Tourney bets
Volvo Golf Champions
0.5pts EW Garth Mulroy 40/1 (Various)
1.5pt EW Louis Oosthuizen 11/2 (BetVictor, Bodog)
0.25pts EW Darren Clarke 80/1 (various)
0.25pts EW Michael Hoey 80/1 (various)
0.25pts EW Thomas Bjorn at 40/1 (Ladbrokes, Hills)
2pts Thomas Bjorn to beat Matteo Manassero in a 72 hole match bet at 10/11 (BlueSq, 888 Sport)
Euro tour retrospective - Joburg Open tips
Before I start on this tournament, a quick word about last week's Joburg open. We lost quite heavily last week, but beneath the disappointment, I take genuine encouragement from the fact that all 4 picks for the tournament had a real shot at it going in to the final day. The biggest disappointment of course was Richard Finch. At 250/1, Finch led outright late in Rd3 and was within a single shot with only 13 holes of round 4 left. It seemed fairly apparent that Branden Grace was only ever going to fall over the line if he were to win and so I had genuine optimism that we were in with a shout. The implosion that followed to leave us not even close to a place was extremely disappointing. Willett showed in rounds 2 and 3 that he should have challenged, but he played the "easy" course poorly and did nothing in the final round. Kruger fell a shot short, and Van Zyl only managed a shared place after a poor start to the round.
Where I criticise myself is the matchbet on Schwartzel. I got Goosen right - he finished only 16th. However, even though Schwartzel's failure to make the cut shocked pretty much everybody, I over-stretched with the matchbet. My doubts in him pre-tournament should have made it a no bet.
Volvo Golf Champions
I had a trade off this week. Either wait for some more data to become apparent regarding the course and conditions, or post a little earlier to ensure value prevailed. Given what I have found out myself regarding the course, I chose the latter. The reason for this is because I am convinced that most of my selections are over-priced, and by some way.
First let's look at the course. The main guide I have for the course comes from three different tournaments. The President's Cup was played there in 2003, as was the South African Open 2005 and the Coca Cola Championship (Sunshine Tour event) was played there from 2008-2010. OK, so what have I learned? First of all, the course is around 6900 yards and a par 72, with four par 5s (all reachable in 2) and four par 3s. On the surface, sounds easy enough. However, this is a coastal links course and is subject to potential winds and inclement weather. Forecasts so far suggest this for Thursday "A mix of cloud and sun. Chance of a thunderstorm. Windy at times", and this for Friday "A mix of cloud and sun with a slight chance of showers or thundershowers. Windy at times". Showers are forecast on Saturday and wind on Sunday. So, this is links golf, with challenging rather than benign links conditions. Of the course ahead of the President's cup, a lot of talk was made of the bumps and hollows on the fairways and the challenge of keeping the ball on the short stuff. Anybody thinking of last year's British Open yet?
So to my picks. Ernie Els won 4 out of 5 points at the 2003 President's Cup (only losing to Woods in the singles) and in the 2005 South African Open was just edged out by Goosen, another here with claims. However, I must overlook Goosen in a class of field that has found him wanting in recent seasons. Also, despite Els' still stellar approach game, I find it difficult to trust his frankly woeful putting at this level. Indeed, from looking coldly at stats, Goosen putted excellently in 2005 to win, whereas Els lagged someway behind. I think there is little doubt now that Els is even less comfortable with the short stick than he was in '05 and so he is overlooked.
Garth Mulroy won the Coca Cola Championship by 7 shots in 2008, winning with -19. Whilst the winning score indicates fairer conditions and the class of field was not as it is here, the 40/1 terms offered seem very generous. The missed cut last week concerns slightly, but not enough to put me off at that price. Mulroy is a much more rounded player now than then, had a very strong year on the Nationwide Tour in the states and won just before Christmas in South Africa. With a limited field and a fair rather than foul wind, he can compete strongly here.
I have already mentioned the British Open and both Bjorn and Clarke are considered with that strongly in mind. Darren Clark has been in shocking form, but there have been some signs via his twitter feed that he is starting to knuckle down to the task a little better after his extended celebrations of last year. Put simply, Clarke can not be discounted when the conditions stiffen. He actually won the Iberdola Open earlier in 2011, a tournament in which he was in contention after day 3 and then the wind blew. Clarke held his game together better than his rivals when it did and won the event. In the British Open, Clarke's ball-striking and control was a feature as he plotted his way to a relatively comfortable victory. I am happy to challenge the fact that he has been dismissed in to the bottom third of players by the bookies, despite a woeful form line post the Open.
Thomas Bjorn won 3 times on tour last year, which is in itself a reason to challenge the 40/1 offered here. I was on Bjorn when he was a 200/1 shot for the British Open and heartily cheered him to a 4th place finish last year. Similar to Clarke, Bjorn has the know-how and experience to plot his way around a course when the requirement is solidity rather than shooting the lights out. He can do that as well by the way - Bjorn's last 9 holes in his closing round 62 in the Omega European Masters was sensational. I backed Bjorn there as well and am hopeful he can do it for me again here. I always like to have players onside who I know I can trust at the business end of a tournament. If Bjorn is close on Sunday, we have a great chance.
Michael Hoey is very much under-rated on tour, but actually won twice last year. I always thought of Hoey as somebody to consider when the tour got to Portugal (win number 1 last year fitted the brief and he has several good results there), but it is his win at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship that catches my eye most here. Firstly, there are few in the field who got their W last year with the class of field Hoey had behind him. Right behind him were McIlroy and McDowell, with a number of top class names also in a crowded top 10. So, he can win when he needs to hold his game together. Also of course, the word "Links" in the title, gives us another reason for optimism. Conditions were benign indeed during that tournament, but Hoey can play inventively enough to be a factor if he plays well. At 80/1, I am more than happy to find out.
Finally, Oosthuizen. I said a lot about his ability to play wind in my Africa Open preview when tipping him W only and he duly won. I want him covered here for similar reasons. I also like the fact that I have some course form for him. In 2009 and after a poor first round, Oosthuizen rallied to finish 2nd in the Coca Cola Championship. So, he can play this course well enough. I can therefore endorse his ability to play the course and the elements. Crucially also and more than any other in this field, I can back him heavily on recent form. He has a 6 tournament sequence now that reads 4-7-3-6-8-1. I can not possibly leave him out this week. The EW bet is there due to the live threats that exist throughout this field.
The matchbet put up follows a similar theme to above. Manassero is opposed strongly due to his lack of distance off the tee, which should see him struggle here. A MC at the British Open was no surprise and I do not foresee a strong challenge from him here. I considered the Mulroy/Otto matchbet, but found a win on the sunshine tour for Otto here late in 2011. No bet
The last sentence of my Joburg Open preview was that Grace was left out for reasons of price. I saw his chances last week, but he was quite short. This week, he is at 25s and won here in 2010. I am concerned at the omission (and re a few others), but omit him I will.
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