Outright selections
1.5pts EW Dustin Johnson at 16/1 (various)
1pt EW Jeff OVerton at 66/1 (Coral)
1pt EW Marc Leishman at 70/1 (various)
1pt EW Robert Garrigus at 66/1 (Ladbrokes)
AT&T National Tournament form guide http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/06/golf-tips-at-national-tournament-form.html
AT&T National Player form guide http://onebettips.blogspot.nl/2012/06/golf-tips-at-national-player-form-guide.html
Course considerations
Backers need to be cautious in looking looking too hard at recent form guides for this event. First, the history of the event only dates back to 2007, meaning it is hard to derive any players with irresistible tournament form. In addition to this, we are back at Congressional this week for the first time since 2009. Therefore, our only true barometer of tournament and course affinity can be derived between 2007 and 2009.
Finally, this course is not the same as that used in 2009. After Tiger won here in 2009, the course was prepared for the 2011 U.S. Open that was won by Rory McIlroy, who rewrote 16 records on his way to victory.
Arguably the most significant change ahead of the U.S. Open was the change of all greens from Poa Annua to Bentgrass, which at least in theory made the Open more open in the literal sense of the word. Holes have also been extended and tee positions adjusted. However, the layout has reverted to a par 70 having played as a par 71 last year. The 6th hole is again a par 4 this year, so the basic brief on the course is similar from tee to green to previous AT&T Nationals here.
In winning last year, McIlroy destroyed the field in 2 headline categories in my view. First, he hit a staggering 86% of greens, a full 7% more than anybody else. Secondly, he dominated the par 4s. McIlroy led the field for most birdies with 19, 13 of which were on par 4s. On a course with 12 par 4s, 1 of the par 5s playing over 600 yards and extremely difficult par 3s, that fits the bill here. His 1 birdie on the par 3s came in round 4 and was truly exquisite.....OK, enough reverie and on with finding the winner.
Another feature of the course is the graduated rough, which is relatively lenient on those erring slightly, but brutal to those wild off the tee. Recent US Opens have displayed this trait and long hitters rather than straight hitters have dominated near the head of the leaderboard in most years (this year is an exception). A look at last year's leaderboard shows the likes of McIlroy, Day and Garrigus at the head of the field. All are long and all are much happier when there is a little more room off the tee.
In addition to graduated rough, the fairways are tree-lined here. Whilst being long is a desired attribute, players must display control in their aggression too.
As shown in my tournament form guide, players such as Glover, Choi, Furyk, Mahan and Woods all performed strongly at this tournament/course between 2007 and 2009. However, all bar Woods (did not play) failed to really impress from that group last year.
The only other guide we have is the Booz Allen Classic, played here in 2005. Garcia won that event, with a strong Australian contingent among those following him home.
My photo fit player this week is one whose total driving is strong, but with bias towards being a longer hitter more than a straight one. An ability to hit high controlled approaches also will be rewarded here on hard to hit greens - the soft conditions of 2011 which made holding the green so much easier are gone. Finally, scrambling will be key for those missing greens. Not missing many greens is the headline stat for me this week though. Finally, I want good players of par 4s in particular, with putting a nice to have, particularly if you can hole out regularly when missing the green and chipping up. Expect this week to be more of a US Open test than it was when the actual US Open was held here last year. Congressional has a point to prove.
My selections
Tiger Woods heads the betting here and that is undoubtedly correct. A winner at Memorial for his 2nd tour success of the year, writers were scrabbling to proclaim the Messiah had returned when he sat T1 at halfway in the US Open. However, Woods really fell away, finally finishing 21st. I do not really subscribe to the theory that he is now PGA Tour ready but not yet major ready. I question whether anybody is more ready than Woods in World golf, despite recent problems. houThere is no such thing as a major ready golfer out there, which is why we keep getting different winners.
My doubt about Tiger is actually the way he copes and the way his swing is standing up to scrutiny when conditions are at their toughest for him. Woods looked ill at ease on the tight fairways of Sawgrass and never got anywhere near the leaders. His biggest problem at the US Open last time out was the first 6 holes. Of course, they are arguably the toughest opening 6 holes on World Golf. However, on both days his game imploded and he will be tested again here. I believe Woods is still trying to find ultimate confidence in his game. Woods started round 3 of the Open with a definite strategy to not play driver from the tee. However, after a bad start, out it came again. There is something not right enough to be able to leave narrowing quotes 11/2 and lower alone.
Mahan and Furyk are so very close to making my team, but I can't have either of them at the prices. both have great course form here when the AT&T was held between 2007-2009 and as per my tournament form guide. However, both missed the cut on the softer and theoretically benign course last year. I accept the possibility that come late Sunday, I am left cursing the fact I didn't get these guys onside, but I will still be maintaining that as a value shot, I was right to leave them. Despite Furyk's great form, I just think he will fall short in a similar way to the Players - played well, finished 25th.
Dustin Johnson really showed up at the Fedex St Jude and genuinely surprised me by winning in his 2nd start back from injury. I am struggling with the missed cut at the US Open, but not enough to omit him here. the reason I am not put off enough is that Olympic Club is about as bad as it gets for Johnson. Tight, demanding accuracy very much over distance and hugely punishing for those errant, Johnson was never going to have it his own way. As it was, he only missed the cut by a stroke. Had he made the cut and finished OK, we might have seen him at 12s here. Johnson finished 23rd here last year in the US Open, but only after a pretty dreadful start. That was a pretty impressive first showing at the course. In his win at the St Jude, Johnson was 30th in driving distance (expected) and 33 rd in accuracy (noteworthy), with 4th in greens and 40th in putts per round completing a really consistent week leading to an impressive victory. I also like the fact that in finishing 6th at the Memorial, Johnson was 6th for putts on the Bentgrass greens there. In short, the elements are there for Johnson and he could really go to town on this course, if he gets himself set early.
Jeff Overton is next in my squad. After the galling loss that Brian Davis suffered, I am hesitant about putting another multi-event bridesmaid in to my team here. However, Overton played Aronimink last two years in this event, finishing 3rd both times. Prior to that, he was 9th at Congressional. Although only 13th and 38th in his last two events, Overton had 3 good rounds out of 4 in each and so clearly is close to a contending performance. Overton is putting well and driving well too. The question is whether he can dial in well enough with his irons to contend. At 33rd in scrambling, 34th in bogey avoidance and 54th in par 4 scoring, I think 66/1 is enough for me to find out this week.
I am really struggling with the concept af adding further players here, to be honest. Ryan Palmer headed up my recent form guide, with 3 very strong top 10 finishes in his last 3 events. The bookies have him as an ever narrowing 6th favourite at time of writing, versus 4th in my system ranks. Long off the tee and strong in par 4 performance and bentgrass positive both generally and of late, Palmer makes a lot of sense. My concern is that his driving accuracy stats are borderline acceptable here. Whilst certainly long enough, I am not sure a record of not being in the top 50 for driving accuracy in your last 20 events is good enough. Also, 73 and 91st in greens hit in the last two regulation events fails to inspire. I am going out on a limb here and bucking the massive gamble by anybody and everybody - Ryan Palmer will not win this week. The other indicator that makes me believe that to be the case is that his last starts have yielded a 4th, 9th, 5th and 3rd......................and 85th at the Players. That is the one I most wanted to see some performance at as an indicator that he can cope with the challenge from tee to green here.
So, I am genuinely now struggling to add players that give balance to the selections and represent value. How about somebody who was 25th last time out here in 2009 and 7th the following year at Aronimink. The same player is a very useful 48th in distacne and 43 in accuracy off the tee in my recent form ranks, with 52nd for greens and 42nd for putting also. He won last time out and ranks 20th on tour for bentgrass performance in the last 2 years. Marc Leishman is worth another go here. My system has him 6th here, versus 20th or so in the eyes of the layers. 70/1 is actually a nice price as long as he retains focus after his new found fame. I am going to chance it, especially given that nagging stat I have about the prominence of Australian players in the Booz Allen Classic of 2005.
My last pick is Robert Garrigus. I will flesh out the details later
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
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