Players Championship form guide
Outright selection
1pt EW Francesco Molinari at 66/1 (take the 6 places with Ladbrokes or Bet365)
Already selected 1.5pts EW Sergio Garcia at 50/1 (Now 45/1, still with 6 places available)
Players outright selections - http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/golf-tips-players-championship-outright.html
Players championship course form guide - http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/golf-tips-players-championship-form.html
Last year at The Players, KJ Choi won the event coming in with form figures of 6/8/3 prior to the event. David Toms lost in a play-off, having previously been on a run of 4 straight top 25 finishes. On this course, which favours good scramblers and ball-strikers, players with demonstrable form entering the event are attractive here.
The quality of field that assembles this week dictates that a number of players arrive in pretty good shape. 4 players are looking for back to back victories (Oosthuizen, Mloinari, Fowler and Dufner) and no fewer than 23 players average better than 30th for their last 3 strokeplay events on the PGA or European Tour. Hence, differentiation between the World's best this week is difficult on a form basis.
My outright picks will be sent later today in which I will tell you who I think represents best value in the field. As usual, the table below and subsequent thoughts consider the credentials of players near the head of the field on form, but less well regarded by the layers this week. If you think the top positions a closed shop for the World's elite this week, Goydos (3rd 2011, 2nd 2008), and virtually the whole top 10 in 2010 (Tim Clark, allenby, Glover, Crane, Van Pelt, Slocum, Stroud etc etc) show that lesser players at bigger odds can get in here.
For those unfamiliar with the table below, the form ranks are based on the average finish in the last 3 events. The right hand column shows the form rank versus the betting position. Oosthuizen tops the form ranks, but is 11th in the betting, meaning he is 10 positions different.
Louis Oosthuizen - Bounced back from an agonising Masters play-off defeat to win in Malaysia the very next week. Form figures of 3/2/1 coming in are stunning and now rested, the 45s on offer will appeal to many. Not me though. Put simply, Oosthuizen is much less at home on Bermudagrass greens - his last 3 events have been on bentgrass and papsalum greens. It would take a step up in class on these greens for Oosthuizen to figure this week. In addition, this course usually rewards players who have gained course form and experience. Oosthuizen has played once and missed the cut. A no from me this week.
Ben Curtis is in the best spell of PGA form of his entire career, yet can still be backed at a general 80/1. In 8 attempts here, Curtis has a 22nd to show as his best result. However, his recent prowess has been built on accuracy, with 4 consecutive events in the top 17 for driving accuracy and good GIR stats. However, the GIR stats are regressive: 4, 5, 19 and 54 hints that perhaps Curtis is regressing a little in arguably the key stat this week. Add also that Curtis is a lowly 169th on tour for Par 5 birdie or better and I think he will struggle to score well enough to swallow the inevitable dropped shots when they come. No bet for me, although I understand anybody wanting to side with him.
Francesco Moilnari did us proud last week, landing the Open De Espana and making it 3 consecutive winning weeks for us. The victory was merely an affirmation of Molinari's good form with a 6th and 1st in the last 2 events being preceded by 4 further top 20s in succession. Molinari fits the bill here for ball striking and accuracy off the tee - he was 1st in greens last week and 7th in accuracy. Also, in assessing Molinari's last 5 appearances in Florida, I see another encouraging trend. Molinari has been 14th, 9th, 3rd, MC and 13th, with the best 3 results coming on bermudagrass surfaces. In fact, the 9th finish was here in 2010, which serves further to underline his credentials. There is a lot to like about him this week. The 70s have gone, but the 66s still holds plenty of appeal and he makes my team this week.
Ian Poulter has picked up his season in recent weeks following the considerable distraction of having another child earlier in the year. The highlight was a 3rd in the recent Transtions Championship (also on Florida Bermudagrass) and a fine competitive effort at the Masters, finishing 7th. There is a further positive for Poulter here in 4 top 30 finishes, the best of which was a 2nd place in 2009. Poulter can challenge this week but I would probably want to see him a higher price than 80/1 before I get involved. Poulter did not manage to trouble the leaders in either relatively low key event in China and Korea recently and seems to have decelerated a little since his excellent effort at the Masters. I will keep a watching brief on Poulter for now, who is simmering nicely and may be about to fire soon. Hopefully not this week.
Brian Davis continues to churn out good results on tour, with 9 last time out his 4th top 15 result in 5 events. This is a top quality field of course, which explains at least in part the 125/1 quotes available. However, the price looks better when considering a 5th here in 2009, with a 20th in 2006 and 26th in 2011 also reminding us that he can play the course well. Indeed, Davis found himself -6 at halfway last year to sit well within range of the leaders, only to tread water over the weekend. My reservation about Davis is the apparent fall off in accuracy last week; Davis was only 97th in GIR and putted among the best in the field to place in the top 10. I think it will take a step up for Davis to get involved this week, but dialled in play is still fairly fresh in the memory banks for him. an interesting option.
Simon Dyson - Simon Dyson led by three after 53 holes in Spain last week, before playing the last 19 holes in +6 and slipping down the field. However, Dyson has been utterly dismissed by the layers this week and is a general 250/1. Dyson is in decent form and debuts here. It will take a lot for him to feature, but Dyson has shown up in big events Stateside before. A spreadbet or top 20 option could be worth a second glance, but I would not advise either as being clear value.
Billy Mayfair - 4th at the recent Heritage (Bermuda), with one of the best scores over the weekend, Mayfair is in decent shape and 300/1 with layers. Way back in 2001, Mayfair placed at Sawgrass and finished 32nd last time out here in 2009. Mayfair is straighter than most off the tee and decent around the greens, but not quite so good on them. It would take a lot for him to get in the mix here, but do not be surprised if he makes the cut and has a decent tilt at the top 20.
Ken Duke has made a decent fist of starting events well in recent weeks, but has not managed to hang on to much come Sunday evening. With a 5th and two 7ths, Duke is a making a decent fist of his graduation year back on the tour. Duke's figures are very respectable in recent events and he may go OK this week. In three attempts at Sawgrass, Duke has a best of 37th. If looking to back him, consider a back to lay on Betfair and see if he starts fast. 1st round leader may be an option too if an early tee time and good conditions combine. I personally do not think he has strong enough credentials this week; his getting involved early is possible, but not likely enough for me.
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
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