OneBet Racing Selections - 2nd June

2nd June

Epsom
13.35 Wrotham Heath 7/1 - 1pt Win WON+7PTS
14.05 Euxton Hall - 7/4 NAP - 3PT Win LOST -3PTS
14.40 St Nicholas Abbey 4/6 WON Win (Included in Tasty Treble)
15.15 Long Awaited 16/1 - 1pt ew LOST -2PTS
16.00 Camelot No Lose Bet 1/2 Ladbrokes - 4Pt Win +2.46 PTS , Main Sequence 10/1 - 1pt ew 2nd +1.5PTS
16.50 Communicator 4/1 -2pt Win -2PTS
17.25 Baldemar 6/1 -1pt Win 3rd -1PT

Meeting Total: +4.5PTS


Cartmel
18.15 Samstown 3/1 - 2pt Win LOST -2PTS
18.45 Bollin Fiona 8/1 - 1pt Win NR Replaced by Realignment 7/1 - 1pt Win LOST -1PT
19.15 Shulmin 12/1 1pt e/w, Rawaaj 5/1 1pt Win LOST -3PTS
19.45 Hathamore 14/1 - 1pt ew WON +16.5PTS
20.20 Kai Broon 7/2 - 2pt Win LOST - 2PTS
20.50 Sud Pacifique NAP - 13/8 3pt Win WON +4.875PTS
21.20 Front Rank 13/2 -1pt Win LOST -1PT

Meeting Total:+12.375
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Tasty Treble: CamelotWON, St Nicholas Abbey WON, Communicator LOST11.5/1 - 1pt Win LOST -1PT


Daily Total: +11.375PTS

Golf tips - summary of selections for Wales open and Memorial

Hi,

I advised the following selections on Twitter whilst on holiday. For referencing purposes, I am going to summarise here on the blog. It may be that I choose to add some midpoint selections, so it is important to consider any current bets if indeed you have followed me this week

Wales Open outright selections
1pt EW Alex Noren at 18/1
1pt EW Thorbjorn Olesen at 50/1
1pt EW Marcel Siem at 28/1
1pt EW JM Singh 1st rd leader at 66/1

Memorial Tournament
1pt EW Justin Rose at 18/1
1pt EW Jonathan Byrd at 55/1
1pt EW Mark Wilson at 125/1

Regards

DAVE (OneBet)


- Posted using BlogPress from my iPad

Golf Tips - Memorial Tournament Course form

Hi all

I have the briefest of time before my holiday, so no hint at anything professional.  Below is the course form for this week's event at Muirfield Ohio.  The table is produced in the same way as previous, namely

My course analysis goes back to 2001 and I analyse in the following way:

• Tournament experience, with a maximum 8 points if a player has played 6 or more times
• Tournament history, with a maximum 10 points if a player has ever won the event, with further increments down to down to 2 points for any top 25.  
• Tournament form in 2012, 2011 and 2010, with up to 4 points available for each year.  
• Course experience points - As per tournament form, but for the specific course in use.  In reality, this is not a factor here as Muirfield host course in this period with exception of 2007, when 3 courses were used including Muirfield.  

As we are looking at course form in years gone by, not all in the field make the list due to 2012 being their debut year.  The final field is subject to potential change, so I have included the alternates for the event in the list also.  

So, looking purely at course and history form, with a ranking system that aims to differentiate between players who do consistently well and those who don't (either one hit wonders or those consistent performers who do not really challenge), we get the following results (Choi won in the 3 course format of 2007, so be wary of thinking him irresistible this week:

Rank	Name	Apps since '01
1	Steve Stricker	5
1	Tiger Woods	8
3	Jim Furyk	10
4	Justin Rose	7
4	K.J. Choi	11
4	Stewart Cink	11
7	Jonathan Byrd	9
8	Bo Van Pelt	8
8	Ryan Moore	6
10	Ernie Els	11
10	Mark Wilson	5
12	Davis Love III	8
12	Dustin Johnson	4
12	Phil Mickelson	5
15	Carl Pettersson	8
16	Mike Weir	10
17	Jerry Kelly	11
17	Sean O'Hair	6
19	Rory McIlroy	2
20	Adam Scott	6
20	Rickie Fowler	2
20	Ricky Barnes	2
20	Rod Pampling	10
24	Luke Donald	6
25	Brandt Jobe	3
25	Fred Couples	7
27	Ben Curtis	9
27	Vijay Singh	10
29	Geoff Ogilvy	10
29	John Senden	5
31	Bubba Watson	6
31	Hunter Mahan	5
31	Pat Perez	8
31	Steve Marino	5
35	Kevin Streelman	3
36	Aaron Baddeley	9
36	Chris DiMarco	8
36	Lucas Glover	6
36	Robert Allenby	9
36	Rory Sabbatini	6
36	Stuart Appleby	11
36	Trevor Immelman	8
43	Charl Schwartzel	4
43	D.A. Points	3
43	J.B. Holmes	6
43	Jeff Overton	4
43	Nick O'Hern	5
43	Ryuji Imada	5
49	Webb Simpson	3
50	Billy Mayfair	9
50	Brian Davis	4
50	Bryce Molder	3
50	Camilo Villegas	5
50	John Mallinger	4
50	Kevin Stadler	4
50	Nick Watney	4
57	Y.E. Yang	4
58	Gary Woodland	1
59	Angel Cabrera	2
59	Bill Haas	6
59	Brendon de Jonge	2
59	Greg Owen	4
59	Paul Casey	4
59	Troy Matteson	4
65	Ben Crane	3
65	Charley Hoffman	5
65	Greg Chalmers	3
65	Heath Slocum	3
65	Jason Day	3
70	Andres Romero	1
70	Brandt Snedeker	4
70	Briny Baird	4
70	George McNeill	4
70	Kevin Na	3
70	Scott Stallings	1
76	Blake Adams	2
76	Boo Weekley	3
76	Chris Couch	3
76	Erik Compton	3
76	James Driscoll	3
76	Johnson Wagner	3
76	Ken Duke	3
76	Marc Leishman	3
76	Robert Garrigus	3
76	Spencer Levin	2
86	Henrik Stenson	2
86	Jimmy Walker	2
86	Josh Teater	2
86	Kris Blanks	2
86	Seung-Yul Noh	2
86	Tom Gillis	2
92	Kyle Stanley	1
93	Brendan Steele	1
93	Cameron Tringale	1
93	Charlie Wi	1
93	Chris Kirk	1
93	Chris Stroud	1
93	Colt Knost	1
93	Daniel Summerhays	1
93	Graham DeLaet	1
93	Jhonattan Vegas	1
93	Keegan Bradley	1
93	Kyle Reifers	1
93	Scott Piercy	1
93	Tommy Gainey	1

Regards

Dave (OneBet)

OneBet Racing Selections - 27th May

27th May

Kelso
14.15 Makbullet 2nd
2.45 Endeavor 12/1 - 1pt e/w  LOST-2PTS
15.20 Crowning Jewel WON
15.50 Rockabilly 11/2 - 1pt Win, Inverlocy Lad 10/1 - 1pt e/w LOST -3PTS
16.25 Rupert Bear 4/1 - 2pt Win NR


Meeting Total:-5PTS


Fakenham
14.25 Medic Man 10/3 -2pt Win 2nd -2PTS
14.55 Phonenix Des Mottes - 17/2 1pt ew -2PTS
16.05 Art History  2nd
17.10 Back on Tow 6/1 -1pt Win 2nd -1PT


Meeeting Total: -5PTS


Tasty Treble: Crowning Jewel, Makbullet, Art History 5/1 - 2pt Win LOST -2PTS


Daily Total -7PTS

OneBet Racing Selections - 23rd May

23rd May


Worcester
17.50 Baddam 10/3 - 2pt Win - (OneBet Longshot - Classic Rock 40/1 0.5Pts ew) LOST -3PTS
18.20 Francesca 4/1 - 2pt Win LOST -2PTS
18.50 Up to the Mark 14/1 - 1pt ew LOST -2PTS
19.20 Hinton Pilot 4/1 - 2pt Win LOST -2PTS
19.50 Its Oscar 15/8 NB - 3pt Win LOST -3PTS
20.20 Presenting Ace 7/2 - 2pt Win -2PTS
20.50 Themanfromfraam 9/2 - 2pt Win WON+9 PTS

Meeting Total: -5PTS




Darren
OneBet

Golf Tips - BMW PGA Championship outright selections

Outright selections
1.5pts EW Justin Rose at 22/1 (Bet365, Betfred both 6 places) Result : EW Profit 7.25pts
1pt EW Matteo Manassero at 33/1 (Various) Loss 2pts
1pt EW Francesco Molinari at 35/1 (Bodog, 33/1 various) Loss 2pts
0.5pts EW Victor Dubuisson at 100/1 (Various, but take 6 places) Loss 1pt
0.5pts EW Stephen Gallacher at 200/1 (Various, but take 6 places) Loss 1pt
0.5pts EW Richie Ramsay at 125/1 (Betfred, Totesport) Loss 1pt

Overall profit : +0.25pts

Golf Tips - Crowne Plaza Invitational Outright selections

Outright selections
2pts EW Rickie Fowler at 16/1 (Various, but take Bodog's 6 places) Loss 4 pts
1pt EW John Senden at 50/1 (Bet365, Skybet) Loss 2pts
1.5pts EW David Toms at 28/1 (Various) Loss 3pts
1pt Pat Perez to place at 14/1 (Paddy Power, William Hill) Loss 1pt

Total loss : 10 points

Crowne Plaza player form http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/golf-tips-crowne-plaza-player-form.html
Crowne Plaza course form http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/golf-tips-crowne-plaza-course-form.html

Guide
The PGA tour once again heads to Colonial this week for the Crowne Plaza Invitational.  David Toms is back this week to defend the title he eventually won narrowly last year.  A good field assembles here too; at the head of the betting, we see FedEx cup leader and dual winner Jason Dufner only 4th favourite behind the joint market leaders Zach Johnson, Matt Kuchar and Rickie Fowler.

Colonial rewards accurate players who can get hot with the putter.  Bombers typically do not do so well, with the tree lined nature of the course more readily rewarding straighter hitters.  Last year, Martin Laird was the only player finishing in the top 15 to rank in the top 10 for driving distance.  David Toms won last year by finishing 7th in driving accuracy, 6th in greens hit and 1st in total putts.  6 of the top 9 from last year were in the top 20 for greens hit.  However, it was putting that really set the leaders apart from the rest, with the aforementioned Toms (1st in total putts ),Wi (3rd) and Van Pelt (2nd) highlighting that the very best putters this week will prosper.  I have heard some reports that perhaps the greens are not so fast this week, which may equalise the field a little if true come Thursday.

However, a look at the recent roll-call of winners demonstrates that experience is arguably the biggest pre-requisite around here.  Toms last succeeded the likes of Zach Johnson, Steve Stricker, Phil Mickelson, Tim Herron and Kenny Perry as winners of this event to have previously played the course on numerous occasions.  Indeed, one has to go back to Sergio in 2001 to find a player who bucks this trend.

At the time of writing, the biggest gambles this week have come on Zach Johnson, Bo Van Pelt and David Toms, with huge support for Harris English, who, aligned to a fine regular tour season, waltzed through Open qualifying, shooting 60/63 in the process.  English has the experience factor against him and I have to overlook him this week, at both the shortened price offered at time of writing (70s) and the opening price (100s).  I can only back players who have learned about the course previously and shown at least signs that they can master the course if on song this week.

A final note about the weather.  David Toms won with -15 last year, with -21 and -17 the winning score in the two years prior.  Toms actually led the field by 7 after round 2; successive 62s left Toms -16, demonstrating that this course can be a birdie fest for those who could keep themselves out of trouble consistently enough.  However, the weather looks to be a significant factor this week.  Winds are expected to reach 20kph for Thursday through Sunday, with only a slight abatement expected on Sunday.  If true, players will not be shooting -15 this year and a grittier approach may be required to prevail .

My selections
Having not published on Monday this week, I write having seen so many pundits tipping up Zach Johnson this week.  At no.1 in my course form guide above (link above) and 2nd at the Players last time out, it is clear to see why he is popular.  However, in this quality of field, I simply do not trust him enough at the price quoted.  Johnson thrives when the remit is accurate play, but I am not convinced he is putting well enough to be trusted at these prices.  29th in total putts when 2nd last time out is OK, but prior to that, Johnson was 87th on his last bentgrass appearance.  I also question how much I can trust Zach Johnson to remain consistent for one more week, as he hasn't stayed hot for long in the last couple of seasons.  Clearly, he loves the course, but is not for me this week.

Of the favourites, Rickie Fowler gets my vote this week.  Fowler has only played here twice, but arrives as the number one player in my form ranks (link above), having been 1st and 2nd in his last two events.  In progressive form here with 38th in 2010 and 16th last year, I expect a big performance from Fowler again this week.  If the winds do come this week as expected, there are none I favour more than Fowler here.  One of the World's finest ball strikers when on song, Fowler has been 15th, 8th and 2nd in his last 3 events for greens hit.  Also, his total driving has been amongst the best in the field in recent events.  Fowler is a class act who may be starting to get truly comfortable with that notion.  If his form continues in to this week, he has an outstanding chance.

David Toms also makes my team this week.  Toms shot the 60th best round on Saturday last year and almost threw the tournament away.  However, he shot the best round on Thursday and Friday, finishing with the 3rd best round on Sunday to edge the tournament.  Toms was sensational for 3 days and finished a full 5 shots clear of 3rd place.  Anything like that performance again this week will see Toms at least in the mix for a place.  The familiar Toms accuracy from the tee (4th driving accuracy) to green (6th in greens hit) returned at the Players.  If putting follows, Toms will go very close.

John Senden is worth a play here.  8th last year, Senden can obviously play the course.  At the Players, Senden led the field for greens hit and sat 13th in driving accuracy.  Only 121st in putting on the Bermudagrass of Sawgrass, Senden sat 34th the week before on bentgrass.  Winds will not overly upset Senden and I really believe he can make a run at the places here.

Finally, I think a 14/1 place only play on Pat Perez is outstanding value.  Prior to a 62nd here last year, Perez was 10th, 6th and 4th here.  Perez is in fine form of late, with only a less than stellar putting display keeping him from real contention last week.  Whilst a bentgrass failure last week causes some concern, I am well aware that a number of top players and putters suffered badly in the difficult conditions last week.  17th and 14th in total putts the 2 weeks before that, I am happy to believe Perez can putt well again here.  Aside from putting, Perez's ball striking is very good right now.  In the last two events Perez has been 26th and 31st for driving distance, but 21st and 28th for accuracy at the same time.  In addition, Perez has also been 28th and 16th in greens hit.  In short, Perez has everything required to get in the mix here provided he putts better.  I have gone place only as I do not see Perez winning, but he can certainly place here.

Regards

Dave (OneBet)