Outright results
3pt win Rory McIlroy at 20/1 (won +60pts)
1pt EW Bo Van Pelt at 66/1 (finished T18)
1pt EW Martin Laird at 125/1 (finished T42nd)
1.5pt EW Bubba Watson at 40/1 (finished T11)
1.5pt EW Jason Dufner at 40/1 (finished T27)
Rory McIlroy found a fitting way to return to number 1 in the World, by landing the Final major of 2012 and the 2nd of his career. And it was easy too. Rory just held it together much, much better than all others. I highlighted in my US PGA preview that, Shaun Micheel apart, this tournament since the turn of the century produced winners who had won on tour and arrived in form. Rory was one of the 14 that could have continued that trend and did. So, expect a cut and paste when I preview this event next year.
Like the British Open, I was left underwhelmed by the inability of many others to get it together when conditions gave them the best chance to do so. Ian Poulter was the only threat on the final day, coming from deep to show the others how it could be done. Justin Rose showed on both days that it was distinctly possible to get hot and post a score too. Finally, the solid weekend from David Lynn in benign conditions to finish solo 2nd was proof evident that not enough players got it together over at least 3 of the 4 days. Lynn is a good player and a solid professional, but his 2nd place will leave others rueful for sure.
Let's look at my selections for the event. My 2nd win only tip of the year (I think - Phil, who lost a play-off to Haas) was a useful one, because I picked Rory McIlroy. He delivered 50 points profit on the week (3pt win at 20/1 minus 10pts on other selections). No need to question whether we got that tip right. The other four picks all are an example of what might have been.
Bo Van Pelt stood on the 14th tee T4th and 2 shots from a locked in automatic Ryder Cup slot. He walked off 18 having dropped 3 shots - no pay out for us then and sadly typical of a season for him which has been wonderfully consistent, but short on top 5 finishes. He might just go and win one of these things out of the blue soon. Bubba Watson's weekend was bettered only by the likes of Rose, Lynn and McIlroy. That he finished 2 shots outside the places is really due to a poor first round. Watson played in the (slightly) trickier afternoon slot, but really left himself in a tough place with that first round of +1. He is back though. Jason Dufner also motored through the field over the weekend, but in the easiest of Thursday conditions imploded late on to post +2. 8 off the lead after day 1 and only 6 from 2nd at the end tells you he could have placed quite easily. Martin Laird was our 125/1 long shot. He played rounds 1, 2 and 4 in -3, which is better playing than almost the entire field, but shot 79 on Saturday, which generally was a great day for scoring.
The major winners this year read as follows:
Bubba Watson - good win for the game and clearly a guy that will contend often for majors.
Webb Simpson - a quieter season having been within a few holes of landing the US Money prize last year.....that was until he won the US Open. Again, a very good winner in the sense that he has proven his class on tour. After a good Presidents Cup in Australia, it will be interesting to see how he fares in Ryder Cup this year.
Ernie Els - while I am glad that he won, I am a little underwhelmed by this one. Els played the most solidly and won. He deserved too as well. Leaderboards don't lie. Els also challenged well in the US Open, but I wonder is this is more more a major title swan song than a sign of things to come.
Rory McIlroy - The returning world no.1 and arguably best placed to take that title forward if he gets the mental side of the game right. A great winner of the event.
All in all, a very good year for bringing class to the winner's enclosure in Major golf. Having Tiger contending in 3 of them did no harm either of course.
Finally, I am going to give a few headline grades for some of the players in the field this week
A* : McIlroy (star pupil) and David Lynn (maximised ability)
A :Keegan Bradley (brilliant follow up to last week and good title defence), John Daly (great run of form and wonderful to see him back), Jamie Donaldson (European Tour winner and now major contender. Great play), Ian Poulter (the course is too long for him, isn't it? Great play), Pettersson/Adams (very solid weeks from both)
A- : Justin Rose (yes a good result, but he should be really contending for the W. Lazy 2nd round), Michael Hoey (great 2nd round and huge credit for admitting the error which caused his DQ)
B+ : Tim Clark (the guy is back, fit and back where he belongs)
B : Tiger Woods (no, not an F. Tiger is the only person who has threatened to win the last 3 majors. He is under huge scrutiny every weekend of every major and will be until he wins again. Solid effort from ONE OF THE best players on the planet, but no longer undisputedly THE best), Steve Stricker (solid week for short hits, but rather fell away after storming in to contention in Rd3), Darren Clarke (huge made cut for him after a horror year)! Webb Simpson (missed cut after an understandable poor first round due to ring-rustiness. Second round of E par 5th best in field was a fine effort and almost made the weekend. Solid tune up ahead of Wyndham defence)
B- : my three of Dufner, Bubba and Van Pelt. All had lapses and all should have finished better, but played generally well
C : Oosthuizen and Harrington. (Harrington is not quite there and Oosthuizen realLy should have have been), Phil (briefly excited and then swiftly exited from the main stage. Another distinctly average week for him. Where has the early season zing gone?)
D : Dustin, Els. No zing at all.
E : Luke. The good final day really strengthened how poor the first 3 days had been. The deposed number 1 was meek in the wake of Rory's glory.
Regards
DAVE (OneBet)
- Posted using BlogPress from my iPad
Proofing to Secret Betting Club since January 12th 2012
Monday, 13 August 2012
Saturday, 11 August 2012
USPGA Midpoint considerations
The final golf major of the year is beautifully poised at the halfway stage, with the weather obliterating many in the field yesterday but not at the expense of proven class high on the leaderboard.
5 players managed to beat par yesterday - I am most certainly including the desperately unlucky Michael Hoey in this list, who was DQ after reporting his own failure to replace sand on the ball. Formal round averages can not yet be gleaned as Joost Luiten still has his round to finish, but the players went round in an average 6.1 over par yesterday. The thing that surprises me most is that Ian Poulter could get around in sub par, but so many other great ball strikers were simply blown away. Poulter is a great grinder for sure, but he is also one of the shorter hitters on tour. So, if he can get it under par on the longest course in major championship history, I rather fancy a few out there will be underwhelmed with their efforts yesterday.
I am going to give some thoughts on the leaderboard, but please note I do it this week without my usual armoury of stats at my disposal. I am away from home with only an iPad and an intermittent connection.
Tiger Woods - For the 3rd major in succession, Tiger looms large at the halfway stage. At the US Open, he co-led with Furyk at this point before falling away, largely due to an inability to play the super-tough opening 6 hole stretch well. No such problems here at the start of the round, as the front 9 is the easier of the two, although nothing should be taken for granted; every hole is tough when the wind blows. In the British Open, Tiger never went away, but never quite got there either. Who am I to question Tiger of course, but I still believe his choice of iron off all bar a couple of tees cost him over the 4 days. It was his to win.
So what of his chances here? First of all, he simply has to be favourite at this stage. I checked a couple of forecasts before writing this. On Saturday golfing conditions are ranked only 4 out of 10, but improve to 8 tomorrow. At this course, 4 out of 10 is not where you want it to be. Tiger is scrambling great, making a number of 1-putts to keep his score ticking over. Question is whether he can continue to do that. If so, he has an outstanding chance. If not, I would question whether he is hitting enough greens. Much will depend on where the organisers choose to place the pins on the last 2 days. I suspect that on Saturday the pins will be more accessible, which makes both approaches and up and downs eminently more possible. On Sunday perhaps less so and a number of up and downs will incorporate shots across undulating greens.
Tiger is the favourite, but he has to improve his tee to green game to have a serious chance of winning. I believe an over par round is likely over the weekend and both the elements and the performance of others will dictate how costly this is. There will be a lot of pressure on him if he hits the front on Sunday. I have my doubts and would not be backing him at his current price.
Carl Pettersson - Pettersson co-leads at halfway, but is readily dismissed by layers at 25/1. I think bookmaker pricing is largely to deflect outlay away from Tiger in such events. They have to try and at least even their books, which is mighty tough when Tiger or prominent. Pettersson has never made the places in a major, but has the right sort of credentials to do so. A lot of punters talked up Pettersson before the US Open and with good reason. When it comes to shaping your ball off the tee, Pettersson is a good man to trust. When it comes to playing technical, tight par 70s, again Pettersson is a man to look at seriously. His win earlier this season was seriously impressive - Pettersson is one of the few this year to have hit the front and then gone impressively away from his challengers over the weekend. A multiple tour winner and comfortably within the world's top 50, he is not lightly dismissed here. 3 late bogeys will have jolted his confidence of course yesterday, but this guy is plenty good enough to start afresh today.
My main concern with Pettersson is how well he maintains form through to
Late Sunday. Pettersson is hardly the fittest guy on tour and surely this course asks more questions than most of your fitness. I also wonder whether the long putter keeps on rolling the, well on the green in stiff winds and across large greens.
Over all, 25/1 feels like just about the right price. Pettersson lost his way in holes 7-9 yesterday (his 16th-18th). If still somewhere near the top, he could be worth looking at at 45 and not 36 holes.
Vijay Singh completes the trio at the top. The oldest major winner were he to do it, Vijay has one of the very best CVs in the field. Of course, his CV is filled with highlights in years gone by, but a Vijay Singh untroubled by back injuries is still capable of great play. Singh still hits it long and remains a wizard with the wedge when playing well. His 69 yesterday was the only round in the 60s and demonstrates just how well he is controlling his golf ball. I highlighted in a midpoint preview earlier this year just how readily Singh has been blowing good positions at halfway in the last 2 years (possibly due to the challenge of staying in peak condition over 4 days). However, two top 10s including the British Open coming in suggest he is playing injury free right now.
That said, it is a long time since Singh placed in a major and it is a rare occurrence indeed for him to contend in regular PGA tour events. I think the 12/1 quotes on offer are something nearing lunacy. He might win, but after the headline grabbing 69, my instinct would be to fancy him to finish outside the top 20 before he wins. An avoid for me.
Ian Poulter is a guy I usually look to on faster putting surfaces.........or when the wind blows. He was fantastic in chasing Harrington down the stretch in the 2009 British Open when I think +3 won the event. His round yesterday was pretty special given his relative lack of weapons. Problem is, he is 3rd favourite and only 11/1. I think I need 20/1 before I am going in on Poulter here. I would love to see him do it though.
Jamie Donaldson has no hope, right? Well,I am not entirely convinced of that. 2 shots from the lead and recently having broken his duck on the European Tour, Donaldson is scaling new heights this year. For years, he has been in that small group of players on tour who you thought had to win an event sooner or later. The question is whether his winning on tour has made him able to compete in this company. I can't answer that one, but I know it will be tough. 50/1 is quite some price for a guy right in contention. I think if he was a bit better than the 55s available on Betfair I might think him worthy of a back to lay, but I can't trust him at the price. The 50/1 is really an 11.5/1 place price. It isn't bad, but he is in with the big boys here and the leaderboard is too star-studded for it to feel great value.
Rory McIlroy is both my win only pre-event tip and also the clear 2nd favourite behind Woods in the betting at 8/1. I made some money on him yesterday, confident he would slip back. It didn't take a genius to work that out and the lay to back strategy was pretty easy money on Betfair. However, Rory stuck to the task pretty well and will be likely buoyed at having coped better than most in trying conditions. The question with Rory is whether he can stay close enough to the head of things on Saturday? If so, potentially improved conditions on Sunday means he has a chance.
I can see a script where Rory lies 3 off the pace after round 3 and gets hot to win the event, but I would not back him now at 8/1 to do so. I believe his chances of being much shorter in the betting come the end of today are quite slim. Therefore, it makes every sense to consider bother lay to back to strategy - lay him at 9.4 or so and back him at 15 or so to try and get free profit should he win. Alternatively, wait and see if he is in the mix and look again after round 3 would be my advice.
Of the layers at -1, I most like Immelmann because he won the team event here in 2003. Scott at 14s is poorly priced. Blake Adams is probably best equipped of the 4 to go well (mindful of a strong showing at Sawgrass) but least well equipped when it comes to contending. However, the 80/1 certainly tempts me to risk that he contends here. That is a nice price indeed. Immelmann at 66s is decent too, but I would love to have seen him 80s too. Aaron Baddeley is a player I really like and he has the tools to become much more prominent on tour than he is now. However, 40/1 is pretty dire odds.
And so to the players at evens. It is great to see Phil in contention. The golfing world needs the best players playing well and going for majors. I hope he stays in there. He is 25s, which is not bad. However, if you want to back him, expect the jumpy Betfair punters to offer you nice value. If he birdies a hole early, he will leap forward. This is entirely artificial, as he may then shoot +8 (as anybody can around here) but that is the beauty of Betfair. My strongest play on Phil is a Betfair play. I am on the fence about whether it is a great play, however.
McDowell, Hansen and Clark are also evens and I can make a case for all. McDowell keeps contending in majors and won a very tough US Open in just the sort of way he would need to here - by hanging tough. The layers know it though and 28s is tight enough for me. Clark is another short hitter who, like Poulter, is showing there is more than way to score round here. It is hard not to like 100/1. Consider this brief. If you are level par today and end the tournament level par, you are likely to place and might win. That statement is weather dependent, but it is has a lot to it. So, it is 25/1 on a place that Tim Clark stays still. I like that. I like it for Hansen, McDowell and Mickelson too by the way. Hansen at 66s has merits, particularly given his charge through the field in the masters and his general ability to progress over the weekend - I backed him at halfway at the British Open for this reason.
To finish, is there anybody else that can go under par for the weekend from their current over par position and place or even win. Molinari can play tough pretty well and Zach proved that well at Sawgrass. Marcel Siem just lost out to Danny Willett on the European Tour in tough conditions recently and could shock a few. Jacobson and Van Pelt have merits for hanging tough and playing solid golf and may yet have a say. Harrington just is not there any more. I have not backed him once this season and have no intention to do so now. He needs to prove it to me. I am not one for theories. That said, he could get close agin by just hanging around.
I mentioned Leishmania as one who can go well if it gets tough and he produced a fine round yesterday. He might be able to do something pretty outrageous versus the field over the weekend and shock them all. At +3, a frustrated Ernie Els needs to buy a putt or two. He will look at the similarity of his position here and at the British Open. Solid enough, but not really contending. I think he is too far back and his frustration is because he can not hole a putt. If he holes a few, he is one that can move forward. There is some value in the place market for Ernie, although the layers are still wary of this fact. Same point for Harrington as well.
Enjoy the weekend and let's hope that one of my tips before the off does something special. All 5 made it, but realistically only Rory, Laird and Van Pelt have a chance over the weekend.
Regards
DAVE (OneBet)
- Posted using BlogPress from my iPad
5 players managed to beat par yesterday - I am most certainly including the desperately unlucky Michael Hoey in this list, who was DQ after reporting his own failure to replace sand on the ball. Formal round averages can not yet be gleaned as Joost Luiten still has his round to finish, but the players went round in an average 6.1 over par yesterday. The thing that surprises me most is that Ian Poulter could get around in sub par, but so many other great ball strikers were simply blown away. Poulter is a great grinder for sure, but he is also one of the shorter hitters on tour. So, if he can get it under par on the longest course in major championship history, I rather fancy a few out there will be underwhelmed with their efforts yesterday.
I am going to give some thoughts on the leaderboard, but please note I do it this week without my usual armoury of stats at my disposal. I am away from home with only an iPad and an intermittent connection.
Tiger Woods - For the 3rd major in succession, Tiger looms large at the halfway stage. At the US Open, he co-led with Furyk at this point before falling away, largely due to an inability to play the super-tough opening 6 hole stretch well. No such problems here at the start of the round, as the front 9 is the easier of the two, although nothing should be taken for granted; every hole is tough when the wind blows. In the British Open, Tiger never went away, but never quite got there either. Who am I to question Tiger of course, but I still believe his choice of iron off all bar a couple of tees cost him over the 4 days. It was his to win.
So what of his chances here? First of all, he simply has to be favourite at this stage. I checked a couple of forecasts before writing this. On Saturday golfing conditions are ranked only 4 out of 10, but improve to 8 tomorrow. At this course, 4 out of 10 is not where you want it to be. Tiger is scrambling great, making a number of 1-putts to keep his score ticking over. Question is whether he can continue to do that. If so, he has an outstanding chance. If not, I would question whether he is hitting enough greens. Much will depend on where the organisers choose to place the pins on the last 2 days. I suspect that on Saturday the pins will be more accessible, which makes both approaches and up and downs eminently more possible. On Sunday perhaps less so and a number of up and downs will incorporate shots across undulating greens.
Tiger is the favourite, but he has to improve his tee to green game to have a serious chance of winning. I believe an over par round is likely over the weekend and both the elements and the performance of others will dictate how costly this is. There will be a lot of pressure on him if he hits the front on Sunday. I have my doubts and would not be backing him at his current price.
Carl Pettersson - Pettersson co-leads at halfway, but is readily dismissed by layers at 25/1. I think bookmaker pricing is largely to deflect outlay away from Tiger in such events. They have to try and at least even their books, which is mighty tough when Tiger or prominent. Pettersson has never made the places in a major, but has the right sort of credentials to do so. A lot of punters talked up Pettersson before the US Open and with good reason. When it comes to shaping your ball off the tee, Pettersson is a good man to trust. When it comes to playing technical, tight par 70s, again Pettersson is a man to look at seriously. His win earlier this season was seriously impressive - Pettersson is one of the few this year to have hit the front and then gone impressively away from his challengers over the weekend. A multiple tour winner and comfortably within the world's top 50, he is not lightly dismissed here. 3 late bogeys will have jolted his confidence of course yesterday, but this guy is plenty good enough to start afresh today.
My main concern with Pettersson is how well he maintains form through to
Late Sunday. Pettersson is hardly the fittest guy on tour and surely this course asks more questions than most of your fitness. I also wonder whether the long putter keeps on rolling the, well on the green in stiff winds and across large greens.
Over all, 25/1 feels like just about the right price. Pettersson lost his way in holes 7-9 yesterday (his 16th-18th). If still somewhere near the top, he could be worth looking at at 45 and not 36 holes.
Vijay Singh completes the trio at the top. The oldest major winner were he to do it, Vijay has one of the very best CVs in the field. Of course, his CV is filled with highlights in years gone by, but a Vijay Singh untroubled by back injuries is still capable of great play. Singh still hits it long and remains a wizard with the wedge when playing well. His 69 yesterday was the only round in the 60s and demonstrates just how well he is controlling his golf ball. I highlighted in a midpoint preview earlier this year just how readily Singh has been blowing good positions at halfway in the last 2 years (possibly due to the challenge of staying in peak condition over 4 days). However, two top 10s including the British Open coming in suggest he is playing injury free right now.
That said, it is a long time since Singh placed in a major and it is a rare occurrence indeed for him to contend in regular PGA tour events. I think the 12/1 quotes on offer are something nearing lunacy. He might win, but after the headline grabbing 69, my instinct would be to fancy him to finish outside the top 20 before he wins. An avoid for me.
Ian Poulter is a guy I usually look to on faster putting surfaces.........or when the wind blows. He was fantastic in chasing Harrington down the stretch in the 2009 British Open when I think +3 won the event. His round yesterday was pretty special given his relative lack of weapons. Problem is, he is 3rd favourite and only 11/1. I think I need 20/1 before I am going in on Poulter here. I would love to see him do it though.
Jamie Donaldson has no hope, right? Well,I am not entirely convinced of that. 2 shots from the lead and recently having broken his duck on the European Tour, Donaldson is scaling new heights this year. For years, he has been in that small group of players on tour who you thought had to win an event sooner or later. The question is whether his winning on tour has made him able to compete in this company. I can't answer that one, but I know it will be tough. 50/1 is quite some price for a guy right in contention. I think if he was a bit better than the 55s available on Betfair I might think him worthy of a back to lay, but I can't trust him at the price. The 50/1 is really an 11.5/1 place price. It isn't bad, but he is in with the big boys here and the leaderboard is too star-studded for it to feel great value.
Rory McIlroy is both my win only pre-event tip and also the clear 2nd favourite behind Woods in the betting at 8/1. I made some money on him yesterday, confident he would slip back. It didn't take a genius to work that out and the lay to back strategy was pretty easy money on Betfair. However, Rory stuck to the task pretty well and will be likely buoyed at having coped better than most in trying conditions. The question with Rory is whether he can stay close enough to the head of things on Saturday? If so, potentially improved conditions on Sunday means he has a chance.
I can see a script where Rory lies 3 off the pace after round 3 and gets hot to win the event, but I would not back him now at 8/1 to do so. I believe his chances of being much shorter in the betting come the end of today are quite slim. Therefore, it makes every sense to consider bother lay to back to strategy - lay him at 9.4 or so and back him at 15 or so to try and get free profit should he win. Alternatively, wait and see if he is in the mix and look again after round 3 would be my advice.
Of the layers at -1, I most like Immelmann because he won the team event here in 2003. Scott at 14s is poorly priced. Blake Adams is probably best equipped of the 4 to go well (mindful of a strong showing at Sawgrass) but least well equipped when it comes to contending. However, the 80/1 certainly tempts me to risk that he contends here. That is a nice price indeed. Immelmann at 66s is decent too, but I would love to have seen him 80s too. Aaron Baddeley is a player I really like and he has the tools to become much more prominent on tour than he is now. However, 40/1 is pretty dire odds.
And so to the players at evens. It is great to see Phil in contention. The golfing world needs the best players playing well and going for majors. I hope he stays in there. He is 25s, which is not bad. However, if you want to back him, expect the jumpy Betfair punters to offer you nice value. If he birdies a hole early, he will leap forward. This is entirely artificial, as he may then shoot +8 (as anybody can around here) but that is the beauty of Betfair. My strongest play on Phil is a Betfair play. I am on the fence about whether it is a great play, however.
McDowell, Hansen and Clark are also evens and I can make a case for all. McDowell keeps contending in majors and won a very tough US Open in just the sort of way he would need to here - by hanging tough. The layers know it though and 28s is tight enough for me. Clark is another short hitter who, like Poulter, is showing there is more than way to score round here. It is hard not to like 100/1. Consider this brief. If you are level par today and end the tournament level par, you are likely to place and might win. That statement is weather dependent, but it is has a lot to it. So, it is 25/1 on a place that Tim Clark stays still. I like that. I like it for Hansen, McDowell and Mickelson too by the way. Hansen at 66s has merits, particularly given his charge through the field in the masters and his general ability to progress over the weekend - I backed him at halfway at the British Open for this reason.
To finish, is there anybody else that can go under par for the weekend from their current over par position and place or even win. Molinari can play tough pretty well and Zach proved that well at Sawgrass. Marcel Siem just lost out to Danny Willett on the European Tour in tough conditions recently and could shock a few. Jacobson and Van Pelt have merits for hanging tough and playing solid golf and may yet have a say. Harrington just is not there any more. I have not backed him once this season and have no intention to do so now. He needs to prove it to me. I am not one for theories. That said, he could get close agin by just hanging around.
I mentioned Leishmania as one who can go well if it gets tough and he produced a fine round yesterday. He might be able to do something pretty outrageous versus the field over the weekend and shock them all. At +3, a frustrated Ernie Els needs to buy a putt or two. He will look at the similarity of his position here and at the British Open. Solid enough, but not really contending. I think he is too far back and his frustration is because he can not hole a putt. If he holes a few, he is one that can move forward. There is some value in the place market for Ernie, although the layers are still wary of this fact. Same point for Harrington as well.
Enjoy the weekend and let's hope that one of my tips before the off does something special. All 5 made it, but realistically only Rory, Laird and Van Pelt have a chance over the weekend.
Regards
DAVE (OneBet)
- Posted using BlogPress from my iPad
Monday, 6 August 2012
Golf Tips - US PGA Championship outright selections
Outright selections
3pt Win Rory McIlroy at 20/1 (Various)
1pt EW Bo Van Pelt at 66/1 (General)
1pt EW Martin Laird at 125/1 (Vairous)
Previously advised
1.5pt EW Bubba Watson at 40/1 (Various)
1.5pt Ew Jason Dufner at 40/1 (Various)
Kiawah hole by hole guide http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/08/golf-tips-us-pga-championship-hole-by.html
3pt Win Rory McIlroy at 20/1 (Various)
1pt EW Bo Van Pelt at 66/1 (General)
1pt EW Martin Laird at 125/1 (Vairous)
Previously advised
1.5pt EW Bubba Watson at 40/1 (Various)
1.5pt Ew Jason Dufner at 40/1 (Various)
Kiawah hole by hole guide http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/08/golf-tips-us-pga-championship-hole-by.html
The US PGA is the least vaunted of the 4 majors on the golfing calendar but, in my view at least, I think we have an intriguing proposition this week that will may live long in the memory. First, we have the cream of the game competing this week, with the World Ranking invites going beyond 100th place; everybody is here this week.
There are a number of subplots within the field also. Keegan Bradley defends this week and tuned up superbly by gunning down Jim Furyk last week to lift his first WGC title. However, as is likely to be the case for the foreseeable future, Tiger Woods is clearly at the head of the betting. Woods finished well last week to make the top 10. He was let down by nothing more than his putter last week and may have a huge say in the outcome as he continues to seek a comeback major. Rory McIlroy is finally awakening from his mini slump and seems capable of challenging again. World No.1 Luke Donald is also playing well and seems capable of raising his game most when his world no.1 status is threatened.
Perhaps more importantly than the fact that certain players arrive with headline chances is the fact that majors continue to be spread liberally around the world's finest - and not quite finest - golfers. 16 majors, 16 different winners. There is no sense that you can pin your hopes to any player right now with unabashed confidence
In my hole by hole guide (link here) of the course, I tried to give a feel for what players will expect at Kiawah Island this week. Heavy rain at time of writing and in the weeks leading up to the event mean that the longest course in Major Championship history just got longer. A long course does not necessarily equal a bombers course, however, as Jim Furyk showed as recently as the US Open when just failing to land the event at Olympic. However, with generous landing areas on many fairways, players who can hit the ball a long way from the tee have a potentially critical advantage this week. For me, the key attributes are as follows:
Total driving - Players really need to be at least quite long from the tee, but also pretty straight. On many holes, the cost of missing the fairway (particularly to the right) will be a heavy one. However, there is also an advantage on several risk/reward holes of choosing and hitting the longer of two driving areas.
Ability to shape the ball both ways, with a right to left game most desired - The hole by hole preview I posted reiterated the importance of shot shape, with many holes showing a clear advantage for players moving the ball right to left. I picked Bubba last night on Twitter because I had to advise him while the price was still value (Bubba has already come in to 35/1 since). The more I studied the course and hole by hole requirements, the more I could picture holes which would suit Bubba's eye.
A great scrambling game - Obviously players who consistently hit greens will need this part of their game less, but I fancy the winner this week will have got up and down from around the green better than many.
Fairways and greens - hit them both. Often
Solid putting - Players are likely to face several putts of 5-10 feet to make par, either because they have had to chip on to undulating greens, or because they have putted across greens up to 10,000sq feet. Players will have to consistently hole out to keep their score ticking over, especially if the wind gets up. Although the green speed is only expected to reach between 10 and 11 on the stimpmeter by the off, a solid putting stroke will be oft required, especially as the papsalum greens are not experienced often by the field.
Before explaining my choices, I want to highlight two consistent themes that apply to recent winners of this event: Previous winners tend to have already won earlier that year and arrive
in demonstrable form.
Let’s take a look at that point
2011: Winner Keegan Bradley, who also won the Byron Nelson
in May. 15th at Firestone the
week before.
2010: Winner Martin Kaymer, who won the Abu Dhabi Golf
Championship in January. 22nd
at Firestone the week before.
2009: Winner YE Yang, who also landed the Volvo Classic and
Honda Classic in 2009. 19th
at Firestone the week before.
2008: Winner Padraig Harrington, also 2008 Open Champion. 20th at Firestone the week
before.
2007/2006: Winner both years Tiger, who won 13 other events
in those 2 years. Winner by 8 at
Firestone in 07 and winner at the Buick 2 weeks before in 06 (WGC Bridgestone
was held after the PGA prior to 07 and the Buick was Woods’ last event before
the PGA)
2005: Winner Phil Mickelson, winner of 3 tournaments prior to
the PGA that year. 10th at
the International the week before.
2004: Winner Vijay Singh, four time tour winner that year
prior to the event. First at the Buick
two weeks before, Singh’s last event prior to the PGA.
2003: Winner Shaun Micheel, with no prior wins that year. 60th at the International.
2002: Winner Rich Beem, winner of The International 2 weeks
prior to the PGA, which was his last event prior to the PGA.
2001: Winner David Toms, Compaq Classic winner earlier that
year. 35th at the Buick the
week before.
Aside from Shaun Micheel, the last 11 years has seen a previous winner on the PGA or European tour that year prevail in this event. Also, aside from Micheel and to a lesser
extent David Toms in 2001, the winner has demonstrated they are in good shape
in the event immediately prior to the PGA.
If we take the logic above as a very strong barometer of our
likely winner this week, we can dissect and eliminate a number of players from
this week’s field. There are 18 players
in the field who finished in the top 30 in the last event and also have won on
one of the major tours this year. They
are as follows:
Player
|
Last
tournament
|
Last
3 event average
|
2012
winner?
|
Keegan Bradley
|
1
|
27
|
Yes
|
Steve Stricker
|
2
|
10
|
Yes
|
Louis Oosthuizen
|
4
|
16
|
Yes
|
Rory McIlroy
|
5
|
25
|
Yes
|
Justin Rose
|
5
|
37
|
Yes
|
Thorbjorn Olesen
|
5
|
17
|
Yes
|
Jason Dufner
|
7
|
14
|
Yes
|
Webb Simpson
|
7
|
12
|
Yes
|
Scott Stallings
|
7
|
52
|
Yes
|
Tiger Woods
|
8
|
32
|
Yes
|
Luke Donald
|
8
|
10
|
Yes
|
Matt Kuchar
|
8
|
17
|
Yes
|
Kyle Stanley
|
16
|
39
|
Yes
|
Dustin Johnson
|
19
|
20
|
Yes
|
Bubba Watson
|
19
|
15
|
Yes
|
Bill Haas
|
19
|
24
|
Yes
|
Scott Piercy
|
19
|
8
|
Yes
|
Rafael Cabrera Bello
|
29
|
52
|
Yes
|
I use statistics a lot in my analysis. And, although this is a little
one-dimensional, I would certainly be hesitant in having onside any players who
could not get near the head of the field at Bridgestone last week.
So, we want players who can find fairways and greens and hit it longer than average, as well as being able to scramble and putt solidly when required. We also ideally want recent winners, who arrive with their game in good shape. So to my choices.
Bubba Watson - A winner at Augusta this year of course and I have said much about Bubba already of course. With a first major and a first child, it is entirely expected that Bubba's form would have dipped a little. However, the signes are there that he is coming back. Bubba produced his best finish at the British Open and followed up with a very solid T19 at Firestone last week. However, the most compelling case I can make for Bubba is the course's requirements. Bubba has the right shot shape for this course and is plenty long enough. He will be more comfortable than most moving the ball away from the main danger, which is usually on the right off the tee. In addition, Bubba's continues to lead GIR stats on tour. His ability to do so from off the fairway will be key again this week where required. I fully expect Bubba to enjoy himself this week. If the wind gets high, I have my doubts, but I am not convinced he will be particularly blown away versus the rest of the field even if it does blow. I also like the fact that Bubba made the play-off at the Pete Dye designed Whistling Straits in 2010, which is perhaps the most closely aligned Dye design to this. I expect Bubba to give us a fun ride this week and he may just pick up a second major.
Jason Dufner - There is nobody I trust to go well this week more than Dufner. We just missed with him last week, but I see no reason to leave him out this at all. I watched with anguish as Dufner played his 3rd round in +2 to slip away from the leaders. He didn't play so badly but similar to Tiger in round 1, he did not score anywhere near as well as his tee to green game dictated he should have. I have highlighted a few times in recent weeks how well Dufner is striking the ball - 25th driving distance, 3rd in driving accuracy and 12th in greens hit last week does nothing to dampen that view. 12th in greens hit is his fisst time outside the top 10 in that category in 4 events, by the way. The final positive is Dufner and Pete Dye designs. 5th and 2nd in the last 2 years in the US PGA Championship have both been achieved on Pete Dye designs. A great scrambler which contributes to his place in the top 10 for bogey avoidance, I can find very few negatives for Dufner this week. Sure, he is not the best putter in the field, but this is not the week where the best putter is the pre-requisite for victory. Expect Dufner to be very close to the head of the field yet again. I tipped Dufner early at 40/1, which is a brilliant price. He is 30s already less than a day later. I still think you need him on side.
Rory McIlroy - Rory lost a play-off in this event along with Bubba in 2010. Finally, he is coming back to form. I am most encouraged by the amount of work Rory put in after the British Open. Whatever the reason (and most have an opinion) for his relative slump, there are signs he is coming back. This course is often generous from the tee, which is right how McIlroy likes it. When winning the US Open last year, McIlroy was able to unleash his driver and dial in his irons to stunning effect in going away from the field. It would not surprise me at all were he to do just that again this week. There may be some luck in avoiding the worst of the conditions this week, but McIlroy has been able to dominate a Masters field for 3 days, a British Open field for a day (arguably 3 days after a second round 80 did not deter him from finishing 3rd) and a US Open fielld for 4 days. He arguably should have won this event in 2010 also, but I think he could have a great chance this week, especially as the course gets damper and hence longer. I am going win only here. Rory is one of the few to truly believe can win, but also can not be trusted fully yet to fire. the last time I did this, I watched Bill Haas hole a monster in a play-off and deny Phil. Still, win only feels the right play to me.
I am struggling with my final selection. The whole world seems to be on Dustin Johnson and I entirely understand the rationalé for him this week. However, I do not think he was favourite over Bubba and Dufner at all and the continued adoration for him as he moves in to clear 4th favouritism frankly baffles me. He can win, but like Scott last week, he is terribly priced to do so. Justin Rose is a bit of a photo-fit for this event in many ways and can make a strong challenge this week. However, I feel the lengthening of the course may just take this almost literally out of reach for him.
I like Piercy, but the value has been long since taken on him. Similarly, Garrigus is now too tight to back. Bill Haas is sneaking back in to some form and holds some appeal, as does Schwartzel. I actually like Els, not just because he has a 4th major story of the year where he to challenge (the Masters story was the will they invite or won't they saga that preceded the event - they didn't). the likes of Goosen and Leishman can also tough it out if the going gets a little tougher. Leishman ticks the box for having won this year also. Bo Van Pelt again tempts me and 66/1 is good enough here. I picked him last week and he did nothing to discourage. He is in the top 20 for my recent driving distance and driving accuracy stats and 9th in my recent GIR rankings. Make sure you take the 6 places, as Bo is great at finding that 6th-10th range. I expect he will go well again.
I am also going to play one more guy. Martin Laird has had a fairly quiet time of things this year, but is starting to play better again. I think the fact the course is lengthening works in Laird's favour, as does the fact that there are a number of holes with generous landing areas. Laird is a massive price at 125/1 on a course where I believe only a few will be able to prevail if it plays really long. Laird is one of those guys
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
Golf tips - US PGA Championship hole by hole review
US PGA Outright selections http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/08/golf-tips-us-pga-championship-outright.html
Hi all.
In competitive terms, Kiawah is very lightly raced. In professional golf on the men's tour, we only have the 1991 Ryder Cup, the 1997 and 2003 WGC World Cup and 2007 Senior PGA Championship to give us any guide in terms of demonstrable tournament form. Kiawah is a pretty unique test. Dubbed the War on the Shore in 1991, significant changes have been made to try and give players more of a fair test should the wind blow next week. Make no mistake - if the wind blows, this will test players to the full.
The difficulty or otherwise of the holes on the course will depend largely upon wind strength and direction. Colin Montgormerie won the individual award during the 1997 World Cup in benign conditions, but only 6 players were under par in 2007 after a brutal opening day. In the Ryder Cup of 1991, players were hitting as much as 3W in to the par 3 17th, a hole that earlier in the event had been attacked with short irons.
The crocs around here are the very least of the players' concern. My hole guide then will mention a little about "if the wind blows" but not much. The long range weather forecast is not so bad to date, but we all know that long range weather forecasts are sometimes less than perfect.
Hole 1
396 yards: Par 4
This hole should offer plenty of birdie opportunities during the week. The hole really is all about the drive. Although quite a tight fairway, a good drive will leave players a short iron to a fairly receptive green. Betfair traders may look to get players onside who find the short stuff from the tee, with a potential trade 25 minutes later after the par 5 2nd is completed.
Hole 2
557 yards: Par 5
Following the relatively easy 1st, players next have a shortish par 5 to attack. Longer hitters who can shape their ball right to left from the tee will have a makeable second shot to the green, if wind allows. Going left off the tee is not an option, with wasteland running down the left. Right is not good either, although the effect is that the hole becomes a 3 shot hole more than it makes the hole treacherous to par. The hole has additional complexity in that two areas of marshland run across the course. Poor/short tee shots may necessitate a lay up between the two marshland areas, which really makes it difficult to attack the pin if tucked away on the right of a narrow green. Bogey is possible if players are too greedy and overshoot on their 3rd shot. Players, if unable to reach in two, will hope to get close to the large sanded area short of the green to leave a shot wedge to the pin.
Players chasing on the final day will be looking to start hot on the final day; it gets much tougher as the holes go on.
Hole 3
390 yards: Par 4
The shortest par 4 on the course next, which again offers potential birdie opportunities. The tee shot is generous too, and players have a wide landing area, leaving a likely wedge to the tee. However, with the green sloping away on all sides and elevated, the short 2nd shot will leave players looking rather foolish and frustrated if they run off the green and fail to get up and down. Players again will benefit from a right to left shot shape from the tee, leaving them on the left side of the fairway and able to attack the pin from the best angle.
If looking to back players on betfair for quick profits, now may be a good time to assess your options. The next hole is tough.
Hole 4
458 yards: Par 4
I have said it on the previous two holes, but again a right to left shape is desired from the tee to leave the ball residing on the left portion of the fairway. Bubba any one? Phil? This is a tough hole and, in to a wind, the drive will dictate whether a player can even reach in 2, never mind attack the pin. Expect to see some players opting to trust their ability to get up and down after the second shot. The landing area is wide from the tee, but marshland can interfere with the drive if not straight.
A slightly elevated shot, with 4 waste areas surrounding the green makes the 2nd shot tough if a long iron is required. Expect some big scores on this hole.
Hole 5
188 yards: Par 3
A short par 3, which can really be a difficult proposition if affected by wind. Missing the green is not a great option, so players will be tempted to play towards the safer portion of the green if the wind blows, at which point the huge ridge in the middle of the green comes in to play. The hole plays at its most difficult when the pin is over sand on the left of the greeen. Missing the green right or even making the green right and below the ridge makes a 2-putt far from a gimme. Again, a right to left tendency may offer some benefits here as will a high ball flight if the pin is cut left.
Hole 6
480 yards: Par 4
Again, a right to left shot shape is desired from the tee here as players can open up the approach to the green if in the left portion of the fairway. Players who can not shape the ball here may find their tee ball leaking right and in to the rough, which makes the second shot more challenging. The main danger in approaching the green is the sand to the left of the hole. Also, long putts are best avoided here in a difficult, undulating green.
Hole 7
579 yards: Par 5
This hole will yield plenty of putts at eagle over the week provided the wind is not harshly against golfers. A left to right tee shot is probably of most help, particularly with a prevailing wind. However, the tee shot should not cause too many problems for players this week. The second shot plays in to a narrowing fairway and green, but after a good drive, players will be eyeing a minimum of birdie on this hole. Players must not miss the hole left with their second approach.
Hole 8
198 yard: Par 3
The difficulty of this hole will be determined by the wind. The green narrows at the back and long is not an option, which means that the centre of the green is always a sound option, particularly when the pin is cut at the back of the green. With a prevailing wind, players will find difficulty in being long enough to get on to an elevated green, while ensuring they do not over hit to sand at the back of the green.
Hole 9
494 yards: Par 4
Another nice hole for players who have an affinity for Augusta, players able to shape the ball from right to left with both their tee shot and approach shot have best chance of threatening the pin on this hole. Danger lurks too far left from the tee and a ball drifting right will make the second shot long and possible too long in to the wind for some. Players will want to clear the ridge in the middle of the green for shots to the left portion of the green ad this will leave a difficult, uphill 2-putt.
Hole 10
447 yards: Par 4
Long, confident drivers, in conditions where the wind is not against have the opportunity to take this hole apart. For most, however, a safe mid/left side of a fairway drive will leave a tricky shot to the green. the further left the tee shot, the narrower the approach. For this reason, a right to left shape is again beneficial for irons in to the green. Players playing over the bunker halfway down this hole will be faced with a narrowing, but makeable drive, after which a short iron or wedge to an open green leaves a great chance to make 3.
Hole 11
593 yards: Par 5
Betfair backers may be awakened by the prospect of backing players starting on 10 as well as 1. Depending on the wind and following the relatively easy 10th hole, this hole offers more birdie and potentially even eagle opportunities. The hole actually favours a left to right drive and right to left approach if going for the green in two. However, a player simply needs to fir the brief of finding the fairway from the tee in what is a relatively forgiving landing area. Golfers looking to go for the green in two will have bunkers between them and the hole 40 yards short and a little further on and to the left of the hole. In addition, a bunker right and just before the green awaits golfers who try to bring the ball right to left who do not quite get enough turn on their golf ball.
In many ways, this could become a tortoise and hare type hole, with great wedge players such as Donald and Stricker avoiding trouble and leaving makeable birdie putts, while longer players potentially find trouble in their approaches. This should prove a really good and potentially pivotal hole through the week. It is easy to visualise a great shot on the green in two being a significant moment on Sunday.
Hole 12
412 yards: Par 4
Anybody who chose a back to lay strategy on Betfair may want to get out now if the aim is short-term profit. This hole will prove tough to birdie, although missing par will frustrate golfers too. The fairway is generous enough for golfers to be confident of finding the fairway although deep sand left and rough and even water if right will punish the errant.
The 2nd shot is the main challenge on the this hole. A downhill approach to a green with elevation at the front makes it difficult to land the ball short and run on to the green. Also, due to the downhill nature of the hole, it will be easy enough fore golfers to go long, which will make par trickier.
Hole 13
497 yards: Par 4
Less than confident drivers may find severe difficulty on this hole. Drivers going long off the tee have a canal to contend with all the way down the right of the hole. Players going left from the tee - too far left - will find themselves in a nasty bunker and much too far away to make the green. The canal is a feature of the hole all the way down the right of the hole. Any semblance of wind on this hole will make this hole a potentially brutal test. In approaching the green, players nervous of the canal on the right bring sand to the left of the hole in to play also. This is a tough hole, unless you hit it straight. Two good, straight blows, will make golfers wonder what all the fuss is about, but that is easier said than done.
Hole 14
238 yards: Par 3
Suddenly the course heads for home along the coast. Coast = potential for greater winds and potentially a huge variation in potential club selections. Players may choose conservative front right approach to this green as this really is the only reasonable place to miss the green. This hole can ruin the scorecard of players who push left off the tee. The green itself is not so challenging and any player finding the putting surface can be confident of a solid two putt.
Hole 15
444 yards: Par 4
The 15th represents the start of a 4 hole implosion from Calcavecchia in the 1991 Ryder Cup which allowed Colin Montgomerie to recover from 4 down, halve the match and almost help rescue the Ryder Cup for Europe. The wind made it a nightmare stretch that day, which made conditions almost impossible. Pete Dye has since made the course apparently more accessible should similar conditions ensue, but that is a relative statement.
In mild conditions, this hole may yield plenty of birdie opportunities as a good drive will set up a shortish iron in to what is a none too difficult to hit green. There is trouble left, long right and to the back of the hole, but players in fair conditions should handle this hole fairly comfortably.
Hole 16
581 yards: Par 5
This hole is likely to play as a genuine 3 shot approach hole, unless players get help with a prevailing wind. The tee shot is easy enough; over a pond and to a generous enough fairway. The second shot leaves a decision for golfers as the green kinks right and narrows before opening up to the left for an approach to the green. Players carrying the sand on the right with their second will be rewarded with a wedge in to an open green. Players who have to play their shot shorter and left will face a tough time getting their third shot close.
Hole 17
223 yards: Par 3
An easy enough par 3 next. Well, maybe not quite so. I mentioned Monty winning 4 straight to halve in 1991. Well, he played his shot in to the water here before his opponent shanked his shot horribly in to the water and lost the hole after him. This is one of the scariest shots in golf and any player holding a slender 1 shot lead on Sunday will be tested fully with this tee shot. If the wind blows, good luck. Wind will dictate whether this is a 3 wood, 8 iron or somewhere in between. Shorter players may even choose to bail left and short. Or at least try to. A player finding the surface to hold their position on 17 will have earned their chance to win on 17.
Hole 18
501 yards: Par 4
18 is another extremely tough proposition. Players can not miss right and this tee shot very much favours a left to right tee shot which be sent out left and away from trouble. However, unless down the right of the fairway, players probably face a right to left approach as their best shot shape in to the green. The second shot is likely uphill, but the green itself is relatively welcoming. Wind may prove this hole's greatest ally and can make for a brutally long test, with constant trouble for those errant off the tee.
In summary, a lot of holes seem to favour a right to left shot, but the first brief here will be to stay in play. At 7,600 yards+, players can not afford to be overly conservative this week. Fans of Tiger should note his caution off the tee at the open recently. Some holes necessitate driver and most will clearly yield better scores more often if attacked. If the wind does blow and if the weather is indifferent (initial forecasts are varied from what I have seen), level par will be a good score. Look for players this week who are confident to put the ball out there from the tee with control.
I made a mistake in the British Open (as did many) in backing players with the expectation of adverse conditions. Whether that pays or not here is yet to be seen, but either way, good tee to green players are essential here.
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
Hi all.
In competitive terms, Kiawah is very lightly raced. In professional golf on the men's tour, we only have the 1991 Ryder Cup, the 1997 and 2003 WGC World Cup and 2007 Senior PGA Championship to give us any guide in terms of demonstrable tournament form. Kiawah is a pretty unique test. Dubbed the War on the Shore in 1991, significant changes have been made to try and give players more of a fair test should the wind blow next week. Make no mistake - if the wind blows, this will test players to the full.
The difficulty or otherwise of the holes on the course will depend largely upon wind strength and direction. Colin Montgormerie won the individual award during the 1997 World Cup in benign conditions, but only 6 players were under par in 2007 after a brutal opening day. In the Ryder Cup of 1991, players were hitting as much as 3W in to the par 3 17th, a hole that earlier in the event had been attacked with short irons.
The crocs around here are the very least of the players' concern. My hole guide then will mention a little about "if the wind blows" but not much. The long range weather forecast is not so bad to date, but we all know that long range weather forecasts are sometimes less than perfect.
Hole 1
396 yards: Par 4
This hole should offer plenty of birdie opportunities during the week. The hole really is all about the drive. Although quite a tight fairway, a good drive will leave players a short iron to a fairly receptive green. Betfair traders may look to get players onside who find the short stuff from the tee, with a potential trade 25 minutes later after the par 5 2nd is completed.
Hole 2
557 yards: Par 5
Following the relatively easy 1st, players next have a shortish par 5 to attack. Longer hitters who can shape their ball right to left from the tee will have a makeable second shot to the green, if wind allows. Going left off the tee is not an option, with wasteland running down the left. Right is not good either, although the effect is that the hole becomes a 3 shot hole more than it makes the hole treacherous to par. The hole has additional complexity in that two areas of marshland run across the course. Poor/short tee shots may necessitate a lay up between the two marshland areas, which really makes it difficult to attack the pin if tucked away on the right of a narrow green. Bogey is possible if players are too greedy and overshoot on their 3rd shot. Players, if unable to reach in two, will hope to get close to the large sanded area short of the green to leave a shot wedge to the pin.
Players chasing on the final day will be looking to start hot on the final day; it gets much tougher as the holes go on.
Hole 3
390 yards: Par 4
The shortest par 4 on the course next, which again offers potential birdie opportunities. The tee shot is generous too, and players have a wide landing area, leaving a likely wedge to the tee. However, with the green sloping away on all sides and elevated, the short 2nd shot will leave players looking rather foolish and frustrated if they run off the green and fail to get up and down. Players again will benefit from a right to left shot shape from the tee, leaving them on the left side of the fairway and able to attack the pin from the best angle.
If looking to back players on betfair for quick profits, now may be a good time to assess your options. The next hole is tough.
Hole 4
458 yards: Par 4
I have said it on the previous two holes, but again a right to left shape is desired from the tee to leave the ball residing on the left portion of the fairway. Bubba any one? Phil? This is a tough hole and, in to a wind, the drive will dictate whether a player can even reach in 2, never mind attack the pin. Expect to see some players opting to trust their ability to get up and down after the second shot. The landing area is wide from the tee, but marshland can interfere with the drive if not straight.
A slightly elevated shot, with 4 waste areas surrounding the green makes the 2nd shot tough if a long iron is required. Expect some big scores on this hole.
Hole 5
188 yards: Par 3
A short par 3, which can really be a difficult proposition if affected by wind. Missing the green is not a great option, so players will be tempted to play towards the safer portion of the green if the wind blows, at which point the huge ridge in the middle of the green comes in to play. The hole plays at its most difficult when the pin is over sand on the left of the greeen. Missing the green right or even making the green right and below the ridge makes a 2-putt far from a gimme. Again, a right to left tendency may offer some benefits here as will a high ball flight if the pin is cut left.
Hole 6
480 yards: Par 4
Again, a right to left shot shape is desired from the tee here as players can open up the approach to the green if in the left portion of the fairway. Players who can not shape the ball here may find their tee ball leaking right and in to the rough, which makes the second shot more challenging. The main danger in approaching the green is the sand to the left of the hole. Also, long putts are best avoided here in a difficult, undulating green.
Hole 7
579 yards: Par 5
This hole will yield plenty of putts at eagle over the week provided the wind is not harshly against golfers. A left to right tee shot is probably of most help, particularly with a prevailing wind. However, the tee shot should not cause too many problems for players this week. The second shot plays in to a narrowing fairway and green, but after a good drive, players will be eyeing a minimum of birdie on this hole. Players must not miss the hole left with their second approach.
Hole 8
198 yard: Par 3
The difficulty of this hole will be determined by the wind. The green narrows at the back and long is not an option, which means that the centre of the green is always a sound option, particularly when the pin is cut at the back of the green. With a prevailing wind, players will find difficulty in being long enough to get on to an elevated green, while ensuring they do not over hit to sand at the back of the green.
Hole 9
494 yards: Par 4
Another nice hole for players who have an affinity for Augusta, players able to shape the ball from right to left with both their tee shot and approach shot have best chance of threatening the pin on this hole. Danger lurks too far left from the tee and a ball drifting right will make the second shot long and possible too long in to the wind for some. Players will want to clear the ridge in the middle of the green for shots to the left portion of the green ad this will leave a difficult, uphill 2-putt.
Hole 10
447 yards: Par 4
Long, confident drivers, in conditions where the wind is not against have the opportunity to take this hole apart. For most, however, a safe mid/left side of a fairway drive will leave a tricky shot to the green. the further left the tee shot, the narrower the approach. For this reason, a right to left shape is again beneficial for irons in to the green. Players playing over the bunker halfway down this hole will be faced with a narrowing, but makeable drive, after which a short iron or wedge to an open green leaves a great chance to make 3.
Hole 11
593 yards: Par 5
Betfair backers may be awakened by the prospect of backing players starting on 10 as well as 1. Depending on the wind and following the relatively easy 10th hole, this hole offers more birdie and potentially even eagle opportunities. The hole actually favours a left to right drive and right to left approach if going for the green in two. However, a player simply needs to fir the brief of finding the fairway from the tee in what is a relatively forgiving landing area. Golfers looking to go for the green in two will have bunkers between them and the hole 40 yards short and a little further on and to the left of the hole. In addition, a bunker right and just before the green awaits golfers who try to bring the ball right to left who do not quite get enough turn on their golf ball.
In many ways, this could become a tortoise and hare type hole, with great wedge players such as Donald and Stricker avoiding trouble and leaving makeable birdie putts, while longer players potentially find trouble in their approaches. This should prove a really good and potentially pivotal hole through the week. It is easy to visualise a great shot on the green in two being a significant moment on Sunday.
Hole 12
412 yards: Par 4
Anybody who chose a back to lay strategy on Betfair may want to get out now if the aim is short-term profit. This hole will prove tough to birdie, although missing par will frustrate golfers too. The fairway is generous enough for golfers to be confident of finding the fairway although deep sand left and rough and even water if right will punish the errant.
The 2nd shot is the main challenge on the this hole. A downhill approach to a green with elevation at the front makes it difficult to land the ball short and run on to the green. Also, due to the downhill nature of the hole, it will be easy enough fore golfers to go long, which will make par trickier.
Hole 13
497 yards: Par 4
Less than confident drivers may find severe difficulty on this hole. Drivers going long off the tee have a canal to contend with all the way down the right of the hole. Players going left from the tee - too far left - will find themselves in a nasty bunker and much too far away to make the green. The canal is a feature of the hole all the way down the right of the hole. Any semblance of wind on this hole will make this hole a potentially brutal test. In approaching the green, players nervous of the canal on the right bring sand to the left of the hole in to play also. This is a tough hole, unless you hit it straight. Two good, straight blows, will make golfers wonder what all the fuss is about, but that is easier said than done.
Hole 14
238 yards: Par 3
Suddenly the course heads for home along the coast. Coast = potential for greater winds and potentially a huge variation in potential club selections. Players may choose conservative front right approach to this green as this really is the only reasonable place to miss the green. This hole can ruin the scorecard of players who push left off the tee. The green itself is not so challenging and any player finding the putting surface can be confident of a solid two putt.
Hole 15
444 yards: Par 4
The 15th represents the start of a 4 hole implosion from Calcavecchia in the 1991 Ryder Cup which allowed Colin Montgomerie to recover from 4 down, halve the match and almost help rescue the Ryder Cup for Europe. The wind made it a nightmare stretch that day, which made conditions almost impossible. Pete Dye has since made the course apparently more accessible should similar conditions ensue, but that is a relative statement.
In mild conditions, this hole may yield plenty of birdie opportunities as a good drive will set up a shortish iron in to what is a none too difficult to hit green. There is trouble left, long right and to the back of the hole, but players in fair conditions should handle this hole fairly comfortably.
Hole 16
581 yards: Par 5
This hole is likely to play as a genuine 3 shot approach hole, unless players get help with a prevailing wind. The tee shot is easy enough; over a pond and to a generous enough fairway. The second shot leaves a decision for golfers as the green kinks right and narrows before opening up to the left for an approach to the green. Players carrying the sand on the right with their second will be rewarded with a wedge in to an open green. Players who have to play their shot shorter and left will face a tough time getting their third shot close.
Hole 17
223 yards: Par 3
An easy enough par 3 next. Well, maybe not quite so. I mentioned Monty winning 4 straight to halve in 1991. Well, he played his shot in to the water here before his opponent shanked his shot horribly in to the water and lost the hole after him. This is one of the scariest shots in golf and any player holding a slender 1 shot lead on Sunday will be tested fully with this tee shot. If the wind blows, good luck. Wind will dictate whether this is a 3 wood, 8 iron or somewhere in between. Shorter players may even choose to bail left and short. Or at least try to. A player finding the surface to hold their position on 17 will have earned their chance to win on 17.
Hole 18
501 yards: Par 4
18 is another extremely tough proposition. Players can not miss right and this tee shot very much favours a left to right tee shot which be sent out left and away from trouble. However, unless down the right of the fairway, players probably face a right to left approach as their best shot shape in to the green. The second shot is likely uphill, but the green itself is relatively welcoming. Wind may prove this hole's greatest ally and can make for a brutally long test, with constant trouble for those errant off the tee.
In summary, a lot of holes seem to favour a right to left shot, but the first brief here will be to stay in play. At 7,600 yards+, players can not afford to be overly conservative this week. Fans of Tiger should note his caution off the tee at the open recently. Some holes necessitate driver and most will clearly yield better scores more often if attacked. If the wind does blow and if the weather is indifferent (initial forecasts are varied from what I have seen), level par will be a good score. Look for players this week who are confident to put the ball out there from the tee with control.
I made a mistake in the British Open (as did many) in backing players with the expectation of adverse conditions. Whether that pays or not here is yet to be seen, but either way, good tee to green players are essential here.
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
Thursday, 2 August 2012
OneBet Racing Selections - 2nd August
2nd August
Goodwood
14.15 - Opinion 10/1 - 1pt ew, OneBet Longshot - Hefner 20/1 - 1pt ew -4PTS
14.45 - Master of War 10/3 - 2pt Win -2PTS
15.15 - Saddlers Rock 15/8 - 3pt Win WON@2/1 +6PTS
15.45 - Midnight Soprano 8/1 - 2pt Win -2PTS
16.20 - Botanica 4/1 - 2pt Win -2PTS
16.55 - Dutch Rose 9/1 - 1pt ew -2PTS
17.20 - Marias Choice 16/1 - 1pt ew , Cresta Star 16/1 - 1pt ew -4PTS
Meeting Total:-10PTS
Goodwood
14.15 - Opinion 10/1 - 1pt ew, OneBet Longshot - Hefner 20/1 - 1pt ew -4PTS
14.45 - Master of War 10/3 - 2pt Win -2PTS
15.15 - Saddlers Rock 15/8 - 3pt Win WON@2/1 +6PTS
15.45 - Midnight Soprano 8/1 - 2pt Win -2PTS
16.20 - Botanica 4/1 - 2pt Win -2PTS
16.55 - Dutch Rose 9/1 - 1pt ew -2PTS
17.20 - Marias Choice 16/1 - 1pt ew , Cresta Star 16/1 - 1pt ew -4PTS
Meeting Total:-10PTS
Wednesday, 1 August 2012
Golf tips - Reno Tahoe Open and WGC Bridgestone outright selections
Reno Tahoe selections
1.5pts EW John Rollins at 28/1 (Coral)
1.5pts EW Pat Perez at 28/1 (Various)
1pt EW Vaughn Taylor at 66/1 (Various)
1pt EW Roland Thatcher at 100/1 (Various)
WGC Brigestone
1st round leader: 1pt EW Scott Piercy at 80/1 (Various)
1pt EW Lee Westwood at 20/1 (Various)
1pt EW Hunter Mahan at 25/1 (Various)
1pt EW Bo Van Pelt at 40/1 (Various)
1pt EW Jason Dufner at 30/1 (BetVictor)
Safe to say I am nervous about no Tiger in my WGC tips. However, I am willing to avoid a big bet on Woods at 5/1 - it is either that or a cover bet for a token 2pt win or so. I am not comvinced he is yet a 5/1 shot in this class of field, despite his winning 4 events since the end of last year on courses where he has previously thrived. It is no surprise to me if he does win, but betting is all about value. I'm not convinced.
Paddy Power and SkyBet offer a without Woods market. However, I am not going to put those tips up here, due to the lack of bookmakers offering this bet Tempting though. I have gone for good drivers who can dial in with irons and really like the fact that Westwood has drifted after a loss of form and faith in his irons at the British Open. The pressure is different here and he can make a big play for a first WGC title if he goes well this week. Hope he starts well and then does not go to sleep in rounds 2 and 3, as he has a few times in this event.
Hunter misfired badly last week, but this is a different kind of tournament.Van Pelt and Dufner have been fitting the brief most weeks. It is a different test here, but they should still feature
1.5pts EW John Rollins at 28/1 (Coral)
1.5pts EW Pat Perez at 28/1 (Various)
1pt EW Vaughn Taylor at 66/1 (Various)
1pt EW Roland Thatcher at 100/1 (Various)
WGC Brigestone
1st round leader: 1pt EW Scott Piercy at 80/1 (Various)
1pt EW Lee Westwood at 20/1 (Various)
1pt EW Hunter Mahan at 25/1 (Various)
1pt EW Bo Van Pelt at 40/1 (Various)
1pt EW Jason Dufner at 30/1 (BetVictor)
Safe to say I am nervous about no Tiger in my WGC tips. However, I am willing to avoid a big bet on Woods at 5/1 - it is either that or a cover bet for a token 2pt win or so. I am not comvinced he is yet a 5/1 shot in this class of field, despite his winning 4 events since the end of last year on courses where he has previously thrived. It is no surprise to me if he does win, but betting is all about value. I'm not convinced.
Paddy Power and SkyBet offer a without Woods market. However, I am not going to put those tips up here, due to the lack of bookmakers offering this bet Tempting though. I have gone for good drivers who can dial in with irons and really like the fact that Westwood has drifted after a loss of form and faith in his irons at the British Open. The pressure is different here and he can make a big play for a first WGC title if he goes well this week. Hope he starts well and then does not go to sleep in rounds 2 and 3, as he has a few times in this event.
Hunter misfired badly last week, but this is a different kind of tournament.Van Pelt and Dufner have been fitting the brief most weeks. It is a different test here, but they should still feature
OneBet Racing Selections - 1st August
1st August
Goodwood
14.00 - Cape Express 13/2 - 2pt Win -2PTS
14.35 - Olympic Glory 7/2 - 2pt Win +7PTS
15.10 - Frankel - Win No Bet
15.45 - Scatter Dice 15/2 - 2pt Win -2PTS
16.20 - Pearl Sea 2/1 - 3pt Win WON +6PTS, OneBet Longshot - Arbah 22/1 1pt ew -2PTS
16.55 - Keene Dancer 9/2 2pt Win -2PTS
17.30 - Dubawi Dancer NAP 2/1 - 3pt Win -3PTS
Meeting Total: +2PTS
Goodwood
14.00 - Cape Express 13/2 - 2pt Win -2PTS
14.35 - Olympic Glory 7/2 - 2pt Win +7PTS
15.10 - Frankel - Win No Bet
15.45 - Scatter Dice 15/2 - 2pt Win -2PTS
16.20 - Pearl Sea 2/1 - 3pt Win WON +6PTS, OneBet Longshot - Arbah 22/1 1pt ew -2PTS
16.55 - Keene Dancer 9/2 2pt Win -2PTS
17.30 - Dubawi Dancer NAP 2/1 - 3pt Win -3PTS
Meeting Total: +2PTS
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