Outright selections
2pts EW Rickie Fowler at 16/1 (Various, but take Bodog's 6 places) Loss 4 pts
1pt EW John Senden at 50/1 (Bet365, Skybet) Loss 2pts
1.5pts EW David Toms at 28/1 (Various) Loss 3pts
1pt Pat Perez to place at 14/1 (Paddy Power, William Hill) Loss 1pt
Total loss : 10 points
Crowne Plaza player form http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/golf-tips-crowne-plaza-player-form.html
Crowne Plaza course form http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/golf-tips-crowne-plaza-course-form.html
Guide
The PGA tour once again heads to Colonial this week for the Crowne Plaza Invitational. David Toms is back this week to defend the title he eventually won narrowly last year. A good field assembles here too; at the head of the betting, we see FedEx cup leader and dual winner Jason Dufner only 4th favourite behind the joint market leaders Zach Johnson, Matt Kuchar and Rickie Fowler.
Colonial rewards accurate players who can get hot with the putter. Bombers typically do not do so well, with the tree lined nature of the course more readily rewarding straighter hitters. Last year, Martin Laird was the only player finishing in the top 15 to rank in the top 10 for driving distance. David Toms won last year by finishing 7th in driving accuracy, 6th in greens hit and 1st in total putts. 6 of the top 9 from last year were in the top 20 for greens hit. However, it was putting that really set the leaders apart from the rest, with the aforementioned Toms (1st in total putts ),Wi (3rd) and Van Pelt (2nd) highlighting that the very best putters this week will prosper. I have heard some reports that perhaps the greens are not so fast this week, which may equalise the field a little if true come Thursday.
However, a look at the recent roll-call of winners demonstrates that experience is arguably the biggest pre-requisite around here. Toms last succeeded the likes of Zach Johnson, Steve Stricker, Phil Mickelson, Tim Herron and Kenny Perry as winners of this event to have previously played the course on numerous occasions. Indeed, one has to go back to Sergio in 2001 to find a player who bucks this trend.
At the time of writing, the biggest gambles this week have come on Zach Johnson, Bo Van Pelt and David Toms, with huge support for Harris English, who, aligned to a fine regular tour season, waltzed through Open qualifying, shooting 60/63 in the process. English has the experience factor against him and I have to overlook him this week, at both the shortened price offered at time of writing (70s) and the opening price (100s). I can only back players who have learned about the course previously and shown at least signs that they can master the course if on song this week.
A final note about the weather. David Toms won with -15 last year, with -21 and -17 the winning score in the two years prior. Toms actually led the field by 7 after round 2; successive 62s left Toms -16, demonstrating that this course can be a birdie fest for those who could keep themselves out of trouble consistently enough. However, the weather looks to be a significant factor this week. Winds are expected to reach 20kph for Thursday through Sunday, with only a slight abatement expected on Sunday. If true, players will not be shooting -15 this year and a grittier approach may be required to prevail .
My selections
Having not published on Monday this week, I write having seen so many pundits tipping up Zach Johnson this week. At no.1 in my course form guide above (link above) and 2nd at the Players last time out, it is clear to see why he is popular. However, in this quality of field, I simply do not trust him enough at the price quoted. Johnson thrives when the remit is accurate play, but I am not convinced he is putting well enough to be trusted at these prices. 29th in total putts when 2nd last time out is OK, but prior to that, Johnson was 87th on his last bentgrass appearance. I also question how much I can trust Zach Johnson to remain consistent for one more week, as he hasn't stayed hot for long in the last couple of seasons. Clearly, he loves the course, but is not for me this week.
Of the favourites, Rickie Fowler gets my vote this week. Fowler has only played here twice, but arrives as the number one player in my form ranks (link above), having been 1st and 2nd in his last two events. In progressive form here with 38th in 2010 and 16th last year, I expect a big performance from Fowler again this week. If the winds do come this week as expected, there are none I favour more than Fowler here. One of the World's finest ball strikers when on song, Fowler has been 15th, 8th and 2nd in his last 3 events for greens hit. Also, his total driving has been amongst the best in the field in recent events. Fowler is a class act who may be starting to get truly comfortable with that notion. If his form continues in to this week, he has an outstanding chance.
David Toms also makes my team this week. Toms shot the 60th best round on Saturday last year and almost threw the tournament away. However, he shot the best round on Thursday and Friday, finishing with the 3rd best round on Sunday to edge the tournament. Toms was sensational for 3 days and finished a full 5 shots clear of 3rd place. Anything like that performance again this week will see Toms at least in the mix for a place. The familiar Toms accuracy from the tee (4th driving accuracy) to green (6th in greens hit) returned at the Players. If putting follows, Toms will go very close.
John Senden is worth a play here. 8th last year, Senden can obviously play the course. At the Players, Senden led the field for greens hit and sat 13th in driving accuracy. Only 121st in putting on the Bermudagrass of Sawgrass, Senden sat 34th the week before on bentgrass. Winds will not overly upset Senden and I really believe he can make a run at the places here.
Finally, I think a 14/1 place only play on Pat Perez is outstanding value. Prior to a 62nd here last year, Perez was 10th, 6th and 4th here. Perez is in fine form of late, with only a less than stellar putting display keeping him from real contention last week. Whilst a bentgrass failure last week causes some concern, I am well aware that a number of top players and putters suffered badly in the difficult conditions last week. 17th and 14th in total putts the 2 weeks before that, I am happy to believe Perez can putt well again here. Aside from putting, Perez's ball striking is very good right now. In the last two events Perez has been 26th and 31st for driving distance, but 21st and 28th for accuracy at the same time. In addition, Perez has also been 28th and 16th in greens hit. In short, Perez has everything required to get in the mix here provided he putts better. I have gone place only as I do not see Perez winning, but he can certainly place here.
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
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