Joburg Open
5pts Schwartzel to beat Goosen 72 hole matchbet at 8/13 (VC, Bet365, Skybet, Boylesports) Loss 5pts
2pts Danny Willett to beat Robert Rock at 5/6 (VC, StanJames) Loss 2pts
0.5pts EW JBE Kruger at 50/1 (Sporting bet) Loss 1pt
0.5pts EW Jaco Van Zyl at 16/1 (Various) Profit 0.5pts
0.75pts EW Danny Willett at 25/1 (Various) Loss 1.5pts
0.2pts EW Richard Finch at 250/1 (SportingBet) Loss 0.4pts
Overall loss 9.4pts
So, after finding a win, a place and just missing the 150/1 1st round leader shot last week, you would think I would be seeing options readily this week and brimming with confidence. If only. I am struggling with this event.
The main reason is Schwartzel. That he is the class of the field is beyond question. That he has the best course form is also beyond reproach. So, why am I hesitant? I was on Mulroy last year (150/1 back then) and watched aghast as Schwartzel made a string of stunning saves to keep his nose in front before pulling away in the closing holes. Schwartzel's round was a remarkable mix of genuinely atrocious driving and stunning recovery shots. So, can I trust him at 7/2 in a field of 200+?
The first point is that the field of 200+ can be whittled to <50 when you are looking for a winner and some of those that remain require a big leap of faith to be included. The other point is that Schwartzel forewarned us that his game was not in great shape ahead of last year's event. This year, all the sounds coming from his camp are positive, with talk of challenging for World No.1 being entertained having broken the top 10 towards the end of the season.
I prefer to get Schwartzel onside in a different way that I believe will give us a genuinely great chance of a return. That is the reason for the heavy matchbet against Goosen. Goosen finished outside the top 20 when playing here in 2009 and his record in events with split courses does not inspire. He played well last week, but lacked the edge to really get up and challenge on the final day. Goosen is not what he once was, at least right now and has not has back to back top 10s since September 2010. I believe it would take a really poor effort from Schwartzel for this not to land and I just do not see that happening. The bet is set up to win just over 3 points, which is the same as a single point bet at win only prices for the whole tournament. I am happy with that alternative play.
So, now to the rest of the field. Always in multi-course events, the typical attributes for a likely winner are somewhat blurred. However, we must focus our attentions on the East Course, where 3 of the 4 rounds are played, including both weekend rounds. First however to the West Course. This is a relatively easy course, which Schwartzel blitzed in 61 shots last year to set up his victory. A score close to par on this course is likely to scupper tournament chances for even the best in the field. The East course in contrast is a mammoth 7500+ yard par 71, which is also relatively tight and tree-lined off the tee. So, total driving is a desired attribute (not Charl's greatest strength), as is GIR. Scrambling is also potentially important in keeping bogeys off the card.
More than any other time, using recent tournaments to predict a winner is more difficult at the start of the year due to the extended break from tournament play. Therefore, it is wise to look at players with a good fit for the course, who may have other factors in their favour also. Step forward Danny Willett. From my analysis, Willett is my number 2 ranked player in this field on total driving and GIR stats (behind Schwartzel). For extra positives, Willett is a strong player of tree-lined courses and of course showed up very strongly last week, finishing 7th. I think that in this class of field and on this course, 25/1 represents definite value for this player.
JBE Kruger was well fancied last week, had a horror-show back 9 on Day 1 and missed the cut. So, why back him here? Well, the other 27 holes were actually not so bad. Kruger played those holes in -9 and only missed the cut by a shot. So, the suggestion is that there was not a great deal wrong with his game. In addition, Kruger's form is strong and with solid driving distance and driving accuracy stats allied to good GIR stats, he can go close if he fires. SportingBet dismiss him at 50/1, which piques my interest.
Jaco Van Zyl for me has stronger claims than Aiken and Goosen ahead of him in the betting. Despite not being the longest of drivers, he is one of the straightest, which is arguably the more important of the two attributes here. His irons are hot right now and so any lack of distance off the tee can be overcome. My concerns are that he is not the best around the green; finding the short stuff will be tougher on such a long course. However, I am happy to side with him here, especially with 4/1 place terms.
Richard Finch is 250/1, which is simply too big. Finch is a solid driver of the ball, with a good iron game. Although his form is pretty woeful, his 2nd place at last year's Nordea Masters stands out in a better class of field. This is an optimistic shout, but a good round in the West Course on Thursday could set his competitive juices flowing and set him up for a tilt at the place positions.
Of the others, Otto was strongly considered but left out. Mulroy left enough questions last week to be omitted. Aiken is too erratic and his driving inaccuracy may well see him opposed in a matchbet ahead of Friday's round 2, if the price and opponent is right. Grace was stunning for 54 holes, but is left alone at the price.
No comments:
Post a Comment