AT&T Pebble Beach 18 Hole Matchbets 12th Feb

1.5pts Ricky Barnes to beat Padraig Harrington at 11/8 (Totesport, Betfred)
Padraig Harrington played Pebble Beach extremely well on Friday, shooting a -6 score.  However, I am willing to oppose him here in a match bet with Ricky Barnes, who is much higher than the sort of 11/10 range I expected.  Barnes himself played nicely at Pebble yesterday, with a solid -2 score.
There are a few reasons to be keen on this bet.  First, Barnes is having a solid week, with only 3 dropped shots through 54 holes.  Harrington, after a Bogey, Par, Bogey, Double bogey, Par finish yesterday, has now dropped 8 shots this week.  This has been a long week, with rounds taking in the region of 6 hours to complete.  I want to side with players who keep bogeys off the card for Sunday and there is a now familiar feeling that Harrington is falling off his game slightly.
Barnes has not contended much in recent times.  However, when considering his ability to compete on day 4 in exalted company, we do not have to go far back to remember a string of majors in which Barnes contended strongly at the head of the field.  In more recent times, Barnes finished 4th at last year's Honda Classic, shooting the 5th best score of the day to finish in the paying places for punters.  Also, at the Heritgae, Barnes entered the final round in 5th and improved to 4th with a solid 69.
Harrington is a complete contrast to that.  In his major winning prime of a few years ago, Harrington was a tenacious day 4 competitor to be feared down the home stretch.  However, recent events have suggested a fragility when in contention.  At the recent Volvo Golf Champions event in South Africa, Harrington fell away from contention with a poor last day.  At the Iskandar Johor Open (which he was defending), Harrington was just off the lead before a similar failure.  Similarly, at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, Harrington produced an average day 4 to fall away from contention, while the likes of winner Hoey and McIlroy kicked on and really went for the title.  Harrington echoes Goosen in this respect for me.  Former greats in the game who still have the attributes to shoot low scores and contend, but who somehow lack that mental edge required to drive a big result.  Whether I am proved wrong today or in the near future is of course possible, but there are enough signs to question Harrington here.
I expected Barnes to be 11/10 and personally regard him a marginal favourite.  This is a must bet for me

Wigan v Leeds Superleague

Over 8 tries 11/8 (Stan James) 2Pts
Anytime Tryscorer - Sam Tomkins 5/4 (Skybet 1.5 Pts)

Football Tips BTS system 10th-13th Feb 2012

Dear all,

The Cottbus bet advised earlier on Twitter won to give us a nice start.  Let's hope we continue in the same vein over the weekend

Premier League bets February 11th 2012

Dear all,

Latest bets below.  I may add further bets as corner odds become more available.  If so, I will advise on twitter as well as posting here

Manchester United vs Liverpool

Manchester United vs Liverpool 1pt most goals 2nds half at 6/5 (Coral, 11/10 Stan James)

Manchester United vs Liveprool 1pt under 1.5 goals at 11/4 (Various)

Manchester United vs Liveprool 1pt HT draw at 5/4 (Bet365, 6/5 Coral)

Blackburn vs QPR  Blackburn vs QPR 1pt Both teams to score - No at 6/5 (StanJames, 11/10 various)

Bolton vs Wigan  Bolton vs Wigan 1pt over 2.5 goals at 7/9 (188 Bet, 8/11 Various)

Bolton vs Wigan 1pt Bolton HT/FT at 12/5 (Ladbrokes. 23/10 188Bet)

Everton vs Chelsea  Everton vs Chelsea 1pt Everton to lead at HT at 10/3 (William Hill, 3/1 Stan James)

Fulham vs Stoke  Fulham vs Stoke 1pt Both teams to score at 10/11 (Various)

Sunderland vs Arsenal  Sunderland vs Arsenal 1pt over 2.5 goals at 22/23 (188Bet, 10/11 Coral/Hills)

Sunderland vs Arsneal 1pt Sundlernad HT/FT at 11/2 (BlueSq, 888Sport, 188Bet)

Swansea vs Norwich  Swansea vs Norwich 1pt under 2.5 goals at 10/11 (BetVictor, 9/10 Bet365)

Swansea vs Norwich 1pt Swansea HT/Draw FT at 16/1 (Various)

Tottenham vs Newcastle  Tottenham vs Newcastle 1pt Both teams to score at 19/20 (William Hill, 10/11 Ladbrokes)

Saints v Salford

Saints 2nd game of the campaign is at their new home "Langtree Park" and it is sure to become the new fortress and this game offers a great opportunity for the free flowing Saints to score some tries. Albeit early in the season Saints have some great attacking options in Lance Hohaia, Jon Wilkin, Jonny Lomax and the two players earmarked below for anytime try scorer.

Some early value offered with Sky Bet on try scorers for this game. James Roby and Lee Gaskell play a leading role in driving Saints forward throughout the game. They are attacking players and are offered at the prices below which are worth snapping up early:

Anytime Try Scorer (Sky Bet)
Lee Gaskell 11/8 - 2 Pts
James Roby 7/4 - 2 Pts

Dubai Desert Classic Tips

Post tournament synopsis


Last week's event in Dubai was a frustrating one.  Of the selections, Bjorn and Colsaerts both failed by a single shot to make the money places - both failed to birdie the par 5 18th to steal some money back for the OneBet team.


Both players will look back and think they could have won the event.  Bjorn in particular had the event in his grasp.  After 14 holes of the third round, Bjorn shared the lead with Westwood.  However, 3 bogeys in his last 4 holes and a slow start to round 4 put paid to any hopes of winning the event.  I have backed Bjorn without success recently.  I probably need to see quotes of 30/1 before I consider him again at present as his consistency is not quite there over 4 days.  


Colsaerts spent a day standing still and that really cost him overall. He played quite well in round 4, but frustratingly, bogeys at semi-regular intervals consistently derailed his charge and he fell just short.


Westwood should have won the event. I advised he was the best bet of the leading trio, but the inability to take a tournament that was just waiting for him to do so confirms that it was wise to lay off the 11/1 quotes.  


Cabrera-Bello won well in the end and capitalised on the door that Westwood left wide open.  After he headed the leaderboard on Thursday, I thought "him again".  One to watch for this sort of market as he is a streaky player that can go on hot runs during a round.  



1.5pts EW Thomas Bjorn at 22/1 (Various)
1pt EW Nicolas Colsaerts at 35/1 (Vairious)
1pt EW Paul Lawrie at 35/1 (Bet365, Sporting Bet)
0.5pt EW joost Luiten at 80/1 (Bodog, 6places.  66s general).
0.2pts EW Raphael Jacquelin at 150/1 (Bet365, Skybet)
0.3pts EW Michael Hoey at 110/1 (Bet365, 100s general)


2 points Michael Hoey to beat Mark Foster and George Coetzee in an 18 hole match bet at 23/10 (Stan James, 9/4 skyBet, Betvictor)

Tournament guide
So, time to back up our 50/1 winner from last week with another this.  That is the plan at least.  


I make no apologies for going back this week to familiar faces in the form of Bjorn, Lawrie, Jacquelin and Luiten.  We remain on the desert swing the headline brief is similar in a number of respects.  I want ball strikers this week who can finesse their way around the course.  I also need players who can handle any wind that is likely to come.  Putting is less prevalent here than recent events, but the greens are fast enough to cause problems. Finally, I need players who are already in form and confident in their game when tackling what is a difficult track if the wind blows.  


As befits the most prestigious of the desert swing events, a fine European field has assembled again.  The event has been won largely by big name players in good form, although the likes of O'Meara, Coceres and Derksen certainly buck that trend.


If the wind does blow we may need a little luck in the timing of our players out, although by picking 7 we have ensured that most of the day is covered!  




The players I didn't pick
The claims of Mcilroy, Kaymer and Westwood are obvious here.  Westwood has never won the event, but just failed to beat Jimenez a couple of years ago, losing out only in a play-off.  So, no question he can get the job done.  In terms of value, Westwood is actually the closest to getting a pick this week, but he leaves enough doubt with recent form to suggest he might fall short again; I would want to go win only on any of the top 3 if I were to back them.  Mcllroy, winner in 2009, is rightly a clear favourite.  His form is stunning.  However, I am not willing to take a 4/1 price on him getting it done here.  For such a talent, his win to tournament ratio is pretty dire.  Until he starts to win consistently, 4/1 is a long way from a backable price, especially in this field.  If you consider that he was 7/1 a couple of tournaments back and failed to win there, then he must be left alone.  Kaymer's win ratio is well documented, but despite a decent finish last time out, he was never going to win that event.  He does not look like winning right now and this is not the tournament to back a turn around in his game.  Kaymer is a horses for courses kind of player (usually), so I happily omit him here.


Robert Rock is a nervous omission, given the win last time out on a course that I believe he was not really well suited to win at.  Quiros also has great credentials in the desert as does Dyson, but I believe the bookmakers have defended their position well enough at the prices offered.  Peter Hanson has some history in this event also, but I do not like quotations anywhere near 20/1 for him.  



This week's tips
Had Thomas Bjorn not shot +7 in round1 last week, we would be looking at a 3rd and another place finish in the last two events and a 16/1 quotation.  So, whilst his bad round was terrible for my assured tip last week, it is good news this.  Bjorn won this event in 2001, so can clearly play the course - he fended off Tiger that time.  But, we can place that indicator as secondary to his recent form (79 aside) on the desert swing, allied to his triple winning 2011 and proclamations of being back in love with golf.  My concern is that he has not started well enough in either of the last two events to have a shot at the win.  A good start this week and we should be close on Sunday.


Nicolas Colsaerts is a fine young player, who continues to perform well on tour and threaten to add to his win in 2011.  Critically here, we have a man who is highly adept at hitting greens.  Had I not spent so much on the outrights, I would have considered a 1st round leader bet on Colsaerts, who led the field in his season opening event and did so also on tour last year.  But, I am happy to take his outright price here.  Colsaerts is 15 points higher in the betting than Quiros, but in undoubtedly better form.  He is worth a punt at 40s this week.


I said everything about Paul Lawrie in my pre and post tounrament analysis of Lawire http://onebettips.blogspot.com/2012/02/commercial-bank-qatar-masters-tips.html and so will say little more than the fact that he is the form man in Europe and states himself this is the best he has ever played.  I can not omit him at the moment and while odds are so much bigger than the top 6 in the betting.  


I backed Luiten at 100s a few weeks back, saying that his ball striking was exactly as required for the event.  However, my stated concerns over his putting on a tougher track were sadly born out by a good but non-challenging 4 days.  This week, I believe the lessened putting challenge can potentially bring Luiten in to play.  If he can gain some confidence on day 1, expect him to go well.


Michael Hoey won twice last year, but remains under-rated by bookmakers.  the two factors which appeal this week are his T15 last year, which shows he can handle the track.  Also, Hoey finished 12th last year in Qatar - an event where I would not really expect him to feature.  45th last year in Qatar before a T15 here, my hope is that he is arriving in better form and can get in the mix.  when Hoey is in the mix, he is actually one of the better finishers on tour.  I have backed Hoey in the 3-ball as Mark Foster has described the last two days of practice as amongst the worst of his career.  So, if we assume that carries in to the event, it is a matchbet with Coetzee.  Hoey was 9th in Abu Dhabi recently and led the field after day 1 of the Alfred Dunhill.  Although this bet is by no means a given, at 23/10 it is great value.


Finally, a tip which will turn @onebetuk cold.  I tipped Jacquelin at 125s last week and he missed the cut.  Well, he is back at 150s this and I want to have him onside again.  the price is farcical for a player of his ability in my view.  See the above blog for wider thoughts on Jacquelin, but his T20th here shows he can play the course.  A fine ball striker and scrambler, he has game to challenge here.  

At&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am Tips

1.5pts EW Hunter Mahan at 22/1 (take Bodog's 6 places, but 22s widely avaialble)
1pt EW Spencer Levin at 40/1 (Various)
1pt EW Sean O'Hair at 50/1 (Various)
0.5pts EW Cameron Tringale at 90/1 (Bet365, 80s various)

Tournament guide
Anybody who read my synopsis for the Human challenge - a Pro-am event played on 3 different courses - might be anticipating a series of highly priced picks who can turn up in a random format event.  However, the Pebble Beach event is an entirely different proposition, littered with big name winners and perhaps more importantly, winners who have deomanstrated recently that their overall game is in fine order.

Spyglass, Monterey and Pebble Beach are used in rotation for this event, with Pebble Beach used again for the final round.  All are around 6800 yards, with Monterey being by far the easiest course.  Despite the modest yardage, Pebble Beach and Spyglass actually ranked amongst the toughest par 72 courses on tour last year.

Technical tracks such as Spyglass and Pebble Beach demand accuracy and a player who is confident in their game and ball striking.  Confidence is bred by players who have turned up well in recent tournaments and demonstrated they are playing well.  You are unlikely to find your game this week, but will be found out if all elements are not working well.  Previous winners are a succession of players who have demonstrated form in recent build up tournaments.

The challenge of Spyglass and Pebble Beach does not diminish the importance of Monterey either.  The headline brief is to get the scoring done at Monterey and stay solid in the other 3 rounds.  Phil Mickelson, a previous winner in 2007, largely failed to challege last year due to a poor 71 at Monterey.

That said, the pro-am format does also give a different atmosphere to normal events, with the amateurs present even after the cut line is introduced at the end of day 3.

The players I didn't pick
So to the selections.  I am looking for players who hit greens, can keep themselves out of trouble and putt really well on what are tricky Po Annua greens.  I also want players in form, preferably with demonstrable prowess previously at Pebble Beach.  Coastal course positives are also sought, with British Open prowess also a consideration.  Finally, scrambling may be key due to the small greens and likelihood that GIR will be lower than usual this week for most.

At the head of the market, I am willing to overlook the top four.  A lot of people are srabbling to get on Woods while the 11/2 is still there - Woods opened at a general 6/1.  However, given all I have said about players having to be at one with their game, I still have enough doubts in Woods to leave him alone.  Sure, he has a definite chance, but I am not happy enough to take the outright W price and I certainly am not putting my faith in a big bet to get a marginal place return.

Dustin Johnson has won twice here recently and undoubtedly has the right credentials to get it done.  However, there are too many questions about his form.  I opposed him correctly in a match bet last week and he showed no signs at all that he was in the right place to come and win here.  Fowler should be regularly competing for tournament victories.  That he is not is something that is not ability based and he will surely get there.  However, while he does, I am happy to back against him finding the consistency that deserted him last week.

Phil's odds have inevitably contracted.  Had the 25/1 still been avaialble, I might have considered him this week.  However, his form in the key areas is fairly abject in recent weeks and he is overlooked.

A quick word about Bryce Molder.  I wanted to pick him, but can't at the prices offered.  But, a serious chance this week.

This week's tips
Hunter Mahan, on the other hand, is playing very nicely and has attractive stats in driving accuracy, GIR and putting, all of which I believe will be key this week.  A fine player and in form, I expect him to put up a big challenge.

Spencer Levin should have won last week and effectively gave the title away.  However, I am willing to back the fact that he arrives this week of clear mind and able to produce the sort of game that fits this week's brief perfectly.  Levin is a very good player of tough tracks.  He finished 9th in the Canadian Open last year at Shaughnessey, exactly the sort of positive sign that we need to see ahead of this week.  Indeed, Levin had a string of strong results early season (including T4 here) at tougher courses, before fading in the middle of the year.  If he is in contention after round 1, we can expect a good run from him this week.  I would also point you twards the first round leader market with Levin.  He is playing Monterey first, has been 1st and 3rd after round 1 in his last two events, and led the field by round 1 three times in the first 13 weeks of 2011.  I can only see prices on Betfair thus far (35s), but well worth a consideration.  I hoped he would play Monterey first, as his swing and confidence will be less examined on that course, which gives the outright bet the best chance after the issues in round 4 last week.

Sean O'Hair makes our team at 50/1.  O'Hair won the aforementioned Canadian Open last year, since which time he has strung together a series of good performances.  A fine striker of the ball, and with two top 40 finishes in the last two years when in poorer form, O'Hair can step up here this week.  Also, he has had strong results in the past in the British Open.

Finally, a small play on Camron Tringale.  Tringale finished a creditable 4th at the recent Farmers Insurance Open and, away from the main tour, missed a 12 footer to win the Pebble Beach Invitational in November 2011 (he then missed the 2 footer for par and lost by a stroke).  I like the link between the Farmers and here, as there is a similar putting challenge for the players.  Tringale ranked 18th for putting at Torrey Pines.  Tringale starts at Spyglass and if he has a solid first round, he could give us a real run at bigger odds.