OneBet Racing Selections 7th June

7th June

Punchestown 
17.40 Drive on Regardless 4/1 -2pt Win WON +8PTS
18.10 Champagne Agent 4/1 -2pt Win -2PTS
18.45 Super Collider 6/1 -1pt Win -2PTS
19.20 Shot from the hip 9/4 -2pt Win -2PTS
19.50 Nearest the Pin 3/1 -2pt Win NR - Replacement Horse Double Seven 10/1 -1pt ew (OneBet Longshot - Major Harry 66/1 0.5Pts ew) -3PTS
20.20 Rudi Trucker 11/4 -2pt Win -2PTS
20.50 Summer Star 5/2 -2pt Win -2PTS

Meeting Total:-5PTS

OneBet Racing Selections -6th June

6th June

Cartmel
14.10 Ghabeesh 11/8 - 2pt Win -2PTS
14.40 Hidden Horizons 2/1 - 2pt Win -2PTS
15.15 Hathamore 11/4 - 2pt Win -2PTS (Pumboo 16/1-0.5pts e/w - backed with B365 on 5th June) +1.2PTS
15.50 General Hardi 6/1 - 2pt Win -2PTS
16.25 Oranger 12/1 - 1pt ew -2PTS
16.55 Pasture Bay 9/2 - 2pt Win -2PTS
17.25 Jolly Roger 4/1 -2pt Win +8PTS , Stanley Bridge 12/1 - 1pt ew -2PTS


Meeting Total:-2.8PTS

Golf Tips - Fedex St Jude Classic

Fedex St Jude Outright Selections


Spreadex selection
Robert Allenby 0.2 sell at 46 (spreadex)


Outright selections
1pt EW Joe Durant at 100/1 (Various)
1pt EW David Hearn at 125/1 (Various)

Previously advised
2pts EW David Toms at 33/1 (Now a best price of 25s), advised in the course form guide published on Monday  http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/06/golf-tips-fedex-st-jude-classic-course.html
1pt EW Bob Estes at 80/1 (Various), advised on Twitter.

The course
The St Jude Classic at TPC Southwind, Memphis is a difficult event to unpick this week.  In its usual place on tour as the precursor to the US Open, it is difficult to know exactly how the leading contenders will approach this week.  Whilst always useful to go in to a Major Championship in demonstrable good form, the merits of winning or challenging in the week prior are questionable.  First is the obvious mental and physical exertion associated with challenging at the business end of the tournament. Second is the media hype associated with being one of the form men going in to the year's 2nd major and added pressure on a golfer to follow up.

A quirk I noticed in glancing at previous winners is a strong association with Texas.  In the last 11 years, players born or raised in Texas have won in 2001 (Estes), 2005/2008 (Leonard), 2006 (Maggert), 2009 (Gay) and 2011 (Frazar).  6 out of the 11 winners in that time have strong Texas links.  If we add the other 5 winners in to the mix (Mattiace, Austin, Westwood, Toms twice), then we see that no players from the West coast have won here in that time.  Perhaps it won't be John Daly's week here then.  The other thing you will notice is that all of these players were over 30 when they won.  Experience is a desired trait here.

More important on this tight par 70 bermudagrass greened track is the ability to pay accurately around the course.  Driving distance is far from the most important attribute here.  Harrison Frazar actually finished 6th for driving distance last year, but you then have to scroll to Jhonattan Vegas in T32nd to find the next player to be in the top 10 in this category.  Accuracy from the tee is important, but king here is hitting greens and having the ability to putt well and scramble well when required.  The top 4 here last year were 8th, 2nd, 18th and 1st respectively for greens hit.  At only 73% greens hit by the stat leader last year (Villegas), TPC Southwind ranked as one of the toughest on tour in this category.  Clearly, the winner come Sunday will have dialled in their iron game better than most if not all.


The selections
Zach Johnson is favourite this week and rightly so.  With a pair of second places and a win last time out in his last 4 events, there is little question that Johnson is dialled in right now.  With a Ryder cup place now within his sights, Johnson can ill afford to let up either.  The question is whether single figure quotes can be backed.  I am not convinced.  Firstly, Johnson, despite his impeccable recent form is not a person to trust to stay hot for long.  I am well aware that I raised this as a reason for ignoring 12/1 last week which proved costly.  However, Johnson is a player who often performs in spells and I simply can not trust a single figure quote here.  My other consideration is the US Open in the following week.  Johnson has a pretty abject record in the US Open, but may feel that the tighter Olympic track could offer a chance for him to really contend.  I do wonder if he will be fully focussed on winning here.

Rory McIlroy has a slightly similar feel to Tiger last week for me.  Tiger had performed pretty poorly in the Masters, Wells Fargo Championship and Players Championship, before winning in impressive style last week.  In the same period, McIlroy has missed 3 cuts and added this event as an attempt to tune up ahead of his US Open title defence.  It could be that Rory dials in here and walks off with the event, but I am far from convinced that he is playing accurately enough to prosper here.  Again, I have to leave the 11/1 quotes.

I advised David Toms with a confident 2pt EW bet yesterday when Ladbrokes were a stand out 33/1.  That they are now hiding at 20/1 is indicative I believe of how wrong that price was.  25s is still generally available elsewhere, however, and that is still worth taking.  I mentioned Toms' record here in my course form preview, which includes 2 victories, 2 runners up finishes, 3rd, 4th and 10th in the last 10 visits here.  Toms is in the right place to challenge again this week, despite a missed cut when defending his Crowne Plaza title last time out.  It was Toms' putter that let him down that week (bentgrass).  However, for the first two rounds, he was right near the top of the sheets for driving accuracy and greens hit.  Previously on bermuda at the Players, Toms was 27th in putting.  I really think that he has an excellent chance here.

I have convinced myself also that Bob Estes is worth a play.  3rd in my course form ranks, I believe I said all I needed to in my course form preview "1st in 2001, 3rd in 2003, 2nd in 2004 and 8th in both 2005 and 2010 is noteworthy.  Add in 4 further top 30 finishes and only 2 MCs and you have a player who likes this course.  With only early prices to date, I am underwhelmed to see only 80/1 available.  Question is, do we see anything in Estes' current form to suggest he can fire again here?  Well, there is something in his recent game that suggests he is worth considering.  In 2011, Estes' stop start season consisted on only 13 events.  This year, Estes will be playing his 13th event this week.  Estes MC last time out at the Crowne Plaza and finished only 41st at the Byron Nelson.  However, Estes had the 10th best round there in round 2 and the best round in round 3 and has never played either event particularly well.   15th at the Players (14th in putts on Bermuda) prior to that was his best finish there so there is something there.  I would like to see triple figures, but he has my attention."


Estes is well worth a play this week.

Harrison Frazar's win in 2011 at 275/1 showed that big priced winners can be found here.  Indeed, in 2010, it was only the then unheralded Robert Garrigus dropping 3 shots on the 72nd hole, which allowed Westwood in to a play-off that he eventually won.  Given this, I am happy to look further down the list for my final selections.

Joe Durant gets the nod at 100/1 for me this week.  Durant was a fast finishing 3rd last time out at the Byron Nelson.  Indeed, he led the round ranks for both rounds 3 and 4.  Durant certainly fits my over 30 brief as a tour veteran in his 49th year.  I am drawn to Durant for his impeccable accuracy generally and noticeably in recent events.  In the last 4 events, Durant has been 16th, 1st, 13th and 3rd for driving accuracy and 31st, 5th, 9th and 21st (and 8th before those events also) for greens hit.  Put simply, Durant is the type of player who will do the simple things well and that is important here.  Durant only has a 25th in 2007 as any recent hint that he can play well here.  However, I believe there will be a big price or two near the top the leaderboard come Sunday and Durant is certainly one who can.  I hope his US Open qualifying efforts have not taken their toll.

My final vote goes to David Hearn. who actually ranks 6th in my tournament predictor ratings and is quoted at 125/1 this week.  Hearn is actually 10th best in the field using my usual 3 tournament form guide coming in to the event and again is really dialled in of late in accuracy from tee to green.  In the last two events, Hearn has posted 4 rounds in the top 15 best in the field.  Although 47th last year is hardly irresistible, Hearn sat within the top 20 after round 3 and was only denied a good finish after falling away on the final day.  Indeed, Hearn and Villegas sat together on -2 going in to the final day.  Villegas shot 64 to finish 3rd and Hearn went in entirely the opposite direction.  Adept at keeping bogeys from the card and a useful scrambler, Hearn will go well this week if he can find a better groove with the putter.  I am happy to chance that he does.

I am also adding Allenby in the Spreadex market.  As I mentioned in my course form guide, 6 top 17 finishes out of 7 is enough for me to make a play.  0.2pt sell at 46.

Regards

Dave (OneBet)

Golf Tips - Nordea Masters Outright selections

Nordea Masters Outright selections

2pts EW Sergio Garcia at 12/1 (Various) Result EW Profit 4pts
1pt EW Magnus A Carlsson at 55/1 (Various) Loss 2pts
1pt EW Michael Hoey at 125/1 (Various) Loss 2pts
0.5pts EW Scott Hend at 200/1 (BoyleSports, 175/1 SkyBet) Loss 1pt

Total loss: 1pt

The Nordea Masters returns to Bro Hof for the 3rd successive year, having been the scene of arguably the most brutal playing conditions on tour last year in round 4.  In the first three days, Alex Noren was able to forge a stunning 11 shot lead in reaching -20 after 3 days.  However, in extreme winds on day 4, Richard Finch's fantastic 69 was the only sub-70 round.  Norens 15 under par eventually landed the event last year, with Finch's -8 landing 2nd place.  I expect something between the two to be good enough this year, similar to Johnson's -11 winning mark in 2010.

A brief look at the history of the event shows that Swedes have won their home event in 3 of the last 4 years and in each of the last 2 years at Bro Hof.  However, this is not necessarily definitive as the instance of Swedish players high on the leaderboard has actually been fairly sparse in the last 2 years (Lemke 3rd is the only other top 15 from a Swedish player last year).

There has been a lot written about driving importance this week and I subscribe to that, but only to an extent.  A brief glance at the leaderboard in the last two years has shown a genuine mix of long players, accurate players and players who have putted well in the mix.  I actually believe the single most important stat is par 5 proficiency.  There are 5 par 5s and 5 par 3s on this par 72 layout.  Last year, as mentioned previously, Noren was -20 after 3 rounds, -12 of which was on par 5s.  Richard Finch finished -8 and played the par 5s in -8.  2010 winner Johnson played the par 5s in -10 and won on -11.  Put simply, any player who can pay the par 5s well this week will prosper.  On the flip side, there are 8 par 4s, all of which measure well over 400 yards.  The winner this week will probably have played the par 5s in around -10 and been level or better on par 4s.

It is here that I have a conundrum with my headline pick of Sergio Garcia.  Garcia sits 3rd on the PGA tour for par 5 birdie or better precentage (and also a useful 22nd for par 3 average) . However, his par 4 scoring average is outside the top 100.  So, the question for me is whether he can hold up well enough on par 4s to prosper this week.  I believe he can.  In looking at Garcia's most recent events, I noted Garcia sat outside the top 100 for driving accuracy at the players.  However, last time out at the Crowne Plaza, Garcia sacrificed a little in length overall, which yielded a marked improvement in driving accuracy.  I think Garcia can afford to be a little more aggressive here in general and will be able to keep the ball in play off the tee well enough to score well on par 4s.  As you would expect, his GIR stats remain top draw, with 6th, 4th, 17th and 30th in his last 4 events.  Putting is not critical here, so Garcia's sometimes suspect stroke will not be so exposed this week.  Garcia birdies 54% of his par 5s on the US tour.  If he does that this week, he will be -11 on par 5s come the week's end.  I think he has enough in the rest of his game to win the event if that is so.

Although I do not necessarily think it is a given that a Swedish player wins this week, I do expect somebody in the mix.  The ultra-accurate, ultra-reliable Magnus Carlsson is certainly worth a play at 55/1 this week.  Carlsson shot a +5 over 77 on day 1 at the Wales Open, but "only" lost the event by 7 shots to confirm that he is still in good shape with a game that previously had him at the head of the tour's accuracy and scoring average stats.  The doubt I have is that he is yet to break 70 in 6 rounds here, but Carlsson is a different beast so far this year.  It is worth chancing that he gets in the mix and then takes advantage of his consistency to get in the paying positions come Sunday.

To finish, two players who I think are over-priced this week.  First up is the enigma that is Michael Hoey.  At 125/1, in a field that has only 3 proven world class players at the head of the field and with a win this year and two victories last year, I have to give him a chance this week.  This is a bit of a punt I know, as Hoey has nothing better than 60th in 5 events.  However, that is Hoey.  Hoey missed the cut at the relaitvely lowly KLM open last year and then beat a top class field at the Alfred Dunhill in his next event.  His Trophee Hassan win this year came after a poor weekend dropped him out of contention in the Open De Andalucia.  There is almost no rhyme or reason to his game.  However, this course can suit him if he finds a groove.  Hoey was 14th here in 2010 and only 8 shots from the leader.  I am more than happy to take 125/1 that he shows up again this week.

Scott Hend went MC, 62, MC, MC before finishing 4th last year, so the 1, 11, 43, MC, 74 form line this year makes him a shoe-in for a victory!  OK, maybe not - all bar the 74th last week were on the Asain tour.  However, Hend has the right game for this course if on song.  Long, with the ability to dial in with his irons and putt well on this course, Hend really caught my eye again at the Wales open, despite his lowly finish.  The reason is his middle rounds there.  Hend was 2nd best in the field in round 2 and 24th in round 3.  At 200/1, I think he is a massive price to repeat his challenging form of last year and is certainly worth a small investment

Regards

Dave (OneBet)

OneBet Racing Selections - 5th June

5th June

Ffos Las
14.30 All Nighter - 11/2 1pt Win -1PTS
15.00 Mr Goofy - 6/1 2pt Win -2PTS
15.35 Peaks of Fire 17/2 - 1pt ew NR
16.10 Sieglende 9/1 - 1pt ew  WON +10.8PTS
16.40 Sweet World 9/1 - 1pt ew -2PTS
17.15 Calypso Bay 4/1 - 2pt Win  -2PTS
17.45  Your Tepee or Mine - 2/1 2pt Win  WON @5/1 +10PTS


Meeting Total: +13.8PTS


Downpatrick
14.25 Bank The Bucks 9/4 - 2pt Win -2PTS
14.55 Westhaven  NAP 4/5 - 4pt Win , OneBet Longshot Patsy Dan 25/1 1pt ew -6PTS
15.30 Clonsilla Affairs 5/2 - 2pt Win -2PTS
16.05 Atimatov NAP - 7/4 - 3pt Win -3PTS
16.35 The Snuffler 10/1 - 1pt ew
17.10 Right Strategy 9/2 - 2pt Win
17.40 Cosmic Wonder 3/1 - 2pt Win

Meeting Total: -18PTS


Daily Total- -4.2PTS

Golf Tips - Fedex St Jude Classic Course form guide

Fedex St Jude Classic Course form

Outright selections : 2pts EW David Toms at 33/1 (Ladbrokes only)


St Jude outright selections in full http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/06/golf-tips-fedex-st-jude-classic.html

Hi all

As usual, my course form analysis below.

My course analysis goes back to 2001 and I analyse in the following way:

• Tournament experience, with a maximum 8 points if a player has played 6 or more times
• Tournament history, with a maximum 10 points if a player has ever won the event, with further increments down to down to 2 points for any top 25.  
• Tournament form in 2012, 2011 and 2010, with up to 4 points available for each year.  
• Course experience points - As per tournament form, but for the specific course in use.  In reality, this is not a factor here as Muirfield host course in this period with exception of 2007, when 3 courses were used including Muirfield.  

As we are looking at course form in years gone by, not all in the field make the list due to 2012 being their debut year. 

So, looking purely at course and history form, with a ranking system that aims to differentiate between players who do consistently well and those who don't (either one hit wonders or those consistent performers who do not really challenge), we get the following results, with further analysis below the table:

Brian Gay tops the rankings due to his comfortable victory in 2009.  He followed that up with 15th in 2010 and has been 4th (2007) and 5th (2004) also.  The reason Gay and a number of other short guys challenge here is because the test is really not off the tee.  Driving distance is a negligible attribute, although Harrison Frazar was 6th for distance when winning last year.  This is a 2nd shot golf course, with dialled in iron players highly desired.  Gay's recent form is not great however, although a 4th place on bermuda (as per here) at the Valero Texas in April serves as a reminder that he can fire if he finds his groove.

Harrison Frazar won last year as mentioned before.  That he ranks joint first tells me I should consider how I calculate my rankings.  Frazar ranks high for his 14th in 2009 and 1st last year.  However, 3 MCs and a 69th on the four other occasions he has teed up here suggest we should approach Frazar with extreme caution here.  Frazar actually started the year extremely well, finishing 5th and then 2nd in his first two events and sitting 2nd at halfway in the WM Phoenix Open (his 4th event).  However, in 36 rounds since then, only 3 times has he had a good round versus the field.  46th last time out on bermuda at the Players, Frazar actually performed very well in rounds 1 and 3.  However, his putting was not exactly stellar for the week and there is little to suggest he can potentially defend his title here.

Bob Estes is joint 3rd and a look through his last 11 appearances here shows some impressive results.  1st in 2001, 3rd in 2003, 2nd in 2004 and 8th in both 2005 and 2010 is noteworthy.  Add in 4 further top 30 finishes and only 2 MCs and you have a player who likes this course.  With only early prices to date, I am underwhelmed to see only 80/1 available.  Question is, do we see anything in Estes' current form to suggest he can fire again here?  Well, there is something in his recent game that suggests he is worth considering.  In 2011, Estes' stop start season consisted on only 13 events.  This year, Estes will be playing his 13th event this week.  Estes MC last time out at the Crowne Plaza and finished only 41st at the Byron Nelson.  However, Estes had the 10th best round there in round 2 and the best round in round 3 and has never played either event particularly well.   15th at the Players (14th in putts on Bermuda) prior to that was his best finish there so there is something there.  I would like to see triple figures, but he has my attention.  

Villegas was 8th and 3rd here last two years, so has demonstrated course affinity.  Last year, his 3rd is even more impressive when you consider it was his only top 25 in the first 19 events of his season.  Since then, there have been suggestions that his form is slowly returning.  3 top 25s season to date shows he is in a better place, but he is still far from the heights he once scaled.  Villegas has produced an MC and 70th place finish in the last two events, but was 32nd and 18th prior to that.  The 18th would have been a championship contending week as well but for an abject round 3.  Villegas is 40s in the early prices and I would need to see more, but he has a chance here.

David Toms, MC last year aside, has an excellent record here.  From 2002, this is his St Jude CV : 4th, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 10th, 3rd, 37th, 2nd, 29th, MC.  If Toms plays well, he places and quite possibly wins.  The Olympic US Open course may have grabbed his attention as a course he has a chance on as well (big drivers may be less dominant there than recent US Opens) so Toms may see this as a serious warm up for the US Open as well.  4th and 1st in accuracy and 6th and 4th in GIR in his last two outings, Toms is a hot putter away from challenging here.  He surprised many (including me) by missing the cut in trying to defend his Crowne Plaza title.  However, 27th in putting on his way to 10th at the Players shows he is not far away.  33/1 with Ladbrokes only is worth taking.

Robert Allenby in T7th is interesting and worth a closing mention.  In 7 appearances here between 2002 ans 2011, Allenby has been 9th, 17th, MC, 12th, 2nd, 4th and 13th.  Whilst last week was not spectacular, all four rounds were OK and hint at a returning consistency.  I highlighted Cink last week as a great spread bet and he duly placed well inside his sell line.  Allenby appears to be also worth a glance on finishing positions this week.  I will look at the line and advise if I believe it still to be value.  I would expect Allenby to be a sell price of somewhere around 48 and will advise a bet if so.

Regards

Dave (OneBet)

  

OneBet Racing Selections 4th June

4th June

Cartmel
14.05 Cabora (Win) LOST , Isabelle B (EW) WON
14.35 Call Back NAP - 4pt Win WON +2PTS
15.10 Ballyvoneen 6/4 - 3pt Win LOST -3PTS
15.45 Kingsmere (Win), Mystified (EW) WON
16.20 Chip N Pin - Win (OneBet Longshot - Tweedys Choice) LOST
16.55 Oh Right 6/1 - 2 pt Win WON +12 PTS
17.30 Oniz Tiptoes 5/2 -2pt Win LOST -2PTS

Meeting Total: +9PTS 
Decent days racing at Cartmel, just got back and knackered !
(No points added for Isabelle B or Mystified even though advised and won on the course !)