Midway selectrion
1pt EW Martin Laird 28/1 (Boylesports, 25/1 various)
W Profit 6pts
At the halfway stage, we have an intriguing leaderboard. Pre-tournament favourite Rory McIlroy missed the cut by a mile. Depending upon your perspective, the next in the betting - Donald, Westwood, Mickelson and Woods - are either moving ominously contention or are failing to really trouble the leaders. We will consider the merits of each shortly.
First, let's look at where the winners have been at halfway since 2001
Since the course changes in 2007, we see a 2nd quirk in the last two years. First, it was only in the last 2 years that the average score of the total field was below par (level to par last year and below in 2011). Secondly, as the above chart shows, it is only in the last two years that our winner has been able to come from quite a way down and triumph. Tim Clark was 7 shots shy of Lee Westwood at halfway in 2010 and 3 shots shy of eventual 2nd place man Robert Allenby, but managed to win from 23rd. Last year, Choi came from 11th and 4 shy of midway leader David Toms to beat him in a play-off.
In 7 of the 11 years, you had to be right in the top 5 to go on and place. Only once has the leader at halfway won the event - a certain Phil Mickelson prevailed in 2007. the current top 5 of Z Johnson, Na, Kuchar, English and Wi then seem well placed. However, the leaderboard is very tightly bunched this year with 16 players within 4 shots. Those that made the cut on the number are 8 shots shy, which is only one more than the deficit Tim Clark overhauled 2 years ago. In this respect, I am very frustrated that Francesco Molinari bogeyed 18 - the distant dream has died with him (he has said he is tired since, so probably better to have seen the hopes fade early)
Next let's have a look at the fortunes of those players who have placed in the event and see how they were placed at midway.
As is inevitable, a more scattered approach, but an interesting trend change has emerged since the course changes in 2007. Namely, the instances of players coming from outside the top 40 to place are 0 in the last 4 years. Also, it seems far more likely that players in the top 10 will occupy the places than previously. Only 3 of 12 players (including tied places) have come from outside the top 10 in the last 2 years, although 2 did actually win the event.
Now, let's look at the players T18 or better and see how they have fared over the weekend when placed in the top 20 at halfway. Get your magnifying glasses ready
OK, as you can hopefully just about see, Luke Donald has been in the top 20 15 times at the midway point and has improved from an average of 9th to 5th come the finish. Impressive indeed. Luke threatened to really get in to the mix yesterday, but fell away just after the turn. Still, at 5 shots off, it is is impossible to ignore his credentials entirely. I am surprised he is a big as 20/1. The 5/1 place terms hold some appeal. Gillis ranks 2nd, but we only have 2 samples to look at. Lee Westwood, as you would expect, also ranks well, but has nothing like the headline improvement that Luke Donald has displayed. If, and it is a big if, he can get the putter hot, he has a genuine chance. Mystifyingly though, Westwood is 14/1 to Donald's 20/1. That is simply wrong and Donald is surely the better value play.
A quick word on the other two big names lurking, albeit off the page here at -2. Tiger is out at 18/1 which is simply to short given it is a toss up whether he fires or loses his way right now - his recent charge from 31st at halfway to just be edged by Rory serves warning that he can, but effectively 3.5/1 on a place is way too short. Phil at 33s and also -2 is a more attractive proposition. his record here is pretty abject since his 2007 win, but we know from his stunning run from deep to win the Shell Houston in 2011 from 21st at halfway that he can get it done. Earlier this season at Pebble, Phil roared past the leaders on day 4 to win also. If he goes at all well on day 3, he is worthy of serious consideration. I can just leave him alone at 33s right now however.
It is interesting to see the top 3 in the betting ranking fairly well in this analysis. All three have at least 10 top 20s at halfway and are ranked within the top 12 of the 29 golfers within 5 of the lead. So, I would expect at least one of these guys to stay on well to the end. A little more on those later.
The final table looks at how players go on when they are top 10 at midway.
Luke remains a good guy to side with it seems. Martin Laird also likes it at the business end and, at only 2 shots off and for a man who looked for all the world like the end R2 leader before faltering late, I very much like the 28/1 with Boylesports. Let's take a look at Laird a little more closely. The results below summarise recent top 5 positions at halfway for Laird, with the figure in brackets representing the finishing position : 4(2), 3(2), 4(10), 1(1), 5(11), 4(2). So, 3 improvements, 1 static (can't do better than stay 1st), and two drifts. I like those odds. Laird likes being in the mix. Interestingly, in all 6 of these events, Laird has performed well in round 3, with only the occasional round 4 wobble costing him. I am very happy to add him to my team.
Ben Curtis is interesting. If we ignore the fact that I have omitted his recent win (apologies) in my analysis, he has been finishing well from off the pace in recent times. His recent place at Wells Fargo came from 23rd at halfway. However, I feel that 33s is about right and so will leave him alone.
A final word on the top 3. Matt Kuchar is good at contending well but not winning. 3 times in the last 2 years (back to mid 2010) he has led at halfway, but has only gone on to be 2nd, 3rd and 10th. At 11/2, I can't trust him enough to be involved. Kevin Na led at halfway to win his miaden title in the fall Series last year and performs fairly well generally when in contention. His odds of 12/1 are interesting, especially given that he finished in such a controlled and impressive manner yesterday. Just too tight to get involved I think, but tempting. Zach Johnson at 7/1 is a proven tour winner. He dialled in at the Heritage over the weekend, but that aside, we have little to go on. He is a live threat.
For the OneBet team before the off, Luke Donald remains a threat and I would not discourage anybody not on before the off from going in at 20/1. Sergio and Dufner need one of the hot rounds of the day, which means Sergio has to hole a few and Dufner needs to dial in. I am not so hopeful there. Of all the guys way off the pace, the 150s on Sergio is not terrible - almost 40/1 on him to place from here is not awful as he is one of those who can shoot 8-10 under over the weekend if he gets hot. Given the weakness we have at the head of the field, I am happy add Laird to our team.
Regards
Dave
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