The Selections
Outright
1pt EW Spencer Levin at 66/1 (Various) Loss 2pts
1pt Ew Robert Allenby at 45/1 (Various) Loss 2pts
1pt EW Mark Wilson at 45/1 (Boyle, BetVictor, Bet365) Loss 2pts
1pt EW YE Yang at 45/1 (Sporting Bet, Stan James) Loss 2pts
72 Hole Mathcbet
1pt Keegan Bradley to beat Lee Westwood at 5/4 (Coral) Loss 1pt
2pts Justin Rose to beat Ian Poulter at 8/13 (Sporting Bet) W Profit 1.23pts
Spread betting tip
Sell Chris Kirk's finishing position at 50 at 0.2 points per point (Spreadex) Loss 1.8pts
Total loss : 9.57pts
The course
The PGA national Champion Course is about as hard as it gets on the regular tour, ranking the hardest course outside of majors in the last 2 years.
There is a high premium on siding with players this week who can play with intelligence and patience. Bogey avoidance and GIR will be key this week, as players try to plot their way to a score.
Last year, Rory Sabbattini missed the green a fairly incredible 25 times, but still won the tournament. The reason is that Sabbattini's scrambling was impeccable, with 21 of those 25 missed greens resulting in an up and down for par. So, as hitting greens is key, so too is an ability to scramble when the inevitable missed greens come along. With over 100 bunkers on the course, good bunker players have a chance to gain on the field here also.
All rounders are desired here, but the emphasis is lessened on driving this week. Rather, it is about having near complete iron control and a great short game. As far as putting is concerned, players will be under pressure to hole out well and consistently.
State form is also a desired attribute, but is a distant 2nd to a demonstrated ability on tough tracks, with of course previous here beneficial. Finally, prowess on Bermuda putting tracks is a useful guide here.
Much is said of the Bear Trap and rightly so. It is a brutal stretch in which the remit is survival, but it does conversely offer a great way to be in-play in the first two rounds, which I will describe next.
Betfair in-play consideration
I mentioned the Bear Trap above. However, there is clear value available for survivors of this stretch pre-cut. After the final Bear Trap hole (17th), holes 18 looped through to hole 5 have the following difficulty ranking : 15, 16, 14, 18, 17, 12. So, the players have 6 holes in which they are playing 6 of the 7 easiest holes on the entire course. So how to take advantage of this fact?
I am looking for the following player type:
A player starting on hole 10
A player with proven ability to find greens and make birdies
A player no worse than +1 thru the 17th (his 8th hole)
A player preferably out in the morning
Of course, it is impossible to know what a player's score might be thru 17. However, we can do a little work on the rest of the brief above and consider the players to back in the outright market if they are going OK. So, to be clear, my strategy here is to wait until a player walks off the 17th (his 8th) and then back him for the outright tournament if he is still posting a decent score. The hope then is that over the next 6 holes that player is able to pick up 2 or 3 shots, which will see his odds come in significantly. Then, it is up to you. My strategy would be to back a player at say 50s on Betfair after hole 17, then, if he does well up to hole 5, lay out and retrieve at least your stake. So, effectively I am saying you are setting up a decent player to give you some free money if he plays 18 to 5 well. Given they have played through the bear trap well, the player should be in a decent place mentally and is either striking the ball well or scrambling well. This is a sensible play.
In fact, you may even want to consider a player at say +3, if they have played well apart from a triple on 15 or something. You may find that he is at triple figure odds, plays holes 18-5 in -3 and is suddenly back in the tournament. Aaron Baddeley was readily avaialable at 200/1 for the Northern Trust Open after going +3 through 3 holes. The Betfair market likes to over-react, at least in the short term. If I see somebody such as Mark Wilson at +3 through 17 holes, I will be backing up my outright bet above with a further in-play bet if I can 100s or better.
I would suggest a 1st round leader bet, but liquidity in this market is usually poor on Betfair, especially during the morning. Of those starting on 10 in the morning, Yang, Sabbattini, Wilson, Steele, Bradley and a few others such as Villegas deserve consideration in this respect. It is likely that their odds will be inflated at that time and could look a whole lot better 6 holes later.
If you are unsure of any of the above and keen to try this method - one of the best chances at free money you will get in a golf tournament, let me know. We will post a Betfair guide similar to the spread betting post above in the near future. Contact me at @onebettips if you want any guidance. I will try and post some advice in play also........after I have got my own bets on
Outright Selection logic
I like Levin this week. He consistently shows up on tough tracks, improved to 14th here last year and is in the middle of a fine run of form that almost brought a first victory. It is notable that Ladbrokes are now hiding away with a 50/1 quote on Levin. They opened at 80s, with 6 place terms and must (and should) have taken a lot of money at those odds. 16th in my recent Florida ranks, 19th in my recent BermudaGrass rankings and improving, I like his chances here.
Robert Allenby has a great record here down the years with a string of place finishes. It has been an age since Allenby won on tour, but he is worth a play here, despite the short odds. Allenby's mental lapse last week cost him that win, but hopefully that serves to add steel and determination this week to a game that was demonstrably ticking nicely last week. A fine ball striker capable of control better than most when the going is tough, he could have a big chance come Sunday.
Mark Wilson is another in fine form and America's last winner at this event. Twice a winner in the early part of 2011 and with a W already this season, Wilson's ability to start the season hot has again been affirmed. I do not add or remove any player based upon the Match Play last week, but I can not fail to be impressed by a run to 3rd place last week, with only a pretty tight match with Mahan until the closing holes resulting in a loss over 6 matches.
YE Yang has a 1st and 2nd here, has started to find his game again and is a real go to player, when it comes to playing tough tracks well. If Yang starts well, I expect he will stay around and challenge through the week.
In the Match Bets, I simply have to take Bradley to beat Westwood at a pretty massive 5/4. Although Westwood has good form here and is generally playing well, he has in Bradley one of the finest players around right now to beat. This is purely a price play. I have Westwood only a marginal favourite, as I am increasingly concerned that his short game prowess is waning, which may stop him winning such events.
In the other match, I do not see Poulter getting the better of Rose. Poulter was badly out of sorts last week in a format which has been arguably more career defining for him than his strokeplay results. In opposition, Justin Rose finished inside the top 20 at the Northenr Trust Open, which gives a good pointer for this week that his ball-striking will see him challenge - a matchplay early exit is insignificant for Rose in my view. I was close to selecting Rose this week outright, but do feel that he should have plenty of game to get past Poulter this week.
Finally, I have advised a play on Chris Kirk's finishing position in the sell market on Spreadex. Put Simply, I do not consider that a line of 50 is anywhere near the real likely finishing position for Kirk here. Kirk is a lively outsider for me this week and if his game is right, he may well finish near the top of the leaderboard. With a line of 50, we lose a maximum of 4 points if he misses the cut - I am hoping of course to see Kirk place top 20, which will give a minimum 6 points profit this week. For further spread betting information, please take a look through my spread betting guide here http://onebettips.blogspot.com/p/spread-betting-guide.html
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
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