1pt EW Stephen Gallacher at 50/1 (Paddy Power, Sporting Bet) Loss 2pts
1pt EW Danny Willett at 55/1 (Various) Loss 2pts
1pt EWVictor Dubuisson at 70/1 (Bet365, 66s Various) EW (finished T4), profit 16.5pts
1pt EW Branden Grace at 60/1 (Various) W Profit 75pts
1pt EW Joost Luiten at 40/1 (Various) Loss 2pts
Total profit : 85.5pts
Tournament indicators
The European arrives in China this week for the Volvo China Open and we have quite a challenge in finding the winner.
Binhai Lake Golf Club hosts the event for the first time, so we have no course form with which to potentially reduce the field for betting purposes. However, the course certainly throws up some other questions which we must consider in trying to determine our most likely contenders. At almost 7,700 yards, this course is among the longest in tournament golf. In addition, the course is open, with wide landing areas, suggesting that big hitters can thrive here. The course has as its defence numerous water hazards. However, perhaps more importantly, strong winds are expected to combine with the course's length to make this a stern test for golfers. Finally the bentgrass greens play firm, but slow, which should offer a little more comfort to the less than stellar putters in the field.
I have seen a number of views regarding this course, ranging from simply selecting bombers to choosing good tee to green players or good wind players. In truth, I do not believe anything is ever quite so one-dimensional. I believe that there is a distinct benefit for players here who are not short, but who are also able to dial in with their approach play. The ability to scramble will inevitably be desired here as well, but greens hit is perhaps the single most critical factor here. I do not think the very biggest hitters necessarily have an edge here as their prowess only really comes in to play on the long par 5s. With 3 of the par 3s measuring between 246 and a staggering 287 yards, all players will be struggling to find the putting surface and an extra 20 yards driving length will be negated here. 4 of the par 4s measure below 400 yards and offer up birdie opportunities to all. However, the par 5s all measure over 570 yards and the very longest hitters will have a potential edge here.
My selections are all pretty long off the tee, but all have demonstrable iron prowess that could see them really thrive on this course.
The selections
I have decided to overlook Ian Poulter - and it makes me quite nervous. Poulter has a great record in Asia and is of course in fine form, having played so well at the Masters. In addition, for the man who chased Harrington home at the Open, windy conditions will not concern. I am going to tentatively oppose Poulter for 3 reasons. First, Poulter has vocalised his difficulty in really dialling in to a tournament after a near miss previously. I do have some concerns whether he is ready to go again with complete focus this week having threatened to really get in the shake at one stage at the Masters. It sounds a little flimsy, but Poulter himself recognises this weakness. To overcome it is to change a trend. Also linked to this is the fact that Poulter has had successive top 10s for the first time in over 2 years. I am not going to back with any strength that he makes it 3 in a row. The final reason I have is that this course is extremely long and I do worry about Poulter's lack of length this week especially if the wind makes the course even longer.
Peter Hanson is dismissed due to a poor conversion rate and no compelling reason to get him onside on this new course. Colsaerts is also dismissed for the simple reason that he is too short in the betting at 16/1. Any of the top 3 can get it done this week, but I believe the price for all 3 is too short to support.
Stephen Gallacher pushed Oosthuizen closest last week, driven by a sound approach game. Gallacher is long enough off the tee and will not be phased either should the conditions worsen. 50/1 is a great quote for him, especially given the question marks surrounding many ahead of him in the betting
I really like the look of Danny Willett at this track. Willett finished 3rd last week, ranking 8th for driving distance and 1st in greens hit. Willett is long off the tee and his 1st in GIR really caught my eye (he is 30th overall on tour). If Willett is dialled in here, he can really make a strong bid for the title this week.
At 11 in driving distance and 7th in greens hit, unheralded Frenchman Victor Dubuisson is worth a second glance here. Dubuission only ranked 70th is driving distance last week, suggesting he played strategically off the tee on a number of occasions. However, Dubuisson was 2nd only to Willett in greens hit. In fine ball striking form this year, take the 70s on offer.
Branden Grace is a bit of a gut feel pick. Grace was going off at 20s a few weeks ago, since which time his stock has fallen. However, Grace has a fine tee to green game and if he finds confidence early in round 1, the European Tour's first dual winner in 2012 could again find himself in the mix. At 60/1, I am very willing to find out.
Finally, I return to my old friend Joost Luiten, who has made my final selection a few times. Luiten is all about ball striking, which is often let down by a less than brilliant putting stroke. However, on these slow surfaces, I am confident that Luiten can perform well and really contend this week - 40/1 offers real value for me.
Regards
Dave
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