Golf tips - BMW Championship outright selections

BMW Championship Selections
1pt EW Louis Oosthuizen at 25/1 (Various)
2pt EW Jason Dufner at 25/1 (Various)
0.75pt EW Ryan Moore 1st round leader at 66/1 (Various)

Short weeks are not good fun when trying to pull these tips together..........

No point in writing a novel this week.  So, simply, we arrive at a course with precious little course form to go on.  The course is plenty long enough, but the interesting aspect for me is the relatively small greens here.  The rough does not seem to be the most penal, but ball strikers who can dial in with their approach shots are greatly desired this week.  Scrambling will be more of a factor this week, as players will be hitting plenty of long irons in to small targets and greens will inevitably be missed.

So, to my thoughts/selections

Rory is rejected for this reason.  Rory's last 5 wins have been followed by 103rd, 51st, 3rd, 35th and 26th after round 1 of the following tournament   3rd was in Dubai, an event he had to win to have a chance of catching Luke Donald in the race - he eventually finished 11th, his first non-top 6 in 5 events.  So, I personally am going to be brave and lay Rory on the exchanges and hope he meanders again on Thursday.  I also think the high drama of watching anxiously as Louis Oosthuizen just missed his putt to force a play-off may leave him slightly flat coming in here.  Finally, good scrambling and great putting stats last week compensated for a pretty average approach game (37th in GIR, 30th in proximity to the hole).  I am not convinced he will get away with less than perfect irons this week, although his high, long and towering irons will be well suited to this challenge if he is dialled in.

Tiger is interesting, because his form last week ticks boxes for my photo fit golfer this week.  4th in driving distance and a useful enough 20th in accuracy, 2nd in greens, 12th in strokes gained putting and 2nd in scrambling is highly compelling stuff from Tiger.  Tiger was also 19th in proximity to the hole last week, although approaches over 200 yards (62nd) and over 100 yards (28th) is not ideal for the lengthy Crooked Stick this week.  Tiger has gone toe to toe with Rory recently at the PGA and here and Rory has won both times.  However, Tiger was closing in last time out rather than seeing Rory waltz off in to the distance.  I am really struggling to leave Tiger alone, but just will, because I think the price is probably about fair.  My slight nagging doubt is that he was heavily involved in the late Monday finish and has not yet had two really dialled in weeks with his approach game all year.  After a top 10 GIR performance, he has been no better than 23rd the following week in that stat.  I just leave him here.

Tiger and Rory, when paired together at the Barclays, failed to really sparkle.  Reason if you are wavering to   exercise caution I feel.

Jason Dufner did not putt well enough to win last week and then did not avoid double and triple bogeys enough over the weekend to threaten a place (92nd in bogey avoidance last week).  But..........he was 5th in proximity to the hole, 5th in approaches over 200 yards and 11th in greens hit as well as 7th in scrambling.  So, hidden in among the headline stats is a player who should find he can fire at Crooked Stick.  Dufner is holding steady at 25s and is now joint 6th favourite.  It seems the market has lost faith in Dufner more than I have.  Sorry folks, but he makes my team again.

I have ignored my system for Rory and it is telling me that if not Rory, I should back Oosthuizen.  There is still some 25s out there and Louis was sensational approaching the green and in putting.  Louis showed when winning in Malaysia straight after the Masters that he can dust himself down and perform the following week.  Oosthuizen is a spells players, who gets hot for a time before then gently ebbing away from the sharp end.  So, I am going to back that the run continues.  In a 70 man field, several of whom will have a pressure to make the Tour Championship final event when it comes to the final round, Louis will be freer than most to just go for the prize.  Let's play him here.

My final play this week is on Ryan Moore.  In 2010, Moore dialled in for the FedExCup climax, lying 2nd after day 1 of this event and finishing 3rd, before following up with 9th at East Lake.  In 2011, Moore was 16th in this event, which was not quite enough to qualify for East Lake.  Moore sits 35th in the FedEx cup race and needs to follow up his strong 10th last week with another good display to make East Lake.  11th in GIR last week and 3rd in proximity to the hole, Moore's success or otherwise will depend on whether his scrambling can improve this week.  80/1 is a good price to find out whether he does or not.  My final question is whether outright or 1st round leader is the best way to go.  Since start 2010, he has had 8 top 5s.  In the same period 10 times top 5 after round 1, one of which (Well Fargo this year) was as 1st round leader.  Crooked Stick may be a little long for Moore over 4 days I fancy.  I am going to play him 1st round leader only here.

Regards

Dave (OneBet)