Crowne Plaza outright selections http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/golf-tips-crowne-plaza-invitational.html
Crowne Plaza player form guide http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/golf-tips-crowne-plaza-player-form.html
The PGA tour again heads to Colonial GC in Texas for the Crowne Plaza Invitational. Here we look at the course form of the field that assembles this week, which will be a key consideration in analysing our likely winner.
My course analysis goes back to 2001 and I analyse in the following way:
Zach Johnson tops my form rankings here and with good reason. 2nd last time out at the Players, Johnson boasts a 4th, 1st and 9th in the last 3 years here. 16/1 is tight, but tempting for a man right in form. In recent years, Zach has played in pockets of good form. The season ending Chevron aside, Zach had 4 top 10 results in 2011. they came in a run of 6, 12, 4 ending here and then a run of 3, 16, 6. So, Zach is a great guy to be onside when he advertises form. He has been 2, 69, 2 in the last 3 events, so is an enticing prospect. The counter argument to that is that, for a man without a win since 2010, Zach's 5 top 10s last year came in 23 events. 4/1 the place is statistically unattractive, with the question being whether he can again find his groove here.
Next up, David Toms. 8th in 2001, 2nd in 2002, and 3rd in 2005 with two further top 20s in 2007 and 2010, Toms won in 2011 to erase the disappointment of a play-off loss at the Players. Toms could even afford a poor round 3 after absolutely blitzing the field in the first 2 rounds. Toms was in a fine run of form last year, leading to his victory here. Less impressive so far in 2012, 15th and 10th in the last 2 events serves as proof that Toms is gearing up to defend his title strongly this week. I am not convinced he wins, but the 33/1 on offer is certainly enticing. With 10 appearances since 2001 and nothing worse than 44th, Toms is a spread betters dream this week. Anything approaching a sell price of 40 (likely) is very much worth getting on side.
Stewart Cink is perhaps the first surprising inclusion. However, Cink seems to enjoy his birthday celebrations at this event. Cink is ultra-consistent here with a 57th and 33rd in his last 10 appearances being the only time he has been outside the top 26. With only top 10 - 4th in 2006 - however, he is a tough guy to back for the place positions.
Bo Van Pelt, is in good form, just missing a place position last time out at the Players. His record here is pretty special too. Around the lean years here between 2007 and 2009, Van Pelt was 5th, 17, and 12 2004-2006, 10th in 2010 and 3rd last year. Van Pelt is in much better form this year too. If we ignore his MC at the Heritage, Van Pelt's form reads thus: 8, 8, 8, 9, 17, 7. Brilliant form, but never quite getting the job done. 30/1 is a useful price for Van Pelt to make the tiny improvement versus the field required.
Rory Sabbatini is next up, due in no small part to his win in 2007. 16th last year shows he can still dial in to this course too. Sabbatini arrives with 3 straights MCs. You are a brave man to back him right now and although 150/1 seems huge, Sabbatini's iron play is poor enough right now to be left alone.
Scott Verplank is another in no kind of form at all. Verplank has a 5th and 7th here but simply must be overlooked, even though odds of 250/1 are readily available.
Finally Sergio. Garcia won this event back in 2001 and was 16th last time out after a 6 year absence. However, Garcia looks too short to me at 35/1, especially as he is without a top 5 since the Northern Trust Open in February.
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
- Tournament experience, with a maximum 8 points if a player has played 6 or more times
- Tournament history, with a maximum 10 points if a player has ever won the event, with further increments down to down to 2 points for any top 25.
- Tournament form in 2012, 2011 and 2010, with up to 4 points available for each year.
- Course experience points - As per tournament form, but for the specific course in use. In reality, this is not a factor here as Colonial has been the singular host course for this long-established event.
As we are looking at course form in years gone by, not all in the Crowne Plaza field make the list due to 2012 being their debut year. As this post is sent so early on, I have included the alternates for the event, as withdrawals between now and the event's start are likely.
So, looking purely at course and history form, with a ranking system that aims to differentiate between players who do consistently well and those who don't (either one hit wonders or those consistent performers who do not really challenge), we get the following results:
Zach Johnson tops my form rankings here and with good reason. 2nd last time out at the Players, Johnson boasts a 4th, 1st and 9th in the last 3 years here. 16/1 is tight, but tempting for a man right in form. In recent years, Zach has played in pockets of good form. The season ending Chevron aside, Zach had 4 top 10 results in 2011. they came in a run of 6, 12, 4 ending here and then a run of 3, 16, 6. So, Zach is a great guy to be onside when he advertises form. He has been 2, 69, 2 in the last 3 events, so is an enticing prospect. The counter argument to that is that, for a man without a win since 2010, Zach's 5 top 10s last year came in 23 events. 4/1 the place is statistically unattractive, with the question being whether he can again find his groove here.
Next up, David Toms. 8th in 2001, 2nd in 2002, and 3rd in 2005 with two further top 20s in 2007 and 2010, Toms won in 2011 to erase the disappointment of a play-off loss at the Players. Toms could even afford a poor round 3 after absolutely blitzing the field in the first 2 rounds. Toms was in a fine run of form last year, leading to his victory here. Less impressive so far in 2012, 15th and 10th in the last 2 events serves as proof that Toms is gearing up to defend his title strongly this week. I am not convinced he wins, but the 33/1 on offer is certainly enticing. With 10 appearances since 2001 and nothing worse than 44th, Toms is a spread betters dream this week. Anything approaching a sell price of 40 (likely) is very much worth getting on side.
Stewart Cink is perhaps the first surprising inclusion. However, Cink seems to enjoy his birthday celebrations at this event. Cink is ultra-consistent here with a 57th and 33rd in his last 10 appearances being the only time he has been outside the top 26. With only top 10 - 4th in 2006 - however, he is a tough guy to back for the place positions.
Bo Van Pelt, is in good form, just missing a place position last time out at the Players. His record here is pretty special too. Around the lean years here between 2007 and 2009, Van Pelt was 5th, 17, and 12 2004-2006, 10th in 2010 and 3rd last year. Van Pelt is in much better form this year too. If we ignore his MC at the Heritage, Van Pelt's form reads thus: 8, 8, 8, 9, 17, 7. Brilliant form, but never quite getting the job done. 30/1 is a useful price for Van Pelt to make the tiny improvement versus the field required.
Rory Sabbatini is next up, due in no small part to his win in 2007. 16th last year shows he can still dial in to this course too. Sabbatini arrives with 3 straights MCs. You are a brave man to back him right now and although 150/1 seems huge, Sabbatini's iron play is poor enough right now to be left alone.
Scott Verplank is another in no kind of form at all. Verplank has a 5th and 7th here but simply must be overlooked, even though odds of 250/1 are readily available.
Finally Sergio. Garcia won this event back in 2001 and was 16th last time out after a 6 year absence. However, Garcia looks too short to me at 35/1, especially as he is without a top 5 since the Northern Trust Open in February.
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
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