WGC Accenture Matchplay Tips

1pt EW Luke Donald at 18/1 (Totesport, Betfred)
1pt EW Sergio Garcia at 20/1 (Totesport, Betfred)
1pt EW Ben Crane at 66/1 (general)
1pt EW Webb Simpson at 30/1 (general)

All bets lost for 8pts lost over all

I am going to keep this relatively brief this week - on course indicators at least. The reason for this is that we are in Matchplay format - the remit is to find a player who can play tough for 6 days, demonstrating the right mix of flair and grit to get over the line against whichever opponent they face.
I could go over each match, analyse the likelihood of player A beating player B and then model how I think the whole tournament will pan out, but that is to an extent an exercise in futility. That there will be shocks is inevitable. That there are a number of marginal matches is also without question. I could also look at bets such as Watney to beat Clarke and decide to jeopardise my mortgage on the bet, but Clarke is not quite the roll-over he definitely would have been in his post-open winning haze at the end of last year. So, in the first round at least, I am going to keep my powder dry with respect to match bets.
So,how to dissect this event and give some meaningful value to the bets. Well, let's simplify things. The bookies offer 4 places here. So, let's pick a player from each quarter, knowing that we have a chance to have multiple representation at the semi-final stage. It makes no sense to me to back 2 players in the same bracket; I do not want my best case to be that I take one of my players out before they reach the money stage. By picking a player from each bracket, I have 4 chances to win a bracket, each of which assure an overall profit if they so little as place. Easy huh?
So, after defining my strategy for selections, I have to pick the type of player in each bracket who can reach the semi-final. My main brief is to find match players.......it sounds simple, but this is easily overlooked when looking at the array of talent on show. More specifically, I want players who consistently make those difficult up and downs and hole out for crucial hole wins and halfs. Recent match play winners such as Donald, Ogilvy and Poulter and strong players in Ryder cup and Presidents cup renewals display these attributes readily. I want also to have either form players or players who have proven Matchplay credentials on side. I don't see the point in risking that George Coetzee, Nicholas Colsaerts or the many other talented players on show can turn up here, win 6 matches against the world's best and walk away with the title.
So, let's look at the brackets. Luke Donald is a must pick for me. He was quite sensational last year in blowing away all comers. Like last year, he is quite light of schedule in the build up to the event and his indifferent showing lat week is better than the horror show 2nd round and MC of last year ahead of the event. As mentioned, it is tough to call how the matches pan out, but Donald can beat Els with plenty to spare; Els will not punish his opponent readily enough given his current putting woes. After that, Dufner/Hanson deserve respect but should not cause undue worry. The next round looks tough, with Choi, Snedeker, Goosen or Stanley all posing a difficult challenge. But, the fact that is a strong quartet means that staying away for them, at least at this stage, is a must. The last test could see Dustin Johnson in the quarter finals, but I am actually more concerned about the round before. Luke at greater than 4/1 for the place looks very strong here.
In the Player bracket I have gone for Garcia. This is such a tough bracket, with the likes of McIlroy, Poulter, Ogilvy, Day, Schwartzel and Keegan Bradley all challenging, not to mention a certain titanic clash with Jimenez in the first match for Sergio. But, I like best that one of the most revered Ryder cuppers of the current era has really found his zeal for the game again. Garcia is a little frail sometimes at the business end of big events, but not in Match play. Garcia can and probably will beat anybody if on his game on a given day.
The Jones bracket is also extremely tough and filled with potential winners. I think a fit Stricker is my clear favourite here, but I have enough questions about him over 6 days to omit him from my staking plan. Similarly, Kaymer is hinting at finding his best game, but I would not have supreme confidence in any given match up. So, I am going with a live outsider capable of headline wins such as that here last year, is in form and can make a string of putts when needed to close out an opponent. Step forward Ben Crane, who I believe can really give us a run........if he can get running by edging out Bubba in the opener. The bet could die in round 1, but at 66/1 outright, this offers great value for me.
Finally, the Snead bracket. Big questions here over the big names for me. Westwood has been trying for a decade to get beyond round 2 here and in Colsaerts, may find an opponent who extends that miserable record for him. Woods missed enough short putts on Sunday at Pebble beach to question whether his short odds are really value. Watney has decent credentials but has been very inconsistent of late. I prefer to look to the bottom half of the bracket, which sees Webb Simpson offered the kindest first two matches of all of the leading players. Manassero, followed by Quiros/Laird is about as good as it is going to get here. Simpson, after a stellar 2012 and strong Presidents Cup, has a serious chance of winning those games. A possible match up with Haas awaits, followed by those mentioned earlier in the quarter finals. However, at 30/1, I think Webb is a strong value shout to win 4 matches and make the EW places.
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