Golf tips - John Deere Classic Player form guide

John Deere Classic Outright Selections http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/golf-tips-john-deere-classic-outright.html


John Deere Classic tournament form guide - http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/golf-tips-john-deere-classic-tournament.html

The John Deere takes place this week in its traditional slot immediately prior to the British Open.  In terms of a warm-up for a stern links challenge, this is about as bad as it gets.  Without going in to the details as to why (many of which are obvious), the effect here is that many of the World's very best players avoid this event.  The logistics of potentially contending here deep in to Sunday before having the fly to the UK is also a factor of course.

As a result, there are not many players that you can back here with confidence, knowing that they are truly firing.  Ryan Palmer is the only player who ranks better than 10th place on average in his last 3 events, followed by Noh and Overton, who are both enjoying a good spell of form.  But for a poor final round at the Greenbrier, Noh would have been close to Palmer in averages, so is clearly in very good shape.  Overton will look to a bad round in each of his last 3 events (106th best round on Friday at St Jude, but still finished 13th, 113th after the opening round at AT&T but still finished 22nd and 62nd after day 1 at the Greenbrier, but a 17th place finish) as the reason he has not placed at least once in recent events.

However, we are here to see if the players near the head of the field in terms of form have been too readily dismissed by the layers.  As per usual, the bigger the number in the right hand column, the bigger discrepancy between a players relative form on tour and their position in the betting (Palmer is ranked 1st in form but 4th in the betting, hence a difference of 3 in the right hand column).

Ken Duke.  Form rank : 4th.  Betting rank :22nd (66/1).  My tournament predictor rank : 11th
Duke is having a fairly sound year on tour, but is making a habit of not quite getting over the line.  Few can better his 6 top 10 finishes on tour this year, but a 5th and 4 7th place finishes will no doubt have him thinking what might have been to date.  Duke has started hot so many times this year, lying in the top 20 no fewer than 10 times (including 9/15/9 in the last 3 events).  Again though, 1st round leader backers need beware.  He led the field at the Zurich after day 1, but has only an additional 4th and 5th to show for his efforts.  Still, you would be a long way ahead if you backed him blind in this market to date in 2012.  This is a generalisation, but the pattern of Duke's failure to make the places has been over the weekend; if he doesn't mess up round 3, he will mess up round 4.  This was not so much the case on the Nationwide tour last year, culminating in a strong weekend to win the season ending Tour Championship.  So, we know Duke can get it done.  In this field, 66/1 has its merits.  If tempted to back Duke, I would look first to see whether he has an early tee slot (he tends to go better when this is the case).  The stronger play appears to be 1st round leader (50/1) or back to lay on Betfair, but he could well have won on Sunday.  Not without interest and this is the sort of field where he might get it done.

David Hearn.  Form rank : 6th.  Betting rank 25th (100/1).  My tournament predictor rank : 69th
Hearn is in a solid run of form right now and is threatening to post a first top 10 since the Sony Open at the start of the year and a first top 5 since the Fall Series last year.  However, I do not think this is the event.  Strong wedge play is a feature here, and Hearn's game is not about dialling in when within 100 yards.  Hearn ranks well outside the top 100 for birdie or better percentage, which he will need to improve upon markedly here to contend.  -17 at the JT Children's Open shows he can go low.  Hearn has been 13th, 25th and 12th in his last 3 bentgrass outings, which looks strong, but his putting stats were less than stellar.  Expect Hearn to turn up at a sterner test.  It could be that the Canadian is a factor at his national open in a couple of weeks.

Will Claxton.  Form rank: 7th.  Betting rank: 45th (125/1).  My tournament predictor rank: 61st.
Claxton is similar to Hearn, in that he is a player in decent form who does necessarily fit well this week. First, Claxton has never played here before.  A quick scan through results shows a 9th on debut for Verplank in 2009, 12ths for Puttnam and Michael Thompson on debut last year, and 3rd for Matt McQuillan last year.  Before that, I am going back to one-timer BJ Staten's 5th in 2005 for another instance of a player coming in and really challenging on debut.  Claxton is another for whom birdies and good wedge play are not core credentials.  Claxton has not reached double digits below par this year and I do not see him having the firepower this week to truly threaten.

Kevin Chappell.  Form rank: 10th.  Betting rank: 45th (100/1 now).  My tournament predictor rank: 53rd
Chappell has actually performed fairly well in bentgrass green events in recent weeks, posting 10th and 17th in two of the last 3 events. I like accurate players off the tee more than long players here (none of the top 21 ranked in the top 10 for driving distance last year.  3 of the top 4 were top 6 for accuracy) and i also want players rolling it nicely on the greens.  Chappell ranks a very useful 24th for accuracy and 36th for putts in my recent form ranks.  So, why is he so low in my predictor ranks?  Again, he is often let down by his wedge play and his birdie conversion rates are less than compelling.

If those in decent form and at good odds, it seems Duke has the most obvious chance.

Regards

Dave (OneBet)