As usual, we are going to look at both the event history and the merits of the players near the head of field, to discern whether any value opportunities exist.
First, let's look at where the eventual winner of the US Open has been after 2 rounds in the last 11 years.
The message here is fairly stark. If you want to win the US Open, you have to be contending at halfway to have a realistic chance. Michael Campbell won from 6th place in 2005 and all other winners have been even higher than that at midway. 6 times the halfway leader has gone on to win. As a further note, Lee Janzen won in 1998, the last time Olympic hosted. He was 2 shots back at the halfway stage to continue the theme. Campbell was 2 shots back in 2005 - indeed all 11 previous winners have been within 2 shots at this stage of the event.
I suspect the reason for this is that the US Open courses always play so tough (bar 2011); playing the weekend under par is genuinely difficult. Any players near the head of the field who can grind out a level par weekend will almost invariably beat the field below him.
The top 6 and 2 shot rule above says our winner is either Furyk, Woods, Toms, Thompson, McDowell, Colsaerts or Peterson. 11 years consecutive history tells me that is all I need to know. If true, the very good news is that 2 of those 7 players were in our staking plan before the off. Furyk (45/1) and McDowell (80/1) leapt off the page for me before the off as genuine value prices. I believe they have genuine claims here, despite a certain Mr Woods in T1 with Furyk.
Next, let's see where players finishing the event in the top 5 have been positioned at halfway.
Since 2005, no player has finished top 5 having been below 25th at halfway. That in theory removes the Westwood, Poulter, Kaymer, Manassero, Simpson etc group at +5. Last year, 5 of the 7 players in the place positions (incl ties) were top 5 at halfway. 2008 was a really bizarre result. Midpoint leader Stuart Appleby fell apart and finished 36th, but the real oddity was that all in the top 6 at the end were in the top 5 at halfway. If punting was always that simple, we would have no bookmakers left. Appleby led on -1 at halfway that year by the way, with a certain Mr Woods a shot back. He somehow got to play-off on one leg (he was visibly injured) before prevailing over Mediate. That sort of mental toughness is exactly as per the brief this year. Woods is a very clear danger. In 2007, a certain Jim Furyk came from 19th to finish 2nd, with Woods going from 13th to 2nd also. Furyk won the US Open in 2003, taking his lead at halfway and staying there to the end, winning by 3 shots in the end Westwood was one of the players to charge from 25th to 3rd last year, mainly due to a fine 65 on day 3. We have him win only, so that appears almost gone, but he still has claims for a place. Matt Kuchar, one of our selections and 9th at halfway, was able to move from 24th to 6th in 2010 after a fine final round.
The instances of players coming from deep do exist, but also it has been very clear that being in position and staying solid over the weekend will yield rewards.
If looking for a halfway punt then, pick your winner from the 7 players at -1 or +1. If looking for a place play, a player can come from a few shots further back than that, but it will be difficult to do.
In the usual way, we will now look at the leading contenders, to understand how they have performed when in contention in the last 2 years. The chart features all players from the leaders to T29th with the ranking at the end showing how they have performed on average over the weekend when in the top 10 before round 3 starts.
Kevin Chappell ranks first here, having gone from 8th to 3rd at the Children's Miracle and from 1st to 2nd at the Valero Texas, both in 2011. However, 2 samples is not enough to predict a hero charge from +5. Of more interest is the 2nd ranked David Toms. I have loyally followed Toms in recent weeks because the challenge faced has seemed well suited to his skill set. So, slightly frustrated to see him challenge here and not MC! 3 times in the last 2 years Toms has led at half way His finishing position has been no worse than 3rd. However, in this event, Toms has not been any better than 8th since 2001 and has not shot better than 70 in 9 weekends in that time. Toms deserves respect here though, despite that fact. Jim Furyk performs poorly in this analysis, but his performance is evolving as his overall form improves again. The same can be said of Woods, who has translated a 4th in to 3rd by the end and a 2nd and 1st at halfway in to victories this season. Both players are different to that of last year and can not reasonably be judged in this analysis. KJ Choi ranks 3rd in this analysis driven by some really strong weekends in 2011. He has been in and out this year, however, and his weekend record is abject at the US Open, with no rounds better than 73 in 5 years and 10 rounds. Choi went from 3rd to 30th in 2003 and from 4th to 15th in 2005. He is not my charger from deep this week.
We have Furyk in the outrights who has a strong chance here. I am also fairly optimistic of a solid weekend from Kuchar which could see him place. McDowell will be close I suspect by the end.
I am not going to formally advise a bet because of the positions I already hold with the above players. If I were to advise a bet without the players I have, it would be a W only bet on Furyk and an EW bet on Toms. The echoes with 2008 are strong at this stage and I really feel those in the top 5 now will dominate the top 5 on Sunday. Westwood is the most likely in my view to get involved in the place positions from deep, but 33s is not a good enough price to get onside. If backing Woods, it may pay to wait for in-play opportunities should he, for example find himself +1 after the brutal first 6 holes. Consider an in-play bet on any player in this list who is still on the same score or better after the 6th.
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
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