US Masters Midpoint considerations

So, who wins the Masters?  For keen golf fans and keen golf punters alike, this is the question that will be pondered and debated across the World over the next two days.

Tips
2pts win Rory McIlroy at 10/3 (Various) Loss 2 points
3pts place (top 4) Rory McIlroy at 4/6 (8/13 Paddy Power) Loss 3 points
0.5pts EW Peter Hanson at 80/1 Profit 5 points (place position shared)


Analysing the prospective winner

OneBet followers will be aware that we had Phil Mickelson and Justin Rose before the off, with our 3 triple figure tips off the pace at present (Senden missed the cut, Haas is +2 and Van Pelt +4).  After the Mickelson charge in round 2, my hopes were raised that perhaps we were still in with a chance.  Also, I am sure that, even at 8 shots back, the 40/1 avaialable for Tiger will have attracted some interest, especially after his recent final day charge at the Honda to claim 2nd place and a performance at Bay Hill where we went away from his rivals over the weekend.  So, is there any value in backing Mickelson, Woods or anybody else who is off the pace at half way?

The chart below shows the midway position of the last 11 champions.

Average midway position : 4th (3rd before 2011 anomaly)


The message from the above chart is very clear.  With the exception of last year, players only win the Masters if they are in the top 5 places at halfway.

So, how to interpret this?  First, let's look at how Charl broke the trend in 2011.  Rory McIlroy led at halfway and was 6 shots clear of Schwartzel.  Jason Day was 2nd, 2 shots off the lead.  Schwartzel then played wonderfully well over the weekend, shooting -10 to win by 2 shots on the -14 mark.  It is worth noting that Adam Scott came from 20th to 2nd last year, also shooting -10 over the weekend.  -10 bettered the rest of the field by 4 shots.  So, it can be done, but it would take a special effort indeed.  Similarly, although Phil was 3rd at Midway in 2010, he overturned a 2 shot deficit by shooting -10 over the weekend to eventually win by 3.

Phil is T11 and 3 shots back.  It has been done from a lower midway position, but only once in the last 11 years.  Tiger is T40 and +3.  Not this year for him then.  The clear inference from the above chart is that you do not find your game while you are playing around Augusta.  It is there, or it is not.  Your winner will almost definitely have already demonstrated he is in form by moving in to contention ahead of the weekend.  Tiger Woods will need to go 66-66 to have a chance I fancy and that will almost certainly not happen. 40/1 is among the worst pricing I have ever seen for a golfer.  80/1 would not interest me.

In 9 of the 11 years, the leader at half way failed to win, which is less than positive for backers of Dufner or Couples.  Of those 9 players who caught up over the weekend, the following midway gaps existed (2001 first) : 2 shots (Tiger), 4 shots (Tiger), 3 shots (Phil), 6 shots (Tiger), 4 shots (Phil), 2 shots (Zach), 1 shot (Angel), 2 shots (Phil), 6 shots (Charl).  It is interesting that in 4 of the 9 years, the gap has been at least 4 shots.  The leaderboard is exceptionally bunched this year, so it is harder to overcome such gaps as there are more players above liable to go equally low.

Suddenly I feel a bit better about the Phil bet.  Phil has come from 2, 4 and 3 shots back previously to win each of his green jackets.  Good.  He can dial in versus those around him and deliver.  But, he has to outgun 10 payers ahead of him, instead of the usual 4 or less.

With two of the 9 comeback winners having come from 6 back, it does give small hope to backers of Adam Scott at +1.  However, the duality of a 6 shot gap and the fact that 30 players are ahead of him, makes this a virtual impossibility.  Matsuyama is also +1, but any tilt at the title would be quite exceptional for the amateur.

The analysis above is statistically based, but there are of course other factors.  The first of those is the ever improving weather.  The course is getting firmer and players will not have quite the luxury they did when firing in to greens over the weekend.  On the converse, it could shorten the course somewhat, which brings second shot golfers more in to play.  Is Bubba, 4 shots off the lead, able to go low for two days and get in the mix when Augusta starts to demand more dexterity around the greens?  At a best price 14/1, I am not about to find out.


Analysing the place market

Next, and before looking at the merits of those players near the top specifically, I wanted to see whether there is more hope of players placing if off the pace.  The busy chart below shows the midway position of all players who have finished top 5 in the last 11 years.

Average midway position : 9th

Again, there is little scope for a hero charge if history is a good barometer, which it nearly always is.  Indeed, only 3 times has a player finished top 5 when outside the top 25 heading in to the weekend.  2 of those instances were in 2007, in what became a war of attrition in tough conditions.  Goosen and Sabbatini played some solid golf when required and passed players falling away.  So, if we consider the improved forecast for the weekend, it would suggest that we only have a stunning last day 66 from Olazabal in 2006 (note: this was before the last redesign), which propelled him to 3rd having been 39th at midway, as an example of a charge from deep.  That is compelling enough to suggest that we only consider players inside the top 25 for a place.  T24th is Even par.  Therefore, history tells us to ignore all players +1 and worse as they would have to do something only 3 players have achieved in 11 years of trying.  11 years, 60 players in the top 5 (with ties) and only 3 players going deep over the weekend to place from well off the pace at midway.  Adam Scott, who is +1, falls outside the band.  However, another -10 over the weekend would most likely see him in the places.  I am not backing him.

So, if placing a win only bet, give strong preference to those already high on the leaderboard.  If playing for a place bet, only look at players evens or better, unless you are feeling very brave.

Analysing the weekend performance of the leading players


Ok, so next, let's look at how the leading contenders have performed when in good shape at halfway.  After all, if we want to back a player at this point, we want some confidence they can cope with the pressure of contention.

The first table below shows a players performance in 2011/12 when in the top 20 at halfway.

I am sure that everybody expected it would be Paul Lawrie that averages the biggest improvement over the weekend, right?  Lawrie has been top 20 at halfway 5 times, with an average midway position of 13.6 and an average finishing position of 9.2.  Impressive.  Lawrie should not be lightly dismissed, although I do question how well he will adapt to quickening greens.  Quotes of 50/1 do tempt though on bare stats alone.

This table can mislead.  After all, if you are first at halfway, the best you can do is stay still and anything other than first come Sunday results in a loss.  However, an average improvement is an average improvement.

A glance at Rory's stats make impressive reading.  13 times top 20 at halfway averaging 6th place at that stage, which he then translates in to an average 6th place finish.  In short, if in the mix, he stays in the mix.  This should not surprise of course, as it is rare he has a bad round, let alone a bad tournament.  the layers are right to have trimmed Rory in below the 4/1 mark, because he is extremely likely to place.  Rory can come from off the pace as well.  He was third at halfway in his recent Honda win and came from well off the pace to win the Wells Fargo in 2010.  As long as the demons of last year's final round implosion have gone, he has a huge chance. I would love to see him and Phil out last come round 4.  That would be a special two-ball.

I advised against backing Padraig Harrington at half way in my feature on him last week and this is why.  Harrington is E going in to weekend and within the top 25.  However, he continually decelerates over the weekend. Leave him alone, even at the 125s offered by Stan James.  I was worried about Justin Rose's failure to convert his numerous chances on the first two days.  He typically fades over the weekend and his wins have come from really contending at halfway.  Whilst not out of the question (Rose is generally striking the ball as well as anybody on tour at the moment), anything other than a fast start may see his interests fade.  He has fallen away alarmingly here in the past

A final table, where we focus on how players fare when in the top 10.  Although -2 is 11th, I have included those players as well

Perhaps as expected, Lawrie is not quite so good when right at the thick of things.  Louis Oosthuizen and Peter Hanson are however.  I tipped Oosthuizen to miss the cut, but he has clearly benefitted from the conditions and learned to thrive on the course.  As day 1 was impressive for scoring, so day 2 was impressive for resilience, with Oosthuizen rallying for an awful start to lie a single stroke from the lead.  Of course, it was only last week that Oosthuizen imploded, but his form for all bar the front 9 on day 4 was clear.  18/1 holds some appeal for the 2010 British Open winner.

Peter Hanson has been in very solid form and is available at 80/1.  Still, he has a lot of work to do, but should he be 9 times the price of Mickelson on the -2 mark?  Rory has the most midway top 10s and continually stays.  Again, a lot to like about his chances.

Phil does not go as well as we might possibly expect in this analysis.  However, we know all his wins here have been from off the pace.  His win this year was from 4th at half way.  At the Shell Houston last year, Phil sat 21st at half way before storming through the field.  Not many can do it from where Phil is, but Phil can.

Finally, if you are wondering why Fred Couples is off the list, it is simply because I forgot to put him in.  Apologies.  2 top 10s to look at, with an average drop of 7 places.  With Fred's bad back and advancing years, this perhaps does not surprise.  I understand the 25/1 quote, despite T1 at half way.

So, given the above, I like Phil and am happy to have him strongly onside with the 3pt EW bet before the off..  I also want Rory on side, with the place stake covering if he fails to win.  I am also going to have a small speculative punt on Hanson due to his ability to stay solid when well placed.

Regards

Dave