US PGA Outright selections http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/08/golf-tips-us-pga-championship-outright.html
Hi all.
In competitive terms, Kiawah is very lightly raced. In professional golf on the men's tour, we only have the 1991 Ryder Cup, the 1997 and 2003 WGC World Cup and 2007 Senior PGA Championship to give us any guide in terms of demonstrable tournament form. Kiawah is a pretty unique test. Dubbed the War on the Shore in 1991, significant changes have been made to try and give players more of a fair test should the wind blow next week. Make no mistake - if the wind blows, this will test players to the full.
The difficulty or otherwise of the holes on the course will depend largely upon wind strength and direction. Colin Montgormerie won the individual award during the 1997 World Cup in benign conditions, but only 6 players were under par in 2007 after a brutal opening day. In the Ryder Cup of 1991, players were hitting as much as 3W in to the par 3 17th, a hole that earlier in the event had been attacked with short irons.
The crocs around here are the very least of the players' concern. My hole guide then will mention a little about "if the wind blows" but not much. The long range weather forecast is not so bad to date, but we all know that long range weather forecasts are sometimes less than perfect.
Hole 1
396 yards: Par 4
This hole should offer plenty of birdie opportunities during the week. The hole really is all about the drive. Although quite a tight fairway, a good drive will leave players a short iron to a fairly receptive green. Betfair traders may look to get players onside who find the short stuff from the tee, with a potential trade 25 minutes later after the par 5 2nd is completed.
Hole 2
557 yards: Par 5
Following the relatively easy 1st, players next have a shortish par 5 to attack. Longer hitters who can shape their ball right to left from the tee will have a makeable second shot to the green, if wind allows. Going left off the tee is not an option, with wasteland running down the left. Right is not good either, although the effect is that the hole becomes a 3 shot hole more than it makes the hole treacherous to par. The hole has additional complexity in that two areas of marshland run across the course. Poor/short tee shots may necessitate a lay up between the two marshland areas, which really makes it difficult to attack the pin if tucked away on the right of a narrow green. Bogey is possible if players are too greedy and overshoot on their 3rd shot. Players, if unable to reach in two, will hope to get close to the large sanded area short of the green to leave a shot wedge to the pin.
Players chasing on the final day will be looking to start hot on the final day; it gets much tougher as the holes go on.
Hole 3
390 yards: Par 4
The shortest par 4 on the course next, which again offers potential birdie opportunities. The tee shot is generous too, and players have a wide landing area, leaving a likely wedge to the tee. However, with the green sloping away on all sides and elevated, the short 2nd shot will leave players looking rather foolish and frustrated if they run off the green and fail to get up and down. Players again will benefit from a right to left shot shape from the tee, leaving them on the left side of the fairway and able to attack the pin from the best angle.
If looking to back players on betfair for quick profits, now may be a good time to assess your options. The next hole is tough.
Hole 4
458 yards: Par 4
I have said it on the previous two holes, but again a right to left shape is desired from the tee to leave the ball residing on the left portion of the fairway. Bubba any one? Phil? This is a tough hole and, in to a wind, the drive will dictate whether a player can even reach in 2, never mind attack the pin. Expect to see some players opting to trust their ability to get up and down after the second shot. The landing area is wide from the tee, but marshland can interfere with the drive if not straight.
A slightly elevated shot, with 4 waste areas surrounding the green makes the 2nd shot tough if a long iron is required. Expect some big scores on this hole.
Hole 5
188 yards: Par 3
A short par 3, which can really be a difficult proposition if affected by wind. Missing the green is not a great option, so players will be tempted to play towards the safer portion of the green if the wind blows, at which point the huge ridge in the middle of the green comes in to play. The hole plays at its most difficult when the pin is over sand on the left of the greeen. Missing the green right or even making the green right and below the ridge makes a 2-putt far from a gimme. Again, a right to left tendency may offer some benefits here as will a high ball flight if the pin is cut left.
Hole 6
480 yards: Par 4
Again, a right to left shot shape is desired from the tee here as players can open up the approach to the green if in the left portion of the fairway. Players who can not shape the ball here may find their tee ball leaking right and in to the rough, which makes the second shot more challenging. The main danger in approaching the green is the sand to the left of the hole. Also, long putts are best avoided here in a difficult, undulating green.
Hole 7
579 yards: Par 5
This hole will yield plenty of putts at eagle over the week provided the wind is not harshly against golfers. A left to right tee shot is probably of most help, particularly with a prevailing wind. However, the tee shot should not cause too many problems for players this week. The second shot plays in to a narrowing fairway and green, but after a good drive, players will be eyeing a minimum of birdie on this hole. Players must not miss the hole left with their second approach.
Hole 8
198 yard: Par 3
The difficulty of this hole will be determined by the wind. The green narrows at the back and long is not an option, which means that the centre of the green is always a sound option, particularly when the pin is cut at the back of the green. With a prevailing wind, players will find difficulty in being long enough to get on to an elevated green, while ensuring they do not over hit to sand at the back of the green.
Hole 9
494 yards: Par 4
Another nice hole for players who have an affinity for Augusta, players able to shape the ball from right to left with both their tee shot and approach shot have best chance of threatening the pin on this hole. Danger lurks too far left from the tee and a ball drifting right will make the second shot long and possible too long in to the wind for some. Players will want to clear the ridge in the middle of the green for shots to the left portion of the green ad this will leave a difficult, uphill 2-putt.
Hole 10
447 yards: Par 4
Long, confident drivers, in conditions where the wind is not against have the opportunity to take this hole apart. For most, however, a safe mid/left side of a fairway drive will leave a tricky shot to the green. the further left the tee shot, the narrower the approach. For this reason, a right to left shape is again beneficial for irons in to the green. Players playing over the bunker halfway down this hole will be faced with a narrowing, but makeable drive, after which a short iron or wedge to an open green leaves a great chance to make 3.
Hole 11
593 yards: Par 5
Betfair backers may be awakened by the prospect of backing players starting on 10 as well as 1. Depending on the wind and following the relatively easy 10th hole, this hole offers more birdie and potentially even eagle opportunities. The hole actually favours a left to right drive and right to left approach if going for the green in two. However, a player simply needs to fir the brief of finding the fairway from the tee in what is a relatively forgiving landing area. Golfers looking to go for the green in two will have bunkers between them and the hole 40 yards short and a little further on and to the left of the hole. In addition, a bunker right and just before the green awaits golfers who try to bring the ball right to left who do not quite get enough turn on their golf ball.
In many ways, this could become a tortoise and hare type hole, with great wedge players such as Donald and Stricker avoiding trouble and leaving makeable birdie putts, while longer players potentially find trouble in their approaches. This should prove a really good and potentially pivotal hole through the week. It is easy to visualise a great shot on the green in two being a significant moment on Sunday.
Hole 12
412 yards: Par 4
Anybody who chose a back to lay strategy on Betfair may want to get out now if the aim is short-term profit. This hole will prove tough to birdie, although missing par will frustrate golfers too. The fairway is generous enough for golfers to be confident of finding the fairway although deep sand left and rough and even water if right will punish the errant.
The 2nd shot is the main challenge on the this hole. A downhill approach to a green with elevation at the front makes it difficult to land the ball short and run on to the green. Also, due to the downhill nature of the hole, it will be easy enough fore golfers to go long, which will make par trickier.
Hole 13
497 yards: Par 4
Less than confident drivers may find severe difficulty on this hole. Drivers going long off the tee have a canal to contend with all the way down the right of the hole. Players going left from the tee - too far left - will find themselves in a nasty bunker and much too far away to make the green. The canal is a feature of the hole all the way down the right of the hole. Any semblance of wind on this hole will make this hole a potentially brutal test. In approaching the green, players nervous of the canal on the right bring sand to the left of the hole in to play also. This is a tough hole, unless you hit it straight. Two good, straight blows, will make golfers wonder what all the fuss is about, but that is easier said than done.
Hole 14
238 yards: Par 3
Suddenly the course heads for home along the coast. Coast = potential for greater winds and potentially a huge variation in potential club selections. Players may choose conservative front right approach to this green as this really is the only reasonable place to miss the green. This hole can ruin the scorecard of players who push left off the tee. The green itself is not so challenging and any player finding the putting surface can be confident of a solid two putt.
Hole 15
444 yards: Par 4
The 15th represents the start of a 4 hole implosion from Calcavecchia in the 1991 Ryder Cup which allowed Colin Montgomerie to recover from 4 down, halve the match and almost help rescue the Ryder Cup for Europe. The wind made it a nightmare stretch that day, which made conditions almost impossible. Pete Dye has since made the course apparently more accessible should similar conditions ensue, but that is a relative statement.
In mild conditions, this hole may yield plenty of birdie opportunities as a good drive will set up a shortish iron in to what is a none too difficult to hit green. There is trouble left, long right and to the back of the hole, but players in fair conditions should handle this hole fairly comfortably.
Hole 16
581 yards: Par 5
This hole is likely to play as a genuine 3 shot approach hole, unless players get help with a prevailing wind. The tee shot is easy enough; over a pond and to a generous enough fairway. The second shot leaves a decision for golfers as the green kinks right and narrows before opening up to the left for an approach to the green. Players carrying the sand on the right with their second will be rewarded with a wedge in to an open green. Players who have to play their shot shorter and left will face a tough time getting their third shot close.
Hole 17
223 yards: Par 3
An easy enough par 3 next. Well, maybe not quite so. I mentioned Monty winning 4 straight to halve in 1991. Well, he played his shot in to the water here before his opponent shanked his shot horribly in to the water and lost the hole after him. This is one of the scariest shots in golf and any player holding a slender 1 shot lead on Sunday will be tested fully with this tee shot. If the wind blows, good luck. Wind will dictate whether this is a 3 wood, 8 iron or somewhere in between. Shorter players may even choose to bail left and short. Or at least try to. A player finding the surface to hold their position on 17 will have earned their chance to win on 17.
Hole 18
501 yards: Par 4
18 is another extremely tough proposition. Players can not miss right and this tee shot very much favours a left to right tee shot which be sent out left and away from trouble. However, unless down the right of the fairway, players probably face a right to left approach as their best shot shape in to the green. The second shot is likely uphill, but the green itself is relatively welcoming. Wind may prove this hole's greatest ally and can make for a brutally long test, with constant trouble for those errant off the tee.
In summary, a lot of holes seem to favour a right to left shot, but the first brief here will be to stay in play. At 7,600 yards+, players can not afford to be overly conservative this week. Fans of Tiger should note his caution off the tee at the open recently. Some holes necessitate driver and most will clearly yield better scores more often if attacked. If the wind does blow and if the weather is indifferent (initial forecasts are varied from what I have seen), level par will be a good score. Look for players this week who are confident to put the ball out there from the tee with control.
I made a mistake in the British Open (as did many) in backing players with the expectation of adverse conditions. Whether that pays or not here is yet to be seen, but either way, good tee to green players are essential here.
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
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