Dufner at 25/1 (Various)
0.75pt EW Ryan Moore 1st round leader at 66/1 (Various)
Short weeks are not good fun when trying to pull these tips together..........
No point in writing a novel this week. So, simply, we arrive at a course with precious little course form to go on. The course is plenty long enough, but the interesting aspect for me is the relatively small greens here. The rough does not seem to be the most penal, but ball strikers who can dial in with their approach shots are greatly desired this week. Scrambling will be more of a factor this week, as players will be hitting plenty of long irons in to small targets and greens will inevitably be missed.
So, to my thoughts/selections
Rory is rejected for this reason. Rory's last 5 wins have been followed by 103rd, 51st, 3rd, 35th and 26th after round 1 of the following tournament 3rd was in Dubai, an event he had to win to have a chance of catching Luke Donald in the race - he eventually finished 11th, his first non-top 6 in 5 events. So, I personally am going to be brave and lay Rory on the exchanges and hope he meanders again on Thursday. I also think the high drama of watching anxiously as Louis Oosthuizen just missed his putt to force a play-off may leave him slightly flat coming in here. Finally, good scrambling and great putting stats last week compensated for a pretty average approach game (37th in GIR, 30th in proximity to the hole). I am not convinced he will get away with less than perfect irons this week, although his high, long and towering irons will be well suited to this challenge if he is dialled in.
Tiger is interesting, because his form last week ticks boxes for my photo fit golfer this week. 4th in driving distance and a useful enough 20th in accuracy, 2nd in greens, 12th in strokes gained putting and 2nd in scrambling is highly compelling stuff from Tiger. Tiger was also 19th in proximity to the hole last week, although approaches over 200 yards (62nd) and over 100 yards (28th) is not ideal for the lengthy Crooked Stick this week. Tiger has gone toe to toe with Rory recently at the PGA and here and Rory has won both times. However, Tiger was closing in last time out rather than seeing Rory waltz off in to the distance. I am really struggling to leave Tiger alone, but just will, because I think the price is probably about fair. My slight nagging doubt is that he was heavily involved in the late Monday finish and has not yet had two really dialled in weeks with his approach game all year. After a top 10 GIR performance, he has been no better than 23rd the following week in that stat. I just leave him here.
Tiger and Rory, when paired together at the Barclays, failed to really sparkle. Reason if you are wavering to exercise caution I feel.
Jason Dufner did not putt well enough to win last week and then did not avoid double and triple bogeys enough over the weekend to threaten a place (92nd in bogey avoidance last week). But..........he was 5th in proximity to the hole, 5th in approaches over 200 yards and 11th in greens hit as well as 7th in scrambling. So, hidden in among the headline stats is a player who should find he can fire at Crooked Stick. Dufner is holding steady at 25s and is now joint 6th favourite. It seems the market has lost faith in Dufner more than I have. Sorry folks, but he makes my team again.
I have ignored my system for Rory and it is telling me that if not Rory, I should back Oosthuizen. There is still some 25s out there and Louis was sensational approaching the green and in putting. Louis showed when winning in Malaysia straight after the Masters that he can dust himself down and perform the following week. Oosthuizen is a spells players, who gets hot for a time before then gently ebbing away from the sharp end. So, I am going to back that the run continues. In a 70 man field, several of whom will have a pressure to make the Tour Championship final event when it comes to the final round, Louis will be freer than most to just go for the prize. Let's play him here.
My final play this week is on Ryan Moore. In 2010, Moore dialled in for the FedExCup climax, lying 2nd after day 1 of this event and finishing 3rd, before following up with 9th at East Lake. In 2011, Moore was 16th in this event, which was not quite enough to qualify for East Lake. Moore sits 35th in the FedEx cup race and needs to follow up his strong 10th last week with another good display to make East Lake. 11th in GIR last week and 3rd in proximity to the hole, Moore's success or otherwise will depend on whether his scrambling can improve this week. 80/1 is a good price to find out whether he does or not. My final question is whether outright or 1st round leader is the best way to go. Since start 2010, he has had 8 top 5s. In the same period 10 times top 5 after round 1, one of which (Well Fargo this year) was as 1st round leader. Crooked Stick may be a little long for Moore over 4 days I fancy. I am going to play him 1st round leader only here.
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
Wednesday, 29 August 2012
Omega European Masters Outright selections
Outright selections
1pt EW Lee Slattery at 150/1 (Various)
1pt EW Gregory Bourdy at 66/1 (Various)
1pt EW Anders Hansen at 40/1 (Various)
1pt EW Pablo Larrazabal at 50/1 (Various)
1pt EW Brett Rumford at 55/1 (Stan James, 50/1 various)
1pt EW Lee Slattery at 150/1 (Various)
1pt EW Gregory Bourdy at 66/1 (Various)
1pt EW Anders Hansen at 40/1 (Various)
1pt EW Pablo Larrazabal at 50/1 (Various)
1pt EW Brett Rumford at 55/1 (Stan James, 50/1 various)
Tuesday, 28 August 2012
Golf tips - Deutsche Bank Championship Outright selections
Outright selections
2pts EW Luke Donald at 18/1 (victor Chandler)
1.5pts EW Jason Dufner at 20/1 (Various)
1pt EW Geoff Ogilvy at 50/1 (Various)
1pt EW Jason Day at 50/1 (Various)
Hi all
This started as my tournament form guide and has morphed in to my formal preview for the event after it grew out of all proportion. The claims of the leading protagonists on a course form basis are compelling enough for me to go with it. I have done my usual system work and no big outsiders are showing up strongly enough this week. So, here it is. Enjoy (make a nice hot drink and get comfortable before starting)
The usual course/tournament form analysis below.
My course analysis goes back to 2003 and I analyse in the following way:
First, a general comment. This event is stacked with players who have thrived over the years on this course. TPC Boston seems to reward classy players, who can get it done around the greens. No surprise then to see the likes of Stricker, Snedeker, Ogilvy and Donald near the top given this.
So to the individual players. Steve Stricker is ranked 1 here, due to an excellent overall record. Before a surprisingly average 42nd last year, Stricker had finished 9th, 1st, 13th 9th and 7th in the 5 years prior; 4 of those five years (2007-2010) were results gained in the current play-offs format too, of course. Stricker arrives here in good form too. I spent some time talking about his chances last week, before a 54th placed finish somewhat ended the momentum. I am not overly concerned by that finish. It was a tough course and a number of great putters had a hard time on the greens over the weekend in particular. Stricker was 4th in approaches from under 100 yards, 15th in proximity to the hole and 12th in approaches from over 200 yards. Clearly, he is still striking the ball very nicely. It was actually in his around the green game that he struggled. That should not remain for long and the man with a great record around here should go well again. Motivation should not be a factor either. Stricker sits 10th in the Ryder cup standings and will want to try and make a definite statement to DLIII ahead of his wildcard picks being made. A 2nd indifferent week will be very bad timing for Stricker, although he must have a great chance of inclusion even if this does happen. I just can leave him out again this week. Again, I am a little nervous, but I want to see more than 28/1 for a player I do not think has great win claims right now.
Perhaps (definitely) surprisingly, Charley Hoffman ranks 2nd. His win in 2010 is an obvious reason he ranks well, but Hoffman has been in the top 33 in each of the last 4 years showing he can play the course well. I do not think that he merits the 2nd ranking here, especially when you consider the merits of some of the guys below. My system ranks are based upon set criteria, which sometimes throws out oddities such as this. Before I go on though, let's look to what extent I think Hoffman might shock the field and challenge again this year. I don't. 4 MCs coming in to this event is hardly a ringing endorsement of his chances. In finishing 31st when defending last year, Hoffman had placed 10th at the Barclays and 37th and 25th in two of the previous 4 events. In winning in 2010, Hoffman's previous 8 events read 25-27-41-7-4-83-10-27. He is not anywhere near that form and I do not see a challenge here. Hoffman has really been struggling with the flatstick, ranking 94th or worse in his last 4 events for putts per round. This tournament demands that you putt well and, despite some decent tee to green stats for accuracy (Barclays aside) recently, I feel he has far too much to find.
OK, back to the big boys. 1st and 2nd in the first two years of this event (2003 and 2004, in the old format) and 5th and 8th last two years, Adam Scott has a great chance of going well again here. I have a slight mental block in trusting Adam Scott, but I am becoming less ardent about it. In 13 events this year, Scott has 8 top 15 finishes, but only 2 top 5s. One of those should have been a British Open win of course and his form has been only OK since. My problem with Scott is that he is always liable to have a mental snooze for a day or two in an event and that is often costly in a top class field. Obviously, Scott was outstanding for 68 holes at Lytham, but in every event this year he has posted a score that has been the 44th or worse best round in the field on one of the 4 days. It is tough to win when you do that. There in a nutshell is my issue. In 2010, Scott meandered on days 1 and 2, but then produced a great weekend to place. Last year, Scott started well and then really fell away in finishing 8th. There is no doubt he can, but there is plenty of evidence that he will not. Scott is contracting in the market and I have to leave him at prices of around 25s this week.
Geoff Ogilvy is very interesting. He is generally 50s, but that will probably not last as people realise his record here. Since this event gained an increased importance in 2007 and became a play-off event Ogilvy has finished (2007 first) 6-72-7-2-25. That is compelling form. Ogilvy is simmering in current form too and threatening to start performing again right at the head of tournaments. Ogilvy has 10 top 30s in 13 events, but nothing better than 9th. If you see a top 20 market and have nothing to do with the wheelbarrow of cash sat outside your house, you could do worse. Slightly more practically, the Spreadex finishing position market certainly is worthy of consideration when available. I think the reason Ogilvy is not quite there results wise is because his putting is not where he would like it at the moment. 38th in strokes gained putting last week was decent, however, as was 20th in birdie or better. Ogilvy could just score big this week. I think 50s is value.
Jason Day frustrated me last week. We backed him at 80/1 and he showed me that I wasn't crazy to do so. After meandering at +2, Day rallied to finish -1 after day 1 and improved to -2 at halfway, only 5 from the lead. His tournament ended on day 3 with something of a horror round,but he rallied to produce the best round of the day on Sunday. The omens remain good, but can we play Day again here now he is 50s? Day has played here 4 times, finishing 50th, 19th, 2nd and 3rd. Clearly he has a strong affinity with the course. We are again on Bentgrass this week, which is a tick in the box for Day too. Day has not had as good a year this year, but it is a sign of how good a player he is that he has 4 top 10s to date in 2012. Where I believe Day will feel confident this week is that he can get away with less than stellar driving accuracy a lot more this week than he did last. Last week, 95th in driving accuracy played a big part in 97th GIR. However, Day was 15th in greens hit at the Deutsche last year despite only sitting 82nd in DA. What did seem to be in order last week was Day's putting, so if he can "get away" with a couple of less than perfect drives, he may well feature here. Day was 9th in birdie or better last week and 3rd in approaches over 100 yards. So, he is striking his irons well and rolling the putts nicely too. OK, the Aussie charge continues. He makes my team.
Tiger Woods in 7 appearances has a 1st, two 2nds, 7th and 11th twice. But, Tiger is a tough player to get right at the moment. There is much talk of his weekend deceleration and last week is the latest in a lengthening line of such examples. My main problem with Woods is linked to that. Since his full field comeback win at the Arnold Palmer in March, Woods has had 6 bad weekends. The tournaments? The Masters, The Players, The US Open, The British Open, The PGA and the Barclays. Apart from WGC Bridgestone, where Woods came from deep to make the top 10, he has failed in the 6 biggest events he has played in since April over the weekend. I have two other issues also. First, Tiger's stats were just OK last week. Unlike Jason Day, there is no feeling that he just needs a tweak or a more benevolent course. Woods struggled with the putter, was average off the tee, was average scrambling and just did not give any confidence that he can win this week. He seems to be striking his irons pretty well, but still not overly compelling. Finally, I am not sure how his health is, given the tweaked back and pain experienced last week. Had this not been a key play-offs event, I think he may have pulled out by now. He may yet still. I have to swerve Woods this week, but he can win if his ball is more readily in play as it should be.
Thoughts now on the rest of the top 10 ranked players. Phil is next, but, if you didn't believe last week at Bethpage Black, there is probably not enough reason to believe here, despite the 2007 win and 10th last year. Phil's odds have held too, because last week was by no means awful. I can't have him this week, although the two good rounds from 4 he did shoot last week suggests a game that may be coming around.
Brandt Snedeker has been 3rd and 5th last 2 years and is in very good form. After four average events coming in, Snedeker went 3rd at the Barclays and 3rd here last year. Well only 3 average events coming in this year, with 2nd at the Barclays is a nice omen ahead of this event. 4th in strokes gained putting last week and 20th in birdie or better, Snedeker really has a good chance to feature here. The question is whether I can have him at 28/1. I think I am just going to leave him.
Jason Dufner has had a week off, the week after I had a week off backing him in a tournament. OK, I have not been quite that ardent about it, but I always think hard about whether to have Dufner in my team. Dufner is this year's Webb Simpson for me in many ways, having delivered big from relative obscurity prior. Dufner was 2nd in 2009 here and followed up with 18th and 31st last 2 years also. After giving some guys a headstart in the FedEx cup race last week, Dufner has some catching up to do. The venue at which Webb did it last year has some nice symmetry for me given the similarities in the seasons of both. Last year, Dufner was 20th in putts per round here having been 88th and 95th in the two events prior. So, 47th in putts last time out worries me less than 9th and 4th before that encourages me. The difference is his ballstriking, which has moved from good to sensational in 2012. I think he has a glorious chance this week as long as he kept his eye on the practice side of things in the week off. Dufner's Zurich classic maiden win came after a week off, so I am sure he can keep the momentum rolling here.
Vijay is playing pretty well and has a great past record here. However, I can't trust his weekends any more. At 80s and generally 70s and lower, he has to be overlooked. 1st in 04 and 08 and 2nd in 06 tells you of his past prowess. Good luck if you are on him.
Finally, Luke Donald. Luke has been 2nd and 3rd last two years. And, on a course that tends to favour those with a stellar short game, it is no surprise at all to see. With par 5s that Donald can look at in 2 blows and an impeccable wedge game when he can't, Donald is very likely to keep the scoreboard ticking over. After last year's double money list win, it has been fairly quiet this year for him and he has been vocal about his own failure in majors. 3 top 10 finishes in 5 events and nothing worse than 32nd in that time tells you his game is in shape. I suspect he will be keen to again try and silence the doubters with a strong play-offs. He played well last week and should challenge again this. A note of caution: Donald's 3rd rounds have been poor this year on the whole. If he gets his Saturday right, he will be very close in this event I feel. A note of optimism: Since the Deutsche in 2010, Luke Donald has had 29 further top 10s in strokeplay events. If he fails to get a top 10 this week, it will be the first time he has started a top 10 streak and failed to follow it up with another since then (aside from the season ending European Tour event in Abu Dhabi). That is my killer stat for the week - Luke Donald is in my team too.
I started off trying to do my usual tournament form preview, but I feel I have written enough and picked enough golfers to consider my selections complete. Good luck to you all this week
Regards
Dave
2pts EW Luke Donald at 18/1 (victor Chandler)
1.5pts EW Jason Dufner at 20/1 (Various)
1pt EW Geoff Ogilvy at 50/1 (Various)
1pt EW Jason Day at 50/1 (Various)
Hi all
This started as my tournament form guide and has morphed in to my formal preview for the event after it grew out of all proportion. The claims of the leading protagonists on a course form basis are compelling enough for me to go with it. I have done my usual system work and no big outsiders are showing up strongly enough this week. So, here it is. Enjoy (make a nice hot drink and get comfortable before starting)
The usual course/tournament form analysis below.
My course analysis goes back to 2003 and I analyse in the following way:
- Tournament experience, with a maximum 8 points if a player has played 6 or more times
- Tournament history, with a maximum 10 points if a player has ever won the event, with further increments down to down to 2 points for any top 25.
- Tournament form in 2012, 2011 and 2010, with up to 4 points available for each year.
- Course experience points - As per tournament form, but for the specific course in use. In reality, this is not a factor here as TPC Boston has been the host since this event first played in 2003. Although the tournament has only been in its current guise since 2007, TPC Boston's permanent position as tournament host makes it worthwhile going back to 2003 for indicators.
As we are looking at course form in years gone by, not all in the field make the list due to 2012 being their debut year.
So, looking purely at course and history form, with a ranking system that aims to differentiate between players who do consistently well and those who don't (either one hit wonders or those consistent performers who do not really challenge), we get the following results, with further analysis below the table:
First, a general comment. This event is stacked with players who have thrived over the years on this course. TPC Boston seems to reward classy players, who can get it done around the greens. No surprise then to see the likes of Stricker, Snedeker, Ogilvy and Donald near the top given this.
So to the individual players. Steve Stricker is ranked 1 here, due to an excellent overall record. Before a surprisingly average 42nd last year, Stricker had finished 9th, 1st, 13th 9th and 7th in the 5 years prior; 4 of those five years (2007-2010) were results gained in the current play-offs format too, of course. Stricker arrives here in good form too. I spent some time talking about his chances last week, before a 54th placed finish somewhat ended the momentum. I am not overly concerned by that finish. It was a tough course and a number of great putters had a hard time on the greens over the weekend in particular. Stricker was 4th in approaches from under 100 yards, 15th in proximity to the hole and 12th in approaches from over 200 yards. Clearly, he is still striking the ball very nicely. It was actually in his around the green game that he struggled. That should not remain for long and the man with a great record around here should go well again. Motivation should not be a factor either. Stricker sits 10th in the Ryder cup standings and will want to try and make a definite statement to DLIII ahead of his wildcard picks being made. A 2nd indifferent week will be very bad timing for Stricker, although he must have a great chance of inclusion even if this does happen. I just can leave him out again this week. Again, I am a little nervous, but I want to see more than 28/1 for a player I do not think has great win claims right now.
Perhaps (definitely) surprisingly, Charley Hoffman ranks 2nd. His win in 2010 is an obvious reason he ranks well, but Hoffman has been in the top 33 in each of the last 4 years showing he can play the course well. I do not think that he merits the 2nd ranking here, especially when you consider the merits of some of the guys below. My system ranks are based upon set criteria, which sometimes throws out oddities such as this. Before I go on though, let's look to what extent I think Hoffman might shock the field and challenge again this year. I don't. 4 MCs coming in to this event is hardly a ringing endorsement of his chances. In finishing 31st when defending last year, Hoffman had placed 10th at the Barclays and 37th and 25th in two of the previous 4 events. In winning in 2010, Hoffman's previous 8 events read 25-27-41-7-4-83-10-27. He is not anywhere near that form and I do not see a challenge here. Hoffman has really been struggling with the flatstick, ranking 94th or worse in his last 4 events for putts per round. This tournament demands that you putt well and, despite some decent tee to green stats for accuracy (Barclays aside) recently, I feel he has far too much to find.
OK, back to the big boys. 1st and 2nd in the first two years of this event (2003 and 2004, in the old format) and 5th and 8th last two years, Adam Scott has a great chance of going well again here. I have a slight mental block in trusting Adam Scott, but I am becoming less ardent about it. In 13 events this year, Scott has 8 top 15 finishes, but only 2 top 5s. One of those should have been a British Open win of course and his form has been only OK since. My problem with Scott is that he is always liable to have a mental snooze for a day or two in an event and that is often costly in a top class field. Obviously, Scott was outstanding for 68 holes at Lytham, but in every event this year he has posted a score that has been the 44th or worse best round in the field on one of the 4 days. It is tough to win when you do that. There in a nutshell is my issue. In 2010, Scott meandered on days 1 and 2, but then produced a great weekend to place. Last year, Scott started well and then really fell away in finishing 8th. There is no doubt he can, but there is plenty of evidence that he will not. Scott is contracting in the market and I have to leave him at prices of around 25s this week.
Geoff Ogilvy is very interesting. He is generally 50s, but that will probably not last as people realise his record here. Since this event gained an increased importance in 2007 and became a play-off event Ogilvy has finished (2007 first) 6-72-7-2-25. That is compelling form. Ogilvy is simmering in current form too and threatening to start performing again right at the head of tournaments. Ogilvy has 10 top 30s in 13 events, but nothing better than 9th. If you see a top 20 market and have nothing to do with the wheelbarrow of cash sat outside your house, you could do worse. Slightly more practically, the Spreadex finishing position market certainly is worthy of consideration when available. I think the reason Ogilvy is not quite there results wise is because his putting is not where he would like it at the moment. 38th in strokes gained putting last week was decent, however, as was 20th in birdie or better. Ogilvy could just score big this week. I think 50s is value.
Jason Day frustrated me last week. We backed him at 80/1 and he showed me that I wasn't crazy to do so. After meandering at +2, Day rallied to finish -1 after day 1 and improved to -2 at halfway, only 5 from the lead. His tournament ended on day 3 with something of a horror round,but he rallied to produce the best round of the day on Sunday. The omens remain good, but can we play Day again here now he is 50s? Day has played here 4 times, finishing 50th, 19th, 2nd and 3rd. Clearly he has a strong affinity with the course. We are again on Bentgrass this week, which is a tick in the box for Day too. Day has not had as good a year this year, but it is a sign of how good a player he is that he has 4 top 10s to date in 2012. Where I believe Day will feel confident this week is that he can get away with less than stellar driving accuracy a lot more this week than he did last. Last week, 95th in driving accuracy played a big part in 97th GIR. However, Day was 15th in greens hit at the Deutsche last year despite only sitting 82nd in DA. What did seem to be in order last week was Day's putting, so if he can "get away" with a couple of less than perfect drives, he may well feature here. Day was 9th in birdie or better last week and 3rd in approaches over 100 yards. So, he is striking his irons well and rolling the putts nicely too. OK, the Aussie charge continues. He makes my team.
Tiger Woods in 7 appearances has a 1st, two 2nds, 7th and 11th twice. But, Tiger is a tough player to get right at the moment. There is much talk of his weekend deceleration and last week is the latest in a lengthening line of such examples. My main problem with Woods is linked to that. Since his full field comeback win at the Arnold Palmer in March, Woods has had 6 bad weekends. The tournaments? The Masters, The Players, The US Open, The British Open, The PGA and the Barclays. Apart from WGC Bridgestone, where Woods came from deep to make the top 10, he has failed in the 6 biggest events he has played in since April over the weekend. I have two other issues also. First, Tiger's stats were just OK last week. Unlike Jason Day, there is no feeling that he just needs a tweak or a more benevolent course. Woods struggled with the putter, was average off the tee, was average scrambling and just did not give any confidence that he can win this week. He seems to be striking his irons pretty well, but still not overly compelling. Finally, I am not sure how his health is, given the tweaked back and pain experienced last week. Had this not been a key play-offs event, I think he may have pulled out by now. He may yet still. I have to swerve Woods this week, but he can win if his ball is more readily in play as it should be.
Thoughts now on the rest of the top 10 ranked players. Phil is next, but, if you didn't believe last week at Bethpage Black, there is probably not enough reason to believe here, despite the 2007 win and 10th last year. Phil's odds have held too, because last week was by no means awful. I can't have him this week, although the two good rounds from 4 he did shoot last week suggests a game that may be coming around.
Brandt Snedeker has been 3rd and 5th last 2 years and is in very good form. After four average events coming in, Snedeker went 3rd at the Barclays and 3rd here last year. Well only 3 average events coming in this year, with 2nd at the Barclays is a nice omen ahead of this event. 4th in strokes gained putting last week and 20th in birdie or better, Snedeker really has a good chance to feature here. The question is whether I can have him at 28/1. I think I am just going to leave him.
Jason Dufner has had a week off, the week after I had a week off backing him in a tournament. OK, I have not been quite that ardent about it, but I always think hard about whether to have Dufner in my team. Dufner is this year's Webb Simpson for me in many ways, having delivered big from relative obscurity prior. Dufner was 2nd in 2009 here and followed up with 18th and 31st last 2 years also. After giving some guys a headstart in the FedEx cup race last week, Dufner has some catching up to do. The venue at which Webb did it last year has some nice symmetry for me given the similarities in the seasons of both. Last year, Dufner was 20th in putts per round here having been 88th and 95th in the two events prior. So, 47th in putts last time out worries me less than 9th and 4th before that encourages me. The difference is his ballstriking, which has moved from good to sensational in 2012. I think he has a glorious chance this week as long as he kept his eye on the practice side of things in the week off. Dufner's Zurich classic maiden win came after a week off, so I am sure he can keep the momentum rolling here.
Vijay is playing pretty well and has a great past record here. However, I can't trust his weekends any more. At 80s and generally 70s and lower, he has to be overlooked. 1st in 04 and 08 and 2nd in 06 tells you of his past prowess. Good luck if you are on him.
Finally, Luke Donald. Luke has been 2nd and 3rd last two years. And, on a course that tends to favour those with a stellar short game, it is no surprise at all to see. With par 5s that Donald can look at in 2 blows and an impeccable wedge game when he can't, Donald is very likely to keep the scoreboard ticking over. After last year's double money list win, it has been fairly quiet this year for him and he has been vocal about his own failure in majors. 3 top 10 finishes in 5 events and nothing worse than 32nd in that time tells you his game is in shape. I suspect he will be keen to again try and silence the doubters with a strong play-offs. He played well last week and should challenge again this. A note of caution: Donald's 3rd rounds have been poor this year on the whole. If he gets his Saturday right, he will be very close in this event I feel. A note of optimism: Since the Deutsche in 2010, Luke Donald has had 29 further top 10s in strokeplay events. If he fails to get a top 10 this week, it will be the first time he has started a top 10 streak and failed to follow it up with another since then (aside from the season ending European Tour event in Abu Dhabi). That is my killer stat for the week - Luke Donald is in my team too.
I started off trying to do my usual tournament form preview, but I feel I have written enough and picked enough golfers to consider my selections complete. Good luck to you all this week
Regards
Dave
Wednesday, 22 August 2012
Golf tips - The Barclays Outright selections
Outright selections
1pt EW Bo Van Pelt at 50/1 (Various)
1.5pts EW Justin Rose at 25/1 (Various)
1pt EW Jason Day at 80/1 (Various)
1pt EW Henrik Stenson at 100/1 (Various, but take 6 places if you can)
1pt EW Scott Piercy at 100/1 (Various, but take 6 places if you can)
Life continues to frustrate, with my golfing blogs limited to last minute rushed updates that do not serve enough value to the reader, who has likely made some decisions already.
I have done my usual research for the event though and believe I have found golfers here who represent true value against the bookmakers price. If you are looking for last minute reasons to believe, or reasons to be swayed, then read on. There might be something in here for you.
I am not going to wax lyrical on the needed attributes for this golf tournament, instead focusing more on who I believe can get it done. However, my thought on the type of players I want to consider are as follows:
Ability to perform in stellar fields
The Barclays field this year is something approaching a major championship or WGC standard. With a roll call of winners since 2007 such as Stricker, Vijay, Kuchar and Dustin Johnson, I expect a classy winner this week, who will be rubber-stamping his status as challenger for the whole shooting match - the Tour Championship itself in 4 weeks time. Any player who can win one of the next three vents will almost certainly be in a win to win it all situation at the Tour Championship.
Straight is good; long and fairly straight is better
Bethpage Black in 2009 followed the recent US Open trend (Olympic Atlhletic Club apart) of longer hitters featuring prominently on the leaderboard, more so than straight hitters. In 2009, adverse conditions left the course soft and hence made it play longer; it was plenty long enough before any rain fell of course. The challenge is less severe this time around as firmer fairways will shorten the course, with less punishment for players missing the short stuff. I saw a tweet from John Senden who guessed that -12 to -14 might get it done this week. Given -4 was the mark in 2009, this I think highlights that the course is more accessible to shorter hitters here. Even in 2009 and 2002 when the course was tougher, players such as Donald and Stricker, who are by no means long, were able to feature.
Hit your greens and scramble impeccably when you miss.
Players will need to keep their score ticking over this week. Greens are small here and ball strikers with a high ball flight have a clear edge. Phil has twice finished 2nd here, which I think should be attractive to players like Dustin Johnson, Bubba Watson and Rory McIlroy. Great scramblers can do well here, but they are 2nd favourite to green finding machines.
Putting will be useful, but is not likely to be the strongest requirement this week.
In particular, I want demonstrably good putters on Bent surfaces here. As I have already said, I believe our winner (or at least a major challenger for the event) is going to be one of the star names in this field. Expect him to have demonstrated great results on bentgrass greened venues previously in his career.
OK, time for the selections
Rory and Tiger do not make my team. I want to pick Rory more of the two. After all, he has just waltzed off with the PGA and his win in the US Open of 2011 will resonate with his backers here. The match up with Tiger is potentially a significant one in the immediate context of the career of both golfers. The tussle for world number 1 just got really interesting and either player can make a real statement in that group. I do not see either player really breaking free of the other and making hay at the top, which could be the pivotal factor come the weekend. This could be entirely wrong, but I just feel too uneasy about either to back them at single figure odds this week.
I have 6 players clearly in mind here. Namely Bo Van Pelt, Justin Rose, Steve Stricker, Scott Piercy, Henrik Stensson and Jason Day. They all rank in the top 10 of my system ranks. Of the 6, I did not expect the last 3 to have ranked so highly and certainly did not have Jason Day in mind.
However, let's look at why they appeal.
With 8 top 10 finishes in 2012 and two top 10s in last years play-offs, Bo Van Pelt is set for another strong week here. He was a solid finishing 4 holes away from earning us a place payout in the PGA, but this is the problem. Van Pelt has 8 top 10s this year, but only one top 5. I keep getting a great run for my money with a guy priced up as not being in the top 10 in most good fields, but am not getting paid. Can I stick with him once more? Yes. He is my number 1 ranked player here after all . He has to place again soon and might just hold on to win one of these things and justify all of the pain. In my recent ranks, he is 18th in driving distance, 19th in accuracy and 9th in greens. My concern is that he may need to scramble better than he usually does this week as he will miss more greens than usual here. However, he is a must back. Sorry for those sick of me.
Justin Rose won a play-off event last year. This appeals hugely to me. He is evolving in to a player at one with the fact that he is a top performer. Rose lost his way for some years but he is top notch in World Golf today and a feature in the World's top 10 this year. Rose could well have placed at the Masters and did so with a great weekend at the PGA. He also landed his first WGC title this year and unlike Mahan, who has fallen badly away, he has maintained his consistency through 2012. Rose ranks 2nd in my Bentgrass ratings for the last 2 years and ranks 2nd in my recent GIR stats. So, we have a player here who will find more greens (and is a great scrambler when he does miss) than most if not all and has some great results on bent surfaces. OK, that's a 2nd player I can not omit.
Mr September, Steve Stricker, has a fantastic play-offs record and has won this event also. Stricker has also been 16th and 23rd here in the US Open. With 3 top 7s in his last 4 events, including 7th at the PGA after a poor start, form is good too. 20th in my recent greens hit stats and one of the very best scramblers on tour, Stricker should go very nicely this week. Unusually, Stricker's putting was less than impeccable earlier in the season but 9th, 20th and 11th in the last 3 regulation events tells you he is right back on song. My only concern with Stricker is his price. I simply can't have him at 25s, but I am very tempted to. Stricker just misses out and is the last guy crossed from my list.
OK, my last 3 guys make the team. Henrik Stenson is back. We were with him last time and after a solid start, he withdrew due to illness. Frustrating. However, 100/1 is massive. I said it last week, but all parts of Stenson's game are in sound working order. I expect him to be in the higher reaches of the leaderboard as long as his illness has not lingered too much. Stenson could be the surprise package that everybody is gutted they have missed this week.
Scott Piercy was one of the big gambles of the PGA. I love the fact that, having done nothing at all to make us doubt him, he is a triple figure price here. Piercy hits it long, is putting really well, has some great results on bent tracks recently and is in arguably the most consistent form of his career. He is the least heralded of my team here, but I think there is space for him to get in the mix. A 48th in the PGA was preceded by 12th, 3rd, 1st and 19th. In the PGA he was 6th after day 1 and, after getting blown away a little on Friday and Saturday, he produced the 12th best Sunday round to move up the leaderboard. There is nothing at all wrong with his game. 100s is a brilliant price.
Finally, Jason Day makes my team. His results are improving and the reason for the improvement are reason for us to want to back him here. First though, Jason Day is undoubtedly the type of player whose odds will collapse if he goes close here. That he is 80/1 almost demands we look at him despite the indifferent year. First of all, Day is something of a bentgrass specialist with a series of great headline results on the surface. He struggled in Friday gusts to miss the cut at the PGA, but we can forgive that. Prior to that, 8th and 29th served notice that he was finding his feet again, especially as the 29th was at Bridgestone, an event where he sat 59th after 2 rounds before moving through. Day also fits the bill for a player who turns up for the big events, as 3 top 13 results in 4 play-off events last year confirms. This pick is one that I will very happy about if it comes in. He is ready to fire. Let's hope it all comes together this week for us.
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
1pt EW Bo Van Pelt at 50/1 (Various)
1.5pts EW Justin Rose at 25/1 (Various)
1pt EW Jason Day at 80/1 (Various)
1pt EW Henrik Stenson at 100/1 (Various, but take 6 places if you can)
1pt EW Scott Piercy at 100/1 (Various, but take 6 places if you can)
Life continues to frustrate, with my golfing blogs limited to last minute rushed updates that do not serve enough value to the reader, who has likely made some decisions already.
I have done my usual research for the event though and believe I have found golfers here who represent true value against the bookmakers price. If you are looking for last minute reasons to believe, or reasons to be swayed, then read on. There might be something in here for you.
I am not going to wax lyrical on the needed attributes for this golf tournament, instead focusing more on who I believe can get it done. However, my thought on the type of players I want to consider are as follows:
Ability to perform in stellar fields
The Barclays field this year is something approaching a major championship or WGC standard. With a roll call of winners since 2007 such as Stricker, Vijay, Kuchar and Dustin Johnson, I expect a classy winner this week, who will be rubber-stamping his status as challenger for the whole shooting match - the Tour Championship itself in 4 weeks time. Any player who can win one of the next three vents will almost certainly be in a win to win it all situation at the Tour Championship.
Straight is good; long and fairly straight is better
Bethpage Black in 2009 followed the recent US Open trend (Olympic Atlhletic Club apart) of longer hitters featuring prominently on the leaderboard, more so than straight hitters. In 2009, adverse conditions left the course soft and hence made it play longer; it was plenty long enough before any rain fell of course. The challenge is less severe this time around as firmer fairways will shorten the course, with less punishment for players missing the short stuff. I saw a tweet from John Senden who guessed that -12 to -14 might get it done this week. Given -4 was the mark in 2009, this I think highlights that the course is more accessible to shorter hitters here. Even in 2009 and 2002 when the course was tougher, players such as Donald and Stricker, who are by no means long, were able to feature.
Hit your greens and scramble impeccably when you miss.
Players will need to keep their score ticking over this week. Greens are small here and ball strikers with a high ball flight have a clear edge. Phil has twice finished 2nd here, which I think should be attractive to players like Dustin Johnson, Bubba Watson and Rory McIlroy. Great scramblers can do well here, but they are 2nd favourite to green finding machines.
Putting will be useful, but is not likely to be the strongest requirement this week.
In particular, I want demonstrably good putters on Bent surfaces here. As I have already said, I believe our winner (or at least a major challenger for the event) is going to be one of the star names in this field. Expect him to have demonstrated great results on bentgrass greened venues previously in his career.
OK, time for the selections
Rory and Tiger do not make my team. I want to pick Rory more of the two. After all, he has just waltzed off with the PGA and his win in the US Open of 2011 will resonate with his backers here. The match up with Tiger is potentially a significant one in the immediate context of the career of both golfers. The tussle for world number 1 just got really interesting and either player can make a real statement in that group. I do not see either player really breaking free of the other and making hay at the top, which could be the pivotal factor come the weekend. This could be entirely wrong, but I just feel too uneasy about either to back them at single figure odds this week.
I have 6 players clearly in mind here. Namely Bo Van Pelt, Justin Rose, Steve Stricker, Scott Piercy, Henrik Stensson and Jason Day. They all rank in the top 10 of my system ranks. Of the 6, I did not expect the last 3 to have ranked so highly and certainly did not have Jason Day in mind.
However, let's look at why they appeal.
With 8 top 10 finishes in 2012 and two top 10s in last years play-offs, Bo Van Pelt is set for another strong week here. He was a solid finishing 4 holes away from earning us a place payout in the PGA, but this is the problem. Van Pelt has 8 top 10s this year, but only one top 5. I keep getting a great run for my money with a guy priced up as not being in the top 10 in most good fields, but am not getting paid. Can I stick with him once more? Yes. He is my number 1 ranked player here after all . He has to place again soon and might just hold on to win one of these things and justify all of the pain. In my recent ranks, he is 18th in driving distance, 19th in accuracy and 9th in greens. My concern is that he may need to scramble better than he usually does this week as he will miss more greens than usual here. However, he is a must back. Sorry for those sick of me.
Justin Rose won a play-off event last year. This appeals hugely to me. He is evolving in to a player at one with the fact that he is a top performer. Rose lost his way for some years but he is top notch in World Golf today and a feature in the World's top 10 this year. Rose could well have placed at the Masters and did so with a great weekend at the PGA. He also landed his first WGC title this year and unlike Mahan, who has fallen badly away, he has maintained his consistency through 2012. Rose ranks 2nd in my Bentgrass ratings for the last 2 years and ranks 2nd in my recent GIR stats. So, we have a player here who will find more greens (and is a great scrambler when he does miss) than most if not all and has some great results on bent surfaces. OK, that's a 2nd player I can not omit.
Mr September, Steve Stricker, has a fantastic play-offs record and has won this event also. Stricker has also been 16th and 23rd here in the US Open. With 3 top 7s in his last 4 events, including 7th at the PGA after a poor start, form is good too. 20th in my recent greens hit stats and one of the very best scramblers on tour, Stricker should go very nicely this week. Unusually, Stricker's putting was less than impeccable earlier in the season but 9th, 20th and 11th in the last 3 regulation events tells you he is right back on song. My only concern with Stricker is his price. I simply can't have him at 25s, but I am very tempted to. Stricker just misses out and is the last guy crossed from my list.
OK, my last 3 guys make the team. Henrik Stenson is back. We were with him last time and after a solid start, he withdrew due to illness. Frustrating. However, 100/1 is massive. I said it last week, but all parts of Stenson's game are in sound working order. I expect him to be in the higher reaches of the leaderboard as long as his illness has not lingered too much. Stenson could be the surprise package that everybody is gutted they have missed this week.
Scott Piercy was one of the big gambles of the PGA. I love the fact that, having done nothing at all to make us doubt him, he is a triple figure price here. Piercy hits it long, is putting really well, has some great results on bent tracks recently and is in arguably the most consistent form of his career. He is the least heralded of my team here, but I think there is space for him to get in the mix. A 48th in the PGA was preceded by 12th, 3rd, 1st and 19th. In the PGA he was 6th after day 1 and, after getting blown away a little on Friday and Saturday, he produced the 12th best Sunday round to move up the leaderboard. There is nothing at all wrong with his game. 100s is a brilliant price.
Finally, Jason Day makes my team. His results are improving and the reason for the improvement are reason for us to want to back him here. First though, Jason Day is undoubtedly the type of player whose odds will collapse if he goes close here. That he is 80/1 almost demands we look at him despite the indifferent year. First of all, Day is something of a bentgrass specialist with a series of great headline results on the surface. He struggled in Friday gusts to miss the cut at the PGA, but we can forgive that. Prior to that, 8th and 29th served notice that he was finding his feet again, especially as the 29th was at Bridgestone, an event where he sat 59th after 2 rounds before moving through. Day also fits the bill for a player who turns up for the big events, as 3 top 13 results in 4 play-off events last year confirms. This pick is one that I will very happy about if it comes in. He is ready to fire. Let's hope it all comes together this week for us.
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
Saturday, 18 August 2012
Golf tips - Wyndham Championship midpoint considerations
Midpoint selection
1pt EW Matt Every at 35/1 (BlueSQ, 33/1 various)
With the withdrawal of Henrik Stenson when decently placed after round 1 and with Kevin Stadler starting slowly, it seems I need to look elsewhere for my winner this week. We chose a good tournament for Kyle Thompson to make only his 2nd cut of the year and our top 20 chances are still alive there.
The following chart shows the position of the eventual winner at halfway since 2001 in this event.
The right hand column ranks the players' improvement over the weekend when Top 20 at halfway. I have gone down to T35th this week. Ranked first is DeLaet, who is a go to player of mine when conditions set up well for him. Followers will have shared the near miss pain of backing him at 100/1 and 200/1 so far this year. I can't back him here though. Injury last year means we only have 3 records of Delaet in the top 20 at halfway from this year. However, from tracing back through 2010 also, in 49 made cuts, DeLaet had put together 2 very good rounds on precisely 0 occasions over the weekend. He will need to sustain a charge to place this week, so is overlooked.
Nicolas Colaserts ranks 2nd. 9 times he has been in the top 20 at halfway this year, going on to place 3 times. However, on two of those occasions, he was already in the top 5 at this stage. I can't back him, although 22/1 is very close to being backable.
Charl Schwartzel is coming back to form. 7 shots from the lead and 66/1 is appealing on the surface of things and he ranks 3rd in weekend performance in this analysis. However, I have no instances in the last two years of him placing from any lower than 18th at this stage. He is 22nd at present. His record of staying in touch after a strong start is impeccable, so I may well be advising Charl the next time he is in the top 8 or so. However, he is just too far away for my tastes this week.
As the 100/30 (3s generally) favourite, Webb Simpson has to be considered as a win only proposition Ranked 4th in our 46 man field above, clearly he has a decent chance of being close to the summit on Sunday. Webb Simpson had 14 bad rounds of golf in 2011, the 13th of which was in the PGA. Then, he won the Wyndham and went on a great run, threatening the leaders virtually every time he played. Well, he has 14 rounds bad rounds of golf so far this year and is starting to come to the boil again. Simpson's 3 tour wins have come from 2nd (here), 18th (Deutsche) and 29th (US Open) at this stage. He has twice led the field at halfway, finishing 9th and 7th. When 2nd at halfway, he has finished 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th. He has to have a great chance. Let's look at his closest pursuers before deciding to make a play here.
Jimmy Walker tends to decelerate over the weekend. This course likes to crown first time winners, but is Walker going to continue that trend? Walker led the Valero Texas Open in 2010, eventually finishing a solid 3rd after a good weekend. This year, he has been in the top 5 on three occasions at this stage. However, after going on to finish 4th at Northern Trust, he has imploded at the Honda Classic and AT&T, finishing 67th and 32nd respectively. With such quality around him, I would be very surprised were he to win here. 7/1 is pretty dire odds.
Tim Clark is a classy player, but trusting this 1 time winner to go on and win an event is always tough. At 8/1, I can not back him, especially as he is yet to put together 4 good rounds in a tournament since his return from injury. Sergio Garcia needs a great finish here to push Poulter out of the final Ryder Cup qualifying place. I thought hard about backing him to be 36 hole leader here and am rueful in seeing him T3rd now. The reason I looked more at the 36 hole option is because Garcia has not put together a good weekend all season, aside from the stunning charge in the Northern Trust Open, which almost brought victory. He can win from here if he stays dialled in, but his confidence seems to have been down this year, and I can't back him at 8/1 either, despite the incentive. Finally Carl Pettersson. Pettersson recovered well yesterday and is 2nd favourite at 6/1. Excluding the limited field Hyundai, Pettersson failed to get in the top 5 at halfway in 2011. However, 2012 has seen Pettersson here 4 times in 2012. Of those 4 times, Pettersson has finished 2nd twice and 1st once, with only a poor weekend at the Northern Trust blotting his record. With his form here over the years as well, he is a live threat.
At 35/1, I can not ignore Matt Every. My blueprint in backing players at this stage from a little off the pace is to find players that dial in when in contention. In 2012, Every has fired on all 5 times he has been in the top 30 at halfway. Mid way positions first, with final positions in brackets: 1 (6), 2 (3), 16 (8), 3 (2), 26 (6). I am getting around 8/1 here that Every places again. With the instances of players winning for the first time here as well and tight par 70s being to his liking this year, Every makes my team. Bud Cauley is on the same score, has the same number of wins - 0 - and yet is over half the price, with a less compelling performance over the weekend when in the mix. That said, his back to back 4th place finishes coming in are the reason for this. Cauley is too short for me though.
I am also going to have a small play on Jonas Blixt in the top 10 market on BetFair. Blixt is a country mile off the pace at -1, but has put together great 3rd rounds the last 3 times he has made the cut. I can't advise a formal bet, because there is only £10 at 65s available. But, I really like the price and am happy to back that he gets hot again at those prices. If you can find any way to get some money on Blixt at those sort of numbers, it is not the worst play at all. I think he is just too far away to be backable in the place market, but the huge odds available here are interesting as a back to lay option also.
So, am I backing Webb? No. There is too much quality right behind him in my view for 3/1 to be good enough value. I think he is the most likely winner, but 12/1 before the off down to 3 only a shot ahead of 4 of the pre-event favourites does not quite stack up for me, especially as the 12s was too tight to begin with.
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
1pt EW Matt Every at 35/1 (BlueSQ, 33/1 various)
With the withdrawal of Henrik Stenson when decently placed after round 1 and with Kevin Stadler starting slowly, it seems I need to look elsewhere for my winner this week. We chose a good tournament for Kyle Thompson to make only his 2nd cut of the year and our top 20 chances are still alive there.
The following chart shows the position of the eventual winner at halfway since 2001 in this event.
Aside from 2006 and 2007, players have had to be right in the mix at halfway to win. The event has only been played at Sedgefield since 2008 of course, since which time the winner has been 1st, 1st, 1st and 2nd at halfway.
Last year, Webb Simpson sat 2nd before going on to have a strong weekend and win by 3 shots. He is the very obvious favourite again this year. The pre 2008 results are not entirely without use as winning scores were broadly similar at Forest Oaks too. Snedeker's 66-63 weekend to win in 2007 from 37th position after round 2 shows that in low scoring events, it is possible for a player to make giant strides. However, generally it is extremely tough to win from deep, because one of the leaders is always like to shoot at least one low round over the weekend.
As you may expect, there are many instances of players getting hot over the weekend and placing. The table below shows this.
Let's look more specifically at the Sedgefield results here. In 2008, Laird and Beem stormed through to place from 61st, while JJ Henry also placed from 45th at halfway. In '09, Bohn and Sutherland were able to place from 41st. In 2010, Michael Sim placed from 25th and last year, McNeill (35th to 2nd), Vijay (19th to T4th), Kim (44th to T4th), Howell III (19th to T4th) and Pettersson (35th to T4th) all made the places from deep.
So, it seems that to find our winner, we should look at the head of the leaderboard, but we should certainly not rule out players charging from deep to at least place.
With that in mind, let's try to dissect which of our leaders can get it done and who may be able to make a hero charge. From the last two years on tour, the following table shows how players have performed when in the top 20 at the post-cut stage.
Nicolas Colaserts ranks 2nd. 9 times he has been in the top 20 at halfway this year, going on to place 3 times. However, on two of those occasions, he was already in the top 5 at this stage. I can't back him, although 22/1 is very close to being backable.
Charl Schwartzel is coming back to form. 7 shots from the lead and 66/1 is appealing on the surface of things and he ranks 3rd in weekend performance in this analysis. However, I have no instances in the last two years of him placing from any lower than 18th at this stage. He is 22nd at present. His record of staying in touch after a strong start is impeccable, so I may well be advising Charl the next time he is in the top 8 or so. However, he is just too far away for my tastes this week.
As the 100/30 (3s generally) favourite, Webb Simpson has to be considered as a win only proposition Ranked 4th in our 46 man field above, clearly he has a decent chance of being close to the summit on Sunday. Webb Simpson had 14 bad rounds of golf in 2011, the 13th of which was in the PGA. Then, he won the Wyndham and went on a great run, threatening the leaders virtually every time he played. Well, he has 14 rounds bad rounds of golf so far this year and is starting to come to the boil again. Simpson's 3 tour wins have come from 2nd (here), 18th (Deutsche) and 29th (US Open) at this stage. He has twice led the field at halfway, finishing 9th and 7th. When 2nd at halfway, he has finished 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th. He has to have a great chance. Let's look at his closest pursuers before deciding to make a play here.
Jimmy Walker tends to decelerate over the weekend. This course likes to crown first time winners, but is Walker going to continue that trend? Walker led the Valero Texas Open in 2010, eventually finishing a solid 3rd after a good weekend. This year, he has been in the top 5 on three occasions at this stage. However, after going on to finish 4th at Northern Trust, he has imploded at the Honda Classic and AT&T, finishing 67th and 32nd respectively. With such quality around him, I would be very surprised were he to win here. 7/1 is pretty dire odds.
Tim Clark is a classy player, but trusting this 1 time winner to go on and win an event is always tough. At 8/1, I can not back him, especially as he is yet to put together 4 good rounds in a tournament since his return from injury. Sergio Garcia needs a great finish here to push Poulter out of the final Ryder Cup qualifying place. I thought hard about backing him to be 36 hole leader here and am rueful in seeing him T3rd now. The reason I looked more at the 36 hole option is because Garcia has not put together a good weekend all season, aside from the stunning charge in the Northern Trust Open, which almost brought victory. He can win from here if he stays dialled in, but his confidence seems to have been down this year, and I can't back him at 8/1 either, despite the incentive. Finally Carl Pettersson. Pettersson recovered well yesterday and is 2nd favourite at 6/1. Excluding the limited field Hyundai, Pettersson failed to get in the top 5 at halfway in 2011. However, 2012 has seen Pettersson here 4 times in 2012. Of those 4 times, Pettersson has finished 2nd twice and 1st once, with only a poor weekend at the Northern Trust blotting his record. With his form here over the years as well, he is a live threat.
At 35/1, I can not ignore Matt Every. My blueprint in backing players at this stage from a little off the pace is to find players that dial in when in contention. In 2012, Every has fired on all 5 times he has been in the top 30 at halfway. Mid way positions first, with final positions in brackets: 1 (6), 2 (3), 16 (8), 3 (2), 26 (6). I am getting around 8/1 here that Every places again. With the instances of players winning for the first time here as well and tight par 70s being to his liking this year, Every makes my team. Bud Cauley is on the same score, has the same number of wins - 0 - and yet is over half the price, with a less compelling performance over the weekend when in the mix. That said, his back to back 4th place finishes coming in are the reason for this. Cauley is too short for me though.
I am also going to have a small play on Jonas Blixt in the top 10 market on BetFair. Blixt is a country mile off the pace at -1, but has put together great 3rd rounds the last 3 times he has made the cut. I can't advise a formal bet, because there is only £10 at 65s available. But, I really like the price and am happy to back that he gets hot again at those prices. If you can find any way to get some money on Blixt at those sort of numbers, it is not the worst play at all. I think he is just too far away to be backable in the place market, but the huge odds available here are interesting as a back to lay option also.
So, am I backing Webb? No. There is too much quality right behind him in my view for 3/1 to be good enough value. I think he is the most likely winner, but 12/1 before the off down to 3 only a shot ahead of 4 of the pre-event favourites does not quite stack up for me, especially as the 12s was too tight to begin with.
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
Wednesday, 15 August 2012
Wyndham Championship Outright Selections
Outright selections
0.2pts EW Kyle Thompson at 1000/1 (SkyBet, BetVictor) and 0.2pts top 20 at 40/1 (SkyBet)
1pt EW Henrik Stensson at 40/1 (Various)
1pt EW Kevin Stadler at 125/1 (Various)
1pt EW JB Holmes at 66/1 (BoyleSports)
Additional bet
2pt EW Jason Dufner to win the Money list at 10/1 (Various, but take 3 places and 1/5 odds)
As mentioned on Twitter, Wednesday night was always going to be my only hope of writing a preview. And, here it is, albeit a hasty one.
I have been keeping up with twitter whilst away and have heard a lot about how few players making the top 25 at the PGA the week before have then gone on to place at the Wyndham. Well, it is a bit of a red herring in my view. In 2010, only 2 players from the top 25 of the PGA PLAYED the next week at the Wyndham. In 2011, that had swelled to 4 players. Hardly a compelling stat then, that none of the 6 (Dufner/Petterson 2010, Dufner/Immelman/Toms/Haas 2011) made top 5. The simple fact is that the top players playing in the PGA use Wyndham as a gap week as a general rule ahead of the play-offs.
So, let us not eliminate anybody at all from our selections on this basis. However, at time of writing, Jason Dufner has come in to 12s, as has Webb Simpson, with Petterson now 18s. Asserting that any of these prices are value is not something I can readily do.
Petterson played well last week and has a great record here, but I am not sure I can have him within a few points of the favourite before the off. He went pretty deep last week and, despite the short journey here, his press coverage has been pretty full-on for a guy not usually so accustomed to the lime light. I would not be surprised were he to prosper here, but his MC when last well placed at the PGA coming in is enough to put me off, despite 4th in 2011 and 1st in 2008 on this course. The 1st in 2008 and subsequent 67th in 2009 also gives a clue as to how Petterson may cope this week as the media attention would have been similar in 2009 to this week before the off.
Simpson really impressed me in the 2nd round last week, after shaking off the rust of his planned absence from the game in the 1st round. 8th in 2010 and 1st in 2011 shows Simpson loves the course and plays it well. However, the change to Bermuda is a slight negative for me: Simpson is 40th in my Bermuda positive ranking, versus 22nd on Bentgrass (the green grass prior to this year's renovation). Despite the US Open win, Simpson's form has been a little less than stellar this year and he is not a 12/1 shot this week. He can win, but I can't have him at the price.
I was with Dufner for his maiden win and he has been good to me generally this year, but his record is indifferent in this event. He is a better player now of course, and he never contended last week, unlike the last two years in the PGA (5th 2012, 2nd 2011). I have nothing better than 26th on this course however and nothing better than 8th way back in 2004 to guide me here. With new greens set to play firmer and faster, Dufner may struggle a little. Bermuda grass greens are a slight negative versus Bent in my stats, but this less than top draw putter does not really have his results driven by excellence on the greens. Tee shots are arguably too easy here for Dufner's accuracy to really give him an edge over tougher tracks, although his approach play in to firmer greens will give him more presentable birdie opportunites than most if not all of the field. I have been on recent near misses for Dufner. Now I have omitted him, I do not want him to win this week...................but I do for the bet I will detail later.
The first pick for me is my 2nd 1000/1 pick of the year. The first 1000/1 pick, Brian Harman, had sneaky course form at the US Open and fell short, while Michael Thompson got it done at huge odds as one of the few others who also had indicators there. So, hopefully I am using the right logic this week also with my insane pick. This guy has the following form in 2012: MC (18 times), WD (once) and T57th. So, I am truly insane right? Well, quite possibly. But, there are some decent reasons for my selection and I do not think a 1000/1 dismissal is at all right. South Carolina resident (we are in NC this week) Kyle Thompson has 3 Nationwide tour wins on his CV, two of which are in the Rex Hospital Open. The Rex Hospital Open was won last year on a non too taxing course length wise with Bermuda greens, held in North Carolina. Sound familiar? This course should resonate with Thompson this week. I think Kyle Thompson is a talented player who just has lost his way on the main tour this year. He starts quite late in the day, when the TV cameras and media focus will have lessened. And, he starts on the front 9, which is unquestionably the easier 9 to start on. I hope to see him find a couple of early birdies and find a groove that will set him up for the week. I also added a top 20 bet at a pretty huge 40/1 in case he plays well but just falls short.
Jason Dufner actually tops my rating here, but I want 18s. Henrik Stenson was not an instinctive pick at all this week, but a closer look at him shows him up well enough to be worth a play. In this less than top-draw field, Stenson's three straight top 10s up to and including the Scottish Open and headline stats for driving distance, accuracy and GIR within the top 30 of my recent PGA/European tour ranks, I believe him worthy of a play. Stenson has not won for some time now, but this has the feel of the sort of event he could return in. I am not going crazy with my points here, but this feels like an event that should suit. Course form = MC/MC, but I think he has the right game coming in to suit. Remember, Stenson has hardly had game before this season. He is a player again now and will be likely well up for this event. He starts early and on the front 9. Like Thompson, the chance exists for a good start that will set him up well for the event. As a final motivation, Stenson sits a precarious 112th in the Fed Ex cup race. He will want to be involved not just next week, but deep in to the Play-Offs. Getting the job done this week will go a long way to achieving that.
Kevin Stadler is a great player if you do this by stats, who does not always get things done in the real world. However, I really like this 125/1 shot this week. Stadler hits greens and has been doing just that in recent events too. This event is one where you can say that Stadler actually has got it done over the years. Stadler was finally edged on the 75th hole here by Ryan Moore in 2009 and was also 7th in 2007, albeit on a different course. The other added factor that I really like is that the switch to Bermuda should suit his eye. Stadler in the last couple of years has generally had his best results on Bermuda. Stadler has had 5 top 11s this year, 3 of which were on Bermudagrass. Let's hope he can start well and early to give us a great run this week.
JB Holmes tees it up for the first time here this week, but should find conditions to his liking. Holmes is a little erratic at times off the tee, but that should matter less than recent events this week. Holmes hits it a long way and has been hitting more than his share of greens in recent weeks. A good wedge player, Holmes will find a short iron in his hand, with the ability to attack the pin on a number of holes. Holmes is in progressive and impressive form too, shooting 27th, 15th and 12th in his last 3 events. I really feel he can get involved here and potentially challenge for the win.
Finally, I have kind of covered Jason Dufner. If he wins here, he goes atop the money list and then is almost a shoe-in to finish top 3. If he doesn't, then he is still of course in range and can get it done as the season goes on. Dufner generally finishes his season after the play-offs, but I am hoping his motivation to win the money list will see him play on. However, I am less convinced that Rory will dramatically alter his schedule to try and win the money list title and I am almost certain that Tiger Woods will not. Woods sits 1 and Rory 2 at time of writing. A big performance from Dufner could see him land this title and a continuation of his form over the season will see him challenge the top 3 at the very least. We have to take 3 places though, because it is Tiger and Rory and because the likes of Bubba and Zach are so close also . A big chance for no. 3 in this race to steal a march on no.s 1, 2, 4 and 5, who sit this week out.
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
0.2pts EW Kyle Thompson at 1000/1 (SkyBet, BetVictor) and 0.2pts top 20 at 40/1 (SkyBet)
1pt EW Henrik Stensson at 40/1 (Various)
1pt EW Kevin Stadler at 125/1 (Various)
1pt EW JB Holmes at 66/1 (BoyleSports)
Additional bet
2pt EW Jason Dufner to win the Money list at 10/1 (Various, but take 3 places and 1/5 odds)
As mentioned on Twitter, Wednesday night was always going to be my only hope of writing a preview. And, here it is, albeit a hasty one.
I have been keeping up with twitter whilst away and have heard a lot about how few players making the top 25 at the PGA the week before have then gone on to place at the Wyndham. Well, it is a bit of a red herring in my view. In 2010, only 2 players from the top 25 of the PGA PLAYED the next week at the Wyndham. In 2011, that had swelled to 4 players. Hardly a compelling stat then, that none of the 6 (Dufner/Petterson 2010, Dufner/Immelman/Toms/Haas 2011) made top 5. The simple fact is that the top players playing in the PGA use Wyndham as a gap week as a general rule ahead of the play-offs.
So, let us not eliminate anybody at all from our selections on this basis. However, at time of writing, Jason Dufner has come in to 12s, as has Webb Simpson, with Petterson now 18s. Asserting that any of these prices are value is not something I can readily do.
Petterson played well last week and has a great record here, but I am not sure I can have him within a few points of the favourite before the off. He went pretty deep last week and, despite the short journey here, his press coverage has been pretty full-on for a guy not usually so accustomed to the lime light. I would not be surprised were he to prosper here, but his MC when last well placed at the PGA coming in is enough to put me off, despite 4th in 2011 and 1st in 2008 on this course. The 1st in 2008 and subsequent 67th in 2009 also gives a clue as to how Petterson may cope this week as the media attention would have been similar in 2009 to this week before the off.
Simpson really impressed me in the 2nd round last week, after shaking off the rust of his planned absence from the game in the 1st round. 8th in 2010 and 1st in 2011 shows Simpson loves the course and plays it well. However, the change to Bermuda is a slight negative for me: Simpson is 40th in my Bermuda positive ranking, versus 22nd on Bentgrass (the green grass prior to this year's renovation). Despite the US Open win, Simpson's form has been a little less than stellar this year and he is not a 12/1 shot this week. He can win, but I can't have him at the price.
I was with Dufner for his maiden win and he has been good to me generally this year, but his record is indifferent in this event. He is a better player now of course, and he never contended last week, unlike the last two years in the PGA (5th 2012, 2nd 2011). I have nothing better than 26th on this course however and nothing better than 8th way back in 2004 to guide me here. With new greens set to play firmer and faster, Dufner may struggle a little. Bermuda grass greens are a slight negative versus Bent in my stats, but this less than top draw putter does not really have his results driven by excellence on the greens. Tee shots are arguably too easy here for Dufner's accuracy to really give him an edge over tougher tracks, although his approach play in to firmer greens will give him more presentable birdie opportunites than most if not all of the field. I have been on recent near misses for Dufner. Now I have omitted him, I do not want him to win this week...................but I do for the bet I will detail later.
The first pick for me is my 2nd 1000/1 pick of the year. The first 1000/1 pick, Brian Harman, had sneaky course form at the US Open and fell short, while Michael Thompson got it done at huge odds as one of the few others who also had indicators there. So, hopefully I am using the right logic this week also with my insane pick. This guy has the following form in 2012: MC (18 times), WD (once) and T57th. So, I am truly insane right? Well, quite possibly. But, there are some decent reasons for my selection and I do not think a 1000/1 dismissal is at all right. South Carolina resident (we are in NC this week) Kyle Thompson has 3 Nationwide tour wins on his CV, two of which are in the Rex Hospital Open. The Rex Hospital Open was won last year on a non too taxing course length wise with Bermuda greens, held in North Carolina. Sound familiar? This course should resonate with Thompson this week. I think Kyle Thompson is a talented player who just has lost his way on the main tour this year. He starts quite late in the day, when the TV cameras and media focus will have lessened. And, he starts on the front 9, which is unquestionably the easier 9 to start on. I hope to see him find a couple of early birdies and find a groove that will set him up for the week. I also added a top 20 bet at a pretty huge 40/1 in case he plays well but just falls short.
Jason Dufner actually tops my rating here, but I want 18s. Henrik Stenson was not an instinctive pick at all this week, but a closer look at him shows him up well enough to be worth a play. In this less than top-draw field, Stenson's three straight top 10s up to and including the Scottish Open and headline stats for driving distance, accuracy and GIR within the top 30 of my recent PGA/European tour ranks, I believe him worthy of a play. Stenson has not won for some time now, but this has the feel of the sort of event he could return in. I am not going crazy with my points here, but this feels like an event that should suit. Course form = MC/MC, but I think he has the right game coming in to suit. Remember, Stenson has hardly had game before this season. He is a player again now and will be likely well up for this event. He starts early and on the front 9. Like Thompson, the chance exists for a good start that will set him up well for the event. As a final motivation, Stenson sits a precarious 112th in the Fed Ex cup race. He will want to be involved not just next week, but deep in to the Play-Offs. Getting the job done this week will go a long way to achieving that.
Kevin Stadler is a great player if you do this by stats, who does not always get things done in the real world. However, I really like this 125/1 shot this week. Stadler hits greens and has been doing just that in recent events too. This event is one where you can say that Stadler actually has got it done over the years. Stadler was finally edged on the 75th hole here by Ryan Moore in 2009 and was also 7th in 2007, albeit on a different course. The other added factor that I really like is that the switch to Bermuda should suit his eye. Stadler in the last couple of years has generally had his best results on Bermuda. Stadler has had 5 top 11s this year, 3 of which were on Bermudagrass. Let's hope he can start well and early to give us a great run this week.
JB Holmes tees it up for the first time here this week, but should find conditions to his liking. Holmes is a little erratic at times off the tee, but that should matter less than recent events this week. Holmes hits it a long way and has been hitting more than his share of greens in recent weeks. A good wedge player, Holmes will find a short iron in his hand, with the ability to attack the pin on a number of holes. Holmes is in progressive and impressive form too, shooting 27th, 15th and 12th in his last 3 events. I really feel he can get involved here and potentially challenge for the win.
Finally, I have kind of covered Jason Dufner. If he wins here, he goes atop the money list and then is almost a shoe-in to finish top 3. If he doesn't, then he is still of course in range and can get it done as the season goes on. Dufner generally finishes his season after the play-offs, but I am hoping his motivation to win the money list will see him play on. However, I am less convinced that Rory will dramatically alter his schedule to try and win the money list title and I am almost certain that Tiger Woods will not. Woods sits 1 and Rory 2 at time of writing. A big performance from Dufner could see him land this title and a continuation of his form over the season will see him challenge the top 3 at the very least. We have to take 3 places though, because it is Tiger and Rory and because the likes of Bubba and Zach are so close also . A big chance for no. 3 in this race to steal a march on no.s 1, 2, 4 and 5, who sit this week out.
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
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