Golf Betting - RBC Heritage - Outright tips

Outright tips
2pts EW Jim Furyk at 20/1 (Various)
1.25pts EW Brian Davis at 50/1 (Various)
1pt EW Boo Weekley at 70/1 (Paddy Power, 66/1 various)
0.75pts EW Kris Blanks at 200/1 (Bet365, 150/1 various)

Heritage halfway tips http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/04/rbc-heritage-tips-midpoint-selections.html
Heritage recent form guide : http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/04/rbc-heritage-recent-form-guide.html

Tournament guide.  
After finally sorting out sponsorship issues, the Heritage at Harbour Town retains its place on the PGA tour calendar.  This is both good and bad for punters.  The good news is that we can look strongly at players with positive history here and, unless the credentials are impeccable, we can approach rookies with caution.  Also, we can look at some fairly well defined player characteristics in trying to settle upon our selections for this week.

The negative is that the layers know this.  I had a real struggle this week in picking players who are both likely to contend, but also who represent value at the prices offered.

Harbout Town is a par 71, measuring just under 7000 yards.  Bombers are not required here - only one of the top 25 last year ranked top 10 for driving distance.  Rather, the brief is accuracy.  The emphasis is on sound placement from the tee and excellent approach play to some of the smallest greens on tour.  Scrambling is a factor as a number of greens will be missed, but it is not the big factor.

I want players who can control the golf ball.  Forecasts look good for the week, but this coastal course will place even greater emphasis on control if winds pick up during the 4 days.

The selections
At the head of the market is Luke Donald, and rightly so.  In the last 3 years, Donald has been 2nd, 3rd and 2nd, with only a stunning final day charge from Brandt Snedeker last year denying him victory.  Donald also finished well at the Masters and seems sufficiently annoyed with himself at failing to challenge for victory last week to want to do well here.  At 7/1, Luke is really a win only price.  I can't trust him, despite his proven and new found ability to close out tournaments in the last year.  We correctly had Luke onside at 11/1 at the Transitions Championship.  At 11/1 on a course that suited him, I was happy to back him.  At 7/1, I am not.

Matt Kuchar almost won last week, but in 8 attempts here only has a distant 7th and 10th as representative of his best efforts around here.  We can leave him alone.

Jim Furyk is next in the betting and I have to have him onside this week.  Furyk's credentials at this tournament are clear - In addition to a win in 2010, Furyk has a pair of 2nd place finishes, a 4th, 10th, 15th and 21st last year to demonstrate his affinity for the track.  In addition, Furyk was just edged out by Luke Donald in a play-off at the Transitions and finished well to claim 11th at the Masters last week.  In form and with proven credentials here, 20/1 is a really nice price that should not be ignored.

Brian Davis gave us some nice returns at the Shell Houston and makes the staking plan again this week.  Davis has form here, finishing 21st last year and 2nd to Furyk the year before (after calling a penalty on himself to hand Furyk the title).  So, Davis can undoubtedly play the course.  Davis also has successive top four finishes on tour coming in to the event.  Last time out, he was 10th for driving accuracy and before that, 14th for greens.  If he can get both elements working together, Davis is likely to go very close this week.  Davis is showing some really consistent form right now and may give us a real run here.

Boo Weekley is a twice winner of this event in 2007 and 2008.  After a significant spell in the golfing doldrums, Weekley is playing very well again of late; his greatest Achilles heel, putting, has even shown signs of improvement.  Bubba featured well in Texas last time out.  9th for driving accuracy, 16th in greens hit and 31st for total putts that week, Bubba is playing nicely and may be just ready to challenge again at the scene of his only 2 wins on tour to date.

I looked long and hard at some players such as Van Pelt, Els, Molder and Cauley for the final spot in our staking plan, but simply had to settle upon Kris Blanks.  Blanks finished 69th here last year, but really found hid game in 2010, when 5th.   The thing I like most about Blanks are his recent stats and hence, apparent readiness to challenge.  I have already touched upon a player's tee to green game being critical.  Well, Blanks has been 22nd, 11th and 22nd for driving accuracy in his last 3 events and sits 21st for the season as a whole (Furyk is 1st, by the way).   In greens hit, Blanks in the last 3 events has been 32nd, 19th and 31st.  He sits 73rd on tour overall, but his recent form is better than that.  On a course where Blanks' less than stellar scrambling prowess will not be so sorely tested, we have a live runner.  A win this week may be a step too far, but the 50/1 place terms for the man 5th in 2010 and in very good tee to green form is simply massive.  Take the price and hopefully enjoy the value the price gives us come Sunday.

Regards

Dave