Golf tips - US PGA Championship hole by hole review

US PGA Outright selections http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/08/golf-tips-us-pga-championship-outright.html

Hi all.

In competitive terms, Kiawah is very lightly raced.   In professional golf on the men's tour, we only have the 1991 Ryder Cup, the 1997 and 2003 WGC World Cup and 2007 Senior PGA Championship to give us any guide in terms of demonstrable tournament form.  Kiawah is a pretty unique test.  Dubbed the War on the Shore in 1991, significant changes have been made to try and give players more of a fair test should the wind blow next week.  Make no mistake - if the wind blows, this will test players to the full.

The difficulty or otherwise of the holes on the course will depend largely upon wind strength and direction.  Colin Montgormerie won the individual award during the 1997 World Cup in benign conditions, but only 6 players were under par in 2007 after a brutal opening day.  In the Ryder Cup of 1991, players were hitting as much as 3W in to the par 3 17th, a hole that earlier in the event had been attacked with short irons.

The crocs around here are the very least of the players' concern.  My hole guide then will mention a little about "if the wind blows" but not much.  The long range weather forecast is not so bad to date, but we all know that long range weather forecasts are sometimes less than perfect.

Hole 1
396 yards: Par 4

This hole should offer plenty of birdie opportunities during the week.  The hole really is all about the drive.  Although quite a tight fairway, a good drive will leave players a short iron to a fairly receptive green.  Betfair traders may look to get players onside who find the short stuff from the tee, with a potential trade 25 minutes later after the par 5 2nd is completed.

Hole 2
557 yards: Par 5

Following the relatively easy 1st, players next have a shortish par 5 to attack.  Longer hitters who can shape their ball right to left from the tee will have a makeable second shot to the green, if wind allows.  Going left off the tee is not an option, with wasteland running down the left.  Right is not good either, although the effect is that the hole becomes a 3 shot hole more than it makes the hole treacherous to par.  The hole has additional complexity in that two areas of marshland run across the course.  Poor/short tee shots may necessitate a lay up between the two marshland areas, which really makes it difficult to attack the pin if tucked away on the right of a narrow green.  Bogey is possible if players are too greedy and overshoot on their 3rd shot.  Players, if unable to reach in two, will hope to get close to the large sanded area short of the green to leave a shot wedge to the pin.

Players chasing on the final day will be looking to start hot on the final day; it gets much tougher as the holes go on.


Hole 3
390 yards: Par 4

The shortest par 4 on the course next, which again offers potential birdie opportunities.  The tee shot is generous too, and players have a wide landing area, leaving a likely wedge to the tee.  However, with the green sloping away on all sides and elevated, the short 2nd shot will leave players looking rather foolish and frustrated if they run off the green and fail to get up and down.  Players again will benefit from a right to left shot shape from the tee, leaving them on the left side of the fairway and able to attack the pin from the best angle.

If looking to back players on betfair for quick profits, now may be a good time to assess your options.  The next hole is tough.

Hole 4
458 yards: Par 4

I have said it on the previous two holes, but again a right to left shape is desired from the tee to leave the ball residing on the left portion of the fairway.  Bubba any one?  Phil?  This is a tough hole and, in to a wind, the drive will dictate whether a player can even reach in 2, never mind attack the pin.  Expect to see some players opting to trust their ability to get up and down after the second shot.  The landing area is wide from the tee, but marshland can interfere with the drive if not straight.

A slightly elevated shot, with 4 waste areas surrounding the green makes the 2nd shot tough if a long iron is required.  Expect some big scores on this hole.

Hole 5
188 yards: Par 3

A short par 3, which can really be a difficult proposition if affected by wind.  Missing the green is not a great option, so players will be tempted to play towards the safer portion of the green if the wind blows, at which point the huge ridge in the middle of the green comes in to play.  The hole plays at its most difficult when the pin is over sand on the left of the greeen.  Missing the green right or even making the green right and below the ridge makes a 2-putt far from a gimme.  Again, a right to left tendency may offer some benefits here as will a high ball flight if the pin is cut left.

Hole 6
480 yards: Par 4

Again, a right to left shot shape is desired from the tee here as players can open up the approach to the green if in the left portion of the fairway.  Players who can not shape the ball here may find their tee ball leaking right and in to the rough, which makes the second shot more challenging.  The main danger in approaching the green is the sand to the left of the hole.  Also, long putts are best avoided here in a difficult, undulating green.

Hole 7
579 yards: Par 5

This hole will yield plenty of putts at eagle over the week provided the wind is not harshly against golfers.  A left to right tee shot is probably of most help, particularly with a prevailing wind. However, the tee shot should not cause too many problems for players this week.  The second shot plays in to a narrowing fairway and green, but after a good drive, players will be eyeing a minimum of birdie on this hole.  Players must not miss the hole left with their second approach.

Hole 8
198 yard: Par 3

The difficulty of this hole will be determined by the wind.  The green narrows at the back and long is not an option, which means that the centre of the green is always a sound option, particularly when the pin is cut at the back of the green.  With a prevailing wind, players will find difficulty in being long enough to get on to an elevated green, while ensuring they do not over hit to sand at the back of the green.

Hole 9
494 yards: Par 4

Another nice hole for players who have an affinity for Augusta, players able to shape the ball from right to left with both their tee shot and approach shot have best chance of threatening the pin on this hole.  Danger lurks too far left from the tee and a ball drifting right will make the second shot long and possible too long in to the wind for some.  Players will want to clear the ridge in the middle of the green for shots to the left portion of the green ad this will leave a difficult, uphill 2-putt.

Hole 10
447 yards: Par 4

Long, confident drivers, in conditions where the wind is not against have the opportunity to take this hole apart.  For most, however, a safe mid/left side of a fairway drive will leave a tricky shot to the green.  the further left the tee shot, the narrower the approach.  For this reason, a right to left shape is again beneficial for irons in to the green.  Players playing over the bunker halfway down this hole will be faced with a narrowing, but makeable drive, after which a short iron or wedge to an open green leaves a great chance to make 3.

Hole 11
593 yards: Par 5

Betfair backers may be awakened by the prospect of backing players starting on 10 as well as 1.  Depending on the wind and following the relatively easy 10th hole, this hole offers more birdie and potentially even eagle opportunities.  The hole actually favours a left to right drive and right to left approach if going for the green in two.  However, a player simply needs to fir the brief of finding the fairway from the tee in what is a relatively forgiving landing area.  Golfers looking to go for the green in two will have bunkers between them and the hole 40 yards short and a little further on and to the left of the hole.  In addition, a bunker right and just before the green awaits golfers who try to bring the ball right to left who do not quite get enough turn on their golf ball.

In many ways, this could become a tortoise and hare type hole, with great wedge players such as Donald and Stricker avoiding trouble and leaving makeable birdie putts, while longer players potentially find trouble in their approaches.  This should prove a really good and potentially pivotal hole through the week.  It is easy to visualise a great shot on the green in two being a significant moment on Sunday.

Hole 12
412 yards: Par 4

Anybody who chose a back to lay strategy on Betfair may want to get out now if the aim is short-term profit.  This hole will prove tough to birdie, although missing par will frustrate golfers too.  The fairway is generous enough for golfers to be confident of finding the fairway although deep sand left and rough and even water if right will punish the errant.

The 2nd shot is the main challenge on the this hole.  A downhill approach to a green with elevation at the front makes it difficult to land the ball short and run on to the green.  Also, due to the downhill nature of the hole, it will be easy enough fore golfers to go long, which will make par trickier.

Hole 13
497 yards: Par 4

Less than confident drivers may find severe difficulty on this hole.  Drivers going long off the tee have a canal to contend with all the way down the right of the hole.  Players going left from the tee - too far left - will find themselves in a nasty bunker and much too far away to make the green.  The canal is a feature of the hole all the way down the right of the hole.  Any semblance of wind on this hole will make this hole a potentially brutal test.  In approaching the green, players nervous of the canal on the right bring sand to the left of the hole in to play also.  This is a tough hole, unless you hit it straight.  Two good, straight blows, will make golfers wonder what all the fuss is about, but that is easier said than done.

Hole 14
238 yards: Par 3

Suddenly the course heads for home along the coast.  Coast = potential for greater winds and potentially a huge variation in potential club selections.  Players may choose conservative front right approach to this green as this really is the only reasonable place to miss the green.  This hole can ruin the scorecard of players who push left off the tee.  The green itself is not so challenging and any player finding the putting surface can be confident of a solid two putt.

Hole 15
444 yards: Par 4

The 15th represents the start of a 4 hole implosion from Calcavecchia in the 1991 Ryder Cup which allowed Colin Montgomerie to recover from 4 down, halve the match and almost help rescue the Ryder Cup for Europe.  The wind made it a nightmare stretch that day, which made conditions almost impossible.  Pete Dye has since made the course apparently more accessible should similar conditions ensue, but that is a relative statement.

In mild conditions, this hole may yield plenty of birdie opportunities as a good drive will set up a shortish iron in to what is a none too difficult to hit green.  There is trouble left, long right and to the back of the hole, but players in fair conditions should handle this hole fairly comfortably.

Hole 16
581 yards: Par 5

This hole is likely to play as a genuine 3 shot approach hole, unless players get help with a prevailing wind.  The tee shot is easy enough; over a pond and to a generous enough fairway.  The second shot leaves a decision for golfers as the green kinks right and narrows before opening up to the left for an approach to the green.  Players carrying the sand on the right with their second will be rewarded with a wedge in to an open green.  Players who have to play their shot shorter and left will face a tough time getting their third shot close.

Hole 17
223 yards: Par 3

An easy enough par 3 next.  Well, maybe not quite so.  I mentioned Monty winning 4 straight to halve in 1991.  Well, he played his shot in to the water here before his opponent shanked his shot horribly in to the water and lost the hole after him.  This is one of the scariest shots in golf and any player holding a slender 1 shot lead on Sunday will be tested fully with this tee shot.  If the wind blows, good luck.  Wind will dictate whether this is a 3 wood, 8 iron or somewhere in between.  Shorter players may even choose to bail left and short.  Or at least try to.  A player finding the surface to hold their position on 17 will have earned their chance to win on 17.

Hole 18
501 yards: Par 4

18 is another extremely tough proposition.  Players can not miss right and this tee shot very much favours a left to right tee shot which be sent out left and away from trouble.  However, unless down the right of the fairway, players probably face a right to left approach as their best shot shape in to the green.  The second shot is likely uphill, but the green itself is relatively welcoming.  Wind may prove this hole's greatest ally and can make for a brutally long test, with constant trouble for those errant off the tee.


In summary, a lot of holes seem to favour a right to left shot, but the first brief here will be to stay in play.  At 7,600 yards+, players can not afford to be overly conservative this week.  Fans of Tiger should note his caution off the tee at the open recently.  Some holes necessitate driver and most will clearly yield better scores more often if attacked.  If the wind does blow and if the weather is indifferent (initial forecasts are varied from what I have seen), level par will be a good score.  Look for players this week who are confident to put the ball out there from the tee with control.

I made a mistake in the British Open (as did many) in backing players with the expectation of adverse conditions.  Whether that pays or not here is yet to be seen, but either way, good tee to green players are essential here.

Regards

Dave (OneBet)

OneBet Racing Selections - 2nd August

2nd August

Goodwood 
14.15 - Opinion 10/1 - 1pt ew, OneBet Longshot - Hefner 20/1 - 1pt ew -4PTS
14.45 - Master of War 10/3 - 2pt Win -2PTS
15.15 - Saddlers Rock 15/8 - 3pt Win WON@2/1 +6PTS
15.45 - Midnight Soprano 8/1 - 2pt Win -2PTS
16.20 - Botanica 4/1 - 2pt Win -2PTS
16.55 - Dutch Rose 9/1 - 1pt ew -2PTS
17.20 - Marias Choice 16/1 - 1pt ew , Cresta Star 16/1 - 1pt ew -4PTS

Meeting Total:-10PTS

Golf tips - Reno Tahoe Open and WGC Bridgestone outright selections

Reno Tahoe selections
1.5pts EW John Rollins at 28/1 (Coral)
1.5pts EW Pat Perez at 28/1 (Various)
1pt EW Vaughn Taylor at 66/1 (Various)
1pt EW Roland Thatcher at 100/1 (Various)

WGC Brigestone
1st round leader: 1pt EW Scott Piercy at 80/1 (Various)
1pt EW Lee Westwood at 20/1 (Various)
1pt EW Hunter Mahan at 25/1 (Various)
1pt EW Bo Van Pelt at 40/1 (Various)
1pt EW Jason Dufner at 30/1 (BetVictor)

Safe to say I am nervous about no Tiger in my WGC tips.  However, I am willing to avoid a big bet on Woods at 5/1 - it is either that or a cover bet for a token 2pt win or so.  I am not comvinced he is yet a 5/1 shot in this class of field, despite his winning 4 events since the end of last year on courses where he has previously thrived.  It is no surprise to me if he does win, but betting is all about value.  I'm not convinced.  

Paddy Power and SkyBet offer a without Woods market.  However, I am not going to put those tips up here, due to the lack of bookmakers offering this bet  Tempting though.  I have gone for good drivers who can dial in with irons and really like the fact that Westwood has drifted after a loss of form and faith in his irons at the British Open.  The pressure is different here and he can make a big play for a first WGC title if he goes well this week.  Hope he starts well and then does not go to sleep in rounds 2 and 3, as he has a few times in this event.

Hunter misfired badly last week, but this is a different kind of tournament.Van  Pelt and Dufner have been fitting the brief most weeks.  It is a different test here, but they should still feature

OneBet Racing Selections - 1st August

1st August

Goodwood
14.00 - Cape Express 13/2 - 2pt Win -2PTS
14.35 - Olympic Glory 7/2 - 2pt Win +7PTS
15.10 - Frankel - Win No Bet
15.45 - Scatter Dice 15/2 - 2pt Win -2PTS
16.20 - Pearl Sea 2/1 - 3pt Win WON +6PTS, OneBet Longshot - Arbah 22/1 1pt ew -2PTS
16.55 - Keene Dancer 9/2 2pt Win -2PTS
17.30 - Dubawi Dancer NAP 2/1 - 3pt Win -3PTS


Meeting Total: +2PTS

Golf tips - RBC Canadian Open Outright selections

Outright Selections
2pts EW Hunter Mahan at 14/1 (Various)
1pt EW Charley Hoffman at 80/1 (Various)
1pt EW Jerry Kelly at 80/1 (Various)
1pt EW Greg Owen at 125/1 (Various)

My bets were advised earlier today on twitter; I preferred to give you the tips in good time, rather than wait for the chance to write a preview.  There is a follow link at the top of the page if you wish to catch the ramblings of me or my partner (@onebetUK)

OK.  To this week's event.  I will keep it brief, because by now, a lot of the insights that we all use for betting will have been shared already by others pundits.

For any of you yet to have a bet and just thinking of doing a quick check on players who have done well at this event in the last year or two, it is worth noting the venue here has not been used for the Canadian Open since 2006 (and 2003 before that).  Then 44 year old Bob Tway prevailed in a play-off over Brad Faxon here in 2003, with 36 year old Jim Furyk winning next time round at Hamilton in 2006.  Seems that experience can prevail here.  Those looking at last year's winner Sean O'Hair, will also have taken encouragement in his 3rd place finish here in 2006.

Hamilton GC is a thinking man's course.  Grip it and rip it does not apply here.  Fairways are tight and the penalty for missing the fairway plenty severe enough for longest to be unlikely to equal best.  This course is very much all about finding fairways and greens time and again.  The greens are quite small here, so some importance must be placed upon scrambling too, as particularly errant players will have to be able to get up and down most of the time to keep their score ticking over.  I have paid some attention to those players bent poa annua positive on the greens, but this is a lesser statistic for me this week.  Give me a guy in control of his golf ball and we will not be far wrong.

Furyk won here with -14 and Tway 3 years earlier with -21.  So, we want solid players who can score.  the credentials of Furyk are obvious this time around, but I question whether he will dial in enough on all 4 days to post the score required.  However, I am more than willing to accept I may be wrong on that one.  Furyk ranks 4 in my ranks and would probably have made the team where he 8th favourite and not 4th. We can all dream sometimes.

So, to the selections.

Hunter Mahan leaps out at me this week and is the clear number one in my system ranks.  The headline reason this is that Mahan has been stunning of late from tee to green.  In my Lyoness Open preview (link here), observes will have noted I have also placed Mahan in a double with Chris Wood, who is placed OK at -1 after round 1 in Austria.  Hunter Mahan has the following driving accuracy states in the last 4 events : 6th (British Open), 3rd, 2nd, 27th (US Open).  The two strong positives in the majors are relevant here.  If you can drive well at Lytham and Olympic, Hamilton will look like a nice place to relax from the tee.  Well, not quite, but you get my point.

Hunter's form is not great here with a 40-odd and 60-odd last two times, but he does have some form in Canada, ranking 14th in my event ranks (4th 2004, 5th 2007, 17th 2010 the highlights).  Mahan also knows how to putt on Bentgrass, winning at Bridgestone and the Shell Open in recent years, with other strong finishes along the way on bent surfaces.  I also like the way his results are shaping up.  Mahan usually hints at solid form before blasting in to contention and either winning or going close.  Before Winning the Shell Houston earlier this year, Mahan finished 15/24/24/42.  Good solid paychecks before all clicked.  From the PGA last year, Mahan went 19/43/8/42 before then going 2/4.  Before winning the WGC, Mahan went 37/17.  He is one of those players who lulls you in to a false sense of security before landing big.  I feel we have a real chance with Hunter this week.

2nd in my system ranks is Bo Van Pelt.  He would almost definitely have been on my team had the 30s still been available.  I don't like the number of times he has finished just outside the places, however, and with the price coming in to 25s, I have to leave him here.  Suffice to say, if he wins, I will be lamenting on twitter and maybe quoting this very sentence.

Charley Hoffman is next and this pick would not have come naturally at all.  However, that is why I have a system and on closer inspection, he was certainly worth a play this week at pretty big odds.  Hoffman is finally starting to play again, after a relatively lean spell post his eye-catching Deutsche Bank win of 2010.  Hoffman missed out somewhat last time at Greenbrier, decelerating to 67th after a fast start (9th after day 1).  However, in 3 of the 4 prior tournaments he had been 13th, 2nd and 22nd.  Good omens then for my 5th ranked system player.  Hoffman has also done well in this event on his 2 previous visits, finishing 28th in 2008 and 4th in 2010.  The next comment is too much of a generalisation, but does hold some truth:  Canadian Opens are typically played on shortish, tight tracks.  So, Hoffman's Canadian Open form should be seen as a positive trend, despite the fact it is a new course this year for Hoffman.  Hoffman is hitting greens, ranking 2nd, 12th, 20th and 23rd in 4 of his last 5 events.  There are few in the field who can match that sort of form (although 3 of them are also selected in my picks above).  I also like the fact that Hoffman can score well enough when in form to go away from most players in the field.  He shot -22 to win the Deutsche Bank and recently in finishing 2nd at the Travelers, shot -13.  That sort of fits the brief this week and I am happy to roll the dice here.

Talking of dice rolling, let's talk about my 2 triple figure picks.  Jerry Kelly is an experienced guy, which dovetails nicely with the profile of previous winners Furyk and Tway.  Kelly does not get it done so often these days, although the Canadian Open last year was the springboard for a fine run of 7 top 26 finishes in the last 8 events of the season.  Kelly has started his run of form a little earlier this year, entering this week on a run of 37th/12th/36th/13th.  None of those events screamed for accuracy quite like this one and on a short tight track, we find the most likely route for Kelly to feature.  11th, 2nd, 20th and 2nd for driving accuracy in the last 4 events and 80th, 5th, 7th and 22nd for greens hit tells you this man is in by far his best ball striking form of the season.  20th for total putts last week at Annandale does not put me off at all either.  My final encouragement for Kelly is that he sits 11th in my event form ranks, having been 5th in 2009 and 2005.  He doesn't land often, but I am happy to side with Kelly here.

I have talked about Greg Owen in recent player form guides, as he is having a very consistent season.  My reservation usually is about whether he can go on and compete for the win, rather than finish "nicely".  the Greenbrier rather spoiled the run, but Owen finished 9th, 11th and 17th prior to that.  Despite the MC and then a solid 54th at the Open, Owen's stats continue to show prowess where it matters.  Accuracy.  22nd for accuracy at the British and 47th for GIR was OK.  However, prior to the Greenbriers (where he was still 23rd in greens for the holes he did play), Owen finished in the top 7 for greens hit in 3 straight events. I want him on my team here at a whopping 125/1.  I think the place potential is much better than the 30+/1 odds suggest and I am really happy to have him on board.  Downsides are no Canadian Opens since 2007 and a so-so 60th here in 2006.  However, I think he is in a very good place right now and if he can recapture the groove he has had recently with his irons, he could be in for a big week

So much for the short preview...................

Regards

Dave (OneBet)

Golf Tips Lyoness Open Outright selections

Outright selections
1.5pts EW Chris Wood at 25/1 (Various)
1pt EW Anthony Wall at 35/1 (Various)
1pt EW Ignacio Garrido at 55/1 (Bet365)
0.5pts EW Steven O'Hara at 175/1 (SkyBet, 150/1 various)
0.5pts EW Adam Gee at 300/1 (Various)

0.3pts EW Chris Wood/Hunter Mahan double at 389/1 (BlueSq, 344/1 various)

A brief synopsis of my selections for this event, which starts on Wednesday.

Diamond Country Club has hosted the last two Austrian Opens prior to this year and is again used in 2012, albeit under the new and distinctly unappealing banner of the Lyoness Open.  Looking at past trends for the last two years, we see the importance clearly of finding greens and fairways.  Good putters will thrive here on  relatively good greens, but the trick to this course is about consistently finding the short stuff.

This year, with  damp conditions and the threat of some adverse weather during the week, this near 7,400 yard course may play tough for some of the tour's shorter hitters.  Therefore, I believe the brief is slightly different to usual desired attributes.  I want players who trend well in total driving (distance and accuracy) and control their irons consistently.

My final point is a lesser one over 4 days, but certainly can be a factor early on day 1.  If looking to trade on Betfair or looking at 1st round leader bets, it may pay to select players who start early on Wednesday from the 10th tee.  Players starting on 10, play the following hole ranks in their first 6 holes: 17, 8, 15, 16, 6, 11.  It gets tougher after that and the 5 hole stretch from 16 through 2 is the toughest on the course, but I would rather have a player onside who has got their rhythm and a decent start before facing this challenge.  I have backed Gee, O'Hara and Wood on Betfair personally with a view to trading before the 16th hole (thier 7th).  All 3 start early, all 3 start on the 10th and all 3 have chances in my view here, as my preview below will detail.

So, given it is Tuesday night and I am neglecting my PGA obligations to date, I am going to move straight to my selections.

Chris Wood finally breaks his duck this week, or so my system says.  In this quality of field, Wood's solid recent tour-wide stats of around 40th for driving distance, accuracy and GIR is both solid and also better than the great majority of this field.  With a fair wind, Wood would have two titles to his name already this season, having produced a stunning final round in Sicily, which was a shot shy of Olesen's debut winning total.  In the BMW international Open, Wood narrowly missed the play-off having looked the winner at various stages of the final round.  The number of recent first time winners (Olesen, Donaldson, Weisberger, Willett) should give Wood confidence that he can be next.  He may not get a better chance than this. I have also added a small double with Wood and Mahan.  I really do think that Wood should go well here.  He starts on the easier holes and that should hopefully give him the springboard to get involved and stay involved.  As I will summarise with my Canadian Open preview, I am equally bullish about the chances for Hunter Mahan so am happy to play a small double.

Anthony Wall has started to threaten leaderboards again after a pretty lean spell in the last couple of years.  In the last 10 events, wall has been in the  top 6 3 times, the highlight of which was a recent T2nd behind Jamie Donaldson in the Irish Open.  I love tournaments where my top system picks are not at the head of the betting and Wall is 2nd in my ranks this week.  While Olesen and Weisberger have ability in abundance, they are far from reliable market leaders.  Wall does not hit the ball as far as the biggest hitters, but he is not quite short either.  However, Wall makes the team due to his ball striking prowess.  A repeat of his -14 at the Irish Open will see him go very close this week.

Ignacio Garrido is a big box ticker for this event in terms of the photo-fit player we want here.  The concern as usual is whether Garrido has the fitness to contend over 4 days.  I am very happy to take the chance at 55/1.  Garrido's finishes are not exactly stellar this year, although 4 finishes between 9th and 11th (including last time out, 11th at the Scottish Open) shows that he can still perform very solidly on tour.  It is 9 years now since Garrido last prevailed, but I really believe he can contend this week.  11th last time out as mentioned, Garrido enters this week in good form.  Garrido has good season long stats for greens hit and driving accuracy and he ranks the best in my recent form ranks for these two metrics.  Expect Garrido to play very solidly this week, with one big round potentially pushing him right in to contention.

Some longer shots to finish.  Steve O'Hara missed the cut here last year, which initially is a negative of course. However, O'Hara's ball striking in recent weeks is his best of the season and he can go close if he repeats that form here.  In my recent form ranks on tour, O'Hara ranks 37th for driving distance, 33rd for accuracy and 16th for greens in regulation. 175/1 is massive and I a more than happy to chance that O'Hara can trouble the places this week.

Adam Gee is way out of left field, but I am basically playing that this 300/1 shot can dial in with his irons and contend.  Gee's season long stats are impressive for driving distance and GIR, with a none too bad driving accuracy stat either.  Often let down by his putting, I am playing here that Gee finds his share of greens, but also is aided by both a true putting challenge on fine greens but also a slower challenge, with the moisture slowing the surface and helping to reduce the edge of the great putters.

Regards

Dave (OneBet)

OneBet Racing Selections 21st July

21st July

Cartmel
14.25 Foundry Square 5/2 - 2pt Win WON +4.5PTS
15.00 Kilvergan Boy 3/1 - 2pw Win -2PTS
15.35 Colditz 4/1 - 2pt Win -2PTS
16.10 Postmaster 7/1 - 1pt ew -2PTS
16.50 Silverlord 8/1 - 1pt ew -2PTS
17.25 Lieutenant Miller 8/1 - 2pt Win -2PTS, Royal Riviera 12/1 1pt ew NR
17.55 Desolait 3/1 -2pt Win WON +6PTS


Meeting Total: +0.5PTS

Market Rasen
13.45 Ctappers 3/1 - 2pt Win WON +6PTS
14.15 DJ Milan 10/1 - 1p ew -2PTS
14.50 Absinthe 5/1 - 2pt Win =2PTS
15.25 Alco 5/1 - 2pt Win, OneBet Longshot - Stonethrower 33/1 - 1pt ew -4PTS
16.00 Compton Blue 9/1 - 1pt ew -2PTS
16.40 Ballbough Gorta 6/4 - 3pt Win -3PTS
17.15 Well Green 9/2 - 2pt Win -2PTS


Meeting Total: -9PTS


Daily Total: -8.5PTS