Tips
1.5pts EW John Senden at 40/1 (Betfred, 35/1 Bet365, Coral) Loss 3pts
1.5pts EW John Senden at 40/1 (Betfred, 35/1 Bet365, Coral) Loss 3pts
1pt EW Bo Van Pelt at 40/1 (Various) Loss 2pts
2pts EW Luke Donald at 11/1 (Various) W Profit 27.5pts
0.5pts EW Zach Johnson at 50/1 (Bet365, 45/1 various) Loss 1pt
Total profit : 21.5pts
Copperhead is the host venue for this week's Transitions Championship. A long par 71 course, with a fairly unusual 5 par 3s, Copperhead demands players who can score well in expected mild conditions, but who can also plot their way intelligently around the course to maintain the momentum in their round.
I want players who are accurate this week and in particular who are hot with their putter on small, tough greens.
John Senden finished a creditable 6th last week in a World Class field at Doral. Indeed, Justin Rose won the event on -16 and Senden was -16 himself in rounds 2 to 4, confirming that he is playing some great golf right now. As I mentioned in my post on Tuesday related to player form, Senden also has good past form here and should find himself well placed come Sunday. My doubt is Senden's ability to get the job done. Undoubtedly, he has the class and the form to contend this week.
Bo Van Pelt is a difficult man to select or leave off right now. I should explain that. Van Pelt has finished 8, 8, 8 in the last 3 stroke events he has played, continuing the momentum gained by a win in the CIMB Asia Pacific Classic towards the end of 2011. I found it easy to leave Van Pelt out recently, as, on tough tracks, Van Pelt's key ball striking stats were not compelling enough to garner belief that he offered value. This week I feel differently. Van Pelt was 9th in driving accuracy and a much improved 17th in GIR last week. Van Pelt's putter has been working well enough this season and with a much improved tee to green game last week, Van Pelt can have a real run in this event.
Luke Donald needs no write up, especially in Florida. The only question is this: Can Luke Donald use the hinted at improvement in his game last week as a springboard to success this? I really believe he can. Donald is starting to play his way in to the season now and there is no reason to think that another strong, consistent run of form is not just around the corner. Donald finished 7th in GIR last week, a real sign that he is starting to again find his game. I want 16s but I will take 11s this week. I backed Toms as my triple the price of Donald alternative at Doral. I actually like Toms' credentials again here in looking coldly at stats and his price, but can't back him after the withdrawal last week. As Toms' star has faded in my mind, Donald's credentials have improved. Donald has a very strong chance this week.
Finally, given the mild forecasts this week, I am happy to add Zach Johnson to my staking plan . Typically happier when courses play a little easier, Johnson will take encouragement from a forecast that suggests he can thrive this week. This tournament has been won with as low as -4 (Sean O'Hair) in the last few years, but this week, expect at least 10 shots better if mild forecasts remain. Zach Johnson is a very sound player tee to green and is amongst the better players on tour for bogey avoidance. Johnson actually ranks inside the top players on tour for recent Driving Accuracy and GIR in recent events (according to my ranks). Add also a very strong 7th for greens last week and a tendency to score better than most on par 3s and Johnson could go very well here.
Total profit : 21.5pts
Copperhead is the host venue for this week's Transitions Championship. A long par 71 course, with a fairly unusual 5 par 3s, Copperhead demands players who can score well in expected mild conditions, but who can also plot their way intelligently around the course to maintain the momentum in their round.
I want players who are accurate this week and in particular who are hot with their putter on small, tough greens.
John Senden finished a creditable 6th last week in a World Class field at Doral. Indeed, Justin Rose won the event on -16 and Senden was -16 himself in rounds 2 to 4, confirming that he is playing some great golf right now. As I mentioned in my post on Tuesday related to player form, Senden also has good past form here and should find himself well placed come Sunday. My doubt is Senden's ability to get the job done. Undoubtedly, he has the class and the form to contend this week.
Bo Van Pelt is a difficult man to select or leave off right now. I should explain that. Van Pelt has finished 8, 8, 8 in the last 3 stroke events he has played, continuing the momentum gained by a win in the CIMB Asia Pacific Classic towards the end of 2011. I found it easy to leave Van Pelt out recently, as, on tough tracks, Van Pelt's key ball striking stats were not compelling enough to garner belief that he offered value. This week I feel differently. Van Pelt was 9th in driving accuracy and a much improved 17th in GIR last week. Van Pelt's putter has been working well enough this season and with a much improved tee to green game last week, Van Pelt can have a real run in this event.
Luke Donald needs no write up, especially in Florida. The only question is this: Can Luke Donald use the hinted at improvement in his game last week as a springboard to success this? I really believe he can. Donald is starting to play his way in to the season now and there is no reason to think that another strong, consistent run of form is not just around the corner. Donald finished 7th in GIR last week, a real sign that he is starting to again find his game. I want 16s but I will take 11s this week. I backed Toms as my triple the price of Donald alternative at Doral. I actually like Toms' credentials again here in looking coldly at stats and his price, but can't back him after the withdrawal last week. As Toms' star has faded in my mind, Donald's credentials have improved. Donald has a very strong chance this week.
Finally, given the mild forecasts this week, I am happy to add Zach Johnson to my staking plan . Typically happier when courses play a little easier, Johnson will take encouragement from a forecast that suggests he can thrive this week. This tournament has been won with as low as -4 (Sean O'Hair) in the last few years, but this week, expect at least 10 shots better if mild forecasts remain. Zach Johnson is a very sound player tee to green and is amongst the better players on tour for bogey avoidance. Johnson actually ranks inside the top players on tour for recent Driving Accuracy and GIR in recent events (according to my ranks). Add also a very strong 7th for greens last week and a tendency to score better than most on par 3s and Johnson could go very well here.
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