Golf Tips - Nordea Masters Outright selections

Nordea Masters Outright selections

2pts EW Sergio Garcia at 12/1 (Various) Result EW Profit 4pts
1pt EW Magnus A Carlsson at 55/1 (Various) Loss 2pts
1pt EW Michael Hoey at 125/1 (Various) Loss 2pts
0.5pts EW Scott Hend at 200/1 (BoyleSports, 175/1 SkyBet) Loss 1pt

Total loss: 1pt

The Nordea Masters returns to Bro Hof for the 3rd successive year, having been the scene of arguably the most brutal playing conditions on tour last year in round 4.  In the first three days, Alex Noren was able to forge a stunning 11 shot lead in reaching -20 after 3 days.  However, in extreme winds on day 4, Richard Finch's fantastic 69 was the only sub-70 round.  Norens 15 under par eventually landed the event last year, with Finch's -8 landing 2nd place.  I expect something between the two to be good enough this year, similar to Johnson's -11 winning mark in 2010.

A brief look at the history of the event shows that Swedes have won their home event in 3 of the last 4 years and in each of the last 2 years at Bro Hof.  However, this is not necessarily definitive as the instance of Swedish players high on the leaderboard has actually been fairly sparse in the last 2 years (Lemke 3rd is the only other top 15 from a Swedish player last year).

There has been a lot written about driving importance this week and I subscribe to that, but only to an extent.  A brief glance at the leaderboard in the last two years has shown a genuine mix of long players, accurate players and players who have putted well in the mix.  I actually believe the single most important stat is par 5 proficiency.  There are 5 par 5s and 5 par 3s on this par 72 layout.  Last year, as mentioned previously, Noren was -20 after 3 rounds, -12 of which was on par 5s.  Richard Finch finished -8 and played the par 5s in -8.  2010 winner Johnson played the par 5s in -10 and won on -11.  Put simply, any player who can pay the par 5s well this week will prosper.  On the flip side, there are 8 par 4s, all of which measure well over 400 yards.  The winner this week will probably have played the par 5s in around -10 and been level or better on par 4s.

It is here that I have a conundrum with my headline pick of Sergio Garcia.  Garcia sits 3rd on the PGA tour for par 5 birdie or better precentage (and also a useful 22nd for par 3 average) . However, his par 4 scoring average is outside the top 100.  So, the question for me is whether he can hold up well enough on par 4s to prosper this week.  I believe he can.  In looking at Garcia's most recent events, I noted Garcia sat outside the top 100 for driving accuracy at the players.  However, last time out at the Crowne Plaza, Garcia sacrificed a little in length overall, which yielded a marked improvement in driving accuracy.  I think Garcia can afford to be a little more aggressive here in general and will be able to keep the ball in play off the tee well enough to score well on par 4s.  As you would expect, his GIR stats remain top draw, with 6th, 4th, 17th and 30th in his last 4 events.  Putting is not critical here, so Garcia's sometimes suspect stroke will not be so exposed this week.  Garcia birdies 54% of his par 5s on the US tour.  If he does that this week, he will be -11 on par 5s come the week's end.  I think he has enough in the rest of his game to win the event if that is so.

Although I do not necessarily think it is a given that a Swedish player wins this week, I do expect somebody in the mix.  The ultra-accurate, ultra-reliable Magnus Carlsson is certainly worth a play at 55/1 this week.  Carlsson shot a +5 over 77 on day 1 at the Wales Open, but "only" lost the event by 7 shots to confirm that he is still in good shape with a game that previously had him at the head of the tour's accuracy and scoring average stats.  The doubt I have is that he is yet to break 70 in 6 rounds here, but Carlsson is a different beast so far this year.  It is worth chancing that he gets in the mix and then takes advantage of his consistency to get in the paying positions come Sunday.

To finish, two players who I think are over-priced this week.  First up is the enigma that is Michael Hoey.  At 125/1, in a field that has only 3 proven world class players at the head of the field and with a win this year and two victories last year, I have to give him a chance this week.  This is a bit of a punt I know, as Hoey has nothing better than 60th in 5 events.  However, that is Hoey.  Hoey missed the cut at the relaitvely lowly KLM open last year and then beat a top class field at the Alfred Dunhill in his next event.  His Trophee Hassan win this year came after a poor weekend dropped him out of contention in the Open De Andalucia.  There is almost no rhyme or reason to his game.  However, this course can suit him if he finds a groove.  Hoey was 14th here in 2010 and only 8 shots from the leader.  I am more than happy to take 125/1 that he shows up again this week.

Scott Hend went MC, 62, MC, MC before finishing 4th last year, so the 1, 11, 43, MC, 74 form line this year makes him a shoe-in for a victory!  OK, maybe not - all bar the 74th last week were on the Asain tour.  However, Hend has the right game for this course if on song.  Long, with the ability to dial in with his irons and putt well on this course, Hend really caught my eye again at the Wales open, despite his lowly finish.  The reason is his middle rounds there.  Hend was 2nd best in the field in round 2 and 24th in round 3.  At 200/1, I think he is a massive price to repeat his challenging form of last year and is certainly worth a small investment

Regards

Dave (OneBet)